Grading WDW Pro's Predictions Since March

WDW Pro

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Good afternoon, evening, morning, or midday depending on where you are in the world. As many of you probably know, I create some ruckus at times with the information that I provide, with people debating whether or not I give accurate updates. So, since I had a free evening (rare), I decided to check to see how I had performed over the past four months. I went back and reviewed all the major threads/posts I had created with predictions, and then listed those predictions below with a "true", "somewhat true", "false", or "TBD" label. Finally, I calculated those results with an accuracy rating for my predictions over the last four months at the end of this post. I also made sure that the only predictions listed and graded were predictions that occurred before any public announcement.

Have fun!

March 24th:
I know I said I wouldn't be posting anything during the pandemic, but I received some information about the severity of cuts coming for projects at WDW. I thought I'd make a brief post about that, although there are much more important issues in the world today. I likely won't be checking in often for conversation, but I may reply from time to time.

What's Likely to Be Completed:
  • Tron Coaster
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Coaster
  • Cinderella Castle Retheme
  • Ratatouille
  • Space 220
What's Likely to Be Delayed:
  • Innoventions Demo
  • MFSR Update
  • Harmonious
What's Currenty Being Looked at for Abandonment:
  • Mary Poppins Expansion
  • Moana Expansion
  • Unannounced Journey Into Imagination Upgrade
  • Star Wars Hotel
  • Galaxy's Edge Expansions / Upgrades
  • Spaceship Earth Refurb
  • Wonders of Life Pavilion Retheme
  • Coco Attraction
  • Reflections Lakeside Lodge
  • Every other potential addition not listed here
Furthermore, Disney is currently working on a plan for what re-opening WDW looks like. Every week it is shut down, it becomes more difficult to reopen. In the best case scenario where WDW can be reopened in May, while still taking massive precautions during a global pandemic, this is the general outline:

Magic Kingdom reopens with 50% capacity. No parades, no fireworks, no indoor theaters, significant number of rides down.
Epcot not currently planned to reopen with the other parks.
DHS reopens with 40% capacity. No parades, no indoor theaters.
Animal Kingdom reopens with 50% capacity. No indoor theaters.
No plans to reopen Blizzard Beach or Typhoon Lagoon in the near term.
All ride vehicles would require mandatory wipe down once in station.
No character meets.
Distancing encouraged.
Verdict:
Tron Coaster: True
Guardians Coaster: True
Castle Paint: True
Ratatouille: True
Space 220: True
Innoventions: True
MSFR Update: True
Harmonious: True
Mary Poppins Attraction: True
Moana: True
JII: True

Star Wars Hotel: Unconfirmed
Galaxy's Edge Updates: Unconfirmed
Wonders of Life: Unconfirmed

Coco: True
Reflections: False (maybe?)
MK Capacity: True (phasing from 15k start)
MK Parades: True
MK Fireworks: True

MK Indoor Theaters: False
Attractions Down: False
Epcot Delayed Opening: Basically False

DHS Info: True
AK Info: True (except Hard to Be a Bug)
Blizzard Beach: True
Typhoon Lagoon: True

Vehicle Wipe Downs: Essentially True (changed from every circuit to 20 minute mandate due to supply limitations)
Character Meets: True
Distancing Encouraged: True


April 8th:
Update:

August is now the company's internal target for reopening the domestic parks. Planning is underway for a televised, Disney + fireworks show for Independence Day, but would be without any significant physical audience, would involve closed roads, and would need permission from Florida. Epcot is still not planned to reopen with the rest of the parks and would lag by perhaps a month or so. Mandatory temperature checks would occur at each gate and resort entrance. Unlikely at this time that all resorts may open simultaneously - a plan internally titled Secure Circuit would see only MK resorts open with monorail service to MK and bus service to AK / DHS. This is the highest level health screening plan to attempt reopening with Florida and US government assistance. It would be temporary but could get things opened once more. No plans to reopen the water parks this summer. Temporarily expect to see directional arrows on the ground to direct foot traffic so that social distancing is easier. Dining modifications are still underway in the planning stage with tiered systems for gradually returning to normal when possible. Expect domestic parks to operate as regional entities rather than international destinations for the next year or so.
Verdict:
August Reopening: True at the time, off by three weeks after Universal launched early
Independence Fireworks: False, streamed old version instead, earlier resort launch changed plans
Epcot Lag by Month: False, lagged by a day

Mandatory Temperature Checks: True
Resorts not opening all simultaneously: True

Secure Circuit: True, minus Epcot though some other resorts opened
Water Parks: True
Arrows: True (iterated into spacing bars)
Dining Modifications: True
Domestic Parks mostly regional: True


May 22nd:
First of all, thank you to my sources for all your info! This will be a longer read, but should give you a good view of behind-the-scene actions:

Today I'd like to update you on Disney's plans for reopening Walt Disney World. Universal's June opening date has actually caught Disney off guard, as it is much more aggressive than previously thought. As recently as two weeks ago, the plan for Walt Disney World had been to reopen August 31st with the prior three weeks of August used to retrain cast. Part of the issue for Walt Disney World is that the federal government is currently paying cast members receiving unemployment a sum equal to $600 per each week they are out... and Disney simply can't match those amounts if they bring back cast. The federal government will (presumably) cease those payments after July. Furthermore, Disney has identified that requiring children to wear masks in summer Florida heat could result in extremely unhealthy situations and PR issues. As an example, let's say you require a child to wear a mask who also happens to have asthma. The heat being near 100 degrees, the parents allow the child to remove the mask as they're dehydrated and having breathing issues... other guests see this and likewise want to remove their masks in the sweltering sun. Now you've either got to enforce the rule on the asthmatic child suffering in the heat, or you have to allow all the other guests to likewise remove their masks. To this effect, Disney has actually even considered using old "smoking areas" as areas where you're allowed to temporarily remove your mask for relief. There are other issues with reopening in early to mid summer, including issues surrounding the Fourth of July. There are issues surrounding guests coming from American hot spots (New York, New Jersey, etc). It's much easier to say "no" to a Florida citizen guest entering Disney Springs on a relatively cool day due to a high temperature versus saying "no" to an entire family from South Dakota who counter that their child's temperature is too high only because its 101 degrees at 2 o'clock as they try to come back from their hotel.

Whereas Universal has now dropped the hammer by having their plan accepted and approved by Governor DeSantis, Disney has yet to submit their plan to the governor. That will likely now have to change as Disney simply won't allow Universal to corner the theme park market in Orlando for an entire summer. Simultaneously, Disney had previously taken a very cautious approach to reopening at a later date, utilizing an intra-company protocol known as Secure Circuit. This protocol would see Magic Kingdom and MK resorts opening first with health screenings at every security screening. However, with Universal planning to reopen everything essentially - including even their water park - Disney is really put in a difficult position. Not only are they now pushed to open earlier than expected, but they also are pushed to reopen more than they had originally planned right off the line. This has created a scramble from within the company to determine how they could reopen more safely and how they could staff such a measure so early. Further complicating these issues is that Disney had planned to use Shanghai data to assist in developing a plan for reopening WDW, but DeSantis' administration is opposed to using any Shanghai information as evidence of success/failure because they feel information coming out of China is completely unreliable (for all we know, the CCP may even be selecting who signs up for the theme park as a global PR stunt).

So where does that put Disney at this point? Well, the test run at Disney Springs has went okay, but not great. Although D'Amaro has moved up in ranks, for all intents and purposes he is still acting as the lead for WDW Resort since the company's main focus is now on getting it up and running in some capacity. And since he was on the ground at Disney Springs, he's well aware that many guests simply ignored the mask mandates once inside Disney Springs. He's also aware that many used the exceptions for guests eating or drinking to avoid wearing the mask. And finally, he's aware that there were some bizarre YouTube style moments where guests even attempted their own barbecue setup outside of a restaurant. And outside of making your own barbecue area, it's hard to blame guests if they find ways to socially distance and take off their mask using a beverage as cover to do so. You can imagine that when sweat is pouring down your body in Fantasyland, you might be inclined to use that large iced latte as a means by which to take off the bloody mask for five minutes as its now drenched in sweat and gross. If half the park is doing that, you've got a problem. And even with a proposed 15,000 maximum capacity at Magic Kingdom at reopen, that's still an unavoidable issue.

Other random things to note:
  • The Star Wars hotel did not have "designers" inside the building planning where lights and speakers go during the governor's stay-at-home orders, despite rumors to the contrary.
  • Universal has upended everything Disney was planning for reopening as of now, and will almost certainly reopen significantly before WDW. Disney will now have to race to re-plan and reschedule, as will other local theme parks.
  • Disneyland is still no where close to reopening. I would not expect to see it reopen this year. If it does, it would likely be no earlier than November.
  • Disney had no plans to reopen Typhoon Lagoon and/or Blizzard Beach this summer. With Universal going the opposite direction, Disney may try to reopen one park, and I'm told it would have to be Typhoon Lagoon (not sure why though). Universal is using its own data about pool chemicals to reopen, but Disney is very reluctant due to the need for guests to take cover during serious (and often) thunderstorms. In these times, guests MUST take cover inside in close proximity, and there's no plan for how to resolve that.
  • At bare minimum, from the time the go-ahead is given, its a two week process to get just the Magic Kingdom and MK resorts up and running with limited capacity, operations, and menu items. DeSantis has yet to even approve a plan from Disney, so don't expect the reservation cancellations to stop this week.
  • Ops has said it's just not feasible to wipe down every vehicle between use for most attractions. In the alternative, there may be "wipe stations" for guests to grab a wipe prior to entering the vehicle, or there may simply be a sanitation station for guests after exiting the vehicle.
  • There's a weird issue about masks and high speed attractions that's being discussed. Apparently a non-disclosed incident occurred in Shanghai in which a guest on a fast attraction had their mask come out of normal position and the guest couldn't resolve the problem due to ride restraints. Disney is looking at how to avoid such a problem with a child on a ride such as Rock'n Roller Coaster. I'm told no solid solution has been determined just yet. It's an unlikely situation, but you would just need one time of a mask becoming a health issue mid-ride for it to be worthwhile to avoid.
  • The cost and availability of fireworks have both went in poor directions for Walt Disney World. Even if fireworks can be planned to return in some capacity, it is much more difficult to acquire shells, as well as more costly. Supply chains for fireworks have been greatly disrupted.
Verdict:
SW Hotel Work: True
Universal open significantly earlier than Disney: True
Disneyland unlikely to open before November: Thus far True
Water parks unlikely to reopen: True
Prediction on Reservations: True
Ops Wipe Down Concerns: Basically True (wipe down stations swapped for hand sanitizers due to supply chain issues)

Masks on Attractions: Somewhat True (some attractions require them, some not)

May 27th:
Small update today, but here's where you can expect to see your favorite Disney friends waving and being picturesque while meet and greets are unavailable at the Magic Kingdom:

1) Main Street Train Station (Mickey and Friends)
2) Cinderella Castle Fantasyland Balcony (Princesses and Princes)
3) Rivers of America (Unsure... and might be on Liberty Belle, but no confirmation)

Seems like Disney will be doing their best to keep things magical even if characters can't be up close.
Verdict:
Train Station: True
Castle Reverse Balcony: True
Rivers of America: True


Conclusion:
So that's 43 predictions since March 24th that we can now grade definitively, many detailing info that wouldn't come to fruition for months in advance. Of the 43 predictions I made, 37 made it from the info I had to final public release. That means that for the past four months, I've been 86% accurate. Given how much things can and do change inside a company from idea conceptualization to policy implementation, I'll take that number any day.

Let the debate begin lol :)

UPDATE July 16th: Three new items are now confirmed true. That's now 40/46 or 87% accurate.
 
Last edited:

spresso81

Well-Known Member
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WDW Pro please also be right on the Splash Mountain change delay and (fingers crossed) the possibility the ride does not change!

86% is good but lets bump it up when we revisit in 5 years.
 

Magic Feather

Well-Known Member
Good afternoon, evening, morning, or midday depending on where you are in the world. As many of you probably know, I create some ruckus at times with the information that I provide, with people debating whether or not I give accurate updates. So, since I had a free evening (rare), I decided to check to see how I had performed over the past four months. I went back and reviewed all the major threads/posts I had created with predictions, and then listed those predictions below with a "true", "somewhat true", "false", or "TBD" label. Finally, I calculated those results with an accuracy rating for my predictions over the last four months at the end of this post. I also made sure that the only predictions listed and graded were predictions that occurred before any public announcement.

Have fun!

March 24th:

Verdict:
Tron Coaster: True
Guardians Coaster: True
Castle Paint: True
Ratatouille: True

Space 220: Actually delayed
Innoventions: True
MSFR Update: True
Harmonious: True

Mary Poppins Attraction: Unconfirmed
Moana: Unconfirmed

JII: True
Star Wars Hotel: Unconfirmed
Galaxy's Edge Updates: Unconfirmed
Wonders of Life: Unconfirmed

Coco: Unconfirmed
Reflections: False (maybe?)
MK Capacity: False
MK Parades: True
MK Fireworks: True

MK Indoor Theaters: False
Attractions Down: False
Epcot Delayed Opening: Basically False

DHS Info: False
AK Info: False

Blizzard Beach: True
Typhoon Lagoon: True

Vehicle Wipe Downs: Essentially True (changed from every circuit to 20 minute mandate due to supply limitations)
Character Meets: True
Distancing Encouraged: True


April 8th:

Verdict:
August Reopening: True at the time, off by three weeks after Universal launched early *MF Note- I had always heard late-June to Early-July starting at end of March. In the final weeks of May, I learned the real target window of early/mid july*
Independence Fireworks: False, streamed old version instead, earlier resort launch changed plans
Epcot Lag by Month: False, lagged by a few days

Mandatory Temperature Checks: True
Resorts not opening all simultaneously: True

Secure Circuit: True, minus Epcot though some other resorts opened *MF note, the protocol you described as secure circuit was an early proposal
Water Parks: True *MF Note, are you really counting Water Park info twice? I’m not counting this in my final tally*
Arrows: True (iterated into spacing bars)
Dining Modifications: True

Domestic Parks mostly regional: I’m actually giving you credit on this one when you didn’t

May 22nd:

Verdict:
SW Hotel Work: True
Universal open significantly earlier than Disney: True *MF Note: I’ll give you this one, but it was all but a given when Universal said June 1 and we knew Disney was July at earliest*

Disneyland unlikely to open before November: not counting as true. DL was seriously set to open in July and had to pull back kind of late. Even current targets are better than November.
Water parks unlikely to reopen: True
Prediction on Reservations: True *MF Note: This was all but a given thanks to foreign parks, and myself alongside others had all but stated it (and I think some did straight up say it) so I’m not counting it

Ops Wipe Down Concerns: Basically True (wipe down stations swapped for hand sanitizers due to supply chain issues) Basically true isn’t actually true.
Masks on Attractions: mask on attractions concerns are true, but what you said was completely off base

May 27th:

Verdict:
Train Station: True
Castle Reverse Balcony: True

Rivers of America: False

Conclusion:
So that's 42 predictions since March 24th that we can now grade definitively, many detailing info that wouldn't come to fruition for months in advance. Of the 43 predictions I made, 23 made it from the info I had to final public release. That means that for the past four months, I've been 53% accurate. Given how much things can and do change inside a company from idea conceptualization to policy implementation, I'll take that number any day.

Let the debate begin lol :)
I’m prefacing this with I value your insight, I know that most of it comes from a real place, and 53% is still a pretty good batting average, but, if you don’t mind, I went ahead and “FTFY” above.
 

Theme vision 1955

Well-Known Member
@WDW Pro thank you for all you do! Even if it means I get bad news about figment.
I feel the same way. I guess we will just have to deal with the current iteration until something actually goes wrong, forcing them to do something. I remember seeing or reading something about how a couple of the cars slightly collided in a malfunction. Maybe if something catches on fire they’ll do something...

cough cough...
8B818E0C-1CD2-4BC0-AD6D-17E130AF2292.jpeg
 

Mainahman

Well-Known Member
I feel the same way. I guess we will just have to deal with the current iteration until something actually goes wrong, forcing them to do something. I remember seeing or reading something about how a couple of the cars slightly collided in a malfunction. Maybe if something catches on fire they’ll do something...

cough cough...
View attachment 482793
I rather then leave it alone than screw it up further. I really dont like or trust chapek and what he will allow for project budgets
 

WDW Pro

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
This is the epitome of narcissism. You went through all your old posts to create a new post just to prove that your an “insider” to a bunch of strangers on a message board who question your validity? Is their affirmation really that important to your ego?
I tried waiting on you to do it, but you were busy with other things ;)

You really made a post about yourself in the 3rd person...woow.
WDW Pro would never do that.
 
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