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Survivor 43 Discussion Thread

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I'm not sure how I feel about it being predictable either way.

It's a game and you need to know the rules to play it. Too much unpredictability and no one can really develop strategy, as it's all so random.

On the other hand, the predictability means we see the game play out the same way. There's no tribe swap so the strong players are kept around for strength as that's the clear strategy. We've had two winners who played low key games to start and then pounce at the end.

The most balanced approach might be to establish what twists and advantages are in the game, but switch it up in terms of when they occur. Find that balance of players knowing the rules but having to adapt at surprising times. Knowing there might be a split but not knowing when. Knowing knowledge is power and idol nullifies might be in play, but not always. Etc. etc.
I agree. It's nice to know what's in the game, but they can't come in at the same exact time or it gets stale. One of the biggest complaints about HHH was the sudden introduction of final four fire making. I think the season would have been perceived much differently if the players and fans had known about it ahead of time.

But when you know exactly what advantage is coming and when, it makes it too easy to plan for. I think one thing they need to bring back is the swaps. The three tribe, no swap format is already old. That's one thing that makes things exciting. I can recall several times when players were speculating about when a swap would happen, but nobody knew for sure.
 

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
This was another good episode. From Noelle's comeback, to Jesse's master planning. It was a solid episode.

Starting with the reward challenge... If Jeff loved Cirie's balance beam moment, I wonder what he thought of Noelle. This was not forced, but a real, genuine moment. Maybe the best reward challenge comeback ever.

Jesse had a great episode. If he ends up winning, I feel like this is the episode we'll look back at as the reason why. His kid's quote about brining home the money, baby. His checklist for a blindside that went off perfectly. It was almost a too-good-to-be-true episode.

Jesse has to be the clear favorite to win. He has two idols, with only three votes left before the fire making. He has a strong ally in Cody, and seemingly a relationship with everyone. However, he has a massive target now. He's lucky he has two idols. But getting through one vote will even be hard for him. If he can win one immunity challenge, it could be game over for everyone else. If he does win, this will be the first "obvious" winner in the new era... which is exactly why I'm skeptical that he's the winner. I think he may be the Ricard/Omar.

Next week will be very interesting. The final 7 is an odd-numbered vote, which typically are more exciting. No Do or Die to ruin it. I think we could see a showdown between Karla and Jesse, and we may see an idol be played. If I remember correctly, we haven't seen an idol played successfully in the new era.

The end game of this season has been/will be leaps and bounds better than the early game.

Here are my updated winner rankings. This time I'm ranking them within the tiers.

Tier 1: The Favorites to Win
1. Jesse - Clear favorite if he gets to the end.
2. Karla - Playing a subtle game, and has just as many, if not more, connections than Jesse to the players on the jury.

Tier 2: Winner Potential
3. Sami - Been playing aggressively, but also seen as a flip-flopper. Not the most polished.
4. Cody - Solid game, but seen as a #2 to Jesse.
5. Cassidy - Sizeable gap here between Cassidy and Cody. I could see Cassidy winning if she can get rid of Karla and Jesse. But it looks very unlikely.
6. Gabler - If he can make a couple moves down the stretch to oust Jesse and/or Karla, I could see him being similar to Maryanne... underestimated. But just like Maryanne, I feel like it's a long shot. But she showed long shots can happen.

Tier 3: Probably Not
7. Owen - He's had no agency in this game. Nothing has gone right for him. I don't see him having any pull going forward.
 
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Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
Why does Jesse have two idols? I know he got Jeanine's but what was the other one? He's holding Cody's but it "isn't his"?

It's interesting that the question of "how is the show editing the eventual winner this time" is overshadowing evaluating the gameplay. At least it feels a bit that way to me.

Are we getting the yet another "big player almost makes it but goes home" edit for Jesse? Are we getting another "slow and steady until she strikes at the last minute" edit for Karla? Would they give us the same sort of outcome three seasons in a row? Granted, Karla has gotten a better edit than Erika did.
 

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Why does Jesse have two idols? I know he got Jeanine's but what was the other one? He's holding Cody's but it "isn't his"?

It's interesting that the question of "how is the show editing the eventual winner this time" is overshadowing evaluating the gameplay. At least it feels a bit that way to me.

Are we getting the yet another "big player almost makes it but goes home" edit for Jesse? Are we getting another "slow and steady until she strikes at the last minute" edit for Karla? Would they give us the same sort of outcome three seasons in a row? Granted, Karla has gotten a better edit than Erika did.
Technically it's Jesse's idol because Cody gave it to him. Cody has no power to use it. Now, if Cody asks for it back, Jesse almost has to give it back if he wants to get jury votes. But also... how has Cody not asked for it back yet? Especially with James gone.
 

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
This was another really good episode. The end game of this season is shaping up to be fantastic, after one of the more boring pre-merges we've had in quite a while. Honestly maybe one of the worst pre-merges since Caramoan. But I'm glad it's better now.

The advantage hunt was fun. Zach Wurtenberger and Chrissy were speculating on Twitter that they couldn't find it because the camera person was standing in front of it, blocking it. Chrissy added that by day 20 they don't look at the cameras anymore. However, many people also said, if you're looking for an advantage... LOOK AT WHERE THE CAMERAS ARE POINTING! If you're out of frame, or they aren't close up, you aren't going to find it. They need that shot. But it was still funny watching them all walk right past it, even if the advantage probably didn't make a difference.

I love that they brought back this challenge. It's a classic, even though it's only been run four times before. The last time they ran it was in Caramoan when Brenda won. That was my first Survivor season, so I think it helps solidify it as a top notch challenge for me. I don't think I liked how they gave two people immunity. Ultimately it added to the excitement of the vote, but as a Survivor purist, I thought they should have ridden it out. I love challenges that last hours upon hours. That's what happens when you have a 26 day season. You can't afford to have a challenge go long because you'll throw off the whole production cycle. Dalton Ross was speculating that they added this rule after Christian went on for hours in his immunity win and pushed the entire production cycle back a full day because of it.

I think Jesse is one of the most subtly cutthroat players we've even had on Survivor, and I love it. He is willing to cut anyone and put blood on anyone's hands. But he's so subtle and nobody points at him. He almost reminds me of Kim. He has great connections to everyone. He is seemingly calling all the shots, but nobody is looking at him. He doesn't quite have the charm, but I mean... who's more charming that Kim? Parvati is the only one I can think of that is on her same level.

As it stands now, Jesse could keep Cody's idol and get himself to final four fire making. I still don't know why Cody hasn't asked for it back. Maybe it comes to a head soon, but for some reason I feel like it's not going to happen.

Karla is safe at one of the next two votes. I think she could play it at 6, since I think her name will come up along with Cassidy. I can see it being Karla vs Cassidy next.

I tried playing the rest of the season out in my head, but it's so hard with immunities and fire making. I think Jesse will make it to fire. I think there's a potential for Karla to be the "fallen angel" at the final 5. But I also think there's a potential for Karla to continue the underdog edit and win fire. Regardless, here are my updated winner rankings:

Tier 1: The Favorites to Win
1. Jesse - Duh?
2. Karla - Duh #2?

Tier 2: Winner Potential
3. Cassidy - Cassidy could get credit for taking Karla out. She could get to the end without Jesse if he loses fire. She would have a big move and be up against a combination of players who don't have a big move to their names.
4. Gabler - He's has more agency in this game than initially realized.

Tier 3: Probably Not
5. Cody - It's starting to be harder for me to see him win. He has been in lockstep with Jesse, but everything is being seen through Jesse's eyes. Cody didn't get his way this week. I could see him as the decoy winner and second place finish.
6. Owen - He's had no agency in the game. Could certainly see him as an uneventful boot, or a fire loser, or a zero vote finalist. But a winner is hard to see.
 

Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
It's weird that they don't have a tie breaker for the challenge ready, especially when we're down to 7. Why not just have them go under water and the last person up wins? It would take all of 2 minutes. It couldn't be more unsafe than the challenge as is, could it?

I was hoping they moved the final 5 advantage forward to this episode, because that one is overpowered. It would have fit well here to leave the end game as pure as is possible in a modern season of Survivor.

Jeff pre-emptively doing the high tide low tide analogy before we get another comparison to something like heart surgery that no one understands is low key hilarious.
 

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
It's weird that they don't have a tie breaker for the challenge ready, especially when we're down to 7. Why not just have them go under water and the last person up wins? It would take all of 2 minutes. It couldn't be more unsafe than the challenge as is, could it?

I was hoping they moved the final 5 advantage forward to this episode, because that one is overpowered. It would have fit well here to leave the end game as pure as is possible in a modern season of Survivor.

Jeff pre-emptively doing the high tide low tide analogy before we get another comparison to something like heart surgery that no one understands is low key hilarious.
First, the analogies have become a running joke amongst the Survivor community. On RHAP they often throw out a random word and try to make it an analogy. Last know on the Know It Alls, Rob made analogies comparing Survivor to the Queen of England and Twinkies.

Second, I felt like they should have had a tie breaker. Two immunities at this point is game changing, and almost feels like production interference. Make them not hold their nose. Make them hold on with just one hand. Something.
 

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