How likely are resorts to fill up before 5-7 months out

[bjones82.5]

We were just there for the run weekend my wife ran her first 10k after losing 120lbs and financially we have the ability to buy without financing, the way we vacation at Disney dvc makes a lot of sense and we have no problem doing other resorts just wanted some real world experience from you guys about what booking is like, we’re able to adjust our booking style if needed we just wanted to know that going in. Thanks everyone for you’re advice

 

[nickys]

I'm going to be the fly in the ointment.... DO NOT BUY DVC, right now... RENT DVC. WAIT until WDW corrects the current Political, Maintenance, and Access issues. These are driving a LOT of owners to "Rent Out" points, creating a fairly robust RENTAL Market.
Don't be on the "I need to rent OUT DVC" end.

A little background? We are DIRECT DVC owners, 2012, 300 points. Two trips per year since 2012... We never Rent OUT - so no dog in this fight. We will be gifting our DVC points, to our children - as we have totally hit "break even".

"Break even" is when, over several years, you are AHEAD of the $35K or so initial payment, any financing interest, with actual trips vs. DISCOUNTED rooms. Usually about 5-7 years, with two trips per year, a good 10 years with ONE trip per year. Finance? Please, don't do this... have a good $40K in cash, up front.

DVC is going through issues, imposed by other "departments". Low Hotel staff, few perks. If all you want is a ROOM? Go for it. But do not expect GOLD - far more gilted LEAD. A purchase right now is fairly risky . Please WAIT, until DVC, and WDW, become stable.

You can get a HEAVILY discounted room by renting. Our nightly REAL cost at BRV is still close to $250/Night. RACK, in AUGUST, is about $672/Night, for a 1 bed.

Compare with discounted RACK at WL proper. Rental's? If you went 2X, you would still beat RACK price. Please? Start by RENTING DVC, at the Home Resort you were considering BUYING?

Brokers are facing a definite shortage of owners renting points out now. Demand far outstrips supply. And availability is getting very tough now too.

If you can go at very short notice, there are some real bargains to be had with confirmed reservations being put up on broker sites. There was one this weekend for. 2-bed at BWV for just $10 per point.

I think a lot of owners who do still have points to sell are doing it themselves, or using confirmed reservations.

Prices are unlikely to come down for buying, even resale. I know people who are selling after less than a year in order to buy new at GFV or the Poly, and making a profit. And as with many things sometimes it’s better to buy rather than wait, otherwise the price rises may make it unaffordable.

 

[nickys]

"Break even" is when, over several years, you are AHEAD of the $35K or so initial payment, any financing interest, with actual trips vs. DISCOUNTED rooms. Usually about 5-7 years, with two trips per year, a good 10 years with ONE trip per year.

The “Break Even” point depends entirely on your own circumstances. Statements like yours are not true for others. We will reach our break even point after our next trip, almost 13 years after buying and only our 4th DVC trip.

 

[nickys]

We were just there for the run weekend my wife ran her first 10k after losing 120lbs and financially we have the ability to buy without financing, the way we vacation at Disney dvc makes a lot of sense and we have no problem doing other resorts just wanted some real world experience from you guys about what booking is like, we’re able to adjust our booking style if needed we just wanted to know that going in. Thanks everyone for you’re advice

Then go for it. And good luck with the process.

Personally I think this year is seeing things re-adjusting and next year will see a return to a more regular pattern.

Definitely keep an eye on the charts on DVCHelp that @CastAStone posted, I’m sure those will be updated if a significantly different pattern emerges.

 

[Wilbret]

Hi we’re finally at a point where buying dvc is right for us (no financing) so we’re looking at current offers and see riviera is $18 off a point right now when buying 400 so that’s a huge difference in price. We primarily want to stay at wilderness (even if we have to do split stays) but don’t normally schedule our vacations more than 5-7 months in advance. So basically in your experience how often do resorts fill up? We get it we might not always be able to get wilderness because of how far out we book but want to know we’ll likely be able to stay there some of the time.

Like I said I know this is an extremely broad question just looking for some of your real world experience booking dvc.

Others have likely far better experience than me, but I'm willing to add to the total knowledge base here.
We have 2 contracts at AK, and have rarely had an issue finding a room when we need one.

However... we don't always "want" to stay at AK, and have had less success getting something we want during peak times anywhere else.
So, if you have visions of booking Poly, WL, etc, etc, during spring break or the holidays, you may be in for a difficult search and hoping on your waiting lists to open up.

Caveat #1: we have often had great luck with waiting lists, but sometimes we have to bail on them and make alternate plans to ensure we have a place to stay at all. We have had to do some wonky things like grab days that work and mix rooms and whatnot, but we usually make it work.

Caveat #2: We have stayed at Saratoga Springs more times than AK, our home resort. It seems to be our safety net, and luckily, we actually love that place because you can walk to Disney Springs.

All that is to say... I wish I had known more about it going in, I might want some points here, some points there, and some points over here, to get access to early reservations at more places.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

Others have likely far better experience than me, but I'm willing to add to the total knowledge base here.
We have 2 contracts at AK, and have rarely had an issue finding a room when we need one.

However... we don't always "want" to stay at AK, and have had less success getting something we want during peak times anywhere else.
So, if you have visions of booking Poly, WL, etc, etc, during spring break or the holidays, you may be in for a difficult search and hoping on your waiting lists to open up.

Caveat #1: we have often had great luck with waiting lists, but sometimes we have to bail on them and make alternate plans to ensure we have a place to stay at all. We have had to do some wonky things like grab days that work and mix rooms and whatnot, but we usually make it work.

Caveat #2: We have stayed at Saratoga Springs more times than AK, our home resort. It seems to be our safety net, and luckily, we actually love that place because you can walk to Disney Springs.

All that is to say... I wish I had known more about it going in, I might want some points here, some points there, and some points over here, to get access to early reservations at more places.

I'm going to suggest a slight alternative for you. We always book our home resort (SSR) at the 11 month mark, and then, if we feel like staying elsewhere, we look for availability a day before our 7 month window. If it's available and we have enough points, we book that room and then cancel the original at exactly the 7 month mark. If we don't have enough to cover both, then we call MS, again exactly on the 7 month day right at their open time. They can hold your current reservation while making the new one just in case your choice fills up and then your home resort fills up, and then you have nothing but moving around. Just a thought.

 

[Wilbret]

I'm going to suggest a slight alternative for you. We always book our home resort (SSR) at the 11 month mark, and then, if we feel like staying elsewhere, we look for availability a day before our 7 month window. If it's available and we have enough points, we book that room and then cancel the original at exactly the 7 month mark. If we don't have enough to cover both, then we call MS, again exactly on the 7 month day right at their open time. They can hold your current reservation while making the new one just in case your choice fills up and then your home resort fills up, and then you have nothing but moving around. Just a thought.

We live in easy driving distance, our trips aren't always that thought out, lol! One trip per year we coordinate with rest of family, and that's always at AKL. The rest, well, let's just say we decided to go last weekend on Thursday...

 

[nickys]

If we don't have enough to cover both, then we call MS, again exactly on the 7 month day right at their open time. They can hold your current reservation while making the new one just in case your choice fills up and then your home resort fills up, and then you have nothing but moving around. Just a thought.

Just as an FYI, if you modify online yourself you don’t lose your existing reservation until you confirm the new one. So calling in will lose you the hour’s advantage.

 

[RememberWhen]

Just as an FYI, if you modify online yourself you don’t lose your existing reservation until you confirm the new one. So calling in will lose you the hour’s advantage.

Was also going to suggest online modification. Quick and easy, assuming the website is working.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

Just as an FYI, if you modify online yourself you don’t lose your existing reservation until you confirm the new one. So calling in will lose you the hour’s advantage.

Thanks! I haven’t had any luck with doing a modify online, but I’ll give it a shot next time.

 

[correcaminos]

Thanks! I haven’t had any luck with doing a modify online, but I’ll give it a shot next time.

Definitely the way to go. Only way I'll do reservations now if swapping resorts

 

[scoobygirl39541]

Just my two cents if you're interested, there has already been many great inputs! I own at AKV because I wanted to be able to stay at Jambo house. Its nearly impossible to do so without owning there. That was my main motivation. In my case, I had to buy where I wanted to stay.

In your case, in all my vacations and looking to book quick trips (at or under the 7 month window), I rarely see CCV or BR available for more than a day here or there. (Also you didn't specify if you want to stay at CCV or BR). I've only ever stayed one night at CCV and this July is my first time at BR. Somehow scored a 2 bedroom for 4 nights 5 months out, but we had to be VERY flexible and that was basically all that was there. If you have your heart set on CCV/BR I would think carefully about RR. However, if you don't mind staying at CCV/BR sparingly, sometimes, and not every trip... Then go for saving the 15k.