Now that Aulani is open...

[toolsnspools]

Now that Aulani is open, I expect them to break ground on the National Harbor DVC soon. I'm sure the paperwork problem they had with Aulani will need to be fully vetted first, but as soon as that's complete, they should be ready for their next off-site location to start. I can see a trend where they are continually working on an on-site DVC and an off-site DVC, at least for the foreseeable future. No insider information here. This is just my observance of how they seem to be doing business.

Anyone else have thoughts on this?

 

[Pioneer Hall]

Now that Aulani is open, I expect them to break ground on the National Harbor DVC soon. I'm sure the paperwork problem they had with Aulani will need to be fully vetted first, but as soon as that's complete, they should be ready for their next off-site location to start. I can see a trend where they are continually working on an on-site DVC and an off-site DVC, at least for the foreseeable future. No insider information here. This is just my observance of how they seem to be doing business.

Anyone else have thoughts on this?

I have to disagree with this. Even with the fiasco with the dues that they had, sales were not nearly what Disney had hoped before that. I think that Aulani is going to have to show that a DVC mega resort like this can really stand on its own before they go and build another one. If the National Harbor resort does come to fruition I would look at about a 10 year horizon. There are too many points on the table right now, and GF villas will be added to that before you know it.

 

[wdwfan22]

Now that Aulani is open, I expect them to break ground on the National Harbor DVC soon. I'm sure the paperwork problem they had with Aulani will need to be fully vetted first, but as soon as that's complete, they should be ready for their next off-site location to start. I can see a trend where they are continually working on an on-site DVC and an off-site DVC, at least for the foreseeable future. No insider information here. This is just my observance of how they seem to be doing business.

Anyone else have thoughts on this?

I would be very surprised if the National Harbor Resort comes into play anytime soon. Aulani has had very weak sales so far. I think it will take at least 5 years before a decision can be made on whether or not to begin that project.

 

[tjkraz]

Even with the fiasco with the dues that they had, sales were not nearly what Disney had hoped before that.

Your comment has piqued my curiosity. How exactly have Aulani sales compared to Disney's estimates?

I don't expect to see any movement on National Harbor until Disney has a couple years' worth of data on point sales and cash room occupancy for Aulani.

Disney doesn't have much invested in National Harbor. They only spent around $10 million for the land. The Aulani land cost 10x that much, not to mention the high construction costs. Disney could re-sell the National Harbor land and at worst only take a modest loss on the transaction.

Disney may be at something of a crossroads with DVC. DVC points increasingly cost more than those from other timeshare systems and DVC's dues also tend to be higher. The refrain you hear over and over again is to only buy DVC for use at theme park destinations. Non-park destinations do help the entire program, but Disney is a massive publicly-held company and I don't see them continuing to sink money into remote facilities unless they can realistically expect them to be money makers.

 

[Pioneer Hall]

Your comment has piqued my curiosity. How exactly have Aulani sales compared to Disney's estimates?

I don't expect to see any movement on National Harbor until Disney has a couple years' worth of data on point sales and cash room occupancy for Aulani.

Disney doesn't have much invested in National Harbor. They only spent around $10 million for the land. The Aulani land cost 10x that much, not to mention the high construction costs. Disney could re-sell the National Harbor land and at worst only take a modest loss on the transaction.

Disney may be at something of a crossroads with DVC. DVC points increasingly cost more than those from other timeshare systems and DVC's dues also tend to be higher. The refrain you hear over and over again is to only buy DVC for use at theme park destinations. Non-park destinations do help the entire program, but Disney is a massive publicly-held company and I don't see them continuing to sink money into remote facilities unless they can realistically expect them to be money makers.

It is what I heard from a couple of people privy to DVC information. Of course, when information gets passed it is possible that it isn't accurate. I heard sales weren't as strong as they had hoped and with the recent events in Japan had impacted what they hoped to get from that country (at least in the mean time). You are definitely more of an expert when it comes to these matters, so you might know better than I do. Just stating what I have heard through some sources.

 

[tjkraz]

It is what I heard from a couple of people privy to DVC information. Of course, when information gets passed it is possible that it isn't accurate. I heard sales weren't as strong as they had hoped and with the recent events in Japan had impacted what they hoped to get from that country (at least in the mean time). You are definitely more of an expert when it comes to these matters, so you might know better than I do. Just stating what I have heard through some sources.

OK, just curious since you sounded so definitive.

It's not a stretch to think that sales have been disappointing thus far...particularly since they haven't been able to sell at all for nearly 2 months.

But the real test is yet to come and there is still room for some optimism. Remember until now all they have been doing is selling an incomplete product. At best they gave some buyers hard hat tours. Most just got to see modified model rooms located thousands of miles away.

From this point forward, every night of the week they will have hundreds--perhaps thousands--of cash guests staying at the resort. They'll be booking weddings, conventions, tour groups. Some will get really good discount rates but they'll still be paying more than at many other timeshares where guests are given free stays to lure them in. Disney Cruise Line will be coming to the islands. DVC members will use their points to book at 7 months and some will undoubtedly add-on.

If Aulani is able to meet or exceed the expectations of those cash guests and DVC members, the resort could start selling itself. The pitch really is a salesperson's dream: "how would you like to be able to come back here every single year for a fraction of what you paid plus get free parking, spa discounts and other perks?"

Airfare will be an issue for some but park tickets are a recurring expense for other DVCs and they don't seem to deter many buyers. I know to many theme park fans the idea of lounging on a beach for a week may sound borrrr-inggggg. But believe it or not there are people who actually LIKE to vacation in that manner. :animwink:

Not trying to sound elitist but many people who visit WDW or DL and take a DVC tour simply do not have the means for a DVC purchase. By comparison, I think the odds are much greater that any given cash guest at Aulani is in a better position to buy DVC points. It's a deluxe resort, transportation is expensive, overall cost of living is high...take a group of people who can afford one stay at Aulani and show them they can come back again and again for less $$ and many will jump at the opportunity. Having the WDW and DL resorts as part of the program doesn't hurt either.

I really don't know what the long term numbers will look like but again I do think there is reason for some optimism.

But National Harbor is gonna have to wait quite a while before DVC is ready to declare Aulani a success and start green-lighting more regional hotel / timeshare properties.

 

[Pioneer Hall]

OK, just curious since you sounded so definitive.

It's not a stretch to think that sales have been disappointing thus far...particularly since they haven't been able to sell at all for nearly 2 months.

But the real test is yet to come and there is still room for some optimism. Remember until now all they have been doing is selling an incomplete product. At best they gave some buyers hard hat tours. Most just got to see modified model rooms located thousands of miles away.

From this point forward, every night of the week they will have hundreds--perhaps thousands--of cash guests staying at the resort. They'll be booking weddings, conventions, tour groups. Some will get really good discount rates but they'll still be paying more than at many other timeshares where guests are given free stays to lure them in. Disney Cruise Line will be coming to the islands. DVC members will use their points to book at 7 months and some will undoubtedly add-on.

If Aulani is able to meet or exceed the expectations of those cash guests and DVC members, the resort could start selling itself. The pitch really is a salesperson's dream: "how would you like to be able to come back here every single year for a fraction of what you paid plus get free parking, spa discounts and other perks?"

Airfare will be an issue for some but park tickets are a recurring expense for other DVCs and they don't seem to deter many buyers. I know to many theme park fans the idea of lounging on a beach for a week may sound borrrr-inggggg. But believe it or not there are people who actually LIKE to vacation in that manner. :animwink:

Not trying to sound elitist but many people who visit WDW or DL and take a DVC tour simply do not have the means for a DVC purchase. By comparison, I think the odds are much greater that any given cash guest at Aulani is in a better position to buy DVC points. It's a deluxe resort, transportation is expensive, overall cost of living is high...take a group of people who can afford one stay at Aulani and show them they can come back again and again for less $$ and many will jump at the opportunity. Having the WDW and DL resorts as part of the program doesn't hurt either.

I really don't know what the long term numbers will look like but again I do think there is reason for some optimism.

But National Harbor is gonna have to wait quite a while before DVC is ready to declare Aulani a success and start green-lighting more regional hotel / timeshare properties.

I apologize if my statements sounded much more positive than they may be (internet and tone...you know how it goes). I'm certainly hoping that Aulani does well, and hopefully they can convince guests to buy there when they come to visit. Nothing would please me more than for this test to be a success and they start to expand a bit. Being able to use my DVC points away from Disney, but not have to transfer outside the system would be very nice.

 

[toolsnspools]

I see Aulani as a mini-theme park destination. There's practically a full water park in the middle of it. It will be used to lure buyers that LIKE Disney World, but see themselves going there for the next 5 years, and not the next 50 years. Vero Beach and Hilton Head couldn't quite accomplish this because the hotels aren't an attraction in and of themselves. They aren't even located in places that I would consider high draw areas. Hawaii and DC both meet that criteria.

I too think that having the hotel open will be a big boost for sales. There's no way you'd find me dropping +20K on an unfinished product, even if Disney has a good track record. This is about the worst possible economic atmosphere to launch a new hotel in as well.

 

[worldfanatic]

I wouldn't hold your breath.

Aulani just opened.
The Grand Floridian project is just starting.
And there's a lot of rumors about a Disneyland Hotel DVC, which after the Grand Californian's strong DVC debut, would almost certainly be a success.

In this economy, I don't see National Harbor being a big priority right now.

 

[Thrill]

I wouldn't hold your breath.

Aulani just opened.
The Grand Floridian project is just starting.
And there's a lot of rumors about a Disneyland Hotel DVC, which after the Grand Californian's strong DVC debut, would almost certainly be a success.

In this economy, I don't see National Harbor being a big priority right now.

There's movement around Fort Wilderness, too.

Keep in mind that there are still Animal Kingdom, Bay Lake Tower, and Aulani points yet to sell (I think Saratoga, too), as well as 1 definite project, 1 project with permits filed and signs of future construction, and 1 probable project.

I'm not sure that Aulani will play into it too much. National Harbor points should be in higher demand than Aulani points. There are a lot of people within reasonable driving distance of Washington, DC, while Aulani is a good 3 hour flight away, or even more, from everywhere except Hawaii, where there's not a ton of value in owning a timeshare if you already live there. A lot of people want to stay at Aulani, but how many want to spend the money to go to Hawaii to stay there on a regular basis? In DC, there are tens of millions who can stay at a Disney resort to see the city without any additional costs like airfare or tickets, making it more realistic for more people to visit regularly.

If Aulani fails, I wouldn't say that DC is totally out of the question. But before it happens, DVC is going to need to clear their inventory to a fairly reasonable level. With 3 or 4 resorts still for sale, and at least 2, possibly 3, theme park locations to be added sometime in the near future, I don't expect DC to open for a good 10 years or so.

 

[trs518]

I would love them to open National Harbor sometime soon. My family would like to go to DC for vacation.

That being said, I could imagine one of the reasons Disney built Aulani was to help out the other resorts.

1. To broadens their portfolio, making it easier to sell.
2. People who stay at Aulani, where it isn't their home resort, allow the to sell more cash reservations at the resort based parks.