Hurricane Wilma aimed at FL, Cat 5!

Mr D

New Member
Original Poster
Hurricane Wilma currently has equaled the low pressure of the 1935 labor day Hurricane of 1935.
Forecast models have it aimed at central Florida.


000
WTNT64 KNHC 190629
TCUAT4
HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE WILMA
HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED
175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS
THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

FORECASTER AVILA
 

Mr D

New Member
Original Poster
050646W_sm.gif
 

tink rules

New Member
oh where, oh where will Wilma go...

This one worries me.

My boss is supposed to go to the Caymans on Sunday and I have lots of friends in Florida.

What will Disney do to prepare?

& if there is damage, how long will it take to repair?

I hope it weakens...

:veryconfu :veryconfu :veryconfu :veryconfu
 

Mr D

New Member
Original Poster
Air Force Reconnaissance Plane Reported 884 Mb...the Lowest
Minimum Pressure Ever Measured In A Hurricane In The Atlantic
Basin...this Value Should Be Used With Caution Until Calibrated...

A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For The East Coast Of The Yucatan
Peninsula From Cabo Catoche To Punta Gruesa.

A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect In Cuba For The Provinces Of
Matanzas Westward Through Pinar Del Rio...and For The Isle Of
Youth. A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For Honduras From The
Honduras/nicaragua Border Westward To Cabo Camaron.

A Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane Watch Remain In Effect For
The Cayman Islands.

All Interests In The Florida Keys And The Florida Peninsula Should
Closely Monitor The Progress Of Extremely Dangerous Hurricane Wilma.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 5 Am Edt...0900z...the Center Of Hurricane Wilma Was Located Near
Latitude 17.2 North...longitude 82.5 West Or About 170 Miles...
270 Km...south-southwest Of Grand Cayman And About 365 Miles...
590 Km...southeast Of Cozumel Mexico.

Wilma Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 8 Mph...13 Km/hr. A
Turn Toward The Northwest Is Expected During The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 175 Mph...280 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Wilma Is A Catastrophic Category Five Hurricane On The
Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Fluctuations In Intensity Are Expected
During The Next 24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 15 Miles... 30 Km...
From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up
To 160 Miles...260 Km.

An Air Force Plane Just Measured A Minimum Central Pressure Of 884
Mb...26.10 Inches. This Is The Lowest Pressure Ever Recorded In A
Hurricane In The Atlantic Basin. However...this Pressure Value
Should Be Used With Caution Until It Is Fully Calibrated.

Wilma Is Expected To Produce Storm Total Accumulations Of 10 To 15
Inches...with Local Amounts Near 25 Inches In Mountainous Terrain
Across Cuba Through Friday. Additional Rainfall Accumulations Of 5
To 10 Inches...with Local Amounts Of 15 Inches...are Possible
Across The Cayman Islands...swan Island...and Jamaica Through
Thursday. Storm Total Accumulations Of 4 To 6 Inches...with
Isolated Amounts Of 8 To 12 Inches...are Possible From Honduras
Northward To The Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico Through Thursday.

Repeating The 5 Am Edt Position...17.2 N... 82.5 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 8 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...175
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 884 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 8 Am Edt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 11 Am
Edt.

Forecaster Avila
 

Debbie

Well-Known Member
I hope all of our forum friends in the area START PREPARING! Even though it may not be a 5 upon landfall; remember that the surge could still be a 5. If any of you can get David Bernard, out of Miami, (the weatherman on the CBS channel), he is an awesome forcaster of these storms. I missed him when Katrina and Rita were coming as he had already departed for Miami.
 

CatLady

New Member
tink rules said:
What will Disney do to prepare?

& if there is damage, how long will it take to repair?

Disney buttons down pretty tightly. I was in MK last year the day before hurricane Jeanne came through, and loose signs were tied down so they would not flap, hanging lights (like outside city hall) were cross-tied so they would not swing, popcorn carts tied down to the ground, etc. Monorails get put into the barn or the Contemporary. There's a very detailed hurricane plan.

Most of the parks opened the say after the storms, except Animal Kingdom, which took another couple days. People who had never been to the parks before didn't seem to notice any of the quickly swept-up damage. So if you're thinking of coming down, you'll be okay.

I have been watching this one for several days and all of the factors are in place for it to take a path very similar to Charley's last year. I do not want to go to Publix today... it will be a madhouse!
 

brich

New Member
My flight leaves for Orlando tomorrow. Looks like there may be a new attraction down there this year. If I bring my laptop down with me, I will try to post updates. But I guess that all depends on if we have power. This will certainly add something new to our usual trips to WDW...:eek:
 

CapnStinxy

Member
I strongly suspect that you are going to have electricity throught the duration of this storm. Throughout Florida, those locations with underground electrical distribution networks that were away from the zones of storm surge flooding, with rare exception, didn't suffer any outages in the storms of 2004. Furthermore, since you are staying in an onsite hotel (if I'm reading your signature correctly), your experience is going to be significantly better than about 99.5% of the people in peninsular Florida.
 

pinkrose

Well-Known Member
Wilma is expected to be a 2 or 3 at landfall. They expect her to weaken to a 3 by Sat. because of the westerlies and a hostile upper air enviroment.
 

blackerbys17

New Member
Well, according to the National Hurricane Center, the pressure reading has been confirmed and verified. Wilma now has the lowest pressure reading on record since record keeping began in the mid 1800s making it the strongest hurricane on record. :eek:

I won't lie, I'm scared. I live in Miami, I went through hurricane Andrew when I was 16 and the memory is all too fresh. Living here during hurricane season for me is like, "Gee, I wonder if my house will still be in 1 piece next week. Well, I hope so!" It's constant worry during the unbelievably long 5 month hurricane season. Not to mention worrying about getting yet ANOTHER hurricane past the season's end. (It's happened a few times here.)

This season has been twice as active as the average hurricane season. I can't help but really think about moving out of Florida but DH is a police officer and we have to stay here so that he can retire from his current employer because he has already put in 9 years and he only has 11 more to go. If it weren't for that, I'd probably be gone. At least up to North Florida, I own 5 acres there.

I guess all we can do is pray, prepare, and hope for the best. I leave for WDW next Saturday. I hope our house is still in one piece and the parks aren't damaged so that we can enjoy our vacation. I've put alot of money and planning into this trip (as I'm sure we have all done) and I'd hate to see it go down the drain.

Let's all pray for a little bit of pixie dust.
 

disneygirl_wdw

New Member
I leave tomorrow night around 9 for Disney. We land around 11, does anyone know if this will affect flight schedules? I am only going down for the weekend for my birthday. We also have tickets for MNSSHP on the 23rd, that's what I am most concerned about. If they cancell it I won't be able to go. This was the main reason why I am going.:brick:
 

mkt

Disney's Favorite Scumbag™
Premium Member
I won't mince words.

This hurricane f**king scares me.

I am thinking of leaving the southeast for somewhere midwestern to avoid this...
 

PixiePower

New Member
We are scheduled to leave Fri morning from TX. We are driving so I am concerned about evacuation traffic and gas as well as how things go in Orlando. My parents are in the target area so of course I am worried about them. We had plans to spend some time with them but may not now. We have tix for MNSSHP for the 25th so I am not as concerned about that- it looks like it will have to really slow down or totally tear apart WDW for that one to be cancelled and if the latter is the case the last thing I am worried about are my tickets!

After going through Charley last year I am more then a little nervous but I also hate the thought of cancelling this trip, we already moved it once due to Rita! Right now I guess its a wait and see game...again!
Does anyone else find hurricane season very tiring?!
 

blackerbys17

New Member
Yea, I do. I won't lie, I'm near tears most of the times because I'm scared of losing everything we've worked so hard for. I always kind of feel like it's not a question of if, just when. I pray I can make it through another 11 years of living here without much damage. After that, I am SO OUT OF MIAMI!
 

Tim G

Well-Known Member
Tourists Ordered From Keys As Category 5 Wilma Nears Florida

PUNTA GORDA, Fla. Visitors were ordered out of the Florida Keys on Wednesday as Hurricane Wilma exploded into the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record, with meteorologists warning that it could maintain devastating power as it crossed Florida from the Gulf Coast to the Atlantic this weekend.

Wilma's top sustained winds reached 175 mph early Wednesday in the most rapid strengthening ever recorded in a hurricane, said Hugh Cobb, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. At the same time Tuesday, Wilma was only a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph.

Hurricane Wilma at 10:45am on Wednesday, October 19.

Its confirmed pressure readings Wednesday morning dropped to 882 millibars, the lowest minimum pressure ever measured in a hurricane in the Atlantic basin, according to the hurricane center.

Forecasters said Wilma was stronger than the devastating Labor Day hurricane that hit the Florida Keys in 1935, the strongest Atlantic hurricane to make landfall on record.

But Wilma wasn't expected to keep its record strength for long, as higher disruptive atmospheric winds in the Gulf of Mexico around the hurricane should weaken it before landfall, Cobb said.
Gulf water temperatures are about 1 or 2 degrees lower than those in the Caribbean, which should inhibit its strength more, he added.


It is still forecast to be a potentially devastating Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall, although experts acknowledge they have little skill in making strength forecasts.

Wilma's potential path could threaten coastal areas in southwestern Florida such as Punta Gorda that were hit by Hurricane Charley, a Category 4 storm that was the first of seven hurricanes to hit Florida or pass nearby since last year. Charley struck on Aug. 13, 2004.

Paul Malbon anxiously watched Wilma's progress from the five-story Best Western waterfront hotel he owns and runs in Fort Myers Beach.
Its ground floor had sand and walls of water shoved in by Charley's storm surge last year, but everything was quickly repaired.

"I don't wish bad luck on anybody else but I hope it doesn't come here," he said Wednesday.

When asked whether he thought the area might get slammed again, he replied: "Only the man upstairs knows the answer to that one. It don't look good at the moment."

Wilma was also expected to move across the peninsula quickly, which means it wouldn't weaken much over land, Cobb said. That means it's possible Atlantic coast cities such as Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach could also be hit by winds nearly as strong as the west coast, he said.

Wilma also grew into a larger storm Wednesday, with hurricane-force winds stretching out up to 50 miles from its center, up from 15 miles earlier in the day.

The hurricanes that have hit Florida caused damage estimated at more than $20 billion and killing nearly 150 people.

Monroe County officials ordered visitors out of the Florida Keys starting at noon Wednesday. Tourists are generally told to leave ahead of others on the lengthy chain of islands connected by one highway.

Collier County officials haven't ordered anyone to leave the Naples area, but "we are telling those folks who are more comfortable evacuating to go ahead. If they wait there could be road congestion and other problems," said Jaime Sarbagh, a county emergency management spokeswoman.

In Punta Gorda, some homes and businesses remain boarded up from Charley. More than 6,800 federal trailers and mobile homes remain scattered around the state as temporary housing from the six storms, with 934 in Charlotte County alone.

The state routinely replenishes emergency supplies of water, food and ice at staging points across Florida, so no additional action is needed, emergency management spokesman Mike Stone said. Florida supermarkets and home repair chains also stocked extra food, ice and other supplies ahead of an expected onslaught in stores.

At 11 a.m. Wednesday, Wilma was centered about 325 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and about 500 miles south of Key West. It was moving west-northwest near 7 mph, forecasters said.

Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center in Miami show Wilma could hit western Cuba or the Yucatan Peninsula before heading into the Gulf of Mexico by Friday.

Jamaica, Cuba, Nicaragua and Honduras are getting heavy rain bands for Wilma. Computer models show Wilma taking a sharp turn toward Florida and picking up forward speed over the weekend as it gets caught in the jet stream, strong prevailing winds that generally blow toward the east, forecasters said.

Louisiana, Texas and Mississippi appeared out of Wilma's path, sparing them more devastation.

Max Mayfield, director of the hurricane center, cautioned southern Florida residents of a dangerous storm surge should Wilma hit the peninsula.

To avoid potential flooding from Lake Okeechobee, water managers began emptying Palm Beach County canals on Tuesday. But officials said previous hurricane preparations and dry weather in the past two weeks has left ample room for additional waters in the lake.

Ten to 15 inches of rain was expected in mountainous terrain in Cuba, with some areas getting up to 25 inches. Four to 12 inches was expected in the Caymans, Honduras, Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula.

Wilma became this season's 12th hurricane on Tuesday, tying the record for most hurricanes in an Atlantic hurricane season since record-keeping began in 1851. It is also the 21st named storm, tying the record set in 1933.
 

mkt

Disney's Favorite Scumbag™
Premium Member
PhotoMom524 said:
MTK - Let me know if you head north! I've got a spare room, unless PhotoDave bails from FL as well...:D

hmmmm.....

I might seriously take you up on that if work has no problems with it.
 

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