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Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
It’s only underperformed the market since 2021 when linear revenues started to collapse and investors, encouraged by Netflix for their own purposes, started focusing on streaming profitability.

Investors encouraged Netflix to spend money like no tomorrow and lose billions gaining over 200 million subs. After they reached profitability and saw the competition coming after them, Netflix convinced the market to focus on profitability so that their competitors wouldn’t have the same amount of investor support to follow in Netflix’s footsteps. Thankfully, Disney already has a tremendous and unrivaled library of content already and didn’t need to build it from the ground up like Netflix did.

I think the parks are better than they were 10 years ago. 10 years ago the latest major project was New Fantasyland after getting nothing at WDW since Everest back in 2006. They’re also better than a few years ago when Chapek was CEO. Disney’s movies were not great this past year or two, though I do think some were pretty good.

Two years of relatively weak films, mixed in with some good ones, is not a trend. Now, if the films next year are similarly poor, then I’ll have cause to be concerned.

Frankly, I haven’t taken a Disney cruise, but from what I can tell, the new ship looks like it has some pros and cons compared to the Dream and Fantasy. The theming on the Treasure is definitely more appealing to me than the Wish though.

The vast majority of the loss is due to the secular decline of their linear networks while in the midst of an aggressive and necessary pivot to streaming that has similarly burdened all of their competitors.

The company has the best ad technology in the business, over 200 million DTC subscribers, and incredibly compelling streaming products with Disney+, Hulu, and eventually the full DTC ESPN offering.
Disney stock is the same price now that it was in 2014, meanwhile the DJIA has more than doubled in that same time (17k to 37k) and the SP500 has also more than doubled (2k to 5k).

It’s been stagnant during one of the biggest stock booms in our lifetime, that’s pathetic.

D+ has potential, I don’t think we have the management team in place to capitalize on it though, all Igers done since he came back is cut budgets, cut staffing, and cut expenses all while raising prices on everything, that’s worked to prop up profit in the short term but is a losing strategy in the long term.
 

Stripes

Well-Known Member
It didn't underperform for that simple reason. The profitability of the company didn't recover, which is the bottom line. There were many reasons for that including the ones we've been discussing.
Profitability is recovering. Next year will see a huge increase.
Parks are not better than 10 years ago. I go to the parks 20-30 days/yr. They just aren't. From operations, to staff, to EPCOT being a construction zone, Genie+, etc. I just completely disagree.
My experiences at the parks beg to differ and so does the general public’s, as evidenced by their continued success and recent high levels of guest satisfaction.
Two years of weak films by your own admission is inexcusable.
Give me a break. I said relatively weak, as in relative to their films in the past decade. Disney has released a number of entertaining films in the past 2 years. Some creative misses are expected in this business.
The reason they've underperformed is because the management of the business has been bad and the profitability is down. Way down. I showed you the data.
I’m well aware that the company’s profitability is down at the moment. The decline in profitability is understandable and significant progress has been made to return the company to previous levels of profitability. For instance, free cash flow rose from $1.1 billion in FY22 to $4.9 billion in FY23. The company and analysts expect free cash flow to increase to around $8 billion in FY24, which would surpass FY15 and come close to levels in FY16 and FY17.
 

Stripes

Well-Known Member
Disney stock is the same price now that it was in 2014, meanwhile the DJIA has more than doubled in that same time (17k to 37k) and the SP500 has also more than doubled (2k to 5k).

It’s been stagnant during one of the biggest stock booms in our lifetime, that’s pathetic.

D+ has potential, I don’t think we have the management team in place to capitalize on it though, all Igers done since he came back is cut budgets, cut staffing, and cut expenses all while raising prices on everything, that’s worked to prop up profit in the short term but is a losing strategy in the long term.
He’s cut staffing in the linear networks and reduced wasteful spending on content nobody watches which allows the company to focus on quality. You‘ll have to wait until next year to see the results of the creative turnaround.

Disney was well ahead of the S&P until May 2021.
 

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
Profitability is recovering. Next year will see a huge increase.

My experiences at the parks beg to differ and so does the general public’s, as evidenced by their continued success and recent high levels of guest satisfaction.

Give me a break. I said relatively weak, as in relative to their films in the past decade. Disney has released a number of entertaining films in the past 2 years. Some creative misses are expected in this business.

I’m well aware that the company’s profitability is down at the moment. The decline in profitability is understandable and significant progress has been made to return the company to previous levels of profitability. For instance, free cash flow rose from $1.1 billion in FY22 to $4.9 billion in FY23. The company and analysts expect free cash flow to increase to around $8 billion in FY24, which would surpass FY15 and come close to levels in FY16 and FY17.
I mean, you're comparing FCF to 2015 and trumpeting being close to FY16 levels? That was 8 years ago bro. And that is about 30% more today due to inflation, so the $8B in 2016 need to be over $10B in constant currency just to be apples to apples.

FCF was also almost $10B in 2018, so they are going to be 20% below that, not accounting for inflation? *Slow clap.*

This company is trash and needs to improve a lot more. Your bar is too low. If they do $8B in FCF next year, the stock isn't recovering.

I like net income as a metric a lot better. What are you actually profiting? That chart I posted said it all. Until that's well over $10B/yr, I'm not holding my breath.

What films have you liked? Mermaid was a flop btw, so don't say that one.

Again, Wallstreet wouldn't care if Parks revenue doubled (just look, it has doubled and they haven't cared). They hate the business. Too capital intensive, too unpredictable, not a service, etc. It's valued probably 6-7X earnings.

You can say it's better all you want. I don't believe Disney's customer sat scores. The proof is people coming back over time. We'll see. Again, domestic parks already showed some softness in 2023. Disney has a large audience, so many people can get burned only to realize they won't be going back as often.
 
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Stripes

Well-Known Member
I mean, you're comparing FCF to 2015 and trumpeting being close to FY16 levels? That was 8 years ago bro. And that is about 30% more today due to inflation, so the $8B in 2016 need to be over $10B in constant currency just to be apples to apples.

FCF was also almost $10B in 2018, so they are going to be 20% below that, not accounting for inflation? *Slow clap.*

This company is trash and needs to improve a lot more. Your bar is too low. If they do $8B in FCF next year, the stock isn't recovering.
Obviously it has to go higher, but going from $1.1 billion to $8 billion in free cash flow in 2 years is certainly progress.

I asked you earlier what you would do right now if you were in charge of the company.
I like net income as a metric a lot better. What are you actually profiting? That chart I posted said it all. Until that's well over $10B/yr, I'm not holding my breath.
In my opinion, free cash flow is a better indicator of the health of the company. Bear in mind, this year the company took on nearly $4 billion in restructuring and impairment charges.
What films have you liked? Mermaid was a flop btw, so don't say that one.
I haven’t seen Mermaid. I don’t have much interest in the story.

I personally enjoyed Lightyear, Black Panther 2, Avatar 2, Guardians 3, Elemental, and The Creator.
The proof is people coming back over time. We'll see. Again, domestic parks already showed some softness in 2023. Disney has a large audience, so many people can get burned only to realize they won't be going back as often.
I have many colleagues that aren’t even big Disney fans going to the parks and they come back and tell me what a great time they had and how they can’t wait to go back.

I guess time will tell.

The bottom line is that streaming has to become profitable and become a growth engine for the company. Disney has the best hand in the industry to make that happen. And I have full confidence that it will happen.
 

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
Obviously it has to go higher, but going from $1.1 billion to $8 billion in free cash flow in 2 years is certainly progress.

I asked you earlier what you would do right now if you were in charge of the company.

In my opinion, free cash flow is a better indicator of the health of the company. Bear in mind, this year the company took on nearly $4 billion in restructuring and impairment charges.

I haven’t seen Mermaid. I don’t have much interest in the story.

I personally enjoyed Lightyear, Black Panther 2, Avatar 2, Guardians 3, Elemental, and The Creator.

I have many colleagues that aren’t even big Disney fans going to the parks and they come back and tell me what a great time they had and how they can’t wait to go back.

I guess time will tell.

The bottom line is that streaming has to become profitable and become a growth engine for the company. Disney has the best hand in the industry to make that happen. And I have full confidence that it will happen.
Still backwards over 5 years though, which is insane to think about. We are at least both long the stock. You because you want to be and me because I'm stubborn and don't see much I think has a ton of upside. If Disney can figure it out, they are absolutely undervalued which was original thesis. My issue is the management and crap in their content, but I think they'll either figure it out or an Elon type will shake things up.

I did answer the question in more detail earlier, but in a nutshell: I'd fire a lot of people, remove the board (I believe they are corrupt) remove politics from public business and content, cost cutting non profit spend, scale back Disney+ spend, likely raise prices at the expense of losing some customers, fire 50% at ESPN and refocus on sports content, and laser focus on operations/running the business including making employees happier.

How was your Xmas?
 
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Stripes

Well-Known Member
I’d fire a lot of people, remove the board (I believe they are corrupt) remove politics from public business and content, cost cutting non profit spend, scale back Disney+ spend, likely raise prices at the expense of losing some customers, fire 50% at ESPN and refocus on sports content, and laser focus on operations/running the business including making employees happier.
The company is already doing almost all of the business-related recommendations you have.

The board is not corrupt and I have no idea how you’ve come to that conclusion. What are they corrupted by?

As to ”politics,” I think what you’re really referring to is social commentary. Disney’s content has always had social commentary going back to Walt. It‘s part of what makes their content compelling and thought-provoking and Disney would be worse off without it. I don’t like the company being embroiled in controversy but it comes with the territory given their place in our world and the divisive times we live in.

If Disney released Bambi today they’d be raked over the coals by certain factions and you know it. Heck, they were criticized back in the ‘40s for the various messages in the film even though it was based on a novel.
How was your Xmas?
It was great. Food was excellent. The card games and trivia were fun (I won the trivia game, so that helps haha). And it was great to visit with the family.

How was yours?
 
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dman1373

Active Member
Profitability is recovering. Next year will see a huge increase.

My experiences at the parks beg to differ and so does the general public’s, as evidenced by their continued success and recent high levels of guest satisfaction.

Give me a break. I said relatively weak, as in relative to their films in the past decade. Disney has released a number of entertaining films in the past 2 years. Some creative misses are expected in this business.

I’m well aware that the company’s profitability is down at the moment. The decline in profitability is understandable and significant progress has been made to return the company to previous levels of profitability. For instance, free cash flow rose from $1.1 billion in FY22 to $4.9 billion in FY23. The company and analysts expect free cash flow to increase to around $8 billion in FY24, which would surpass FY15 and come close to levels in FY16 and FY17.
Realistically on the movie ip front the marvel universe has its best years behind it, Pixar has gone cold from years of average movies, star wars has been ruined by terrible writing, and all of the live action movies are trash. Disney has bought so many companies over the past 30 years and had ruined almost all of them over the past 10. I don't think they have the creative people left to turn it around. I see the best years of Disney behind it.
 

Stripes

Well-Known Member
Realistically on the movie ip front the marvel universe has its best years behind it, Pixar has gone cold from years of average movies, star wars has been ruined by terrible writing, and all of the live action movies are trash. Disney has bought so many companies over the past 30 years and had ruined almost all of them over the past 10. I don't think they have the creative people left to turn it around. I see the best years of Disney behind it.
The Walt Disney Studios over the past 10 years had the greatest run of any studio in history. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see. I’m not a huge Star Wars fan but I enjoyed Rogue One, The Mandalorian, and Andor more than the original trilogy. I’m excited about several projects coming out soon.








 
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Casper Gutman

Well-Known Member
Since this thread won’t die, it should be noted that Musk reiterated his support for the “great replacement theory” last week. This is the nonsense conspiracy that has already led to the brutal murder of dozens of innocents by white nationalist terrorists in mass shootings in Buffalo, Pittsburgh, El Paso, and elsewhere. Musks “apologies” were lies, which was evident at the time. He is a virulent bigot, and fantasizing about him buying Disney is, quite frankly, disgusting.
 

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
Disney stock is the same price now that it was in 2014, meanwhile the DJIA has more than doubled in that same time (17k to 37k) and the SP500 has also more than doubled (2k to 5k).

It’s been stagnant during one of the biggest stock booms in our lifetime, that’s pathetic.

D+ has potential, I don’t think we have the management team in place to capitalize on it though, all Igers done since he came back is cut budgets, cut staffing, and cut expenses all while raising prices on everything, that’s worked to prop up profit in the short term but is a losing strategy in the long term.
To be a fly on the wall during those executive meetings now….maybe will be another good book one day
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Since this thread won’t die, it should be noted that Musk reiterated his support for the “great replacement theory” last week. This is the nonsense conspiracy that has already led to the brutal murder of dozens of innocents by white nationalist terrorists in mass shootings in Buffalo, Pittsburgh, El Paso, and elsewhere. Musks “apologies” were lies, which was evident at the time. He is a virulent bigot, and fantasizing about him buying Disney is, quite frankly, disgusting.
Please link to his reiteration (and/or) primary "support" of this conspiracy.
 

Brian

Well-Known Member
Since this thread won’t die, it should be noted that Musk reiterated his support for the “great replacement theory” last week. This is the nonsense conspiracy that has already led to the brutal murder of dozens of innocents by white nationalist terrorists in mass shootings in Buffalo, Pittsburgh, El Paso, and elsewhere. Musks “apologies” were lies, which was evident at the time. He is a virulent bigot, and fantasizing about him buying Disney is, quite frankly, disgusting.
Him buying Disney would be a huge win for both society and humanity. Sadly, I do not think he would. In his view, it's not as important as he viewed Twitter.
 

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
Please link to his reiteration (and/or) primary "support" of this conspiracy.
I can link to his primary support of a tweet that you yourself acknowledged as anti-immigrant/Islamophobic. I’ve asked you a few times whether his views in that regard bother you, and I’ve yet to receive a reply.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
I don’t think there’s any billionaire out there in whom I’d put so much faith. There’s a strange cult of personality at play here that I really don’t understand.
Many back in the day put their faith invested their life savings to a young Warren Buffett. Many years later these folks are millionaires in net worth and 93 year old Warren Buffett worth $118B still drives himself to work followed by his security team. I like Buffett's thinking in his daily diet of fast food and soda. He eats like a 6 year old since he said 6 year olds have one of the lowest death rates.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Elon is a White South African who grew up in a rich family during apartheid. His latest Twitter ramblings have shown the world what he always was.

Like almost every billionaire he is also an unrepentant narcissist with a savior complex. I believe his most recent biographer is quoted as saying the Elon very much wants the world to be saved, provided he is the one to do it and only him.

He also is the person who has solely kept America in first place in interstellar travel, built the only profitable electric car company, and owns the largest internet access portal in the world.

All these aspects can be true, because he is a human being. Personally I think his best days are behind him, and he is becoming more and more mentally unstable. I hope that his various corporations recognize it and somehow limit his power but doubt it will happen until he does something that loses his investors a lot of money, if X goes bankrupt that may be just enough.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Ask any company why they ask you to list your past achievements on your resume/CV. Ask any teacher which of their students is likely to ace the next exam and which students are likely to bomb it. Ask any consumer why they are likely to choose a particular brand over another. Ask any manager why they choose certain people to lead certain projects.

I’ll reiterate, past performance doesn’t guarantee future performance, but it is the best indicator we have.

You mentioned the caution note for investment products. What do they say? “Past performance is no guarantee of future results” which is clearly not what I’m suggesting.
A person is not a company and a company is not a person. People generally do not change much, but companies change as the people who run it change. 30 years ago the Kodak corporation was a Dow Jones company making photography products, today it’s a penny stock that is constantly trying to hop on the next big thing (blockchain in 2019, health care in 2020 etc.). The best way to tell if a company is going to succeed is to research its current plan and staff, as well as its competitors so that you can tell it will succeed. Easy to say, hard to do.
 

celluloid

Well-Known Member
I have to say one thing. He apologized. Now we can go on to "well he only apologized due to the heat" but really, billionares of his status and influence rarely apologize.

Take it what you will. Unforgiveable. Damage is done etc...
But the guy apologized.
That actually couldn’t be furthest from the truth, there is a reason every investment product has to say the phrase. It’s investing 101.

Exactly. It is indeed. It is the reason why the phrase "You are only as good as the last thing you have done" and not "remember when the company used to do this?"
 

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