Tropical Storm 9 potential impact to WDW and Central Florida This Weekend

[monothingie]

Her we go again.

@wdwmagic or @The Mom move as you see fit.

 

[KevinPage]

Pfft, we might get some rain. Will be there on Saturday, hope all the wimps stay home and make my life easier

 

[monothingie]

Very curious that the NHC is issuing a cone and advisories for a storm that hasn’t even formed. Looks mostly to be a rain maker at the moment and some models indicating it potentially maxing out as a weak Cat 1.

 

[Gringrinngghost]

By 2AM Saturday, it should be Tropical Storm Humberto. There currently isnt any expected Operational impacts.

 

[Gringrinngghost]

Very curious that the NHC is issuing a cone and advisories for a storm that hasn’t even formed. Looks mostly to be a rain maker at the moment and some models indicating it potentially maxing out as a weak Cat 1.

It was an invest area for most of the early part of the week. This is rather common. Additionally we did have 3 recon flights today that determined that it needed to be addressed outside of an invest area as there are parts near the center of circulation that are firing off, even at the current look at GOES East Clean Infrared. It's really just Standard Operating Procedure, especially given the short time frame.

Recon plan of the day:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 111732
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT WED 11 SEPTEMBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-106

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR CENTRAL BAHAMAS)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
       A. 12/2000Z                   A. 13/0530Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
       C. 12/1730Z                   C. 13/0245Z
       D. 24.0N 77.0W                D. 24.5N 78.5W
       E. 12/1945Z TO 13/0000Z       E. 13/0500Z TO 13/0830Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
       A. 13/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
       C. 13/0900Z
       D. 24.7N 79.5W
       E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
       DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN

There are Recon flights planned for tomorrow as well.

 

[monothingie]

It was an invest area for most of the early part of the week. This is rather common. Additionally we did have 3 recon flights today that determined that it needed to be addressed outside of an invest area as there are parts near the center of circulation that are firing off, even at the current look at GOES East Clean Infrared. It's really just Standard Operating Procedure, especially given the short time frame.

Recon plan of the day:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 111732
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT WED 11 SEPTEMBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-106

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR CENTRAL BAHAMAS)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
       A. 12/2000Z                   A. 13/0530Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
       C. 12/1730Z                   C. 13/0245Z
       D. 24.0N 77.0W                D. 24.5N 78.5W
       E. 12/1945Z TO 13/0000Z       E. 13/0500Z TO 13/0830Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
       A. 13/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
       C. 13/0900Z
       D. 24.7N 79.5W
       E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
       DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN

There are Recon flights planned for tomorrow as well.

No I don’t disagree I’ve always seen them usually just give the probability map with the potential affected region. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an advisory with a cone for a non formed system.

 

[Gringrinngghost]

No I don’t disagree I’ve always seen them usually just give the probability map with the potential affected region. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an advisory with a cone for a non formed system.

Its rather common, this was Dorain before it was named,

 

[monothingie]

View attachment 409733

Its rather common, this was Dorain before it was named,

Yes it was a TD at the time of the first advisory. This advisory used the nomenclature “potential tropical cyclone 9” not getting argumentative just have not seen an advisory with a system in this unformed state.

 

[Gringrinngghost]

Yes it was a TD at the time of the first advisory. This advisory used the nomenclature “potential tropical cyclone 9” not getting argumentative just have not seen an advisory with a system in this unformed state.

I’m just saying it’s standard operating procedures especially as the storm has been developing the past week.

 

[TP2000]

Good. We are desperately in need of a prolonged period of rain in the area. The wind....not so much.

The Orlando area is? Today's weekly Drought Monitor report has only a few spots in the panhandle drier than normal. No drought areas anywhere past Tallahassee. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

 

[Timmay]

I’m just saying it’s standard operating procedures especially as the storm has been developing the past week.

I got an alert status earlier this afternoon that it had become a TD. It was through AccuWeather, so who knows.

 

[Gringrinngghost]

I got an alert status earlier this afternoon that it had become a TD. It was through AccuWeather, so who knows.

I'll reach out a friend of mine who manages their Social Media department to ask if they goofed.

 

[Timmay]

I'll reach out a friend of mine who manages their Social Media department to ask if they goofed.

Sorry, it was through My Radar. I goofed.

 

[Timmay]

Not that it really matters...

 

[DisneyCane]

Very curious that the NHC is issuing a cone and advisories for a storm that hasn’t even formed. Looks mostly to be a rain maker at the moment and some models indicating it potentially maxing out as a weak Cat 1.

They needed to issue the cone because if it develops, it could happen where landfall is sooner than the 3-5 day cone can cover. This way, people in the cone can at least be paying attention and ready to prepare if necessary.