Eliminating some Florida resident annual passes?

[Horizons78]

I'm happy to comment on the annual pass holder programs in general. While I can't speak to confirm exactly which passes will go away next year, I can tell you the eventual plan is to kill off most of the annual pass system as we know it.

Here's what it might look like in the future:

First, the top tier pass will remain. People are willing to pay to not have to plan. But assuming you're not willing to pay that much...

I call it the Netflix Mail Order Strategy applied to park admissions. Passes will become subscription based, they will auto-renew annually, and you will have X number of days over a period of 1 year that you can visit. Depending on how many days you wish to go, that will determine the price of the pass (much like how many DVDs you wanted to rent at the same time determined the price for your Netflix mail-order subscription). However, the catch is that you'll need to make a reservation in advance to visit the park (Just like you needed to add DVDs to your queue with Netflix). So you can't just get up and go with these lower tier passes, you'll have to login to the app and see if the day you wish to go is available, and then you will book it. Depending on the caliber of the pass you buy, you may have more options to visit. Additional inventory (day admissions) will be released throughout the year depending on internal attendance forecasts. They also might have some free days thrown in the model too, which are days where you wouldn't really need to book anything in advance because the projected attendance is just THAT low. This is very similar to how Disneyland's new passport works. It seems to be very popular, and that should allow them to better predict attendance in the parks and even out the demand.

Again, I can't comment on how or when this will roll out in Florida. I can only verify that this is the longterm strategy, so get ready.

I can only guess that most people have some defined point at which they would say, “no more mouse.”

I do know though that this would be my tipping point personally.

 

[Lilofan]

If you go a bunch of days not buying things, not staying in hotels etc. Then yes, your per day spending is way lower then the once every 3 or 4 years people. Doesn't really matter if it's in your state. Matter of how many hours you are hanging around the park over a year.

That is a ridiculous assumption. So if the Central FL residents stand in line for 120 min waiting to ride because they didn't get FP, does that add to the ridiculous "hanging" around the park tally hours? Local Orlando guests, oh no you are not staying in hotels?. And locals know better. They probably buy their Disney T shirts at the discount outlet stores. You better add to your tally of "hanging around the park" when the locals take their own sweet time looking at all the holiday decorations in the theme parks.

 

[Moana76]

I can only guess that most people have some defined point at which they would say, “no more mouse.”

I do know though that this would be my tipping point personally.

This would be the end for me as well. I like the pass that I have, and being able to go as much as I can with this pass gives me more reason to go whenever I can. The more I go, the more I spend. And if they eliminate my pass, they'll get nothing because I'll vote with my wallet. My kids are getting older anyway and are not as interested in Disney as they were.

 

[monothingie]

I'm happy to comment on the annual pass holder programs in general. While I can't speak to confirm exactly which passes will go away next year, I can tell you the eventual plan is to kill off most of the annual pass system as we know it.

Here's what it might look like in the future:

First, the top tier pass will remain. People are willing to pay to not have to plan. But assuming you're not willing to pay that much...

I call it the Netflix Mail Order Strategy applied to park admissions. Passes will become subscription based, they will auto-renew annually, and you will have X number of days over a period of 1 year that you can visit. Depending on how many days you wish to go, that will determine the price of the pass (much like how many DVDs you wanted to rent at the same time determined the price for your Netflix mail-order subscription). However, the catch is that you'll need to make a reservation in advance to visit the park (Just like you needed to add DVDs to your queue with Netflix). So you can't just get up and go with these lower tier passes, you'll have to login to the app and see if the day you wish to go is available, and then you will book it. Depending on the caliber of the pass you buy, you may have more options to visit. Additional inventory (day admissions) will be released throughout the year depending on internal attendance forecasts. They also might have some free days thrown in the model too, which are days where you wouldn't really need to book anything in advance because the projected attendance is just THAT low. This is very similar to how Disneyland's new passport works. It seems to be very popular, and that should allow them to better predict attendance in the parks and even out the demand.

Again, I can't comment on how or when this will roll out in Florida. I can only verify that this is the longterm strategy, so get ready.

Two things to note if accurate. First, this will kill Epcot, locals sustain that park through the never ending seasons of festivals. Adding planning requirements to go to F&W would make it very unappealing. Second, since when has Disney cared about crowds? I find it laughable that they are taking steps to address crowding through AP holders. They want as many bodies in the parks at all times, even if the pass becomes a loss leader the amount of money spent on merchandise and food more than make up for it. Case in point is the Halloween Party Pass.

 

[dreamfinder]

I’m sure I’ll get a ton of backlash for this question, but whatever....I’m genuinely curious about this.

I’ve always wondered...why is there a Florida resident AP at all? I’d think a discounted daily/multi-day option would serve Disney better to fill slower times of the year (if there are any of those anymore).

I suspect that something is better than nothing. They do still run more targeted promotions that will attempt to bring locals in during those slower days. But it's the same reason why the offer hotel discounts to FL Res. Get them to plan an overnight, brings in a hotel stay, and most likely at least some food purchases. And while a local might not be buying hundreds or thousands of dollars of merch each trip like a tourist might, they still make lots of smaller purchases.

Look at things like F&W which by all accounts is hugely popular among locals. So while WDW isn't selling them multiple one day tickets (if they only came say Friday nights) they end up selling 3-5 (or more, just spitballing here) servings of highly marked up food/booze at the booths. If you get that $20-50 each time they come during food & wine and they make multiple trips, that's a decent profit boost.

If you listen to at least popular podcast, both WDW & DLR are 80/20 mix on locals/tourists, but DLR is 80 local/20 tourists while WDW is 20 local/80 tourists. The locals do help keep the parks going during slow times. Some amount of good will helps to keep locals stopping buy doing "staycations" when other people may be cutting back on big trips.

 

[Portable Hole]

First, this will kill Epcot, locals sustain that park through the never ending seasons of festivals. Adding planning requirements to go to F&W would make it very unappealing.

I suspect such a pass would take this into account, with plenty of "free" Epcot days during the festivals.

They also might have some free days thrown in the model too, which are days where you wouldn't really need to book anything in advance because the projected attendance is just THAT low.

 

[larryz]

The way things are going, you won't be able to buy ANY tickets without joining D23...

 

[fotofx]

I can tell you it will not be Silver that gets cut. New TV advertising here in Florida uses the silver as the price point for the monthly charge on the finance.

 

[The Visionary Soul]

Two things to note if accurate. First, this will kill Epcot, locals sustain that park through the never ending seasons of festivals. Adding planning requirements to go to F&W would make it very unappealing. Second, since when has Disney cared about crowds? I find it laughable that they are taking steps to address crowding through AP holders. They want as many bodies in the parks at all times, even if the pass becomes a loss leader the amount of money spent on merchandise and food more than make up for it. Case in point is the Halloween Party Pass.

They want to even demand. I said nothing about addressing crowding. The goal here is to even out the demand. Imagine every park crowded to the same density at all times every day. That’s the goal. Makes staffing and maintenance easier to predict.

 

[monothingie]

That’s the goal. Makes staffing and maintenance easier to predict.

If only they had some large subset of data that they could work off of, like dining and hotel reservations, as well as number of allocated FP+ at 180, 60, and 30 day windows to make these decisions...

 

[monothingie]

I can tell you it will not be Silver that gets cut. New TV advertising here in Florida uses the silver as the price point for the monthly charge on the finance.

Gold is a major selling point for DVC.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I am mainly concerned about the weekday select because that's what I have, and if they get rid of that one, I won't be able to keep a pass any more.

Same! Weekday Select is a really good value. The days that are blocked out are days I don't want to go anyway.

definitely hope they don't end the weekday pass - that's the one we've had and will rebuy in 2021

Same.

 

[Allyp]

I've got the Platinum pass, only because my husband is a Cast Member and I would be subject to more blockout dates in the lower tiers than he could get on his Main Gate (which we save his passes for out of town guests). What is going to hurt is that our two year old will need his own pass next year... at the ADULT rate. At the rate his grandparents visit, he will need his own pass so we basically have to start budgeting for his pass now. I wish there was a child pass available. If they brought the child pass back, I wonder how many more APs they would sell instead of charging everyone at the Adult price.

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

We got 3 months free with our renewal. (I left that part out in my post) I'm not entirely sure if that offer is still going on.

-Rob

When do they run that promo??

 

[Vacationeer]

Disney is focusing on guest spending per capita as a solution to crowding, guest experience and earnings. Between Magic Bands and the newest data tools, they see who is spending what. Disney will correct anything that brings "per capita" profit down by making less expensive travel styles cost more one way or another. That's what I think after reading the statements below.
A bit like playing with fire; it won't be easy to recapture guests they've alienated if they need to rely on their spending in the future. At that point maybe a good sale incentive is all they would need? I dunno.

• Bob says, “We know that crowding can be an issue and when our parks are at their most crowded, the guest experience is not what we would like it to be,” Iger said. “So we are leveraging the popularity to increase pricing and to spread demand — to get much more strategic about how we are pricing, so that the parks are still accessible but in the highest peak periods we are trying to manage the attendance so that the guest experience isn’t diminished.”
• CFO says, “Attendance at our domestic parks was comparable to the first quarter last year, however per capita spending was up 7% on higher admissions, food and beverage and merchandise spending. Per room spending at our domestic hotels was up 5% and occupancy was up three percentage points to 94%. So far this quarter, domestic resort reservations are pacing up 4% compared to prior year, while booked rates are up 1%.”
  
  ^Earlier this year. From 2019 3rdQ report:
  

  The Walt Disney Company Reports Third Quarter and Nine Months Earnings for Fiscal 2019 - The Walt Disney Company

  BURBANK, Calif.–The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) today reported quarterly earnings for its third fiscal quarter ended June 29, 2019. Diluted earnings per share …Read More

  www.thewaltdisneycompany.com
• "The decrease in operating income at our domestic parks and resorts was due to higher costs and lower volume, partially offset by increased average per capita guest spending. Higher costs were driven by labor and other cost inflation and expenses associated with Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, which opened at Disneyland Resort on May 31. The decrease in volume was due to lower attendance, partially offset by higher occupied room nights. Guest spending growth was primarily due to higher average ticket prices and increased food, beverage and merchandise spending."

 

[jmp85]

What you don't get is Disney has an overcrowding problem. Why give anyone a discount? Look at what Disney has been doing, upping prices everywhere they can. AP's are too good of deal. That's not my thought, that is what Disney is doing, think Disney loves the AP crowd? Think when the accountants get together they care about anything other than numbers? They look at revenue per person, per day. They can build more attractions or slim down the crowds and Disney has stated they are going to price poor people out. Demand pricing etc. That is their plan, charge until they hit the point where they can't get more revenue per head, per day.

Believe me, don't believe me. It's just business. I'm sure free FP's will be going away in the near future as well. Not my decisions so don't blame me.

When and where did Disney state they were going to price poor people out? Where can I find details of "their plan" you're referring to. Curious minds inquire. Thanks in advance.

 

[SoFloMagic]

Why offer coasters for APs who go 4 times if youre worried about too many AP visits?

That said, it seems to me like deleting silver and focusing on the select pass where they can send you to the park of their choosing makes sense and jibes with the magnet strategy. I feel like this could replace silver and weekday select and they would leave gold, platinum, and epcot after 4 (or should I say 3:45 if you caught that thread ) alone.

 

[dreamfinder]

When and where did Disney state they were going to price poor people out? Where can I find details of "their plan" you're referring to. Curious minds inquire. Thanks in advance.

See the post directly above yours.

• Bob says, “We know that crowding can be an issue and when our parks are at their most crowded, the guest experience is not what we would like it to be,” Iger said. “So we are leveraging the popularity to increase pricing and to spread demand — to get much more strategic about how we are pricing, so that the parks are still accessible but in the highest peak periods we are trying to manage the attendance so that the guest experience isn’t diminished."

They won't directly say they only want to attract the rich, but economic theory (maybe the law of supply and demand, it's been a few years since Econ) indicates that when demand goes up, you either increase the supply, or raise the price. Since WDW hasn't done much net new build (most of us would argue recent build out fever is simply necessary to resolve years of stagnant parks), they are choosing to raise the price to level out demand. As long as people keep going in large numbers, management will continue to raise prices until attendance levels out. Raise the price too high, too many people stop going. Keep it too low, too many people go. They are trying to find that equilibrium which by it's nature, will price out some segment of the population.

 

[jmp85]

See the post directly above yours.



They won't directly say they only want to attract the rich, but economic theory (maybe the law of supply and demand, it's been a few years since Econ) indicates that when demand goes up, you either increase the supply, or raise the price. Since WDW hasn't done much net new build (most of us would argue recent build out fever is simply necessary to resolve years of stagnant parks), they are choosing to raise the price to level out demand. As long as people keep going in large numbers, management will continue to raise prices until attendance levels out. Raise the price too high, too many people stop going. Keep it too low, too many people go. They are trying to find that equilibrium which by it's nature, will price out some segment of the population.

Based on Bob's quote from the earnings call it sounds like they want to smooth out demand. This is usually achieved through variable pricing. I think this is why you saw the Platinum AP go through the roof this past year while the Select and Weekday barely moved (I think the Weekday pass was unchanged). I think they will continue to squeeze prices everywhere they can, but I don't expect them to eliminate Florida APs because these provide Disney with a way to shift demand (you can't come on the weekend, you can't come to MK today, etc.).

 

[Oddysey]

I'm happy to comment on the annual pass holder programs in general. While I can't speak to confirm exactly which passes will go away next year, I can tell you the eventual plan is to kill off most of the annual pass system as we know it.

Here's what it might look like in the future:

First, the top tier pass will remain. People are willing to pay to not have to plan. But assuming you're not willing to pay that much...

I call it the Netflix Mail Order Strategy applied to park admissions. Passes will become subscription based, they will auto-renew annually, and you will have X number of days over a period of 1 year that you can visit. Depending on how many days you wish to go, that will determine the price of the pass (much like how many DVDs you wanted to rent at the same time determined the price for your Netflix mail-order subscription). However, the catch is that you'll need to make a reservation in advance to visit the park (Just like you needed to add DVDs to your queue with Netflix). So you can't just get up and go with these lower tier passes, you'll have to login to the app and see if the day you wish to go is available, and then you will book it. Depending on the caliber of the pass you buy, you may have more options to visit. Additional inventory (day admissions) will be released throughout the year depending on internal attendance forecasts. They also might have some free days thrown in the model too, which are days where you wouldn't really need to book anything in advance because the projected attendance is just THAT low. This is very similar to how Disneyland's new passport works. It seems to be very popular, and that should allow them to better predict attendance in the parks and even out the demand.

Again, I can't comment on how or when this will roll out in Florida. I can only verify that this is the longterm strategy, so get ready.

Wow if this is true, this does not appeal to me at all. Maybe this will appeal to generations that come after me, but in a system that I find already to rigid with respect to spontaneity, this will be the straw that breaks my back as a consumer once and for all. I love Disney, but a this system would kill my enjoyment of the product. Maybe it is for the better. I have given way to much money to the mouse over the years as it is.