News Major Hurricane Dorian impacts to Walt Disney World 2019

[Yert3]

Never been in Fantasyland in a heavy rain, have ya?

The nightly sprinklers to prevent firework fires flood Peter Pan’s flight queue nightly and have for a while. I can’t believe they haven’t found a way to prevent it yet. Knowing current Disney, they might not have even tried.

 

[Yert3]

Central Florida no longer in the cone of uncertainty? Or is this a glitch?

 

[Rich Brownn]

Central Florida no longer in the cone of uncertainty? Or is this a glitch?View attachment 403920

Glitch. NHC still has Florida in the cone

 

[Lensman]

When was the last time a U.S. commercial aircraft crashed due to weather conditions?

It's off topic and depends on what you will accept as a crash. To avoid the inevitable argument, perhaps we should ignore skids off of runways and also ignore any crashes that involve no fatalities. Let's also agree to ignore crashes where weather was not directly causative, but rather merely set up a situation where other factors led to a crash - for instance in the Colgan Air 3407 crash.

Anyway, the last full crash I remember offhand is Delta Airlines flight 191 - the Lockheed L-1011 crashed on approach to DFW in 1985 due to wind shear from a microburst thunderstorm, resulting in 136 deaths of the 164 passengers and crew.

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/local/fort-worth/article164976827.html

Apolgies, but I did want to talk about one landing skid, American Airlines flight 1420. In 1999, AA 1420 made it onto the runway at LIT during heavy thunderstorms but overran the end of the runway, resulting in 11 fatalities out of 145 passengers and crew. The pilot attempted the landing despite the reported winds exceeding the 20 knot limit for landing an MD-82 in limited visibility on a wet runway.

And since we've been talking a lot about maximum allowed crosswind landings, I thought I'd post this classic:

 

[rickdrat]

Central Florida no longer in the cone of uncertainty? Or is this a glitch?View attachment 403920

Most of FL still very much in the cone of probability.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Most of FL still very much in the cone of probability.

View attachment 403925

Even if the eye stays off the coast...
What are we talking about here?
Travel to wdw...no matter where this thing goes (u turn unlikely), it’s gonna dump rain for days and make it suck. Postpone the trip...I imagine most here have been enough that you’re not missing anything earth shattering.

 

[Yert3]

Most of FL still very much in the cone of probability.

View attachment 403925

Wonder what happened then.

 

[rickdrat]

Wonder what happened then.

I don't know where that graphic came from. It might be some type of wind field display which given some of the current models, show the worst winds staying off shore, but that's a guess.

 

[Yert3]

I don't know where that graphic came from. It might be some type of wind field display which given some of the current models, show the worst winds staying off shore, but that's a guess.

It’s on the weather channels iPad app

 

[BoarderPhreak]

Yikes... And still so much warm water to cross. 🌪

The forecast calls for additional strengthening of up to 150 mph tomorrow. Category 5 winds are from 157 mph and higher.

 

[Sped2424]

00z models running. Most have Dorian never impacting land. Still to soon to tell, but certainly a good trend.

KEEP PUSHING IT OUTWARD FLORIDIANS!

 

[Bullseye1967]

2AM update

 

[monothingie]

5AM update is out. Based on overnight model run trends this will probably continue to move east.

Most notable major model products have ruled out a Florida landfall. SC/NC should now be on alert. This also doesn’t rule out impacts to Florida. The coast is going to get ravaged by flooding and rain, coupled with a storm surge and heavy winds. Interior will see a lot of rain and some winds.

Things may still change but based on the model trends, there is a good chance a lot of Floridians can breath a little easier this morning.

 

[monothingie]

 

[WDW862]

06z GFS is rendering now

 

[winstongator]

Exactly. The local emergency services keep stressing that sometimes it's only necessary to evacuate from a level A zone to a level D or E - which might only be 10 - 15 miles away. In Jacksonville, it might be going from the beaches inland to the west side of town. Our friends who live 2 blocks from the ocean just had to travel about 15 mins (more with traffic) to a relative's house in an inland area.

That's about where I am in Jax, and about our current plan. Lots of neighbors rode out Matthew and Irma, but will be safer to just stay a little inland.

 

[John park hopper]

Oh crap!!!! it looks like Dorian is heading to SC I hope it curves more off shore. I keep having flash backs to Hugo. Looking better for FL thank god. WDW dodged the bullet my moue has been spared a direct hit. To all in the path of Dorian stay safe.

 

[DryerLintFan]

Never been in Fantasyland in a heavy rain, have ya?

Or Epcot.... This was after a 5 minute rain shower last September because the "excellent drainage" was clogged with leaves

 

[Alice a]

Here in Charleston, we've been quietly speculating that Dorian has been acting a lot like Hugo. The thing is, there were a lot less people in the metro area - and a lot less development - when Hugo tore apart a good portion of the city.

Any kind of impact to us at this point - a city that has had road-closing, feet-deep flooding every night this week even though it hasn't rained and we are in a drought - would be catastrophic. Recent studies have shown that the Charleston peninsula is actually sinking at a substantial rate, due in part to the heavy construction of the past 10 years.

My neighbors and co-workers have never experienced a real huricane, and the area is woefully unprepared for a big storm, compared to 30 years ago when Hugo hit us. It's going to be an interesting few days.

 

[Alice a]

This is my block- on historically high ground- when it rains during a full moon.