Forbes article makes a ridiculous crowd level claim.

epcotisbest

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Last edited:

epcotisbest

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
There has to be some noise in the data they are not filtering out. I could see Thanksgiving week being on par with Christmas when you look property wide, but 3 times more...not a chance.

That is what I thought. Maybe they are measuring street traffic or cars on I-4 or something, but still three times?
 

ABQ

Well-Known Member
OK, I'll bight, dumb question, but could it be the more visitors to WDW during the Thanksgiving week are domestic travelers, as it's not an international holiday, unlike Christmas to New Years week? Consequently, are these domestic visitors more likely to hammer away on their mobile devices for calls than international visitors due to costs to use mobile data when traveling abroad? Just spitballing, as the 3x visitation over Christmas seem far fetched.
 

epcotisbest

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
OK, I'll bight, dumb question, but could it be the more visitors to WDW during the Thanksgiving week are domestic travelers, as it's not an international holiday, unlike Christmas to New Years week? Consequently, are these domestic visitors more likely to hammer away on their mobile devices for calls than international visitors due to costs to use mobile data when traveling abroad? Just spitballing, as the 3x visitation over Christmas seem far fetched.

Interesting theory. Seems to me there is a huge different in crowds and visitation vs. mobile device usage. I never use a cell phone in a park (old guy avoiding technology and connection to the outside world, that is one thing we actively get away from when going to WDW) so by that measure, we were not there. That seems to me like trying to estimate how many people are in the pool by counting the towels used instead of the people.
 

Seanual757

Well-Known Member
Since I am local we have gone to the MK, DHS, and Epcot during both Thanksgiving weekend and Christmas week and weekend and I would say last year the crowds are about equal. The MK will always be busier (except last year DHS was packed because of the last year of the lights).

We are heading to the MK on Saturday so I will see how the crowds are we have FP's already booked.
 

epcotisbest

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Since I am local we have gone to the MK, DHS, and Epcot during both Thanksgiving weekend and Christmas week and weekend and I would say last year the crowds are about equal. The MK will always be busier (except last year DHS was packed because of the last year of the lights).

We are heading to the MK on Saturday so I will see how the crowds are we have FP's already booked.

I can imagine being about equal. The three times larger is what threw me for a loop.
 

dreamfinder

Well-Known Member
I am not technologically savvy enough to know or understand what that means.

It means
a) The "contributor" needs to cite the source for the data.
b) Aggregated mobile data basically means they are somehow collecting data about mobile device usage in the are. I'd guess they are measuring cell tower hits, maybe augmenting with GPS data they are getting from some apps.
c) The graphs need to be properly labeled for scale.

Assuming I am correct in b), and that they are basically looking for unique hits on a cell tower (or triangulating distance between multiple), you can see immediately how the data would end up being skewed. Now admittedly the graphic showing an average weekend traffic is presented in 3 dimensions, so the view will be off (kind of like how some maps have Greenland as being HUGE) but I roughly eyeball that as showing that both Epcot and DHS get more "aggregated data" that MK does, with Tyhpoon Lagoon getting more visits than all 3 of them. And this flies completely in the face of most accepted crowd level estimates.
Now without a link back to the original data, we don't know the method being used to determine a visit, but look at what the resort map shows. The two locations (DS and TL) they show as having the most visits are both right next to I4. So if a visit is simply a mobile device pinging a tower, then it would make sense that any device in a car going by on I4 would register as a visit, showing both of those locations to be much heavier trafficked than say MK, which is somewhat isolated with mostly light residential nearby.
Following that train of thought, with Thanksgiving being the biggest travel day of the year (or so all the news reports have been telling me) I'd expect that the towers in the area would potentially see alot more unique hits then, causing the parks to seem busier, than on a day where people aren't travelling.
So if they are say within 10% of each other in actual turnstile clicks, but there is 25% more people on the roads on Thanksgiving than Christmas, that would result in 15% more "guests" being seen on Thanksgiving. Now if someone actually produces the original source data instead of just some unlabeled charts, I may be proven completely wrong. Otherwise it would be like driving by a mall on Black Friday that had people parking in a Circuit City parking lot (a chain that closed years ago) and assuming Circuit City was back in business, without realizing that most people had instead parked there and walked across the street to Best Buy. An interesting way to measure the parks, but one that needs to be taken with a grain of salt, especially when written about by a "Forbes Contributor" which Forbes claims no responsibility for.
 

plutofan15

Well-Known Member
Well, being an engineer for one of the major cellular providers, I ran a quick check of data traffic on one of the cells in the WDW footprint. I ran quick stats on the cell located in the parking lot of Epcot. Stats are on one sector facing the park for just one carrier on that sector. The busiest days of 2015 on both holidays were the Sunday of Thanksgiving weekend on which the one carrier did 44.08 GB of download traffic while the same carrier/sector did 53.56 GB of DL traffic on 12/31. Traffic for Thanksgiving day was 37.59 GB of download while Christmas Day was 41.99 GB.
To give you some idea of the total traffic which is carried on just on sector of one cell, the total amount of traffic carried (all carriers within one sector) on the busiest days of each holiday - on Thanksgiving Sunday of 2015 there was 140.26 GB and on 12/31/15 there was 191.74 GB.
Granted this is a sample from just a single sector of one cell site of the multiple cells serving WDW but Christmas time is still a busier time than Thanksgiving but not by as large of a margin as I expected - at least cellular data wise.
 

Herdman

Well-Known Member
I've been at the parks this week and while it has certainly been "stuffy" feeling; none of them have been so crowded as to be unmanageable. Christmas/New Years Week is much worse.
We were there from 11/18-11/27, and I would agree. We have not been there during Christmas week, and this was our first time for Thanksgiving, but it was not nearly as bad as I was expecting from the posts here. We did 95% of what we had planned to do with no problem. Crowds only annoyed me a couple times during the week in trying to maneuver to where we wanted to go. I once went to Cedar Point in Ohio and rode 5 rides in 8 hours so this was a piece of cake by comparison.
 

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