Issued at 500 PM AST TUE OCT 02 2012
000
WTNT44 KNHC 022037
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 81
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST TUE OCT 02 2012
NADINE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOUD TOPS
WARMING AND BANDING FEATURES BECOMING LESS PRONOUNCED. DVORAK DATA
T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO
50 KT. AS NADINE BEGINS TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR AND OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NADINE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND FINALLY
LOSE ITS IDENTITY AS IT IS ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
LOW OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
THE STORM HAS TURNED EASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 090/6 KT.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NADINE TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS IT
IS STEERED AROUND A LARGE TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
LIES BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 34.4N 36.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 34.9N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 36.0N 32.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 39.0N 29.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 43.2N 26.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/1800Z 48.0N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 022037
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 81
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST TUE OCT 02 2012
NADINE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOUD TOPS
WARMING AND BANDING FEATURES BECOMING LESS PRONOUNCED. DVORAK DATA
T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO
50 KT. AS NADINE BEGINS TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR AND OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NADINE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND FINALLY
LOSE ITS IDENTITY AS IT IS ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
LOW OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
THE STORM HAS TURNED EASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 090/6 KT.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NADINE TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS IT
IS STEERED AROUND A LARGE TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
LIES BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 34.4N 36.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 34.9N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 36.0N 32.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 39.0N 29.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 43.2N 26.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/1800Z 48.0N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Continue reading...