The fallacy of overcrowded parks......

[xdan0920]

Forgive me some rambling thoughts dear reader....

I have been beating the drum against after hours and before hours and halloween parties and christmas parties and blah blah blah for quite a while now. Disney is working to sell the park multiples times a day, all under the guise of guest demand as it relates to over-crowding. So, it got me thinking....

Are the parks REALLY over crowded? There seems to be an argument that WDW, and more specifically MK was never designed to hold this many guests. But what does that mean exactly? Over the past 20 years, MK attendance has increased by 5 million clicks a year. Does that # include parties? @marni1971 @wdwmagic @lentesta

Let's say it doesn't include party guests, for arguments sake. Because if it does include parties, then the MK attendence growth is a clear and inarguable fallacy. Attendance hasn't grown significantly in this case. They are just getting secondary clicks constantly, so it looks like attendance growth.

So back to the point....

MK 20 years ago averaged 41,000 guests a day. Now it averages 54,000 guests a day. An increase of 13,000. A significant increase to be sure, but nowhere near capacity. So where does the argument come from that the park can't handle this many guests?

It seems to me, that the busiest days have always felt busy. The big difference now is that the average days feel the same as a busy day. Is it the extra guests? or is it Disney's optimized staffing? Next time you are in the MK on what should be a normal day but feels wall to wall look around a bit. You'll see only one side of Space and Thunder operating. You'll see shuttered restaurants, and restaurants with half the registers closed. You'll see garbage in the queues and on the floor, and no custodial staff in site. You might see that the MK closes at 6p for 4 out of 7 days a week, thereby increasing guest count on non-party days. The parks aren't over crowded, they are under-utilized.

I propose that the parks CAN handles today's guest load, Disney simply doesn't care to operate at full capacity. And why should they when people will simply pay double for an after hours party where it feels slightly less crowded.

 

[marni1971]

What I will say is park capacity rules as we knew them don’t apply anymore. People will continue to be admitted until the parks become dangerous.

I’ll also point out attendance figures equals total guests admitted in one day. It doesn’t equate to how many in the park at the same time. The amount in park at any one time can be surprisingly low.

Even so, artificially increasing lines by reducing capacity is indeed a done thing. By many parks.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

The park is simply not adequately staffed for the crowds it receives.

This is one of the big differences between Tokyo Disneyland, which is similar to MK in layout and attraction mix, and the WDW equivalent. Except you're also paying more for this inferior experience in Florida, even compared to just a few years ago.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I propose that the parks CAN handles today's guest load, Disney simply doesn't care to operate at full capacity. And why should they when people will simply pay double for an after hours party where it feels slightly less crowded.

Or when fans will admire and defend how smart Disney is for charging more while keeping staffing and investment in the park as low as possible.

 

[BoarderPhreak]

When I walk into a park and I can barely move, let alone get on rides, browse shops or get something to eat in a timely fashion - it's crowded. Overcrowded. Whatever the reason(s) it will impact how I feel about subsequent trips. If I wanted this experience, I could go to a local bar on a weekend night. This is not a vacation to me; it's enough work as it is, with all the planning involved. Not to mention the cost.

 

[jloucks]

Forgive me some rambling thoughts dear reader....

I have been beating the drum against after hours and before hours and halloween parties and christmas parties and blah blah blah for quite a while now. Disney is working to sell the park multiples times a day, all under the guise of guest demand as it relates to over-crowding. So, it got me thinking....

Are the parks REALLY over crowded? There seems to be an argument that WDW, and more specifically MK was never designed to hold this many guests. But what does that mean exactly? Over the past 20 years, MK attendance has increased by 5 million clicks a year. Does that # include parties? @marni1971 @wdwmagic @lentesta

Let's say it doesn't include party guests, for arguments sake. Because if it does include parties, then the MK attendence growth is a clear and inarguable fallacy. Attendance hasn't grown significantly in this case. They are just getting secondary clicks constantly, so it looks like attendance growth.

So back to the point....

MK 20 years ago averaged 41,000 guests a day. Now it averages 54,000 guests a day. An increase of 13,000. A significant increase to be sure, but nowhere near capacity. So where does the argument come from that the park can't handle this many guests?

It seems to me, that the busiest days have always felt busy. The big difference now is that the average days feel the same as a busy day. Is it the extra guests? or is it Disney's optimized staffing? Next time you are in the MK on what should be a normal day but feels wall to wall look around a bit. You'll see only one side of Space and Thunder operating. You'll see shuttered restaurants, and restaurants with half the registers closed. You'll see garbage in the queues and on the floor, and no custodial staff in site. You might see that the MK closes at 6p for 4 out of 7 days a week, thereby increasing guest count on non-party days. The parks aren't over crowded, they are under-utilized.

I propose that the parks CAN handles today's guest load, Disney simply doesn't care to operate at full capacity. And why should they when people will simply pay double for an after hours party where it feels slightly less crowded.

Overcrowded is in most cases an opinion. For me, overcrowded is...

• Ride lines over 15 minutes long
• Food lines over 30 minutes long
• Bus lines over 30 minutes long
• Walking half speed over half the time because you are blocked left, right, and forward by masses of people
• Any mass of people that would be trample danger in an emergency
• Parking more than 15 minutes away
• Security lines over 10 minutes long
• Obstructed view by masses of people for shows and attractions

As you can see, your parameters may vary. But, yes, sure, technically the parks can handle all the people. The parks can handle 2 hour lines just fine. ...but can you?

 

[JIMINYCR]

I dont care what the official or unofficial numbers are, or what crowding may be artificially manufactured by Disney. All I care about is getting enough things done in a park day so it feels like I accomplished something. When I compare with past years, it surely shows less being able to be done and my level of frustration has increased. Outside of the attractions, the once open spaces are super crowded and theres less room to maneuver around. Sure seems more crowded to me.

 

[Queen of the WDW Scene]

I bet it does include the pay to play events.

What I will say about crowds though is from experience over the course of my life having gone to Disney since in the womb... is I believe social media has played a big role in the higher crowds.

"Everyone" wants to get that insta pic in front of the bubble gum wall, "everyone" wants to eat the inst treats, "everyone" wants to show their followers they are there, "everyone" wants to vlog etc...

I put quotes because I know its not actually everyone lol.
I also have no problem with all of that. I may take the occasional insta wall pic or a pic of my awesome looking treat or a video here and there myself. I also admit to watching the vlogs and looking at the instagram feeds.
My point is not to say anything against people that do those things but rather to point out that I believe it has made the parks more crowded.

And from my experience it hasn't even impacted the attraction queues so much as it has impacted just the overall amount of people milling about the park and eating at the restaurants.

Since I'm someone that doesn't get overwhelmed by walking through people to get to the rides it hasn't impacted most of my vacation since I'm there mostly for rides.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Capacity design for a theme park is a little counterintuitive. The park is designed for a design day attendance that is greater than average daily attendance but lower than peak attendance. With the design day, the park is designed to a certain hourly capacity by determining how much the park wants people waiting with the metric of attractions per guest per hour, with the standard park aiming for 1.5 - 2. Disney has effectively bucked both of these standards by better distributing visitation throughout the year and therefore more closely aligning the average day to the Design day and pushing down the expected attractions per guest per hour below 1. Disney wants a guest visiting for 10 - 12 hours only doing about 8 experiences (a definition broader than attraction). Disney constrains capacity to maintain the image of crowding and the expectation of low attractions per guest per hour, but it would not be sufficient to get them back to a that guest friendly range of 1.5 - 2.

Walt Disney Imagineering’s ridiculous costs only exacerbate the problem. Even if the desire was there, it wouldn’t make any financial sense to add capacity. Over $1 billion later and the Disney’s Hollywood Studios of 2020 won’t have made a significant leap in hourly capacity. The new Epcot is heading for a similar result of billions spent and less vacant space because it was demolished, not actually filled.

Disney is now facing the strain of insufficient capacity and increasingly worse returns on investment, but it’ll somehow be fixed by people with no interest in or experience with fixed amusements.

 

[stratman50th]

When I walk into a park and I can barely move, let alone get on rides, browse shops or get something to eat in a timely fashion - it's crowded. Overcrowded. Whatever the reason(s) it will impact how I feel about subsequent trips. If I wanted this experience, I could go to a local bar on a weekend night. This is not a vacation to me; it's enough work as it is, with all the planning involved. Not to mention the cost.

Overcrowded is in most cases an opinion. For me, overcrowded is...

• Ride lines over 15 minutes long
• Food lines over 30 minutes long
• Bus lines over 30 minutes long
• Walking half speed over half the time because you are blocked left, right, and forward by masses of people
• Any mass of people that would be trample danger in an emergency
• Parking more than 15 minutes away
• Security lines over 10 minutes long
• Obstructed view by masses of people for shows and attractions

As you can see, your parameters may vary. But, yes, sure, technically the parks can handle all the people. The parks can handle 2 hour lines just fine. ...but can you?

Perception is reality. It doesn't matter what the official statistics say, if you can't move because of crowds, if you can't ride on anything in a standby line because it's 2 hours long, if you can't sit down and eat a quick meal, it's crowded. As stated above, if you go to the parks and can't get anything accomplished in the time you're there it's too crowded.

 

[The_Jobu]

Predictive staffing... my great nemesis. My absolutely number one complaint about the current company. No way to spin it as a quality or experience decision, just straight up money over guest experience.

 

[drizgirl]

The discussion is pointless without knowing how the staffing levels compare.

 

[Chef Mickey]

What I will say is park capacity rules as we knew them don’t apply anymore. People will continue to be admitted until the parks become dangerous.

I’ll also point out attendance figures equals total guests admitted in one day. It doesn’t equate to how many in the park at the same time. The amount in park at any one time can be surprisingly low.

Even so, artificially increasing lines by reducing capacity is indeed a done thing. By many parks.

I see rides running at 50% capacity constantly.

 

[NCO91590]

I know that the constant construction, temporary walls, narrowed walkways, bottlenecks, etc make me feel like the parks are more crowded, maybe when numbers wise, they are not. AK could be a CL 2 and the layout is always going to make the park seem jam packed.

 

[John park hopper]

I see rides running at 50% capacity constantly.

I gotta ask when are you there when rides are at 50% capacity?

 

[The_Jobu]

I see rides running at 50% capacity constantly.

CMs on here have said before its a struggle to get hours because they keep them all to the bare minimum. They also said they send CMs home if the day isn't as busy as they expected.

 

[JustAFan]

The discussion is pointless without knowing how the staffing levels compare.

I wouldn't quite say pointless, maybe incomplete. If enough guests feel that it's overcrowded and stay away to the point of revenue loss, it doesn't matter what your staffing numbers say. You might have to adjust your algorithm at that point. I don't think it's inconceivable, probably unlikely though.

 

[Tanna Eros]

When I walk into a park and I can barely move, let alone get on rides, browse shops or get something to eat in a timely fashion - it's crowded. Overcrowded. Whatever the reason(s) it will impact how I feel about subsequent trips. If I wanted this experience, I could go to a local bar on a weekend night. This is not a vacation to me; it's enough work as it is, with all the planning involved. Not to mention the cost.

In research papers concerning crushes; most popularly noted in the Love Parade Crush of 2010, shows the optimum crowd flowing easily at 1 person per meter. Of course, people don't hold their arms out as they walk along the boulevard to guarantee that meter space.
Once you hit three people per square meter, then look for an exit, and slink along the wall towards it, keeping one shoulder to the crowd. Avoid bottlenecks. (edit: at 7 people per square meter, the crowd mimics a liquid mass.)
Is the park that crowded? Like, shoulder to shoulder with a man you never met and never wanted to meet?
Then it's overcrowded.

 

[Victor Kelly]

I'll take the historical approach from my own experiences. The first is that Fastpass + has created a huge problem or making people wait in longer lines. Take any attraction that traditionally did not need fastpass. Let's use Haunted Mansion as an example. The crowds funneled into the Mansion without needing to merge in a 10FP to 1 standby ratio. This created a longer, much much longer standby line. I have never, ever seen a line since 1980 when the line would reach the Riverboat landing and Hall of Presidents. But look on any popular vlog and you will see it. Then you have people getting FP+ for traditionally fast moving lines like Small World or Buzz.

If you are trying to eat but it is an 30 minute wait to order and heaven help you if you want to sit and eat but cannot because there are no more tables. Then it is too crowded. Anyone notice how there are vastly fewer benches and chairs out in the parks? Look at your old photos and you will see it.

Cannot get into a shop to buy something? Too Crowded.

Wait for 2 hours to leave MK? Too crowded.

Can't find a place to park at a hotel you are staying at? Too crowded.

Cannot find a place to park at a hotel you are dining at? Too crowded.

Shoulder to shoulder crowds is January? Too crowded.

No matter if the crowds and wait times are bumped by Disney creating longer wait times by reducing throughput, people are getting angry and not coming back. This is bad because if something like Sept 11th happens again, they need those return visitors.

This is just short term planning and gains, with Disney shooting themselves in the foot. Bottom line is people feel it is too crowded and not worth the money anymore.

 

[flynnibus]

To keep it real simple... gate clicks don't tell the story about 'crowding'. 'crowding' is driven by several factors. Total attendance per year is not really a meaningful metric when discussing crowds at any one point in time.

So the whole thing is always doomed for two sides to both be 'right' but talking past each other.