The Shanghai Disneyland effect on our 3.5 billion

djkidkaz

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Something I've been thinking about lately is could we end up in a similar situation to what happened to WDW when Disneyland Paris opened and bombed? If Shanghai opens and doesn't meet expectations could we end up getting our 3.5 billion slashed, similar to Eisners Disney decade?

Thoughts?
 

Bolt

Well-Known Member
Something I've been thinking about lately is could we end up in a similar situation to what happened to WDW when Disneyland Paris opened and bombed? If Shanghai opens and doesn't meet expectations could we end up getting our 3.5 billion slashed, similar to Eisners Disney decade?

Thoughts?
Always possible but I'm pretty sure it would take a while to notice if Shanghai underperforms because there will be a gener excitement for the first few years that no matter what, it would have high sustainability.
 

Matt7187

Well-Known Member
I sure hope not as a fan, but it is a very interesting proposition. Do I think it will happen? No, not really, I think that Disney is finally realizing that they need to do something to combat Universal's aggressive expansion or they will keep losing guests days/money. But could it happen? Yeah, I think it could. They could potentially cut a bunch of neat effects and theming a year or two into construction, and it wouldn't be the first time.
 

sshindel

The Epcot Manifesto
I've mostly wondered how long Disney has projected the adoption of the Shanghai project to take.
I'm imagining that the attendance is going to take a while to stabilize. It may start out huge, drop off like a rock, and stay low. It may start out small and grow with word of mouth. It may start huge, drop, and then organically grow, etc etc.
How long is Disney prepared to give the property time to stabilize before they take action?
I'd have to think that Disney has had people pouring over and modeling projected attendance scenarios. How much data exists and is accessible in mainland China there to build some really good predictive models?
I'm expecting there to be knee jerk reaction from people outside of Disney based on what happens when this opens. Either it will be branded a massive success or massive failure in short order. The real question though is how it will work in the long term. Disney is taking a risk here, but how much that pays off will not play itself out in the first year of it's existence, but in the years down the road.
 

ChrisFL

Premium Member
I dunno, I was starting to wonder if the $3.5B for WDW was because maybe they thought Shanghai WASN'T going to meet expectations of crowds, and funding more projects at WDW would boost attendance
 

DVCOwner

A Long Time DVC Member
With 300 million people living within 3 hours of the Shanghai Disney Resort, I do not think that attendance is going to be the problem. Making sure they can handle the crowds is going to be the issue. This is going to have crowds the size of Tokyo Disney Resort if not bigger.
 

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
Something I've been thinking about lately is could we end up in a similar situation to what happened to WDW when Disneyland Paris opened and bombed? If Shanghai opens and doesn't meet expectations could we end up getting our 3.5 billion slashed, similar to Eisners Disney decade?

Thoughts?

Uh, money will already be allocated and dirt will have moved....
 

dizneycrazy09

Well-Known Member
Something I've been thinking about lately is could we end up in a similar situation to what happened to WDW when Disneyland Paris opened and bombed? If Shanghai opens and doesn't meet expectations could we end up getting our 3.5 billion slashed, similar to Eisners Disney decade?

Thoughts?

By the time Shanghai opens, and enough time is given to either deem the venture a failure or success, the 3.5 billion dollars allocated for WDW will have been spent. So to answer your question, no I do not believe the success (or lack of success) of SDL will have much of an effect on the CURRENT plans. As for furture WDW plans, who knows.
 

JediMasterMatt

Well-Known Member
As Dave was saying, once the earth starts getting shoved around - everything in motion gets built.

If the makeover gets announced and they mention anything starting construction in later phase, then that is the only window for things to be cancelled/delayed due to an underperforming Shanghai.

The following is a list of things that were promised as future phases that actually opened if they weren't already under construction when the project began: ___________________.

That's a long list, isn't it?
 

hpyhnt 1000

Well-Known Member
Uh, money will already be allocated and dirt will have moved....

This.

Plus, remember that a good chunk of that is for DHS/Star Wars construction, which was rejected earlier because it was too small in scope and ambition. Highly unlikely we would see money pared back given that context along with what @PhotoDave219 said. Plus, look at DCA and how even during the recession money was kept flowing toward that project.

The more we hear in terms of rumblings and rumors, there does seem to be a bit of a "go big or go home" feeling about upcoming additions to WDW. I'd be surprised if many were suddenly yanked away because of what is happening half a world away. Given the high attendance in recent years, WDW is well positioned to reap large rewards from any new large-scale additions.
 

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
This.

Plus, remember that a good chunk of that is for DHS/Star Wars construction, which was rejected earlier because it was too small in scope and ambition. Highly unlikely we would see money pared back given that context along with what @PhotoDave219 said. Plus, look at DCA and how even during the recession money was kept flowing toward that project.

The more we hear in terms of rumblings and rumors, there does seem to be a bit of a "go big or go home" feeling about upcoming additions to WDW. I'd be surprised if many were suddenly yanked away because of what is happening half a world away. Given the high attendance in recent years, WDW is well positioned to reap large rewards from any new large-scale additions.

More to the point, When they finally realize they need to make any changes to Shanghai, it will be by the time DHS makeover is almost done.

Timing will be fine
 

ChrisFL

Premium Member
With 300 million people living within 3 hours of the Shanghai Disney Resort, I do not think that attendance is going to be the problem. Making sure they can handle the crowds is going to be the issue. This is going to have crowds the size of Tokyo Disney Resort if not bigger.

I'm not so sure, but it will be very interesting to me either way...how Disney handles massive crowds (and, although I HATE to mention this, but most likely crowds with no experience with proper queueing behavior) or how they handle things if they don't get them.
 

djkidkaz

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Well everything we're hearing is that DHS will be done in phases with Star Wars being last. We saw what Paris did to spending. And what the Magic Bands did to spending. Shanghai opens next year and they will just be starting DHS expansion and will be how many years out from completion. If Shanghai opens as a failure I could definitely see us getting budget cuts to ease some of the stock holders pain.
 

LongtimeReader

Active Member
Well everything we're hearing is that DHS will be done in phases with Star Wars being last. We saw what Paris did to spending. And what the Magic Bands did to spending. Shanghai opens next year and they will just be starting DHS expansion and will be how many years out from completion. If Shanghai opens as a failure I could definitely see us getting budget cuts to ease some of the stock holders pain.

I definitely don't foresee any huge financial pains because of Shanghai, but you never know. They obviously didn't think Paris would flop either, and there are certainly enough people within three hours of THAT resort too.

And as for once the ground is broken it will be completed...don't forget about Pop Century phase two that sat there half finished for a decade. I doubt that would be the case inside a park, but things can ALWAYS be slashed as it goes.

But I think all of that is highly unlikely because I also believe that they are spending money to make money here, and no Shanghai woes would change the pencil pushers' projections over here. It would have to be a pretty colossal flop to impact spending at WDW (like a DLP sized flop).
 

Bolt

Well-Known Member
Well everything we're hearing is that DHS will be done in phases with Star Wars being last. We saw what Paris did to spending. And what the Magic Bands did to spending. Shanghai opens next year and they will just be starting DHS expansion and will be how many years out from completion. If Shanghai opens as a failure I could definitely see us getting budget cuts to ease some of the stock holders pain.
I really doubt Shanghai will struggle. The plus is Disney only has a 44% interest.
 

DVCOwner

A Long Time DVC Member
I'm not so sure, but it will be very interesting to me either way...how Disney handles massive crowds (and, although I HATE to mention this, but most likely crowds with no experience with proper queueing behavior) or how they handle things if they don't get them.

I was reading about Disney concern about queuing at Shanghai Disneyland Resort and they stated that they our looking at building ques that harder to break into and that have barriers to protect them from line jumping. Just have to wait and see if this is true.
 

todd23

Active Member
I was reading about Disney concern about queuing at Shanghai Disneyland Resort and they stated that they our looking at building ques that harder to break into and that have barriers to protect them from line jumping. Just have to wait and see if this is true.

That would be awesome! I hate when people budge in line.
 

BrerJon

Well-Known Member
As Dave was saying, once the earth starts getting shoved around - everything in motion gets built.

If the makeover gets announced and they mention anything starting construction in later phase, then that is the only window for things to be cancelled/delayed due to an underperforming Shanghai.

But how long did it take for earth to start being shovelled on Avatar? Two years? Three? We haven't even had the announcement of anything yet, so if we're a couple of years away from construction starting, Shanghai will be long open before the first digger arrives.

Disney claims Shanghai's first 12 months will see 25 million visitors, more than any other park in the world has ever got, but capacity doesn't seem to allow for that so it can only be assumed they're including visitors to Disney Town, the 'free' section. If they are assuming 25 million people will be going through the turnstiles and paying the same rates other parks pay, then we could be in trouble, but if ticket prices are much, much cheaper, or Disney is only projecting a small percentage of Town visitors making it inside the park, then there shouldn't be much to worry about.
 

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