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Stock Market Chatter

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
I think an economics lesson might do you some good. Perhaps start with the consequences of a sudden and drastic increase in M1 without a corresponding increase in productivity and production.
You may be singing a different tune if your prediction doesn't ring true.
Fyi - your portfolio can be exposed , no diversified international / emerging markets exposure? You've got all your eggs in the domestic stock market to include pot stocks. Your money but I wouldn't be in your positions.
 
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Laketravis

Well-Known Member
You may be singing a different tune if your prediction doesn't ring true.

It's not my prediction. It's basic economics.

Fyi - your portfolio can be exposed , no diversified international / emerging markets exposure?

If you read my post you'll note that I said that is my "sandbox" - basically play money for very speculative but long-term holdings.

It's certainly not my entire portfolio by any stretch.
 

Laketravis

Well-Known Member
I think many people are going to learn the difference between deferred and forgiven rent payments.

Yeah - just like the millions of people who didn't realize those substantial unemployment benefits are taxed just like regular income.

On another note. I've heard that mortgage forbearance is being reported to the credit reporting agencies.
 

Nubs70

Premium Member
Yeah - just like the millions of people who didn't realize those substantial unemployment benefits are taxed just like regular income.

On another note. I've heard that mortgage forbearance is being reported to the credit reporting agencies.
During rental deferrance, can the landlord raise rent?
 

October82

Well-Known Member
Increased supply of money without increased amount of goods?

We will now have an increased and more supply of money with a decreased amount of goods.

Inflation isn't caused by there being an increased money supply without an increased amount of goods, it's caused by the lag in the supply of goods responding to the increase in the money supply. In a demand shock driven recession, we don't generically expect to see that sort of lag. Inflation indicators are generally weak, and there isn't an expectation of inflation to even reach targeted/desirable levels in the foreseeable future.
 

Willmark

Well-Known Member
Not surprising. Airlines didn't crater for any reason related to their business, but because of the pandemic. And revenues will continue to rise (while not looking like they did a little over a year ago right away) so this is just smart business. This is the reason why I 'like' AMC as a stock because theaters will see a significant rise in revenue as well probably in the 2H of 2021.
IMO movie theathers are on borrowed time already. Add in the pandemic and I can easiely see them never recovering..
 

Willmark

Well-Known Member
Inflation isn't caused by there being an increased money supply without an increased amount of goods, it's caused by the lag in the supply of goods responding to the increase in the money supply. In a demand shock driven recession, we don't generically expect to see that sort of lag. Inflation indicators are generally weak, and there isn't an expectation of inflation to even reach targeted/desirable levels in the foreseeable future.
You've said this before, what leads you to believe this?
 

October82

Well-Known Member
You've said this before, what leads you to believe this?

Yeah, happy to talk more about that. Demand shock recessions are defined by a leftward shift in the demand curve while the supply curve remains fixed. We generally think of increases in the money supply as impacting demand, with the goal of shifting the demand curve back to equilibrium. Especially in the covid recession, we haven't seen a corresponding change in the supply curve outside of specific industries. So we will likely see increases in price level in certain industries, like travel, but since these industries can generally respond quickly to shifts in demand, there isn't an expectation of widespread or prolonged inflation.
 

Lensman

Premium Member
I think an economics lesson might do you some good. Perhaps start with the consequences of a sudden and drastic increase in M1 without a corresponding increase in productivity and production.
That's not gospel. I'm not saying it can't be right, nor that it's not something to watch out for.

You don't need to read this, but I want to post it for others.
 

MinnieM123

Premium Member
Yeah - just like the millions of people who didn't realize those substantial unemployment benefits are taxed just like regular income.

That's something I never could understand, actually. Generally speaking, unemployment money is not even close to a regular salary that (many) people earned, when they had a job. (I "think" it's something like 60% of what people made, during the employment before layoffs.)

Hence, if a person was trying to make ends meet on 60%, or thereabouts, I would think it would be extremely difficult for most to have to come up with tax money. (There are various exceptions, of course, and not to mention those with savings accounts, investments, etc., that they could pull from -- if they hadn't depleted those already, during an extensively long layoff.)

My suggestion would be some sort of sliding scale tax model for the unemployed. Now, for those who did find employment (maybe within the past 6 months), they could be asked to pay "some" tax money on their previous unemployment income; and perhaps there could be some sort of payment plan, spread over months. But for people who had not found a new job yet, I don't think it's appropriate to charge them any tax yet.
 

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
That's something I never could understand, actually. Generally speaking, unemployment money is not even close to a regular salary that (many) people earned, when they had a job. (I "think" it's something like 60% of what people made, during the employment before layoffs.)

Hence, if a person was trying to make ends meet on 60%, or thereabouts, I would think it would be extremely difficult for most to have to come up with tax money. (There are various exceptions, of course, and not to mention those with savings accounts, investments, etc., that they could pull from -- if they hadn't depleted those already, during an extensively long layoff.)

My suggestion would be some sort of sliding scale tax model for the unemployed. Now, for those who did find employment (maybe within the past 6 months), they could be asked to pay "some" tax money on their previous unemployment income; and perhaps there could be some sort of payment plan, spread over months. But for people who had not found a new job yet, I don't think it's appropriate to charge them any tax yet.
This is exactly why I had them deduct taxes from my husband's unemployment while he was collecting.
 

MinnieM123

Premium Member
This is exactly why I had them deduct taxes from my husband's unemployment while he was collecting.

Good move. (And at least you were working while he was unemployed. I'm sure it was tight, but you two got by in lean times.) My heart goes out even more to those who do not have someone at home who could help financially.
 

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
Good move. (And at least you were working while he was unemployed. I'm sure it was tight, but you two got by in lean times.) My heart goes out even more to those who do not have someone at home who could help financially.
Nope...I wasn't working. I had just started looking for a job a couple of weeks before the pandemic hit.
 

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
Oh my. Sorry, that must have been a very stressful time for the both of you. :(
No worries. It's been extremely stressful. Child care for my sons is upwards of $30 per hour because of their autism and was hard to find before everyone was looking for new means of child care...now it's near impossible, not to mention I'd need to be making a fortune to warrant paying that much. I've been generating a little income from home...it's not enough yet, but I think it'll get there.
 

Laketravis

Well-Known Member
During rental deferrance, can the landlord raise rent?

Not sure, but then there's this:


And according to a Census Bureau survey, an estimated 10 million renters were behind on their rent and at risk of eviction in the middle of January, while an estimated 16 million renters had little to no confidence they could pay their rent in February.

 

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