Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[JohnD]

Here’s some good stats on both Flu and Corona

COVID-19 vs. the Flu

www.hopkinsmedicine.org

Not “celebrating” the flu by any means but let’s keep things in perspective:

Infections
COVID-19: Approximately 113,579 cases worldwide; 607 cases in the U.S. as of Mar. 9, 2020.

Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

Deaths
COVID-19: Approximately 3,995 deaths reported worldwide; 22 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 9, 2020.

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

 

[TheGuyThatMakesSwords]

So if we’re taking bets, what date does WDW close?

May 1, 2020. AFTER the cash influx from Easter, and Spring Break....

 

[Lilofan]

I think you also have to look at the opportunity costs so to speak. If all the resources are put into doctors and practitioners testing for corona then all the other ailments and diseases have less attention and people will die from that lack of attention and treatment. Italy's healthcare system is on the verge of collapse.

There are a number of American citizens living and working in Italy.

 

[GoofGoof]

Not “celebrating” the flu by any means but let’s keep things in perspective:

Infections
COVID-19: Approximately 113,579 cases worldwide; 607 cases in the U.S. as of Mar. 9, 2020.

Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

Deaths
COVID-19: Approximately 3,995 deaths reported worldwide; 22 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 9, 2020.

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

Flu is a killer. No doubt about it. Corona has a higher mortality rate early on but I think that a big factor is that higher risk people generally get flu shots and so are much less likely to die. Obviously not a guarantee to work but we’re than nothing.

Looking at stats from S Korea the mortality rate of Corona is much lower there then China. Is that due to more testing leading to more overall known cases or better healthcare or some other factor? Not known yet. As we ramp up testing in the US it’s likely the number of cases of Corona will increase dramatically but it’s also likely that the mortality rate will drop. Right now the bulk of known cases have more serious symptoms so higher death rate.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think you also have to look at the opportunity costs so to speak. If all the resources are put into doctors and practitioners testing for corona then all the other ailments and diseases have less attention and people will die from that lack of attention and treatment. Italy's healthcare system is on the verge of collapse.

On a positive note there has been an upswing in people getting flu shots and practicing better hygiene in general (or at least being encouraged to) due to this pandemic. Lack of hospital beds and respirators could become a problem though.

 

[flutas]

I said “US” and you cited world wide. You’re mixing apples and oranges. The US has 624 cases of COVID 19. That’s cases not deaths. Meanwhile flu DEATHS are in the 10s of thousands in the US.

Can't read the second part huh?...

 

[WEDway Inc & Company LLC]

I think it will happen within the next month.
Final 4 is the next big tent pole event in Atlanta on April 5th. If that gets cancelled it will open the flood gates to everything getting cancelled in April. I think WDW is hoping to try to hold out till then so they can point to well the Final 4 cancelled so . . . but events may force them to accelerate closure.

WDW isn’t closing. No matter what.

 

[flutas]

You need to put a caveat that the denominator is "confirmed cases." Outside of South Korea where the mortality and serious/critical illness rate is MUCH lower, no country has done enough testing to find a significant number of the mild or asymptomatic cases. South Korea has and their fatality rate is currently at 0.7%, far lower than the word as a whole (and this is on 7,478 confirmed cases, the most outside of China and Italy).

"Let's keep picking one country to use as a basis for the whole world, it's not like viruses can affect different regions and people differently right!!"

The US and most other countries still have a 3.X% death rate. Stop cherry picking one countries data as gospel while dismissing the entirety of the rest of the world.

 

[JohnD]

On a positive note there has been an upswing in people getting flu shots and practicing better hygiene in general (or at least being encouraged to) due to this pandemic. Lack of hospital beds and respirators could become a problem though.

True. Using my church as a micro example, with flu stats being such as they are you’d think we would be using hand sanitizer every winter, do special precautions for communion (I’ll spare you the details), etc. Nope. Only during COVID 19.

 

[flutas]

Now that’s a big deal.

You realize if this infects 33% of the world it's on track to kill 99 million right? And that's not even counting how many would die from secondary causes due to lack of hospital care being available.

 

[celluloid]

Perception is reality

The future I dream of definitely isn’t your typical CP ambitions. I actually want to be a zookeeper at DAK. But I do get where you’re coming from and I’ve heard lots of horror stories...but for someone in my field Disney is at the top of the chain when it comes to zoos and conservation work.

Sea World would be another great option as well as Clearwater Aquarium in terms of rescue and conservation. It is a challenging but rewarding endavuer!

 

[ImperfectPixie]

"Let's keep picking one country to use as a basis for the whole world, it's not like viruses can affect different regions and people differently right!!"

The US and most other countries still have a 3.X% death rate. Stop cherry picking one countries data as gospel while dismissing the entirety of the rest of the world.

Pot meet kettle.

South Korea is the best REAL numbers we have to go by because they are doing mass testing.

 

[GoofGoof]

True. Using my church as a micro example, with flu stats being such as they are you’d think we would be using hand sanitizer every winter, do special precautions for communion (I’ll spare you the details), etc. Nope. Only during COVID 19.

I’m just happy some of the slobs I work with started washing their hands before leaving the bathroom. Small silver lining to an otherwise dismal worldwide problem.

 

[DisneyCane]

I think it will happen within the next month.
Final 4 is the next big tent pole event in Atlanta on April 5th. If that gets cancelled it will open the flood gates to everything getting cancelled in April. I think WDW is hoping to try to hold out till then so they can point to well the Final 4 cancelled so . . . but events may force them to accelerate closure.

The only ways WDW would close would either be:

a) The outbreak sickens too many CMs and they don't have enough people available to operate.
b) So many people cancel trips (either due to panic or travel restrictions) that they lose a significant amount operating each day

WDW would close if it was done voluntarily by Disney. It would be VERY difficult, if not impossible, for the government to force a private business to close. They'd have to try an end around like banning vehicular travel which would also be extremely difficult to impose.

Banning crowds from attending sporting events and/or concerts can probably be accomplished with the (too great) authority given to fire marshals. They can just rule that more than X number of people can't enter a building. I don't think this would be justifiable in a theme park setting where a large percentage of the customers are outdoors.

 

[GoofGoof]

Pot meet kettle.

South Korea is the best REAL numbers we have to go by because they are doing mass testing.

I am hopeful that S Korea ends up being similar to how things play out in a lot of other places. Its always tricky getting good data from China and because they were caught off guard being an unfortunate “first mover” its reasonable to think things could be better elsewhere.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The future I dream of definitely isn’t your typical CP ambitions. I actually want to be a zookeeper at DAK. But I do get where you’re coming from and I’ve heard lots of horror stories...but for someone in my field Disney is at the top of the chain when it comes to zoos and conservation work.

Well that sounds better...but don’t overestimate what that couple months is gonna do for you...

Best bet is to see it for what it always has been: fatigue in the sun and fluid exchange

 

[GoofGoof]

The only ways WDW would close would either be:

a) The outbreak sickens too many CMs and they don't have enough people available to operate.
b) So many people cancel trips (either due to panic or travel restrictions) that they lose a significant amount operating each day

WDW would close if it was done voluntarily by Disney. It would be VERY difficult, if not impossible, for the government to force a private business to close. They'd have to try an end around like banning vehicular travel which would also be extremely difficult to impose.

Banning crowds from attending sporting events and/or concerts can probably be accomplished with the (too great) authority given to fire marshals. They can just rule that more than X number of people can't enter a building. I don't think this would be justifiable in a theme park setting where a large percentage of the customers are outdoors.

The government probably has more pull over sports leagues who rely on taxpayer funding of stadiums and exemption from monopoly status. I still think a long term ban on people at sporting events is a tough sell for both business and fans. More likely a short term shut down followed by a change in protocols to make people more comfortable going.

For a theme park like Disney the government would also have to ban parks, beaches, zoos, arcades, really anywhere people gather in numbers. The economic impact would be overwhelming and would be impractical to enforce. Probably just a suggestion people avoid large public gatherings if they in a high risk group.

 

[MuteSuperstar]

Banning crowds from attending sporting events and/or concerts can probably be accomplished with the (too great) authority given to fire marshals. They can just rule that more than X number of people can't enter a building.

Pearl Jam just cancelled the first leg of their tour (Canada and US).

 

[flutas]

Pot meet kettle.

South Korea is the best REAL numbers we have to go by because they are doing mass testing.

Ah yes "let's use all the world's data" is the same as "lalalalalala I'm ignoring the rest of the world for this one country I can't hear you"

 

[DisneyCane]

You realize if this infects 33% of the world it's on track to kill 99 million right? And that's not even counting how many would die from secondary causes due to lack of hospital care being available.

Ummm, no. Stop ignoring the data from South Korea which is the most accurate available for total number of infected in a given population. It might kill 25 million in your scenario. That also assumes that none of the treatments being tested do anything to lower the mortality rate. As crass as it is to say, 25 million is only 0.33% of the population. Even your high estimate is only 1.3% of the population.

The Spanish flu of 1918 killed between 0.9% and 2.7% of the worldwide population (possibly even more depending on the study estimates) and the world kept turning and life went on for the other 97% of the population. In fact, it wasn't that long afterwards when the "roaring 20s" began.