Until we have an effective Vax or reach the point that enough people have had it and transmission is reduced we will see what we see on cases per day. Masks will help slow it, but overall this is a virus in the same family as cold viruses. It will spread and infect just as colds and flue's do. The message of "lean" to live with this, would be far better served now, than the panic being fed daily by everyone.
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Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?
- Thread starter Logan L
- Start date
Case numbers can be mitigated though, as seen elsewhere.
schuelma
Well-Known Member
NY completely locked down the state.
Cases will eventually start to decrease but I would be surprised if Florida follows the April/May state trajectories.
MaximumEd
Well-Known Member
I would add “for a time”. Then, human nature kicks in and round and round we go. We are seeing that now with some places that were hit hard early, locked down for a while, and now cases are rising again, because people.
People need to do their part to fight this. Otherwise it won’t be climate change or a meteor to worry about. A vaccine would be a huge boost of course but that won’t save the next year.
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
Victoria declares 'state of disaster,' locking down millions in Melbourne to fight a soaring coronavirus outbreak | CNN
The premier of Victoria plunged the region into a "state of disaster" on Sunday, announcing even stricter lockdown measures, introducing a nightly curfew and banning virtually all trips outdoors.
www.cnn.com
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
So did California. Nobody can say California wasn't strict enough or opened too soon. Yet, once they started opening a similar spike happened to the Florida spike.
That's why my theory is that everywhere that successfully suppressed the curve early on with "mitigation" will have a spike upon reopening and that it takes a certain percentage of the population infected to be able to keep the numbers low and steady while opened long term.
Hopefully I'm right but that's my theory based on looking at the data.
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
There’s a school of thought that the transmission of the virus slows once it hits around 20% of the population. Not herd immunity, but NY state is an example of this, as well as to varying degrees Italy and Sweden. I’m becoming of the mind that lockdowns are delaying the inevitable; we have 50 states to look to for examples and just about each have had waves notwithstanding different approaches at different times.
Ragerunner
Well-Known Member
ifFlo
If Florida opens back up the bars and throws open brick and mortor schools over the next few weeks we will look back at these types of numbers as the good old days by November. This will cause more damage to the travel industry and the state’s economy.
I hope I am very wrong but the virus doesn’t care what I hope for.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
With respect to WDW, looking at the data which is mature enough at this point, it does not appear that there has been any increase in the spread due to the reopening of WDW.
I've spent four days in the parks over the past two weeks. I would have been very surprised to find WDW leading to spread. If the policies and procedures in place currently aren't "safe" then we might as well completely give up.
As I told them on my post stay survey, I hope that the "enhanced cleaning procedures" at the resorts become the normal cleaning procedures after COVID. Then I won't have to spend a half an hour wiping down every hotel room with sanitizing wipes upon arrival.
I've spent four days in the parks over the past two weeks. I would have been very surprised to find WDW leading to spread. If the policies and procedures in place currently aren't "safe" then we might as well completely give up.
As I told them on my post stay survey, I hope that the "enhanced cleaning procedures" at the resorts become the normal cleaning procedures after COVID. Then I won't have to spend a half an hour wiping down every hotel room with sanitizing wipes upon arrival.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
Someone on these forums reported that a friend who was at WDW at the time of their post had gotten back a positive test result and is not ending their trip, reporting their results, or self-isolating.
Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
Without robust contract tracing its really tough to tell where and when the exposure occurred. Its really the Achilles heal of this whole thing right now.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
Point being...that person could be spreading the virus in the parks/resorts. I wasn't talking about where they contracted it.
It's certainly possible that daily cases will continue to decline in Florida.
But there are several problems with your theory:
First, you are assuming there is no effect by level of mitigation. Whether masks or no masks, social distancing or not, locked down or open. This is simple epidemiology 101 -- this stuff DOES matter. Not every area has faced an identical curve.
For example, a country that really hasn't taken significant mitigation, Brazil:
Now, Florida is taking some fair mitigation measures: Bars are closing, masking is pretty common. And lots of people are voluntarily social distancing. That might be enough to drive infections down.
So the curve is mostly dependent on the actions of individuals, businesses and government.
But let's say you're right.... that it's a simple matter of, "it came way down in NY, came way down in Italy.. it will come way down and stay down at a big outbreak"
Well, there is a major massive problem with that theory of yours: The USA had a massive outbreak in April.... yet another massive outbreak in June/July. Now, under your theory, you'll explain it simply by, "different areas got hit at different times"
So.... follow your own logic... South Florida was hit very very hard. By your logic, the other regions of Florida will eventually see spikes similar to South Florida, to New York, etc..
So cases might drop in heavily hit South Florida, but that might be countered by rises in cases through the rest of the state?
I'll end this post on a lesson from Australia.
There has been some attention lately to a "massive second wave" in Australia. I believe some are trying to cite it as evidence that lockdowns don't matter. But really, the evidence is the exact opposite.
The new "epicenter" in Australia is Melbourne/Victoria -- a City of 5 million within a state of about 6 million people. Their massive 2nd-wave-spike is still only about 600 cases per day. In comparison, Orlando Fl/Orange Cty -- has a population of 285,000 and about 1.3 million in the county. Orange Cty has a total of 30,000 positive cases so far. The entire country of Australia has had only 22,000 cases.
So what we are calling a "spike" in Australia, is a fraction of what we are seeing in Orlando/Orange Cty. It would be the equivalent of Orlando/Orange Cty having about 100 cases per day.
In response, Victoria/Melbourne has gone into a very strict lockdown. So this "second wave" will be contained, it likely won't get massively out of control.
Australia has had a total of 221 deaths. Orange Cty Florida -- 234 deaths.
Australia finds 221 deaths in the country to be unacceptable, taking aggressive actions to prevent it from getting worse. A single county in Florida has even more deaths, and thinks that's good enough to open theme parks.
Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
Could be, hopefully wearing a mask and keeping away will prevent that but to your point, not smart for that person to be doing that.
We've seen massive increase in spread in Florida that is linked to the re-opening, including the theme parks.
We don't know how much of that increase is attributable to the theme parks. And remember, we mostly aren't talking about spread while riding Splash Mountain. It's the spread when an infected family from Miami decides to drive up for the weekend, spreading it at rest stops and restaurants on the way. It's the spread when people hop into an uber to get to Magic Kingdom. etc, etc.
Considering the amount of uncontrolled spread in Florida, we don't know what portion of it traces back to WDW. But it is extremely likely (practically certain) that WDW being open is a contributor to the current spread.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
That isn't even contact tracing. That's unbelievable selfishness and the person is a word that starts with an "a" and has 7 letters.
Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
I know this one.... I know this one. It will come to me.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Not sure if it’s possible to contract trace and determine without a doubt that a guest was infected while on WDW property.
This is just my opinion, but with all the precautions WDW has in place and with specifically the mask rule being followed by what looks like 98 percent of everyone there, you are more than likely to Get COVID when traveling to the gates of WDW and after you leave WDW.
Let’s say someone knows they have COVID and really wants to go on their WDW vacation, I can’t speak for how many folks they will infect while getting there and after they leave, but if they truly follow all the rules while at WDW, it’s a low chance they will infect someone with the outside possibility of the seated dining.
But that's the point -- Getting there, leaving there, eating there -- those are all parts of the equation. Closing Disney World wouldn't be a "punishment" for their own actions. It would simply be recognition that getting there, leaving there, dining there and near there, etc -- are all high risks.