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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

WDWMAGIC News Robot

New Member
Original Poster
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019


000
FONT11 KNHC 181449
PWSAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019
1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15)

GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 23(34) X(34) X(34)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19)

CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) X(30) X(30)
CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 18(39) X(39) X(39)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 15(38) X(38) X(38)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 8(33) X(33) X(33)
SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 6(33) X(33) X(33)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 5(41) X(41) X(41)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25)
FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)

LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 28(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 21(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) 12(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

KINGS BAY GA 34 X 5( 5) 22(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)

WAYCROSS GA 34 X 8( 8) 36(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 8( 8) 15(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X 6( 6) 21(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)

GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 11(11) 17(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)

THE VILLAGES 34 X 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)

ORLANDO FL 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

PATRICK AFB 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

FT MYERS FL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

VENICE FL 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

TAMPA FL 34 X 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 27(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 42(42) 27(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)

ST MARKS FL 34 1 45(46) 23(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
ST MARKS FL 50 X 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)

APALACHICOLA 34 17 68(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
APALACHICOLA 50 X 15(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
APALACHICOLA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 30 54(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 18 66(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

DESTIN EXEC AP 34 14 41(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

COLUMBUS GA 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

WHITING FLD FL 34 1 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)

PENSACOLA FL 34 1 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 82 12(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 4 21(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

MOBILE AL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

GULFPORT MS 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

GFMX 280N 890W 34 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

GFMX 280N 910W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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