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Expected park attendance numbers?

durangojim

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Any insiders here hear how many guests Disney expects to allow in the parks for the first few weeks that they open? Be heard ranges from 15-30% of normal but not sure what the means as an actual number.
 

Pangyal

Member
Thank you for posting this question! I have been wondering whether they are calculating it based on a percentage of a normal attendance day or actual capacity. For example, around 25000 people at MK is still a very busy day- like a sold out Halloween party. I’m not sure the “empty park, walk-on” experiences that people are hoping for, myself included, are going to happen.
 

durangojim

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Trying to imagine 15000 in my mind, and how empty that feels. Like in photos or in a visual way
Me too. If you figure there are about 6 lands at MK that would mean 2500 per land on average and let’s say 8 attractions per land that’s about 300 people per attraction/queue at any given time. Still seems like a fair amount except most rides can accommodate over 1000 guests/hr so maybe everything will work out great.
 

icc2515

Well-Known Member
Are we talking a quarter of the crowds on New Years, because 25% of those crowds is still crazy crowded. Just do a search of New Years or Christmas at the Magic Kingdom on Youtube and see what I mean. There is one video showing the line for Speedway back to 7 Dwarfs. 7 Dwarfs back to Dumbo. And that is with the "Please move forward filling all available space" Now we have 6 foot between groups the line will be out the front gate and down by the buses. :eek:

15,000 may be a little low. The OCregister, whoever they are, puts the MK capacity at 90,000. Touringplans, which I trust more, puts it at 100,000. So that would mean 22,500 or 25,000 for a quarter.
 

disneygeek90

Premium Member
The other thing to keep in mind is that 15000 now will feel a lot different than 15000 from before. If they run rides anything like Universal is doing, they’re going to be getting like 25-50% normal capacity on rides.
Universals wait times haven’t been too crazy, and that’s with express passes. You could make a case that Disney may even see smaller waits (if their park capacity is around what Universal has been filling).
 

disneygeek90

Premium Member
Are we talking a quarter of the crowds on New Years, because 25% of those crowds is still crazy crowded. Just do a search of New Years or Christmas at the Magic Kingdom on Youtube and see what I mean. There is one video showing the line for Speedway back to 7 Dwarfs. 7 Dwarfs back to Dumbo. And that is with the "Please move forward filling all available space" Now we have 6 foot between groups the line will be out the front gate and down by the buses. :eek:

15,000 may be a little low. The OCregister, whoever they are, puts the MK capacity at 90,000. Touringplans, which I trust more, puts it at 100,000. So that would mean 22,500 or 25,000 for a quarter.
If we go with the 15k @WDW Pro stated that would be more in line with 25% of a normal day, not the NYE crowd.
 

icc2515

Well-Known Member
The other thing to keep in mind is that 15000 now will feel a lot different than 15000 from before. If they run rides anything like Universal is doing, they’re going to be getting like 25-50% normal capacity on rides.
Good point 20,000 looks like 40,000 real quick with 50% ride capacity.
 

icc2515

Well-Known Member
If we go with the 15k @WDW Pro stated that would be more in line with 25% of a normal day, not the NYE crowd.
So what you're saying is that the number of people they let in will be a sliding scale. (assuming a constant 25% number, which is supposed to rise with time) More people being let in in the summer and a lower number in Aug when the kids might go back to school and more around Christmas and New Years? You see how this can get confusing real quick with the numbers changing quite significantly. Are we talking 25% of average number of guests throughout the year ex total attendance for the year divided by 365 then 25% of that. 25% of seasonal attendance, 25% of maximum attendance, 25% of daily attendance per day. I'm going with 25% of max capacity as in the number that they close the park to all guests like New Years. No way Disney is going to short change themselves. Just my opinion.
 

disneygeek90

Premium Member
So what you're saying is that the number of people they let in will be a sliding scale. (assuming a constant 25% number, which is supposed to rise with time) More people being let in in the summer and a lower number in Aug when the kids might go back to school and more around Christmas and New Years? You see how this can get confusing real quick with the numbers changing quite significantly. Are we talking 25% of average number of guests throughout the year ex total attendance for the year divided by 365 then 25% of that. 25% of seasonal attendance, 25% of maximum attendance, 25% of daily attendance per day. I'm going with 25% of max capacity as in the number that they close the park to all guests like New Years. No way Disney is going to short change themselves. Just my opinion.
There’s no way of knowing when capacity will increase. We’d have to actual get a handle on number of cases until I think they’ll raise capacity. I would think they’re not gauging their max capacity off of their busiest day of the year that’s wall to wall people. 25% of that is still a lot post-covid.

IMO, they need to be basing it off 25% of an average day.
 

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