Will Disneyland USA suffer? ALL Of Disney's Theme Parks Now Closed - Reopening Dates Unknown

Darkbeer1

Darkbeer1

Well-Known Member
>>The OC Health Care Agency will join other California counties that have had a local, positive case of novel coronavirus — or COVID-19 — in increasing our local surveillance. As part of this surveillance, Orange County residents who present to some hospitals here with flu symptoms and are tested for influenza may also be tested for novel coronavirus, if they give consent. This will help the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention gather more data about potential spread of this new virus and better inform their response.<<

www.cdc.gov

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov
 
Darkbeer1

Darkbeer1

Well-Known Member
www.ocregister.com

Orange County leaders declare local health emergency in response to coronavirus

They urged residents not to become alarmed as there is no current local outbreak. The emergency declaration will allow the county to be “more nimble and flexible” in responding.
www.ocregister.com www.ocregister.com

>>Orange County officials on Wednesday, Feb. 26, declared a local health emergency in response to coronavirus, but they urged residents not to become alarmed as there is no current local outbreak.


There has only been one confirmed case of the virus – also known as COVID-19 – in Orange County, and Orange County Supervisor Andrew Do said that person has since recovered.


Even without local cases of illness, officials said declaring an emergency will help the county better prepare for what the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention described on Tuesday as the “community spread” of coronavirus.


“This is a rapidly evolving situation,” County Health Officer Nichole Quick said, adding that the emergency declaration will allow the county to be “more nimble and flexible” in responding.

Late Wednesday, the CDC reported what may be the first case of “community transmission” of the virus, according to a news release from the California Department of Public Health. A person in Solano County is getting medical care after testing positive for COVID-19, and “had no known exposure to the virus through travel or close contact with a known infected individual,” the release said.


Quick also said some Orange County hospitals will begin testing patients with flu-like symptoms for coronavirus. The testing comes at the request of the CDC, which is seeking to increase monitoring across the country, Quick said. She didn’t immediately have details on which hospitals or how many would administer coronavirus tests.


Elsewhere in the state, San Diego County and the city of San Francisco also have declared local emergencies in relation to the virus.<<
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Some fabulous information here from both Darkbeer and @DrAlice!

But I will direct this question to @DrAlice, if she doesn't mind providing diagnosis off the clock...

Doctor, is there any reason to think this Coronavirus is any more virulent or deadly than any previous serious flu outbreak? Maybe I've let my advancing years buffer me from panic, but I don't see what the big deal is here?

I've had the flu before, and it's crummy, but I remember in 1968 that I got sick when I was in the service and a Corpsman flagged me as potentially having the Hong Kong Flu, and that earned me a week off my feet in the infirmary watching a 12 inch black and white TV set all day, which back then was heaven! I survived. And in the intervening 50 years I've had the flu a bunch of other times, and spent days in bed miserable and achy, but I survived. And on the positive side I'd always lose a few pounds and look better for it. :cool:

So, let's assume this Wuhan Coronavirus sweeps the USA. Let's assume millions of Americans come down with it and spend days in bed nursing shots of Theraflu and Nyquil. And some Americans may die of it. But if I am not a smoker, if I am not 80 years old or older, if I have no underlying health issues like morbid obesity or Diabetes or chronic immune problems, would I stand more than a miniscule chance of dying because of this flu? Or would I just catch the flu and be out of commission for a week?
 
BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
TP2000 said:
Some fabulous information here from both Darkbeer and @DrAlice!

But I will direct this question to @DrAlice, if she doesn't mind providing diagnosis off the clock...

Doctor, is there any reason to think this Coronavirus is any more virulent or deadly than any previous serious flu outbreak? Maybe I've let my advancing years buffer me from panic, but I don't see what the big deal is here?

I've had the flu before, and it's crummy, but I remember in 1968 that I got sick when I was in the service and a Corpsman flagged me as potentially having the Hong Kong Flu, and that earned me a week off my feet in the infirmary watching a 12 inch black and white TV set all day, which back then was heaven! I survived. And in the intervening 50 years I've had the flu a bunch of other times, and spent days in bed miserable and achy, but I survived. And on the positive side I'd always lose a few pounds and look better for it. :cool:

So, let's assume this Wuhan Coronavirus sweeps the USA. Let's assume millions of Americans come down with it and spend days in bed nursing shots of Theraflu and Nyquil. And some Americans may die of it. But if I am not a smoker, if I am not 80 years old or older, if I have no underlying health issues like morbid obesity or Diabetes or chronic immune problems, would I stand more than a miniscule chance of dying because of this flu? Or would I just catch the flu and be out of commission for a week?
Click to expand...

Nope, which is precisely a strong reason it’s sensationalism. You are also far more likely this season to succumb to the actual virus circulating in your community right now.

This isn’t seemingly SARS.

The difference being no latent immunity in the population, ‘effective’ treatment (Tamiflu isn’t the all that effective) and more importantly a vaccine. Which does have significant downstream consequences for the very young, elderly and immunocompromised.

But everyone in North America, who aren’t in that category, hand wringing about their safety... should have got a flu vaccine, but probably didn’t.
 
truecoat

truecoat

Well-Known Member
Here's a couple things about the Corona virus on why it's different than the flu.

The Fatality Rate is at least 2-3%. This is 20-30 times higher than the flu, which is around .1%

It can be transmitted without the infected showing any symptoms. This makes it much more difficult to control.

Roughly 20% of infections result in serious symptoms that require medical intervention. This is more than 10 times the hospitalization rate of the seasonal flu.

Symptoms from the virus can persist over a month compared to the seasonal flu where symptoms typically tend to clear after 5 days.

There is no vaccine as of yet.
 
D

DanielBB8

Well-Known Member
There was one case where a cured woman got the coronavirus right back. They would still be susceptible to spreading the virus. The worse case is the virus keeps spreading, thus epidemic. There's no real cure or vaccine.

You're more likely to die when you're old (over 60).

If you're in your 30 - 40s and under stress, you can die too.

Children are unlikely to die. They seem immune or get over it.
 
Phroobar

Phroobar

Well-Known Member
corona.thumb.jpg.24a78645ac2506803a5cc8ecec116a56.jpg

This is sad. I'd sure trust a doctor working out of his car.
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I'm still not sure why this particular Coronavirus is any different from all the other Coronavirus outbreaks over the past few decades? I'm of the opinion the death rate in China is higher than usual because over half the population are pack-a-day smokers living in horribly polluted Chinese cities with long-term impacts to their health and lung capacities.

Have we seen a death of a Westerner in a Western country yet? A country with low 21st century rates of smoking, with much cleaner air and environment, with a much better health care system like the USA or Western Europe? The death of a person who has healthy lungs not damaged by years of smoking Communist cigarettes and living in smoggy and dirty Chinese cities?

Maybe I'm just clueless, but this seems like a whole lot of panic and worry over the flu. I get the flu sometimes. You've probably had the flu. We are all still here to tell the tale of how we once got the flu.

But if you are into mass panic, go ahead and be my guest. Shut it all down! Panic! It's the flu! We are all going to die!

Or not.
 
DrAlice

DrAlice

Well-Known Member
@TP2000, I would echo EVERYTHING that @BrianLo said. Listen, it's cold and flu season. We are all exposed to many circulating viruses right now (fun fact: many cold viruses are coronaviruses too!). What you should do to prepare yourself for a possible COVID-19 outbreak is the SAME thing that everyone should be doing right now: wash your hands**, disinfect surfaces touched by multiple people, and cover your mouth when you cough or sneeze.

@truecoat is correct that based on the limited data we have now, this particular virus seems to be a tad worse than the seasonal flu, but it is nowhere near panic-level SARS, IMO. Having said that, the data is really incomplete right now. And if the mortality rates and hospitalization rates are based mostly on numbers coming out of China, then we also have to consider how pollution levels and smoking rates affect those numbers. Both of those things directly impact lung health and susceptibility to disease. So, is it concerning? Sure. Am I ready to lock myself in a hermetically-sealed bunker? Nope. Not yet. :)


** regular soap and water; sing Happy Birthday twice while scrubbing; avoid anti-bacterial soaps as they don't actually help to prevent infection and only select for antibiotic resistant bugs (but don't get me started on that train of thought or we'll be here all night)
 
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F

flutas

Well-Known Member
TP2000 said:
Have we seen a death of a Westerner in a Western country yet? A country with low 21st century rates of smoking, with much cleaner air and environment, with a much better health care system like the USA or Western Europe? The death of a person who has healthy lungs not damaged by years of smoking Communist cigarettes and living in smoggy and dirty Chinese cities?
Click to expand...

Outside of China the current death total is as follows

Italy - 17
South Korea - 13
Japan - 4
Iran - 26
France - 2
Philippines - 1
Diamond Princess (cruise ship docked in Japan) - 4

The notable deaths caused by the virus that I know of are both from Iran.
- 22 (or 23 depending on source) year old Elham Sheikhi. She was a player of Iran's national futsal team. [source]
- 25 year old Narges Khanalizadeh died. She was a nurse. [source]

Finding exact cases from other countries is proving difficult for me though.

Yes there will always be outliers for diseases like these. But saying "oh it only kills the elderly" is still such a massive statement. The US has a population of 14.3% (or about 46.5 million+) over the age of 65 (as of 2015). If the virus "only" killed 1% of that population that's still 467,000 deaths caused by the disease*.

*: Yes this is assuming every one in that age group caught the disease.
 
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DrAlice

DrAlice

Well-Known Member
So, back on topic-ish.....

We now have THREE Asian parks closed. Does this influence the choice of the next head of Disney Parks? I would suspect that Bob's Big Boy (aka Bob Jr.) would want another "axe man" type executive. Does the current financial situation give him a better chance to sell that idea to Big Bob and the Board?
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
DrAlice said:
@TP2000, I would echo EVERYTHING that @BrianLo said. Listen, it's cold and flu season. We are all exposed to many circulating viruses right now (fun fact: many cold viruses are coronaviruses too!). What you should do to prepare yourself for a possible COVID-19 outbreak is the SAME thing that everyone should be doing right now: wash your hands**, disinfect surfaces touched by multiple people, and cover your mouth when you cough or sneeze.
Click to expand...

Thank you, doctor! I really do appreciate it.

I heard tonight on the news that 80% of these cases so far result in symptoms that are simply like the common cold or the average flu. 15% deal with a bad flu. And the remaining 5% of the cases are more severe, and those are generally confined to those who are very elderly and fragile, those who have underlying bad health problems (morbid obesity, diabetes, etc.), or those with compromised immune systems (HIV, cancer patients). And those statistics are coming out of China where so many of the folks getting this flu are life-long smokers and living in very polluted cities with compromised lung capacity that can't handle a flu that impacts the lungs.

So with that, I'll just sit back and watch the Millennials freak out about this latest flu, if you don't mind. And I'll wash my hands a couple extra times each day, and use those sanitizing wipes on the shopping cart when I go down to my Ralph's Fresh Fare tomorrow.

Everyone else, carry on. Panic! Freak out! You're all going to die!
 

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