the "economics of Disney " right now..

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I can't reply to you when you counter my argument that "shareholders have seen their positions decline due to the effects of Covid" with a profoundly sophomoric half sentence like "its just speculation!". Yeah, and nobody speculated Covid would happen.

Let's just move on.

It went up to some ridiculous price when the whole entertainment/leisure world was in lock down. Uncle Sam sure liked to whisper those sweet stimulus in our ears though, right?

I don’t need the economics theory. Bob chapek blamed Covid while claiming victory with the other side of his tongue. That’s the story and it plays as long as it plays.

As long as no disruption occurs…speculation will reign. It will go up to make money, It will drop to make money, then go up again. The yo-yo machine of the super computers.

It is what it is. Disney stock can’t be classified as “in trouble” when they were doing nothing and it went to the roof. Pump-dump-pump again.

 

[DisneyHead123]

As the saying goes, inflation is too many dollars chasing too few goods.

Sadly, it seems likely that the "too many dollars" part of that equation is in for a dip at best or a crash at worst in the next few years. And as for the "too few goods" portion? I am still a pretty firm believer in capitalism. Capitalism abhors a vacuum - if there is money to be made, investors will figure it out. Right now people are clearly clamoring for more unique vacation venues. I think they will start to spring up - not necessarily in the form of theme parks, but in some form - and at that point Disney will have more meaningful competition to light a fire under their behinds.

Of course vacationing at Disney might always be a bit like buying real estate in Manhattan - you're not getting a sprawling McMansion for a reasonable price in Manhattan. Like ever. Similarly, it may always be the case that you pay Ritz Carlton prices to stay at a pretty average hotel room when at Disney. But just as people found alternatives to living in Manhattan that kept the prices down at least somewhat, I think the same will be true of Disney - prices may always be crazy, but I don't think the price to lack of customer service ratio will be what it is now. I mean at the moment you have the privilege of paying for $800 hotel rooms with no housekeeping and hours long waits if you want to speak to a customer service representative on the phone. Compared to an $800 hotel room almost anywhere else in the country, that's just insane, and not a standard that is sustainable.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

As the saying goes, inflation is too many dollars chasing too few goods.

Sadly, it seems likely that the "too many dollars" part of that equation is in for a dip at best or a crash at worst in the next few years. And as for the "too few goods" portion? I am still a pretty firm believer in capitalism. Capitalism abhors a vacuum - if there is money to be made, investors will figure it out. Right now people are clearly clamoring for more unique vacation venues. I think they will start to spring up - not necessarily in the form of theme parks, but in some form - and at that point Disney will have more meaningful competition to light a fire under their behinds.

Of course vacationing at Disney might always be a bit like buying real estate in Manhattan - you're not getting a sprawling McMansion for a reasonable price in Manhattan. Like ever. Similarly, it may always be the case that you pay Ritz Carlton prices to stay at a pretty average hotel room when at Disney. But just as people found alternatives to living in Manhattan that kept the prices down at least somewhat, I think the same will be true of Disney - prices may always be crazy, but I don't think the price to lack of customer service ratio will be what it is now. I mean at the moment you have the privilege of paying for $800 hotel rooms with no housekeeping and hours long waits if you want to speak to a customer service representative on the phone. Compared to an $800 hotel room almost anywhere else in the country, that's just insane, and not a standard that is sustainable.

Upside?…recessions have always tempered Disney parks and forced them to stay somewhat close to reality
Downside?…the last crash came within days -some say hours - of global financial meltdown and we are ginned up and long overdue (14 years)

Look at the covid lockdown…there SHOULD have been a deep recession triggered. But what happened? The wealthy told the global regulators “no!…we’re not losing money…no, no, no!” And they pumped the system artificially. $3T of tricks and games pumped in November 2019…BEFORE anyone bought a fashionable mask…then lots more gravy for the top after. Undisclosed cash payments to corporations in the hundreds of billions and even checks to the little people just to breathe.

What a world?!?!

 

[Lilofan]

Upside?…recessions have always tempered Disney parks and forced them to stay somewhat close to reality
Downside?…the last crash came within days -some say hours - of global financial meltdown and we are ginned up and long overdue (14 years)

Look at the covid lockdown…there SHOULD have been a deep recession triggered. But what happened? The wealthy told the global regulators “no!…we’re not losing money…no, no, no!” And they pumped the system artificially. $3T of tricks and games pumped in November 2019…BEFORE anyone bought a fashionable mask…then lots more gravy for the top after. Undisclosed cash payments to corporations in the hundreds of billions and even checks to the little people just to breathe.

What a world?!?!

Investors also made a killing if one bought DIS stock at the low in March 2020 for approx $86 per share. In less than 12 months, they were in the money when the stock shot up to over $170 per share.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Investors also made a killing if one bought DIS stock at the low in March 2020 for approx $86 per share. In less than 12 months, they were in the money when the stock shot up to over $170 per share.

Well that’s the point, isn’t it? Money on the way up…and the hedgers make money on the way down. It’s a casino where the house doesn’t make the rules.

Wall Street suffered ZERO pain in this…and at the beginning they got to Dump their labor…which gets a cigar and pat on the back from the brokerages. Who doesn’t love a rigged free market?

The one good thing now is that Labor ain’t cheap…so they boo boo like baldy Bob because they can’t buy workers for $0.10 down at the docks…

One good thing.

Oh well…enough “economics” on this economics thread

 

[Wilbret]

i honestly believe that disney is reaping the reward of NO ONE BEING ABLE TO GO ANYWHERE FOR A YEAR.. and after that the crap is gonna hit the fan... I think that these crowds are just people WHO NEED TO GO SOMEWHERE AND WE GO THERE NOW>. and after that we are going to evaluate the cost.. and the return benefits..

and after this year.. if the virus has subsided , people are going to reevaluate just how much has been lost, at Disney world, and how it is NO LONGER WALT'S disney world.. and then shareholders may be in for a big surprise..

heck right now I am crawling on my belly begging to go to the Previous Disney world.. JUST BECAUSE I HAVEN"T BEEN ANY WHERE IN TWO PLUS YEARS.. NO WHERE.. Heck I can count the times that I have been in my Local Walmart on TWO HANDS.. easily. and that's for the past two plus years.. in the past we could go to Walmart three times in a week.. have not been in Target ONCE in close to 3 years.. BESTBUY ONE TIME.. Heck I have been to the Doctor more then all of that..

No Bob Cheapskake is reaping the benefits people who are desperate .. We need to GO SOME WHERE>> please LETS GO SOME WHERE.. that's the current economics of WDW..

Might I ask where you are from that you haven't been able to go anywhere for 2 years? Was this self-imposed or what? It hasn't been that way in the Georgia/Florida. I agree there is a surge of people that just want to do things, but this is also sadly part of the new norm. I don't like it one bit, and it will impact how we spend our vacation dollar. We are DVC and 99% of the time we go, we don't set foot in a Disney park.

 

[Wilbret]

Well that’s the point, isn’t it? Money on the way up…and the hedgers make money on the way down. It’s a casino where the house doesn’t make the rules.

Wall Street suffered ZERO pain in this…and at the beginning they got to Dump their labor…which gets a cigar and pat on the back from the brokerages. Who doesn’t love a rigged free market?

The one good thing now is that Labor ain’t cheap…so they boo boo like baldy Bob because they can’t buy workers for $0.10 down at the docks…

One good thing.

Oh well…enough “economics” on this economics thread

So true. I worked for a Fortune 100 company during the start of the pandemic. They laid off a bunch of people, mostly senior level, and then came back with a scalpel to pick apart teams. I had a $500 million dollar portfolio of brands, and lost my VP, and 7 people on my team. I was literally having to go on sales calls that my VP would have been on, and our R&D team was left with ONE person. ONE! They believed we could just spread it out over other roles. LOL. They did this expecting the worst, and sales surged up over $100 million in the first 9 months after the pandemic. You'd think they'd hire people back, right? Nope! So when the first recruiter called me, I gladly answered the phone and changed jobs.

 

[JIMINYCR]

If there is something else that is so well contained and suited for families of all ages, and I mean from kids who are 3 to grandparents who are 73, I'd love to know about it because I'd go there just as much as WDW.

Well that’s the thing. There’s nothing exactly like Disney or any park that does things as well like Disney. But if you are willing to bypass FL and travel elsewhere there are many theme parks that can entertain kids and adults. Disney has the characters, the shows tied to movies, the attractions that drive you to them . You certainly can vacation elsewhere but no matter where you go it won’t compare. In these times it’s either settle for paying the costs, do with what is there now and don’t let the differences between now and the past discourage you or go elsewhere.
I agree with you that nothing is as suited for families like Disney but you can find places less Disney like and enjoyable. Lots of families are doing that who can’t do a Disney trip.

 

[JIMINYCR]

I don’t think people go to Disney parks because they need “somewhere” to go…

…but it’s shown on a daily basis that some people refuse to consider/defend the Walt Disney company because they don’t have the insight/courage to consider that it’s not what they are told it really is?

Life requires thought even in Leisure.

I did say people aren’t only going to Dis because they need somewhere to go.
And I agree… No one should do any trip that isn’t researched and understood what it entails or isn’t as it’s represented. People see Disney as to what’s being promoted on the commercials and don’t see further than what’s imagined. But then commercials are meant to put forth the best possible picture and the goal is to sell. Many TA’s also don’t do enough to explain what their travelers will encounter. With so much online it boggles me that people aren’t understanding there are negatives to a Dis trip. Dis does such a good job glossing over the negatives.
I’ve held off on doing several trips that after doing my own research found out details that I knew wouldn’t deliver me the kind of trip I thought I would have.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I did say people aren’t only going to Dis because they need somewhere to go.
And I agree… No one should do any trip that isn’t researched and understood what it entails or isn’t as it’s represented. People see Disney as to what’s being promoted on the commercials and don’t see further than what’s imagined. But then commercials are meant to put forth the best possible picture and the goal is to sell. Many TA’s also don’t do enough to explain what their travelers will encounter. With so much online it boggles me that people aren’t understanding there are negatives to a Dis trip. Dis does such a good job glossing over the negatives.
I’ve held off on doing several trips that after doing my own research found out details that I knew wouldn’t deliver me the kind of trip I thought I would have.

No I got you. Because we often disagree doesn’t make it “universal”

No pun intended.

Wdw has really good “bones”…That still draw people. What they built prior to the Bobs is still truly amazing. Stands the test of time.

Combine that with pent up demand and we don’t need to really search for answers.

 

[Wilbret]

Well that’s the thing. There’s nothing exactly like Disney or any park that does things as well like Disney. But if you are willing to bypass FL and travel elsewhere there are many theme parks that can entertain kids and adults. Disney has the characters, the shows tied to movies, the attractions that drive you to them . You certainly can vacation elsewhere but no matter where you go it won’t compare. In these times it’s either settle for paying the costs, do with what is there now and don’t let the differences between now and the past discourage you or go elsewhere.
I agree with you that nothing is as suited for families like Disney but you can find places less Disney like and enjoyable. Lots of families are doing that who can’t do a Disney trip.

What’s crazy is you can get…
SeaWorld season passes that include Aquatica
Legoland passes with water park and Merlin attractions
Universal annual pass
Zoo pass
Aquarium pass
Gatorland pass
Museum pass
Six Flags Pass
Carowinds pass

For less than Disney season pass. It’s nuts.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What’s crazy is you can get…
SeaWorld season passes that include Aquatica
Legoland passes with water park and Merlin attractions
Universal annual pass
Zoo pass
Aquarium pass
Gatorland pass
Museum pass
Six Flags Pass
Carowinds pass

For less than Disney season pass. It’s nuts.

Regionals are different…

But the close competitors are by far a better value/use and it wasn’t that way that long ago.

Disney is in a pricing “boxing ring” with its loyal customers throwing punches at their faces to see how many blows they’ll take. That’s far less hyperbolic than it seems.

And that is skirting that Disney isn’t even selling them. Which is undoubtedly another social experiment. It’s not covid staffing. Which I don’t know if anyone noticed by covid has basically been declared “over” as I write this.

 

[Wilbret]

Regionals are different…

But the close competitors are by far a better value/use and it wasn’t that way that long ago.

Disney is in a pricing “boxing ring” with its loyal customers throwing punches at their faces to see how many blows they’ll take. That’s far less hyperbolic than it seems.

And that is skirting that Disney isn’t even selling them. Which is undoubtedly another social experiment. It’s not covid staffing. Which I don’t know if anyone noticed by covid has basically been declared “over” as I write this.

Yeah, regionals are different, but when faced with the reality that one day in a park might cost your family $1000... it's a reality. Regionals also have more coasters and better coasters, so it can depend on your liking. I can tell my kids, hey, we can get Six Flags passes and spend 3 nights at the beach. And so on.

I just spent a long weekend with one of my kids to ride the new coaster at SeaWorld. I toyed with the idea of going to a park (either WDW or universal) for a day... and just laughed when looking at the ticket price.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yeah, regionals are different, but when faced with the reality that one day in a park might cost your family $1000... it's a reality. Regionals also have more coasters and better coasters, so it can depend on your liking. I can tell my kids, hey, we can get Six Flags passes and spend 3 nights at the beach. And so on.

I just spent a long weekend with one of my kids to ride the new coaster at SeaWorld. I toyed with the idea of going to a park (either WDW or universal) for a day... and just laughed when looking at the ticket price.

Oh I hear ya…

I was an annual for 10+ years…then went to more of an every 18-2 year thing…now it’s been 3 and isn’t really burning a whole in the soul. I’d get it if offered probably before other plans next year and after…but I’m not gonna beg for it.

And in recent years…almost did the universal pass but we were hesitant that we’d like it (had been about 18 years for me). Did a long weekend and loved it. The AB platinum is on the radar now. I love those parks even if they aren’t 100% comparable…

People will say: “there’s 10 people to take you’re place! Magic! Magic! Magic!”

Nice to think that in a vacuum but not really…

…The twenty+ years of overpriced Disney drinks and restaurants…the wedding bills…the timeshare…half of days Christmas on my third floor?

Ten people waiting, you say??

 

[Wilbret]

Oh I hear ya…

I was an annual for 10+ years…then went to more of an every 18-2 year thing…now it’s been 3 and isn’t really burning a whole in the soul. I’d get it if offered probably before other plans next year and after…but I’m not gonna beg for it.

And in recent years…almost did the universal pass but we were hesitant that we’d like it (had been about 18 years for me). Did a long weekend and loved it. The AB platinum is on the radar now. I love those parks even if they aren’t 100% comparable…

People will say: “there’s 10 people to take you’re place! Magic! Magic! Magic!”

Nice to think that in a vacuum but not really…

…The twenty+ years of overpriced Disney drinks and restaurants…the wedding bills…the timeshare…half of days Christmas on my third floor?

Ten people waiting, you say??

When Epic Universe opens, and Disney is still trying to finish up Tron... lol...

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

When Epic Universe opens, and Disney is still trying to finish up Tron... lol...

Can’t give away all the cows milk at once, right??

Which is an interesting theory - if it hadn’t been “for the 50th” on the calendar…no way they don’t shut down progress on tron, guardians and maybe even rat…none

 

[Lilofan]

Well that’s the point, isn’t it? Money on the way up…and the hedgers make money on the way down. It’s a casino where the house doesn’t make the rules.

Wall Street suffered ZERO pain in this…and at the beginning they got to Dump their labor…which gets a cigar and pat on the back from the brokerages. Who doesn’t love a rigged free market?

The one good thing now is that Labor ain’t cheap…so they boo boo like baldy Bob because they can’t buy workers for $0.10 down at the docks…

One good thing.

Oh well…enough “economics” on this economics thread

Stock prices not all can run up based purely on speculation and a lot of salesmanship . When to buy and sell based on "tips" happen too.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Stock prices not all can run up based purely on speculation and a lot of salesmanship . When to buy and sell based on "tips" happen too.

It’s done by supercomputer on fiber optic now…there’s no “lag” where you can get caught as a buyer/seller. The trades often dictate the direction they take…usually up.

Something drops $5 today…they pump it up to $10 the rest of the week…then do it again and again.

It’s technology as much as greed now.

Disney with 2,000,000,000 outstanding shares isn’t worth $150 in any legitimate sense…but the market is what it is so more power to everyone.

I mean…it was worth a small fraction of that not that long ago.

$6.99 a month to stream Bambi that boy a deal?

Hell…they can buy their own shares and then resell them to inflate the price. And do…constantly.

Things are what they are…no need to talk about it.

 

[WondersOfLife]

I'm shocked that nobody ever mentions just... Ya know... World population increase. For every 10,000 people... How many of those people are planning a trip to Disney World?... I've often thought about this.

Probably around 7.9 billion in 2022.... That's a lot of people.

Even the United States alone is crazy. We're at 334,805,269 people in 2022... And the USA population goes up 1.5-ish million people each year. Out of 1 million people, again, how many people are planning a vacation to WDW? It is no wonder prices keep going up and the parks still fill up. It is actually insane when you think about it by the numbers. Disney will ALWAYS have an audience SOMEWHERE at this rate.

 

[Wilbret]

Yeah, that's too many people on this planet!

World population is one thing, let's also note that millions have moved from the north/northeast to the south, and can now easily drive to Orlando if they don't live there already. I'm beginning to wonder who is left in NY state at this point.