News Reedy Creek Improvement District and the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District

[HauntedPirate]

I remember 2008. Disney stock was $14 dollars. This is NOT that. The disney parks will be just fine.

Bob 1.0 had 12 years to inflate the stock before his hasty departure. Look where it’s at now, without stock buybacks and dividends (thanks to Bob’s buy of 21CF).

The parks are not invincible, despite what many seem to think. Brand loyalty will only get you so far, eventually you have to nurture the relationship. Bob 2.0 has seemed hell bent on milking it dry for the past 7 years. But as long as credit limits are plentiful and emotion makes the decisions, he’ll have an audience willing to fork it over to him.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Bob 1.0 had 12 years to inflate the stock before his hasty departure. Look where it’s at now, without stock buybacks and dividends (thanks to Bob’s buy of 21CF).

The parks are not invincible, despite what many seem to think. Brand loyalty will only get you so far, eventually you have to nurture the relationship. Bob 2.0 has seemed hell bent on milking it dry for the past 7 years. But as long as credit limits are plentiful and emotion makes the decisions, he’ll have an audience willing to fork it over to him.

The disneyparks ARE INVINCIBLE. The pandemic proved it.

Folks on these boards have been complaining for years and years about how the short sighted, money grabs, falling quality was going to hurt the parks. It never happened. Even a global pandemic could not stop them.

 

[Kamikaze]

Is this Disney's first counterpunch, or just a coincidence?

​

There was no way they would continue the move in the current climate - makes no sense to take a risk that Florida could pull the promised tax advantages of the move at any time as they've proven they are willing to do.

Plus rumor is that Newsom is working on a similar package to keep Imagineering in CA now.

 

[GoofGoof]

Bob 1.0 had 12 years to inflate the stock before his hasty departure. Look where it’s at now, without stock buybacks and dividends (thanks to Bob’s buy of 21CF).

The parks are not invincible, despite what many seem to think. Brand loyalty will only get you so far, eventually you have to nurture the relationship. Bob 2.0 has seemed hell bent on milking it dry for the past 7 years. But as long as credit limits are plentiful and emotion makes the decisions, he’ll have an audience willing to fork it over to him.

The disneyparks ARE INVINCIBLE. The pandemic proved it.

Folks on these boards have been complaining for years and years about how the short sighted, money grabs, falling quality was going to hurt the parks. It never happened. Even a global pandemic could not stop them.

I agree with both of you. Short term and probably even medium term the parks are not going to fail. The mix of customers has shifted and may continue to shift but there is no fear of a dramatic short term decline, even with a recession. It is too difficult to say whether the current and past cut backs and missteps will eventually lead to long term decline. We can certainly say in certain aspects it will impact customer experience negatively but to what extent that translates into lost revenue is unknown.

 

[GoofGoof]

There was no way they would continue the move in the current climate - makes no sense to take a risk that Florida could pull the promised tax advantages of the move at any time as they've proven they are willing to do.

Plus rumor is that Newsom is working on a similar package to keep Imagineering in CA now.

The fact that they delayed and didn’t cancel the relocation means they are likely negotiating….with both states. CA has an opportunity to swoop in and keep those jobs now, but Disney is going to lose the FL tax credits plus some sunk costs on the building and property. They will eventually maybe sell the site off, but commercial real estate isn’t exactly in high demand these days with hybrid and virtual workforces so they will likely lose some money on the deal. CA will have to make a strong offer to compensate. If that happens I agree that the jobs will likely remain in CA.

At the same time the behind the scenes negotiations in FL continue. You want the jobs to come to your state, we want to keep RCID as is. Your move.

 

[Bullseye1967]

The fact that they delayed and didn’t cancel the relocation means they are likely negotiating….with both states. CA has an opportunity to swoop in and keep those jobs now, but Disney is going to lose the FL tax credits plus some sunk costs on the building and property. They will eventually maybe sell the site off, but commercial real estate isn’t exactly in high demand these days with hybrid and virtual workforces so they will likely lose some money on the deal. CA will have to make a strong offer to compensate. If that happens I agree that the jobs will likely remain in CA.

At the same time the behind the scenes negotiations in FL continue. You want the jobs to come to your state, we want to keep RCID as is. Your move.

Or it could be that all projects are going into standby mode.

 

[lazyboy97o]

The fact that they delayed and didn’t cancel the relocation means they are likely negotiating….with both states. CA has an opportunity to swoop in and keep those jobs now, but Disney is going to lose the FL tax credits plus some sunk costs on the building and property. They will eventually maybe sell the site off, but commercial real estate isn’t exactly in high demand these days with hybrid and virtual workforces so they will likely lose some money on the deal. CA will have to make a strong offer to compensate. If that happens I agree that the jobs will likely remain in CA.

At the same time the behind the scenes negotiations in FL continue. You want the jobs to come to your state, we want to keep RCID as is. Your move.

Who would these top secret Florida negotiations even be with? The tax deal wasn’t special, it’s not something the governor controls and gets to decide. Same with Reedy Creek, his agreement alone means nothing. Are Randy Fine and Spencer Roach meeting with Disney? Why would they care if Orange County loses out on any of this?

 

[GoofGoof]

Who would these top secret Florida negotiations even be with? The tax deal wasn’t special, it’s not something the governor controls and gets to decide. Same with Reedy Creek, his agreement alone means nothing. Are Randy Fine and Spencer Roach meeting with Disney? Why would they care if Orange County loses out on any of this?

So you don’t think anyone either from Disney or representing Disney is talking to anyone in the FL government about the current situation with RCID? The tax deal not being special doesn’t mean Disney can’t pull those jobs back. They just don’t get the tax credits. The leverage Disney has is pretty simple. If you don’t want us to pull back on moving those jobs to FL then here is what we want. In an election year I assume the Governor is hyper sensitive to negative PR, especially around job losses as a recession looms. He will not win Orange County, but he will also not get zero votes. It still matters.

 

[GoofGoof]

Or it could be that all projects are going into standby mode.

Could be, but the Lake Nona move would save the company money on salaries as well as generate half a billion dollars in state tax credits. Pulling back on that move doesn‘t seem like a logical cost cutting measure. It’s not like cancelling a new attraction or delaying constructing a hotel.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Is this Disney's first counterpunch, or just a coincidence?

Walt Disney Imagineering Move to Lake Nona Delayed to 2026​

​

The Walt Disney Company has delayed their plan to move Walt Disney Imagineering, consumer products, and other departments to Lake Nona until mid-2026. The move was previously planned to be completed next year, 2023.​

​

This announcement came at an all-hands-on-deck meeting today. Some employees were already searching for homes and are understandably upset about the delay because they had already sold their California homes.​

https://*****.com/2022/06/walt-disney-imagineering-move-to-lake-nona-delayed-to-mid-2026/

The move was initially announced because at the time TWDC was mad that California shutdown DLR for so long due to COVID and at that time TWDC and Florida were still friends.

It's totally different now. The pandemic is over and TWDC and Florida are no longer friends

I truly doubt this will happen now.

 

[mmascari]

So you don’t think anyone either from Disney or representing Disney is talking to anyone in the FL government about the current situation with RCID?

If I were Disney, I'm not sure I would be talking to them at all.



That doesn't mean they're doing nothing. In fact, I would also bet they're doing many many different things all along different lines. From at one end preparing to no longer need to pay RCID taxes and the impacts that will have on services and project priority. To at the other end setting up a super pac designed to get a new governor that's more business friendly and less concerned with culture wars. Plus 20 other options in between those two extremes. The one thing common to all those actions is that there's no reason to be the first to act today and no reason to execute any of them immediately. Which means, we're not going to hear any actions from Disney until they have to take one.

Secret negotiating meetings are hard to keep secret. They would probably come out in news someplace. Taking no public action is much easier to keep secret. Then, when it's time, they'll take all the action rapidly, all at the same time.

Depending on the plan they favor, that could be September/October or it could be right before the change date.

 

[lazyboy97o]

So you don’t think anyone either from Disney or representing Disney is talking to anyone in the FL government about the current situation with RCID? The tax deal not being special doesn’t mean Disney can’t pull those jobs back. They just don’t get the tax credits. The leverage Disney has is pretty simple. If you don’t want us to pull back on moving those jobs to FL then here is what we want. In an election year I assume the Governor is hyper sensitive to negative PR, especially around job losses as a recession looms. He will not win Orange County, but he will also not get zero votes. It still matters.

Someone may be talking to someone to say they’re talking but there is no reason to believe it is in anyway serious or meaningful. Negotiation requires specific goals and desires on which compromise can be made, and those with the authority to act on them. The State has no policy objectives that can be discussed and negotiated. The only objective is to try to harm Disney.



These hypothetical negotiations all revolve around the governor having absolute control. Even if he realizes that this isn’t going the way he wants and he needs to play nicer with Orange County, why do any of the Republican representatives from other counties care? They’re the ones who would have to actually implement the terms of a negotiation in the form of legislation.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Could be, but the Lake Nona move would save the company money on salaries as well as generate half a billion dollars in state tax credits. Pulling back on that move doesn‘t seem like a logical cost cutting measure. It’s not like cancelling a new attraction or delaying constructing a hotel.

Walt Disney Imagineering does a lot of project hiring. Delaying an attraction or hotel means they’re not hiring, and thus not paying, those employees and contractors. They can also give a whack at other strategies like more outsourcing.

 

[GoofGoof]

If I were Disney, I'm not sure I would be talking to them at all.

We know one side isn't bargaining in good faith or based on reality and actual facts. So, what's the use in negotiating with them?

That doesn't mean they're doing nothing. In fact, I would also bet they're doing many many different things all along different lines. From at one end preparing to no longer need to pay RCID taxes and the impacts that will have on services and project priority. To at the other end setting up a super pac designed to get a new governor that's more business friendly and less concerned with culture wars. Plus 20 other options in between those two extremes. The one thing common to all those actions is that there's no reason to be the first to act today and no reason to execute any of them immediately. Which means, we're not going to hear any actions from Disney until they have to take one.

Secret negotiating meetings are hard to keep secret. They would probably come out in news someplace. Taking no public action is much easier to keep secret. Then, when it's time, they'll take all the action rapidly, all at the same time.

Depending on the plan they favor, that could be September/October or it could be right before the change date.

Guys, it’s not secret negotiations like something out of a spy novel. Disney uses lobbyists just like any other corporation. These lobbyists meet with politicians for a living, literally every day, in the open with no attempt to hide it. There’s absolutely no need to keep it secret. Nobody cares. I can almost guarantee you that there are people on the ground in FL meeting with politicians and talking about what Disney wants.

How would Disney know what the state would or wouldn’t be willing to do without having someone ask? I’m not saying it’s that easy to end this, but it would be gross negligence for management to sit back and do nothing assuming there’s no good path forward. As I keep saying, this isn’t a Facebook argument where giving any ground or listening to anything the other side is saying shows weakness. Disney will do what’s best for TWDC. If that means negotiation and ultimately even a compromise with the state then that’s what they will do but I can see from a lot of comments here some people will be upset because they want them to keep up the fight even if that is ultimately not in the company’s best interest.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Guys, it’s not secret negotiations like something out of a spy novel. Disney uses lobbyists just like any other corporation. These lobbyists meet with politicians for a living, literally every day, in the open with no attempt to hide it. There’s absolutely no need to keep it secret. Nobody cares. I can almost guarantee you that there are people on the ground in FL meeting with politicians and talking about what Disney wants.

How would Disney know what the state would or wouldn’t be willing to do without having someone ask? I’m not saying it’s that easy to end this, but it would be gross negligence for management to sit back and do nothing assuming there’s no good path forward. As I keep saying, this isn’t a Facebook argument where giving any ground or listening to anything the other side is saying shows weakness. Disney will do what’s best for TWDC. If that means negotiation and ultimately even a compromise with the state then that’s what they will do but I can see from a lot of comments here some people will be upset because they want them to keep up the fight and take it to the evil Governor even if that is ultimately not in the company’s best interest.

Meeting who? Where? The Florida legislature is not in session. The politicians have other jobs and they’re not in Tallahassee. So that only leaves the governor.

They’re being called secret meetings because nobody has seemingly reported on these meetings occurring.

 

[GoofGoof]

Walt Disney Imagineering does a lot of project hiring. Delaying an attraction or hotel means they’re not hiring, and thus not paying, those employees and contractors. They can also give a whack at other strategies like more outsourcing.

We can just agree to disagree on that point. The delay in moving those jobs almost certainly is related to the current political conflict. In my opinion it’s very unlikely that it’s purely based on a pending recession and cutbacks as was implied in the post I was quoting.

 

[flynnibus]

Meeting who? Where? The Florida legislature is not in session. The politicians have other jobs and they’re not in Tallahassee. So that only leaves the governor.

? Every state representative has one or multiple offices and staff in their district. This isn't 1790 anymore... state reps are full time jobs, even when not in session.

 

[GoofGoof]

Meeting who? Where? The Florida legislature is not in session. The politicians have other jobs and they’re not in Tallahassee. So that only leaves the governor.

They’re being called secret meetings because nobody has seemingly reported on these meetings occurring. The governor was pretty adamant that he did not speak with Disney over Don’t Say Gay and would not speak to them. That makes talking with Disney noteworthy because it’s the exact opposite of what he has said.

Giving ground to an aggressor is absolutely taken as a sign of weakness. It is why appeasement never works and only leads to escalation. The only desire is to hurt Disney. There’s nothing to compromise over.

Seriously, it’s not this difficult. A lobbyist can drive or fly to meet with someone in person wherever they are. Go out to dinner, meet them at their office. They can also make phone calls, or use Zoom or Teams or FaceTime.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Seriously, it’s not this difficult. A lobbyist can drive or fly to meet with someone in person wherever they are. Go out to dinner, meet them at their office. They can also make phone calls, or use Zoom or Teams or FaceTime.

People who are still saying that Disney is pushing a dangerous ideology meeting with Disney is noteworthy, so no hints of that means secret. And again, what is their motivation? They’re getting what they want right now.

 

[mmascari]

Seriously, it’s not this difficult. A lobbyist can drive or fly to meet with someone in person wherever they are. Go out to dinner, meet them at their office. They can also make phone calls, or use Zoom or Teams or FaceTime.

They could, and someone would report about it. Nobody has reported that, and as you said, they don’t need to keep it secret about meeting. Ergo, they’re not meeting. Although, I would think they would want to keep the contents of meetings secret, which would also be hard.

The delay in moving those jobs almost certainly is related to the current political conflict. In my opinion it’s very unlikely that it’s purely based on a pending recession and cutbacks as was implied in the post I was quoting.

That may actually be the first public comment about the events, even if most of the details are just implied.

Disney will do what’s best for TWDC. If that means negotiation and ultimately even a compromise with the state then that’s what they will do but I can see from a lot of comments here some people will be upset because they want them to keep up the fight and take it to the evil Governor even if that is ultimately not in the company’s best interest.

Beyond unclear end goals for the governor, Disney is also working on a different time horizon. While the governor cares about November and 2024, Disney cares about the next 25+ years. We know Disney cannot leave FL. They don’t want just the best outcome from this event, they want the best outcome that’s for the long term and durable. If the give in on a bunch of stuff, they may become a punching bag again and again and again. That’s bad business.

Paradoxically that doesn’t necessarily mean they fight this at all. Just accepting it completely may actually be the best long term outcome. They’ll be evaluating that now and gaming out all the options from do nothing to scorched earth and everything in the middle. They do not need to rush.