Crowds are down? Curious about the claims . . .

[Tony the Tigger]

You have invested a lot of effort and what appears to be a great deal of emotion in this lengthy but ultimately inconsequential twaddle. I know that I omitted to put my post was rhetorical so the hard of thinking could grasp that. But for the avoidance of doubt I don't really care. Simply passing comment that I simply don't believe the claimed discomfort. Though on reflection the mental state of corporate apologists is such that it may be true after all. My bad as you colonials are fond of saying.

Then next time please don't waste my time.

 

[Nubs70]

not about individual families.

Targeted marketing does exactly that. All your non cash purchases are recorded by firms such as Axciom who then sell your digital footprint to corporate marketing.

 

[Lucky]

It's bedtime for me, and I think this conversation has reached its conclusion. However, I would to sum up what actually happened here:

1. A person asked if anyone had converted 1980s tickets into 2016 dollars.
2. You made a sarcastic response that was ambiguous.
3. I did my best to answer the initial person's question and confirmed that you were being sarcastic.
4. You stated that almost everything in life exceeded the rate of inflation.
5. I explained that this was impossible based upon the definition of the inflation calculation.
6. You responded with a few specific items that presumably (I didn't run the numbers) exceed the rate of inflation.
7. I pointed out that that proved nothing and my statement stands.
8. You brought in another conversation with someone else about extrapolating inflation to explain a loss of of customers by Disney.

It's kind of a great example of why discussions tend to go nowhere and people talk past each other. In an effort to answer someone's honest question, we got to witness a great round of windmill tilting with a sprinkling of logical fallacies for good measure.

It's also a great example of why I have her on ignore.

 

[SorcererMC]

It is dead for a summer night

'The Summer Awakens and Hits Snooze'
#LoweredExpectations

 

[SorcererMC]

Since 9/11, it's been pretty bad. Ticket prices are up, personal income gains have been weak, and theme park investment is down.

Truth. Two weak recoveries (from 2002 and 2008 recessions) and consumer confidence still hasn't quite gone back up to pre-9/11 levels. That's 15 years of economic malaise for most people (but not all).

Good luck, digital natives!

 

[SorcererMC]

Targeted marketing does exactly that. All your non cash purchases are recorded by firms such as Axciom who then sell your digital footprint to corporate marketing.

Is this not the true goal of MyMagic+, from a business perspective? A mountain of data on WDW visitors spending behavior....probably why investors were asking about the return on investment. Whether or not MyMagic+ is capable of that, I wouldn't know. Given all of the qualitative variables over the last month, it could become Disney's saving grace if they can adequately quantify what is happening and offer some clear explanation rather than a vague one.

 

[Pumbas Nakasak]

Then next time please don't waste my time.

are you on? You respond to a post but some how it's my fault?. I could have sworn on this instance I even quoted the post I was commenting about. You in your faux outrage steamed in. I have no problem with anyone saying their piece it's a message board after all, I just find it something to ponder that at a time when long term posters start to question WDW operations there is a spate of arrivals who all seem to be prolific in posting the uncritical unquestioning line.
Just an opinion of course but that's as good as a fact.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

Is this not the true goal of MyMagic+, from a business perspective? A mountain of data on WDW visitors spending behavior....probably why investors were asking about the return on investment. Whether or not MyMagic+ is capable of that, I wouldn't know. Given all of the qualitative variables over the last month, it could become Disney's saving grace if they can adequately quantify what is happening and offer some clear explanation rather than a vague one.

Umm, Disney already had a mountain of data of guests spending whenever a person either charged to the room or used a CC. Nothing has changed except to make it a bit more convenient for resort guests to pay for purchases. Off-site guests can't use MBs to pay, and of course, cash paying customers aren't tracked. So essentially, nothing has changed from the old system to the MB system.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Targeted marketing does exactly that. All your non cash purchases are recorded by firms such as Axciom who then sell your digital footprint to corporate marketing.

And this has zero relevance to a poster on a Disney message board reading a Wikipedia page about Bob Iger's father and determining what kind of vacation he could afford in 1960.

 

[alphac2005]

Truth. Two weak recoveries (from 2002 and 2008 recessions) and consumer confidence still hasn't quite gone back up to pre-9/11 levels. That's 15 years of economic malaise for most people (but not all).

Good luck, digital natives!

Since this is in my realm, I'll add in two cents. Comparing consumer confidence numbers to be pre-9/11, isn't quite accurate as the numbers had been averaging down since 2000 and 1998-2000 were outside of historical norms, as they were actually peak numbers. U.S. consumer confidence numbers are right now (and have been for the past two years) bumping up to what are the standard historical average highs. Our company watches these numbers along with others quite closely and consumer behavior is mirroring other times of highs virtually the same as the corresponding numbers during the past two decades.

When history is written about the '08 recovery considering it to be weak will most likely not be the headline. The recovery not only in historical terms rapidly pulled out of a decent into the abyss, but it also occurred during a major transitory time in our nation's history. The changes in the economy over the past decade are as major as the industrial revolution for employees and some have been trapped because of the rapidly changing nature of jobs and skill-sets. Look at the claim about manufacturing, bring the jobs and factories back home. The same as in Britain. The truth of the matter is that we've had a significant increase in manufacturing over the past five years and it continues to grow, but the volume of jobs don't return with the plants because they're being filled with automation, robotics, and much smaller human staff.

It looks to be an ushering in of a new norm with an advanced economy with 2-3% annual GDP, which to the market set is a "weak" or failing economic run, but it reality, it's quite healthy. When our corporations and Congress come to grips with the reality of where GDP growth is trending long-term, then maybe they'll finally deal with the mountain of issues confronting the country.

Sorry about going off the rails, but this stuff is very important to my job, and I have to stay up on everything.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Why?

You engaged me. You asked "Why?" in response to my comment to someone else:

"Tony the Tigger said: ↑
There's nothing "clear" about it. You are guessing, period.

These posts are cringe-worthy to me. You don't know the circumstances, means, or mindset of the family beyond what you can google, which is very presumptuous."

I responded to your "why" with the explanation that I thought my post was self-evident - and it was, because I already stated why if you read that post.

You snarkily responded again that apparently it was not clear to you, which prompted me to go into further detail for your benefit and no other reason. I even commented that I had no intention of investing so much into such a small topic. Then you responded by dismissing that effort.

Having no desire to repeat such nonsense and having taken zero value from our interaction, I asked you not to bother in the future.

Now you come back yet again with some critical drivel and misstatement of events.

 

[SorcererMC]

Umm, Disney already had a mountain of data of guests spending whenever a person either charged to the room or used a CC. Nothing has changed except to make it a bit more convenient for resort guests to pay for purchases. Off-site guests can't use MBs to pay, and of course, cash paying customers aren't tracked. So essentially, nothing has changed from the old system to the MB system.

What I'm trying to get at is - what metrics is Disney using now. to identify what the consumer spend is across each of their consumer segments. The need to do so has not changed, but their ability to measure potentially has. They need to demonstrate it b/c Wall St is watching.

 

[Nubs70]

Is this not the true goal of MyMagic+, from a business perspective? A mountain of data on WDW visitors spending behavior....probably why investors were asking about the return on investment. Whether or not MyMagic+ is capable of that, I wouldn't know. Given all of the qualitative variables over the last month, it could become Disney's saving grace if they can adequately quantify what is happening and offer some clear explanation rather than a vague one.

On a broad conceptual scale, yes. However, I see MM+ too limited geographically as it only applied to WDW. The benefit to WDW was a much needed upgrade to backoffice ERP and supply chain efficiencies. From the customer experience, there is a minor improvement in experience in park but is outweighed by increased frustration in preplanning. The biggest negative for the is the ease with the amount of money is spent on impulse purchases. Increased guest spending is the true goal of MM+.

Combine increased prices with the increasingly vague in park spending results in a vacation that can easily become very expensive without spending dicipline. I believe this us turning off return customers.

 

[SorcererMC]

Since this is in my realm, I'll add in two cents. Comparing consumer confidence numbers to be pre-9/11, isn't quite accurate as the numbers had been averaging down since 2000 and 1998-2000 were outside of historical norms, as they were actually peak numbers. U.S. consumer confidence numbers are right now (and have been for the past two years) bumping up to what are the standard historical average highs. Our company watches these numbers along with others quite closely and consumer behavior is mirroring other times of highs virtually the same as the corresponding numbers during the past two decades.

When history is written about the '08 recovery considering it to be weak will most likely not be the headline. The recovery not only in historical terms rapidly pulled out of a decent into the abyss, but it also occurred during a major transitory time in our nation's history. The changes in the economy over the past decade are as major as the industrial revolution for employees and some have been trapped because of the rapidly changing nature of jobs and skill-sets. Look at the claim about manufacturing, bring the jobs and factories back home. The same as in Britain. The truth of the matter is that we've had a significant increase in manufacturing over the past five years and it continues to grow, but the volume of jobs don't return with the plants because they're being filled with automation, robotics, and much smaller human staff.

It looks to be an ushering in of a new norm with an advanced economy with 2-3% annual GDP, which to the market set is a "weak" or failing economic run, but it reality, it's quite healthy. When our corporations and Congress come to grips with the reality of where GDP growth is trending long-term, then maybe they'll finally deal with the mountain of issues confronting the country.

Sorry about going off the rails, but this stuff is very important to my job, and I have to stay up on everything.

I appreciate you writing this up, I wasn't going to bother. I more or less concur with your assessment. Agreed on consumer confidence being at 'standard historical avg high'. My take on the current US economic context is that - it is far from 'robust'. And yes, fiscal policy is in need of an overhaul b/c of the current state of monetary policy (PSA: get out and vote everyone!). I appreciate your optimism.

 

[SorcererMC]

And this has zero relevance to a poster on a Disney message board reading a Wikipedia page about Bob Iger's father and determining what kind of vacation he could afford in 1960.

Not going there for a 3rd time. Pass.

 

[The Mom]

I think we have pretty much covered the "Crowds are down due to affordability" argument.

Any word on whether things have picked up, and any other than economics hypotheses on why it might be less crowded this summer?

And I think we can stop the arguments, thank you very much.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

What I'm trying to get at is - what metrics is Disney using now. to identify what the consumer spend is across each of their consumer segments. The need to do so has not changed, but their ability to measure potentially has. They need to demonstrate it b/c Wall St is watching.

I agree that the need to do so hasn't changed, but neither has their ability. Only resort guests with MBs can use them to charge, just like the KttK cards in the past. No change except what method - card or MB - is used to charge.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I appreciate you writing this up, I wasn't going to bother. I more or less concur with your assessment. Agreed on consumer confidence being at 'standard historical avg high'. My take on the current US economic context is that - it is far from 'robust'. And yes, fiscal policy is in need of an overhaul b/c of the current state of monetary policy (PSA: get out and vote everyone!). I appreciate your optimism.

I don't see how it could be expected to be "robust" considering the deep and sudden plunge which had very good reasons for plunging.

I would have been more concerned that a more robust recovery would have just been another bubble being created.

Sometimes slow and steady wins the race. The recovery has been nothing if not incredibly steady. It (and the market) could have been very volatile for years with wild swings in either direction.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Not going there for a 3rd time. Pass.

Fabulous!

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I think we have pretty much covered the "Crowds are down due to affordability" argument.

Any word on whether things have picked up, and any other than economics hypotheses on why it might be less crowded this summer?

And I think we can stop the arguments, thank you very much.

Nothing that hasn't been said already: presuming fewer AP's overall, new AP's with blackout dates, and specifically to the 4th, probably decreased local attendance due to potential safety issues. Side hypothesis: if locals make up a significant portion of daily traffic, and if they often go for lunch or dinner, etc., and reports are the food portions have been cut back, they may not see the value when it's much easier to pop over to International Drive or local places without all the parking hullaballoo. (I'm hoping to not notice this when we go in the Fall, but hoping the crowd levels are still down!)