News Reflections – A Disney Lakeside Lodge (Project 89 - Development near Fort Wilderness)

[wedenterprises]

Sorry...river country...as in it’s being built ontop of the defunct river country water park

ohhhhhhh right. duh.
thanks.

While I'm here, my two cents is that it will certainly be delayed a long while but not cancelled. What interests me is if the designs change at all, even if it's just interior or theming/name etc. and the structure itself remains the same.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

ohhhhhhh right. duh.
thanks.

While I'm here, my two cents is that it will certainly be delayed a long while but not cancelled. What interests me is if the designs change at all, even if it's just interior or theming/name etc. and the structure itself remains the same.

I agree completely.

“Mixed use” reminds me of Aulani...dvc be weary of that.

 

[peter11435]

I agree completely.

“Mixed use” reminds me of Aulani...dvc be weary of that.

Or boardwalk which was mixed use from the start and remains that way. Not sure why you are weary of it reminding you of Aulani besides potentially the faulty financials. Aulani is well executed and the best resort Disney has constructed in decades.

 

[MikeyK72]

I agree with others here who have pointed out that the location for this new DVC resort is great but the theme seems to be underwhelming. I'm right there with you...as a DVC member, I'm not really excited about this resort at all based on what has been released so far.

I would expect this new resort to have a nice restaurant, perhaps even a Signature, which would be great now that we've lost Artist Point. And I'll certainly go to see it when it opens and surely dine there if indeed a Signature is offered...but again based on what has been shared so far not feeling like I'd even want to stay there.

I also wonder if having what would now be a third resort in that area would spark them to add a Skyliner station connecting to maybe TTC or something? I'd welcome that addition...would be nice to have a faster way to WL area from the monorail loop other than a boat.

 

[carolina_yankee]

Everything you said makes a lot sense...except this: they may not be able to hold/maintain the sale prices and that will influence their decisions greatly...

DVC is not an elite country club...it’s probably in the range of 400,000 contracts that include a lot of what can be classified now as “middle class” incomes. Resell demand will plummet with price and the initial prices direct are bubble fueled insanity as is.

They will continue it...but a pause is probably warranted from their perspective.

And of course everyone moved their trips...we can’t be without or fixes!!! But that is very different than gauging new demand for contracts that start at about $25,000.

No doubt the pace of Riviera's sales will influence the timeline, but I would be shocked if Disney completely scrapped the project. They would have to start all over from scratch. DVC is probably the biggest cash cow they have after $18 hotdogs.

Of course nobody knows what the economy will look like and what recovery will look like or how long it will take, but talk of the demise of Reflections (and I'm not a fan of the resort for various reasons) is just as premature as talk of its success.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Or boardwalk which was mixed use from the start and remains that way. Not sure why you are weary of it reminding you of Aulani besides potentially the faulty financials. Aulani is well executed and the best resort Disney has constructed in decades.

Except they’re still selling it...which is absolutely not the goal of dvc.

Boardwalk is in the best spot of any Disney hotel property really anywhere...and that project had tons of construction problems and was a headache as well.

But what I’m talking about is this:
If they needed 400 more high priced hotels rooms...why let four seasons build? Why convert rack at 5 or so locations already?

They don’t need regular rooms...they can’t sell them to the level required as is.

This new development is what happens in a bubble: they get greedy and overdo it.

Happens at pop...it happens with 950 rooms at Saratoga...

It Happens.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I agree with others here who have pointed out that the location for this new DVC resort is great but the theme seems to be underwhelming. I'm right there with you...as a DVC member, I'm not really excited about this resort at all based on what has been released so far.

I would expect this new resort to have a nice restaurant, perhaps even a Signature, which would be great now that we've lost Artist Point. And I'll certainly go to see it when it opens and surely dine there if indeed a Signature is offered...but again based on what has been shared so far not feeling like I'd even want to stay there.

I also wonder if having what would now be a third resort in that area would spark them to add a Skyliner station connecting to maybe TTC or something? I'd welcome that addition...would be nice to have a faster way to WL area from the monorail loop other than a boat.

I have zero desire to stay at the last 3 spots announced and/or constructed...for a variety of reasons. The last I liked was the poly and I don’t like that as much as the GF before that.

 

[Josh Hendy]

They don’t need regular rooms...they can’t sell them to the level required as is.

This new development is what happens in a bubble: they get greedy and overdo it.

Yep that says it all. It's a manifestation of the Great Credit Bubble. Federal Reserve creates pretend money from nothing and lends it at 1 or 2 % to banks. Who lend it to TWDC at higher interest, who build timeshare condos, and lend at even higher interest to timeshare buyers who are already submerged in debt (mortgage, auto, student, credit card).

Double down, and repeat until credit bubble bursts.

The fix: "We need lower interest rates, yay for more debt!"

To me, all of the recent new DVC developments have a major "What Were They Thinking?" component.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yep that says it all. It's a manifestation of the Great Credit Bubble. Federal Reserve creates pretend money from nothing and lends it at 1 or 2 % to banks. Who lend it to TWDC at higher interest, who build timeshare condos, and lend at even higher interest to timeshare buyers who are already submerged in debt (mortgage, auto, student, credit card).

Double down, and repeat until credit bubble bursts.

The fix: "We need lower interest rates, yay for more debt!"

To me, all of the recent new DVC developments have a major "What Were They Thinking?" component.

The Caribbean beach one is 100% a social experiment. With the skyliner it’s actually a social experiment inside another social experiment.

They are seeing how far people will go...aka will they severely overpay for the merits of a property? For the right to overpay for tickets? For the privilege to overpay for upsells? To overpay for food? To then have the privilege of paying upfront for food they may not consume at hyperinflation?

Like mice in the maze. Ring a buzzer and drop the cheese

 

[the.dreamfinder]

What would happen to DVC if there is an extended period of time where the deluxes, particularly Monorail Loop and Crescent Lake, are dramatically cheaper?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What would happen to DVC if there is an extended period of time where the deluxes, particularly Monorail Loop and Crescent Lake, are dramatically cheaper?

They would convert more to drive the demand/price up so you would have to pay more and/or buy more dvc...

Hence...I give you the “copper creek story”

 

[the.dreamfinder]

They would convert more to drive the demand/price up so you would have to pay more and/or buy more dvc...

Hence...I give you the “copper creek story”

That’s if consumer debt markets don’t dry up.

 

[Josh Hendy]

Would I be correct in guessing, along with cruise lines, timeshare condos are among the least likely sectors of the economy to be bailed out? Assuming that any kind logic or sense is applied to bailouts which I admit is a long shot.

 

[peter11435]

Would I be correct in guessing, along with cruise lines, timeshare condos are among the least likely sectors of the economy to be bailed out? Assuming that any kind logic or sense is applied to bailouts which I admit is a long shot.

I think your are correct that they are less likely to receive bailout money. Although I’m not sure why logic or sense should dictate they and cruise lines should be allowed to fail any more than other non essential industries.

 

[Jon81uk]

I have no insider information to offer on the subject but would like to say that I'm surprised Disney hasn't converted some of Coronado Springs into DVC yet (in a similar way they did for Poly). Who knows, that may be on the table at some point in the future.

Coronado Springs has a lot of convention business, the new tower is to meet the needs of the convention goers. They don't need to add DVC there.

 

[seascape]

Coronado Springs has a lot of convention business, the new tower is to meet the needs of the convention goers. They don't need to add DVC there.

I think you mean Coronado Springs used to have lots of Convention business and didn't need to add DVC there. However today things are different. I can see them converting sections of all the moderates to DVC. If they learn anything from Covid19 it is that having DVC members it guarantees the themeparks attendance. Watch for Universal to do the same.

 

[TrojanUSC]

Coronado Springs has a lot of convention business, the new tower is to meet the needs of the convention goers. They don't need to add DVC there.

Exactly. That's the only reason it was built. Conventioneers didn't want to trek through the rain and/or walk 15 minutes to get to their meeting location.

 

[Jon81uk]

I think you mean Coronado Springs used to have lots of Convention business and didn't need to add DVC there. However today things are different. I can see them converting sections of all the moderates to DVC. If they learn anything from Covid19 it is that having DVC members it guarantees the themeparks attendance. Watch for Universal to do the same.

Why did they build a new tower specifically for convention-goers if they don't get convention business? Yes we don't know the effect of Covid-19 yet, but Disney saw business at Coronado to be good enough to specifically add a business orientated hotel tower.

 

[seascape]

Why did they build a new tower specifically for convention-goers if they don't get convention business? Yes we don't know the effect of Covid-19 yet, but Disney saw business at Coronado to be good enough to specifically add a business orientated hotel tower.

Yes, they built it for conversation business. However, that business will take years to get back to the 2019 level. Businesses must change or die. I was reading an analysis this morning that in 2021 WDW will only get half the attendance they had in 2019. I disagree with it because of the DVC factor but the will still be lucky to get 80% of the 2019 level in 2021.

 

[Ripken10]

Yes, they built it for conversation business. However, that business will take years to get back to the 2019 level. Businesses must change or die. I was reading an analysis this morning that in 2021 WDW will only get half the attendance they had in 2019. I disagree with it because of the DVC factor but the will still be lucky to get 80% of the 2019 level in 2021.

Just as a note, I read an analysis that said the opposite. While 2020 will be hurt, the analysis said the opposite for 2021. Point being, nobody really knows. Certain sectors are getting hard by this, but this not true of all sectors. This is very different than the great depression, and that's why all anybody can do is predict, and that's why so many analyst are very different on how this will go in recovery.

An example - touringplans had an article up talking about the first 8 to 10 weeks after Disney returns their findings show there will be lower attendance, but after that you would see 3 months of larger than normal attendance. It is just so hard to predict since economically this is going to hit certain people a lot harder than others.