Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[JoeCamel]

Maybe I’m being optimistically naive but until a variant breaks immunity (whether natural or vaccine based) I’m going to continue to trust it. (What other choice do we have?) I got my booster less than 2 weeks ago, in my mind I’m good for at least six more months.

I'm boosted too so I feel fairly protected but I am in an area where the numbers are exploding. It has a low vax rate and most around here act like there is nothing going on. Including business and government offices. People coughing and clearing their throats, high smoking rate so hard to tell but the numbers are up 200% the last two weeks. Coming from Florida the absolute numbers are not huge but the rate of change (not using that delta word here) is like January in Florida.
So I wear ummm - pants everytime I enter a business and I do wear it in restaurants.
I do what I can and will continue to do so until. We have been through too much and thought we were on the downhill slide before only to find us back with a new player. I want it over but can see the next few years SARS-COVID-19 will be circulating around the world and will be in the headlines so I am resigned to do what I can for as long as it takes.
I wish this was more like hemorrhagic fever, that scares the beejezzus out of people and they do what ever it takes to kill it.

 

[MOUSEGIRL]

Orange county Florida is back in the moderate level according to the cdc website

Orange County, Florida​

State Health Departmentexternal icon

7-day Metrics | 7-day Percent Change
Community Transmission Moderate Unvaccinated people in Orange County, Florida should wear a mask in public, indoor settings. Mask requirements might vary from place to place. Make sure you follow local laws, rules, regulations or guidance. How is community transmission calculated? December 7, 2021
Cases	587
Case Rate per 100k	42.13
% Positivity	3.88%
Deaths	<10
% of population ≥ 12 years of age fully vaccinated	74.2%
New Hospital Admissions	113

 

[hopemax]

I thought the exact same thing.

I googled it and the simple version is it appears Omicron may be as much as 10x more resistant to the vaccines antibodies than Delta was (not 10x resistance to the vaccine, just the antibodies) it didn’t mention anything about mild vs severe cases though, the report was also based on 12 double vaccinated people (who weren’t boosted) so it’s a very early report based on a small sample size.

Does that sound about right hopemax? this is beyond my comprehension.

MSN

www.msn.com

Honestly, it’s above mine. Which is why I follow expert people on Twitter. The huge drop in neutralization was “predictable” based on the early case numbers. So they are disappointed but not freaking out because they understand the other parts of the immunity equation. They are actually happy it’s not worse than 40x. So that’s what I hope I am parroting here, for those who find all the details less fascinating than I do.

But the less nuanced media and certainly social media is going to have a field day mentioning 40x drop in headlines.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Honestly, it’s above mine. Which is why I follow expert people on Twitter. The huge drop in neutralization was “predictable” based on the early case numbers. So they are disappointed but not freaking out because they understand the other parts of the immunity equation. They are actually happy it’s not worse than 40x. So that’s what I hope I am parroting here, for those who find all the details less fascinating than I do.

But the less nuanced media and certainly social media is going to have a field day mentioning 40x drop in headlines.

Thank you, I think I’ve read more about cells in the last year than I did in all my school courses (and EMT certification) but it’s still a bit mind boggling.

 

[hopemax]

Thank you, I think I’ve read more about cells in the last year than I did in all my school courses (and EMT certification) but it’s still a bit mind boggling.

That’s what I said way upthread. I haven’t learned this much since college. I was just in engineering, so the math and how pieces in complex systems fit together, I can understand to some extent. But the biology… nope. Not since Freshman in high school

 

[DisneyFan32]

I'm boosted too so I feel fairly protected but I am in an area where the numbers are exploding. It has a low vax rate and most around here act like there is nothing going on. Including business and government offices. People coughing and clearing their throats, high smoking rate so hard to tell but the numbers are up 200% the last two weeks. Coming from Florida the absolute numbers are not huge but the rate of change (not using that delta word here) is like January in Florida.
So I wear ummm - pants everytime I enter a business and I do wear it in restaurants.
I do what I can and will continue to do so until. We have been through too much and thought we were on the downhill slide before only to find us back with a new player. I want it over but can see the next few years SARS-COVID-19 will be circulating around the world and will be in the headlines so I am resigned to do what I can for as long as it takes.
I wish this was more like hemorrhagic fever, that scares the beejezzus out of people and they do what ever it takes to kill it.

Or next year it may be over sooner than next few years. The pandemic is almost over soon.

 

[lazyboy97o]

(not 10x resistance to the vaccine, just the antibodies)

What do you mean by “the vaccine”?

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

What do you mean by “the vaccine”?

The vaccines antibodies alone, not long term memory cells that formed as a result of the vaccine.

I found an article that can explain it better than I ever could.

Lasting immunity found after recovery from COVID-19

The immune systems of more than 95% of people who recovered from COVID-19 had durable memories of the virus up to eight months after infection.

www.nih.gov

 

[Heppenheimer]

I'm boosted too so I feel fairly protected but I am in an area where the numbers are exploding. It has a low vax rate and most around here act like there is nothing going on. Including business and government offices. People coughing and clearing their throats, high smoking rate so hard to tell but the numbers are up 200% the last two weeks. Coming from Florida the absolute numbers are not huge but the rate of change (not using that delta word here) is like January in Florida.
So I wear ummm - pants everytime I enter a business and I do wear it in restaurants.
I do what I can and will continue to do so until. We have been through too much and thought we were on the downhill slide before only to find us back with a new player. I want it over but can see the next few years SARS-COVID-19 will be circulating around the world and will be in the headlines so I am resigned to do what I can for as long as it takes.
I wish this was more like hemorrhagic fever, that scares the beejezzus out of people and they do what ever it takes to kill it.

Ironically, most causes of hemorrhagic fever aren't nearly as contagious.

Personal anecdote that illustrates the numbers. On my first tour to Afghanistan, we recieved a medevac call from an outlying FOB to our aid station (not an uncommon occurence). The one word summary we had coming in was "diarrhea". Which seemed strange. Why are they going to the trouble to fly in a case of diarrhea?

Well, when that poor soldier came in the door, we could see why. He was severely ill and almost comatose. As we worked on him, one of my medics asked me "Sir, should he be bleeding in his mouth and nose like that?" Oh, crap!!!

We quickly sent him next dooe to the hospital and he went out on the next flight to Landstuhl. The diagnosis and prognosis came back a few days later- he died of Congo-Crimea hemorrhagic fever. None of us wore any more PPE than gloves, but fortunately, we didn't get sick.

As nasty as a hemorrhagic fever can be, it usually doesn't reach the hemorrhagic stage until the patient is severely ill, in which case the bleeding from every oriface will probably mostly occur in a hospital.

So, given how nasty severe COVID can be, most of the population never comes face-to-face with the reality of the disease. In the current climate, I think even the deniers would minimize a pandemic of hemorrhagic fever until they saw their own bloody bowel movement or red urine for themselves.

 

[JoeCamel]

Ironically, most causes of hemorrhagic fever aren't nearly as contagious.

Personal anecdote that illustrates the numbers. On my first tour to Afghanistan, we recieved a medevac call from an outlying FOB to our aid station (not an uncommon occurence). The one word summary we had coming in was "diarrhea". Which seemed strange. Why are they going to the trouble to fly in a case of diarrhea?

Well, when that poor soldier came in the door, we could see why. He was severely ill and almost comatose. As we worked on him, one of my medics asked me "Sir, should he be bleeding in his mouth and nose like that?" Oh, crap!!!

We quickly sent him next dooe to the hospital and he went out on the next flight to Landstuhl. The diagnosis and prognosis came back a few days later- he died of Congo-Crimea hemorrhagic fever. None of us wore any more PPE than gloves, but fortunately, we didn't get sick.

As nasty as a hemorrhagic fever can be, it usually doesn't reach the hemorrhagic stage until the patient is severely ill, in which case the bleeding from every oriface will probably mostly occur in a hospital.

So, given how nasty severe COVID can be, most of the population never comes face-to-face with the reality of the disease. In the current climate, I think even the deniers would minimize a pandemic of hemorrhagic fever until they saw their own bloody bowel movement or red urine for themselves.

But the name, Covid, needs better marketing

 

[Lilofan]

Omicron is going to infect many people, and pop positive tests if they are tested. But your immune system primed by vaccination or previous infection, still has your back against severe outcomes.

If you aren’t vaccinated and haven’t got sick from COVID before… jury is still out.

Omicron is getting more and more to roll up their sleeves. FL today is reporting a first omicron case in the VA hospital in Tampa.

 

[Lilofan]

Ironically, most causes of hemorrhagic fever aren't nearly as contagious.

Personal anecdote that illustrates the numbers. On my first tour to Afghanistan, we recieved a medevac call from an outlying FOB to our aid station (not an uncommon occurence). The one word summary we had coming in was "diarrhea". Which seemed strange. Why are they going to the trouble to fly in a case of diarrhea?

Well, when that poor soldier came in the door, we could see why. He was severely ill and almost comatose. As we worked on him, one of my medics asked me "Sir, should he be bleeding in his mouth and nose like that?" Oh, crap!!!

We quickly sent him next dooe to the hospital and he went out on the next flight to Landstuhl. The diagnosis and prognosis came back a few days later- he died of Congo-Crimea hemorrhagic fever. None of us wore any more PPE than gloves, but fortunately, we didn't get sick.

As nasty as a hemorrhagic fever can be, it usually doesn't reach the hemorrhagic stage until the patient is severely ill, in which case the bleeding from every oriface will probably mostly occur in a hospital.

So, given how nasty severe COVID can be, most of the population never comes face-to-face with the reality of the disease. In the current climate, I think even the deniers would minimize a pandemic of hemorrhagic fever until they saw their own bloody bowel movement or red urine for themselves.

That Congo fever is caused by infected ticks . If the soldier was sprayed and protected by DEET during deployment, he perhaps could still be alive.

 

[Heppenheimer]

That Congo fever is partly caused by ticks . Did our military think about supplying our troops to spray DEET on their exposed skin or has that been done?

They supply it, and the bases usually get sprayed periodically.

That doesn't mean every soldier will properly apply their repellent every single day for a year-long deployment.

Considering the low compliance with the malaria prophylaxis pills soldiers are supposed to take daily, I wouldn't be surprised if some soldiers never used the repellent.

 

[Chi84]

Surgeon general warns of emerging youth mental health crisis in rare public advisory — Los Angeles Times

The advisory is to call attention to a "youth mental health crisis" and recommend resources to call on and actions to take.

apple.news

Not sure if anyone posted this yet but it’s quite disheartening.

 

[MisterPenguin]

That Congo fever is caused by infected ticks . If the soldier was sprayed and protected by DEET during deployment, he perhaps could still be alive.

We have the means now to eradicate all parasitic spaces that feed on mammal and spread disease. Let's do this.

 

[Danissmart]

And speaking of Christmas parties:

No 10 staff joke in leaked recording about Christmas party they later denied | ITV News

ITV News has obtained a leaked video showing Downing Street staff laughing about a party which was allegedly held in Number 10 last Christmas. | ITV National News

www.itv.com

Disgraceful liars and hypocrites.

True. But also, makes you wonder…

 

[Danissmart]

Surgeon general warns of emerging youth mental health crisis in rare public advisory — Los Angeles Times

The advisory is to call attention to a "youth mental health crisis" and recommend resources to call on and actions to take.

apple.news

Not sure if anyone posted this yet but it’s quite disheartening.

I have been repeatedly assured that “kids are resilient.”

 

[JoeCamel]

They supply it, and the bases usually get sprayed periodically.

That doesn't mean every soldier will properly apply their repellent every single day for a year-long deployment.

Considering the low compliance with the malaria prophylaxis pills soldiers are supposed to take daily, I wouldn't be surprised if some soldiers never used the repellent.

DEET sux

 

[hopemax]

Another example of who I am following on Twitter. Although he is Austrian, (and runs a virology lab in NYC at Mount Sinai) so half of his tweets are in German. Which is fine for @Heppenheimer . This thread is English though.



A touch of good news for the worrisome math. Reviewing some of the analysis from before, posted by Trevor Bedford if I am reading this right…With immune escape of 40x, the base R0 for Omicron may work out to be closer to Delta than the early reports of Rt and worry about the level of immune escape suggested. It may not be significantly more transmissible as feared. “Similar to Delta R0” is still not good thing for an Omicron wave. Hospitals still got full with Delta, but “greater R0 than Delta” would be “more bad” for healthcare resources.

However, if estimated population immunity is lower then higher R0 is still on the table.

 

[LittleBuford]

True. But also, makes you wonder…

Wonder what?