ford91exploder
Resident Curmudgeon
Mexico has oil and minerals and a manufacturing base, No surprise ATT is interested.
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The Spirited 11th Hour ...
- Thread starter WDW1974
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Mexico has oil and minerals and a manufacturing base, No surprise ATT is interested.
ford91exploder
Resident Curmudgeon
Don't judge SDL's ticket prices by Western, Japan, or even Hong Kong standards.
A July 19, 2013 New York Times article is telling:
Average annual income for a family in 2012 was 13,000 renminbi, or about $2,100. When broken down by geography, the survey results showed that the average amount in Shanghai, a huge coastal city, was just over 29,000 renminbi, or $4,700, while the average in Gansu Province, far from the coast in northwest China, was 11,400 renminbi, or just under $2,000. Average family income in urban areas was about $2,600, while it was $1,600 in rural areas.
Assuming the survey is accurate and a very healthy 10% annual income gain since then, that makes the ¥370 standard day ticket equivalent to a $488 one-day Magic Kingdom ticket and the ¥499 peak day ticket equivalent to a $658 one-day Magic Kingdom ticket.
This is what grinds my gears about so called 'Analysts' someone should have shot back with how does one expect the average Chinese citizen to pay the equivalent of $500 to $650 PER DAY on park admission.
Darth Sidious
Authentically Disney Distinctly Chinese
Not one reliable source has said anything about them cutting the project. The only thing known is Bob Chapek reasonably asked Bob Weiss to keep on budget and to work quickly. Some people here really just like complaining. This is something we have all wanted...
ford91exploder
Resident Curmudgeon
Yes but you also have to recall what CEO Bob Iger has said to Wall Street regarding the future success of SDL. For example, during his December 2015 interview on Bloomberg TV:
And so when you look at Shanghai as a for instance and put a Disneyland there in Pudong, you have access to a huge, huge population base. Hundreds of millions of people. Over 300 million people will be able to travel to Shanghai Disneyland within a 3-1/2 hour trip interestingly enough. You know that's really quite a large consumer base. So we're bullish.
Iger has repeatedly boasted about the "300 million people" who live "within a 3-1/2 hour trip", using this to assure Wall Street that SDL will be a rousing financial windfall for the company, all the time knowing that prices were going to make SDL beyond the reach of most of those 300 consumers.
That 300 million number is irrelevant if most can't afford it.
Besides, you're the one who earlier wrote ''I'm going to go out on a controversial limb and say the SDL prices strike me as quite fair", which is what my post was in response to. I doubt a lot of people would consider a $488 or $658 one-day Magic Kingdom ticket to be "quite fair". Based on what you wrote in your most recent post, neither would you. After all, "quite fair" isn't fair if it's only fair for the wealthy.
With prices this high relative to the local market how does Bob expect that this will be financially self supporting now or ever, The Chinese like to build things because they can as a symbolic representation of their economic power - there are entire CITIES with no inhabitants with the canonical example being Ordos.
http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-ghost-cities-in-2014-2014-6
There are hundreds more like Ordos, China built these because they COULD, They were not built based on rational analysis or economic need.
So I say again how will SDL pay off for Disney, I expect it will be a long term drain on TWDC just as DLP was and all because Bob wanted to be FIRST on mainland China also without apparent economic analysis.
ParentsOf4
Well-Known Member
It's all about China's massive population.
As @BrianLo already suggested, SDL is targeted for China's upper income households. For the masses, it likely will remain, at best, an infrequent indulgence.
ford91exploder
Resident Curmudgeon
I grant the point that @BrianLo makes, However the upper income Chinese are primarily located in the coastal cities and most of them are further away than Bob's 3.5 hours and even a hour outside of Shanghai income falls steeply from the 29,000 RB Shanghai median income. People think we have income inequality in the US, In China it's FAR worse even though the Chinese are nominally Communist.
The MEDIAN income for a Chinese family is about 12,000 RB so it's hard to see how even the huge population of China is going to make SDL work economically without a subsidy from TWDC a la DLP.
hopemax
Well-Known Member
So for the final day of visiting WDW with our friends we were at EPCOT. And so I have a question. New CMs used to have to demonstrate they were capable of doing the spiels BEFORE they were allowed to do them on stage and in front of guests, right?
Because yesterday at the Pixar short film thingy, another group of CP newbies, one of them was attempting to do the spiel, and after about 2 sentences she got very flustered. To the point of accidentally saying the s-word into the microphone when she obviously couldn't remember what came next. After that she sort of dropped down behind the lectern and then tried to continue with the trainer feeding her every couple of words. She had a strong accent during the start but as she became more flustered she got even more mumbly, and unintelligible.
I felt really bad for her, and I thought CMs had to practice elsewhere. Not only to preserve the guest experience but because it provides the CM with confidence that they are ready and capable. This just looked like someone being thrown out there unprepared.
After the show, the exit spiel was another new CM. He made it a little farther in before dropping into unintelligible mumbling as he lost confidence about what he was saying.
Because yesterday at the Pixar short film thingy, another group of CP newbies, one of them was attempting to do the spiel, and after about 2 sentences she got very flustered. To the point of accidentally saying the s-word into the microphone when she obviously couldn't remember what came next. After that she sort of dropped down behind the lectern and then tried to continue with the trainer feeding her every couple of words. She had a strong accent during the start but as she became more flustered she got even more mumbly, and unintelligible.
I felt really bad for her, and I thought CMs had to practice elsewhere. Not only to preserve the guest experience but because it provides the CM with confidence that they are ready and capable. This just looked like someone being thrown out there unprepared.
After the show, the exit spiel was another new CM. He made it a little farther in before dropping into unintelligible mumbling as he lost confidence about what he was saying.
ford91exploder
Resident Curmudgeon
Oh I would not bet on that, Bob Weis got his job because he knew where the bodies were buried so to speak, When asked to make deep cuts in upcoming projects to 'Make the Quarterly Numbers' his answer will be 'Yes Bob, I'll handle it how much do we need to cut this quarter?'
ford91exploder
Resident Curmudgeon
Right now pretty much all you need to be a CM at WDW is a pulse, I've seen variations of your experience so many times the poor CM is barely fluent in English and they mumble some words and that passes for the spiel these days.
*Q*
Well-Known Member
“'In short, all the things available in all the other five Disney parks will be seen in the Shanghai park.'”*
*Except for a steam train, The Haunted Mansion, Space Mountain, Big Thunder Mountain Railroad, it's a small world, Jungle Cruise, Autopia, and Main Street.
John
Well-Known Member
I am just following along like most here. What strikes me is that we have heard from @WDW1974 as well as others that SDL was being built for the Chinese people.....not tourist. What gives? Most Chinese can not afford it, is there enough wealthy Chinese to sustain the park? And if built for the Chinese people will SDL be attractive enough to the average tourist? Sure the Disney fanatic and lifestylers will visit but will there be reason enough for other upwardly mobile tourist to want to visit?....and we think we are being priced out.....sheeeeesh!
Darth Sidious
Authentically Disney Distinctly Chinese
Shanghai is a coastal city
Well if one were to piece together bits of information it becomes quite evident:
China removes restrictions on number of kids that can be born into a family
+
SDL will be too expensive for the vast majority of citizens
=
Disney will accept kids as payment for park entry.
Katie G
Well-Known Member
Don't judge SDL's ticket prices by Western, Japan, or even Hong Kong standards.
A July 19, 2013 New York Times article is telling:
Average annual income for a family in 2012 was 13,000 renminbi, or about $2,100. When broken down by geography, the survey results showed that the average amount in Shanghai, a huge coastal city, was just over 29,000 renminbi, or $4,700, while the average in Gansu Province, far from the coast in northwest China, was 11,400 renminbi, or just under $2,000. Average family income in urban areas was about $2,600, while it was $1,600 in rural areas.
Assuming the survey is accurate and a very healthy 10% annual income gain since then, that makes the ¥370 standard day ticket equivalent to a $488 one-day Magic Kingdom ticket and the ¥499 peak day ticket equivalent to a $658 one-day Magic Kingdom ticket.
So to be clear, we shouldn't judge SDLs prices by western standards, but you are using a median income to 1-day ticket comparison created by using western standards to compare pricing in China?
Averages can be very deceiving... In this case, maybe the question should be distribution of income levels. If SDL is trying to hit the 20ish millions in a full year (which I believe some on here have said), then 20ish out of 300 doesn't seem quite so crazy if there is a decent distribution of higher income Chinese in the area, plus you could get some Chinese tourists.
Mike S
Well-Known Member
That would work except for one small thing. No Small World to force them to work in
Prince-1
Well-Known Member
Because it makes sense to tell your boss, "Um, no i don't think we should be doing that. We need to spend what was initially projected to make sure that the guests and especially those on WDW Magic get the full Disney experience."
Everyone is a "yes man" when push comes to shove. He can try and sell it but the Big Bob makes the final decision.
Goofyernmost
Well-Known Member
When they have collected enough of them they can build a live action Small World attraction there! Perhaps they can call it "For You It's A Very Small World".
gonzoWDW
Well-Known Member
Don't judge SDL's ticket prices by Western, Japan, or even Hong Kong standards.
A July 19, 2013 New York Times article is telling:
Average annual income for a family in 2012 was 13,000 renminbi, or about $2,100. When broken down by geography, the survey results showed that the average amount in Shanghai, a huge coastal city, was just over 29,000 renminbi, or $4,700, while the average in Gansu Province, far from the coast in northwest China, was 11,400 renminbi, or just under $2,000. Average family income in urban areas was about $2,600, while it was $1,600 in rural areas.
Assuming the survey is accurate and a very healthy 10% annual income gain since then, that makes the ¥370 standard day ticket equivalent to a $488 one-day Magic Kingdom ticket and the ¥499 peak day ticket equivalent to a $658 one-day Magic Kingdom ticket.
It's interesting that the article uses average annual income, rather than median, which I thought was the standard when measuring income. The median would likely be lower in all locations, but would probably shorten the "income gap" when comparing coastal cities to the mainland. Makes for a less exciting story I guess.
The next question becomes, what is the annual cost of living in those areas and how much will families have to available to spend on a one day trip to SDL? My other question is, who sets the pricing: Disney or the Chinese company (Shendi)?
ford91exploder
Resident Curmudgeon
Yes it is, But in it's standard metro area it does not have enough potential visitors with sufficient disposable income to get 20 million guests/year
The Shanghai median income is heavily skewed by a few very wealthy individuals.
GiveMeTheMusic
Well-Known Member
Correct all around. The budget I was whispered for SWL at DL is nothing short of inane. If WDI can't deliver their plans for that number, there is a serious, serious issue. Especially when Uni Creative is so good at delivering massive projects at fractions of WDI price points.
That said, I would rather guests get the optimal experience if it means cost overruns while WDI's model is fixed and streamlined. I'm wary of the approach that's currently in effect, although I have a suspicion Iger won't let any attractions or substance be cut from his pet project.
It will be a very interesting few years, and I hope the result is a WDI that can deliver new projects at six resorts on a regular basis without extreme overpricing.