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Stock Market Chatter

Lensman

Premium Member
I've got my 401/IRA entirely in the Vanguard Total Stock Market fund. Retirement is still a couple decades away, and for me having bonds in the portfolio is just going to hurt my long-term gains in favor of lower volatility in the shorter-term. I'll shift the allocation in like 15 years or so when retirement is closer.
Word of advice, prolong decisions is the worst mistake you can make. Do it now, diversify into different categories - small cap, mid cap, large cap, emerging markets . You wait 15 more years than you have the potential to miss out on gains. Retirement doesn't need to be decades away. Think and practice to get to FIRE ( Financially Independent Retire Early )
I don't think your advice is to @Mr Bill in particular, but I did want to address it in case @Mr Bill is confused by it.

The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund is an all-cap domestic (U.S.) equity fund, so it contains small, mid, and large cap at market weight. The diversifications that @Mr Bill might consider are:
1. International - allocate between zero and forty percent of your equity allocation to international equities. My recommendation would be the Vanguard Total International Stock Index fund, as it is a low cost, broad-based index fund that contains both developed market equities and emerging market equities, and also contains large, mid, and small caps. There are several acceptable strategies for determining what you want your allocation to international to be - all the way from "I don't want any" to "market weight." I allocate based on minimizing risk, so I end up at about 20% international.
2. Bonds - it's usually the case that even if your investment horizon is 40 years, your recommended allocation to bonds is at least 10%. The small drag on your portfolio return is somewhat mitigated by a small return from rebalancing when stock prices take a dive. The main reason for a bond allocation, though, is to keep you from selling stocks during a downturn. That said, I don't personally have issues with someone like @Mr Bill with a long investment horizon being 100% equities.

One last piece of advice: If you're looking for a good place for your fixed-income allocation, you should look at U.S. Savings Bonds. If anyone is interested I can go into why they're such a good deal nowadays.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
I don't think your advice is to @Mr Bill in particular, but I did want to address it in case @Mr Bill is confused by it.

The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund is an all-cap domestic (U.S.) equity fund, so it contains small, mid, and large cap at market weight. The diversifications that @Mr Bill might consider are:
1. International - allocate between zero and forty percent of your equity allocation to international equities. My recommendation would be the Vanguard Total International Stock Index fund, as it is a low cost, broad-based index fund that contains both developed market equities and emerging market equities, and also contains large, mid, and small caps. There are several acceptable strategies for determining what you want your allocation to international to be - all the way from "I don't want any" to "market weight." I allocate based on minimizing risk, so I end up at about 20% international.
2. Bonds - it's usually the case that even if your investment horizon is 40 years, your recommended allocation to bonds is at least 10%. The small drag on your portfolio return is somewhat mitigated by a small return from rebalancing when stock prices take a dive. The main reason for a bond allocation, though, is to keep you from selling stocks during a downturn. That said, I don't personally have issues with someone like @Mr Bill with a long investment horizon being 100% equities.

One last piece of advice: If you're looking for a good place for your fixed-income allocation, you should look at U.S. Savings Bonds. If anyone is interested I can go into why they're such a good deal nowadays.
I would say the younger you are the more allocation you need to be invested in equities. Too many ones I know want to live the good life in their life after school and they regret investing at a later age. The 20% of the portfolio invested in international is a good thing. I never had a plan to invest for 40 years. I risked a lot while others I knew panicked, pulled out during the downturns in the markets.
 

Laketravis

Well-Known Member
Asset allocation below or beyond a particular range has little additional protection or return probabilities. Meaning, the historic 60/40 recommendation still provides the best combination of risk vs. reward and moving to 70/30 or 80/20 does not substantially increase returns in proportion to risk while moving to 40/60 or 30/70 decreases returns but does not necessarily provide less risk.

Probably the best retirement calculator I've used for the better part of a decade, calculations are based on actual market performance for over 100 years. Adjusting asset allocations and percentage of success will illustrate the point I've tried to convey above:

 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
The TWDC earnings call with Wall Street is today at 430pm EDT. The Disney stock is on fire during the pandemic. The stock is up 60% in the last three months.
 

milordsloth

Well-Known Member
The TWDC earnings call with Wall Street is today at 430pm EDT. The Disney stock is on fire during the pandemic. The stock is up 60% in the last three months.

Is the huge rise in the last few months mostly thanks to Disney+? Or are there other factors in there as well? With parks still closed I've been surprised the stock has done this well. I've been holding DIS since April last year and very happy with the performance.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Is the huge rise in the last few months mostly thanks to Disney+? Or are there other factors in there as well? With parks still closed I've been surprised the stock has done this well. I've been holding DIS since April last year and very happy with the performance.
I would think it is due to Disney + and Wall Street loves when a company re-orgs to include layoffs and restructuring .
 

milordsloth

Well-Known Member
Anyone here have any bitcoin? I finally sold the 1 bitcoin today that I bought on Christmas 2018. What a ride. I'll buy back in a bit on the next dip.
 

Laketravis

Well-Known Member
Anyone here have any bitcoin? I finally sold the 1 bitcoin today that I bought on Christmas 2018. What a ride. I'll buy back in a bit on the next dip.

I'm sorry but I laughed at that - you bought "1" bitcoin? Kuddos to you. I dumped $10k into pot this week and am already down 40% but I'm holding it for no less than ten years so...............
 

milordsloth

Well-Known Member
I'm sorry but I laughed at that - you bought "1" bitcoin? Kuddos to you. I dumped $10k into pot this week and am already down 40% but I'm holding it for no less than ten years so...............
Haha yup! I bought 1 for roughly $4,000. One of my best decisions and so glad I held onto it. I have a feeling it will see a correction soon and I'll invest a bit more.

And I'm sure the pot will do fine in the long run, I'm also down on that with what I bought this week.
 

Laketravis

Well-Known Member
Haha yup! I bought 1 for roughly $4,000. One of my best decisions and so glad I held onto it. I have a feeling it will see a correction soon and I'll invest a bit more.

LOL that's cool. I've got a little tiny bit of my investments that I use for fun money to dump into stuff that may rise dramatically or fall substantially - the best bet is to hold onto them for the long term.
 

milordsloth

Well-Known Member
LOL that's cool. I've got a little tiny bit of my investments that I use for fun money to dump into stuff that may rise dramatically or fall substantially - the best bet is to hold onto them for the long term.
Agreed! In general I seem to fail when I try to do the "get rich quick" purchases (gambles) but my long holds have all been pretty successful, whether stocks or crypto. I really should not have bought GME at the peak 🤣
 

Club Cooloholic

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
LOL that's cool. I've got a little tiny bit of my investments that I use for fun money to dump into stuff that may rise dramatically or fall substantially - the best bet is to hold onto them for the long term.
There are some good crypto stocks. I got some in MARA, ARBKF, SOS....RIOT(dont have any of that)
 

Laketravis

Well-Known Member
Well tesla dropping from its highs is starting to get costly everyday, But everytime I sold some I ended up regrettting it

Yeah it's mainly tech taking the hit. Look at cruise companies, airlines, hospitality. Big bets on pent up demand for later this year. In fact, 2021 GDP growth is expected to be 8-10% or more followed by another 5-7% in 2022. Some even believe those numbers to be conservative.
 

Club Cooloholic

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Yeah it's mainly tech taking the hit. Look at cruise companies, airlines, hospitality. Big bets on pent up demand for later this year. In fact, 2021 GDP growth is expected to be 8-10% or more followed by another 5-7% in 2022. Some even believe those numbers to be conservative.
Yeah, I worry about that demand, I have a mother in law who is vaccinated but says "well I am still worried about variants of COVID". Things will bounce back, but people need to be realistic that it wont be quite what it was. Especially airline and hotel travel, which depends so much on business class travel. Companies are not holding those sales meetings and conventions right now, and some might skip it all together in the future.
 

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