DVC resale prices affected by the current situation ?

macefamily

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I'm not looking, but I was wondering that given the current shutdown of Disney resorts, will this affect how resale points are priced ?
 

Minthorne

Well-Known Member
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I'm thinking a gradual decline in price per point for resale and some additional incentives for direct sale are probably in the future.
 
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Lensman

Premium Member
It will have to be long term issues and a recession to see drops in resale on average or incentives directly.
I agree.

The 2008 recession started a multi-year decline in resale prices, so I think a lot of this depends on how the overall economy goes. Plus there's the Disney-specific issue of when the parks re-open and whether as many people will want to visit. Please note that we should attempt to keep this thread from becoming political or too speculative.

OP, are you looking to buy or is this just idle speculation?
 

Club Cooloholic

Well-Known Member
I agree.

The 2008 recession started a multi-year decline in resale prices, so I think a lot of this depends on how the overall economy goes. Plus there's the Disney-specific issue of when the parks re-open and whether as many people will want to visit. Please note that we should attempt to keep this thread from becoming political or too speculative.

OP, are you looking to buy or is this just idle speculation?
I think some people might rethink theme park vacations though. There plenty of people who don't mind crowds etc but other that will come away from this thing with a phobia. Also Disney being forced to scale back a lot of new improvements, folks might be turned off. Just an opinion. That said, I think resale will be a healthy market, but Riveria? Was it really selling super well? I just find that hard to believe, I compared a 1-Bedroom 3 night stay there vs legacy properties, and the cost for a preferred view was 50 points higher that AKL savannah view or BWV pool or boardwalk view. That is just crazy to me.
 

nickys

Premium Member
Ironically there could be a bit of an opposite effect.

Once things get back to normal, there may well be some people who have regularly been renting points who decide to buy. Whenever there’s a discussion about buying, there are also those who advocate renting rather than buying to avoid the long term commitment. After the problems this has thrown up over cancellations, they may decide it’s better to be in control of their reservations in future.
 

macefamily

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I don't intend to buy at this point. I'm going to be very conservative where I throw my cash reserves.
Not sure where this ride is going to take us.
 

LuvtheGoof

Title Removed by Request
Premium Member
I think some people might rethink theme park vacations though. There plenty of people who don't mind crowds etc but other that will come away from this thing with a phobia. Also Disney being forced to scale back a lot of new improvements, folks might be turned off. Just an opinion. That said, I think resale will be a healthy market, but Riveria? Was it really selling super well? I just find that hard to believe, I compared a 1-Bedroom 3 night stay there vs legacy properties, and the cost for a preferred view was 50 points higher that AKL savannah view or BWV pool or boardwalk view. That is just crazy to me.
Riviera has been selling better, in its first 10 months of sales, than CCV, VGF, and even Poly.
 

helenabear

Well-Known Member
I think some people might rethink theme park vacations though. There plenty of people who don't mind crowds etc but other that will come away from this thing with a phobia. Also Disney being forced to scale back a lot of new improvements, folks might be turned off. Just an opinion. That said, I think resale will be a healthy market, but Riveria? Was it really selling super well? I just find that hard to believe, I compared a 1-Bedroom 3 night stay there vs legacy properties, and the cost for a preferred view was 50 points higher that AKL savannah view or BWV pool or boardwalk view. That is just crazy to me.
Yes some will rethink, and some will decide to sell. Just like after 2001 people did. But the deals were a year or two later tbh. We even still had great deals in 2004 from travel issues in 2002 or 2003. The really good deals from the 2008 recession were not found for a year or so after 2010 had great deals. We just weren't in the market to add on.
 

Minthorne

Well-Known Member
It will have to be long term issues and a recession to see drops in resale on average or incentives directly.
Most economists are reporting this will be a deeper recession than 2008.


 

Club Cooloholic

Well-Known Member
Ironically there could be a bit of an opposite effect.

Once things get back to normal, there may well be some people who have regularly been renting points who decide to buy. Whenever there’s a discussion about buying, there are also those who advocate renting rather than buying to avoid the long term commitment. After the problems this has thrown up over cancellations, they may decide it’s better to be in control of their reservations in future.
Eh, maybe. I really think this wil
Riviera has been selling better, in its first 10 months of sales, than CCV, VGF, and even Poly.
Did it really? That is surprising. Would love to see the numbers, is that overall points or the amount of money used to purchase?
I will say that anyone deciding to buy there is probably going to be compelled to spend more than usual do to the high amount of points needed for many bookings.
 

nickys

Premium Member
Eh, maybe. I really think this wil
Did it really? That is surprising. Would love to see the numbers, is that overall points or the amount of money used to purchase?
I will say that anyone deciding to buy there is probably going to be compelled to spend more than usual do to the high amount of points needed for many bookings.
Riviera sold more points per month than the other resorts. It’s a lot bigger of course, so a lot more points still to go. Will be interesting to see what happens.
 

helenabear

Well-Known Member
Most economists are reporting this will be a deeper recession than 2008.


No offense but doom and gloom sells. The longer we are off yes, the worse it can be, but until it hits and stays for longer than 6 months, it will be hard to speculate lower prices.
 

Minthorne

Well-Known Member
No offense but doom and gloom sells. The longer we are off yes, the worse it can be, but until it hits and stays for longer than 6 months, it will be hard to speculate lower prices.
No offense taken - I just can't rose color glasses around the reality.

 

helenabear

Well-Known Member
No offense taken - I just can't rose color glasses around the reality.

Warn us it could.... not rose color but we aren't there yet. Plus my comment stands. Prices do not adjust instantly. We need at least 6-12 months to see regular major price changes. People don't sell instantly flooding the market no matter what.
 

Minthorne

Well-Known Member
Warn us it could.... not rose color but we aren't there yet. Plus my comment stands. Prices do not adjust instantly. We need at least 6-12 months to see regular major price changes. People don't sell instantly flooding the market no matter what.
Prices will drop. Definitely.
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
I suspect folks on the fence may be motivated to sell, maybe some folks simply need the money these days will sell, so the prices may go down, but keep in mind Disney controls the resale market through ROFR therefore there will be no crash in my opinion.

Even with all the limitations Disney placed on resale points, the resale market remains surprisingly strong.

At a glance, the lowest I saw was $105 a point for 200 points...
 

Club Cooloholic

Well-Known Member
I suspect folks on the fence may be motivated to sell, maybe some folks simply need the money these days will sell, so the prices may go down, but keep in mind Disney controls the resale market through ROFR therefore there will be no crash in my opinion.

Even with all the limitations Disney placed on resale points, the resale market remains surprisingly strong.

At a glance, the lowest I saw was $105 a point for 200 points...
The thing with selling is that it is not an overnight deal, it's at least a two to three month process(and one Disney has the ability to slow down by waiting till the last day to decide during the buy back period.
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
The thing with selling is that it is not an overnight deal, it's at least a two to three month process(and one Disney has the ability to slow down by waiting till the last day to decide during the buy back period.
True, this also serves to stabilize the prices and avoid any crash. And good point, and even if folks need money now they cant wait two to three months, therefore selling DVC is not a solution. Thanks Disney.
 

Club Cooloholic

Well-Known Member
True, this also serves to stabilize the prices and avoid any crash. And good point, and even if folks need money now they cant wait two to three months, therefore selling DVC is not a solution. Thanks Disney.
Yup, and that timeline is if you have a buyer ready to go, unless you put it on the market at a super cheap price it might take awhile to actually find a buyer.
 
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