Dive in or run

[Dranth]

So, I keep looking at DVC but it falls short every time I dig into the numbers. I know it may just not be for me but I was wanting to throw out a few of the main points that are holding me back. I am hoping to get some constructive push back from members so I can get some good opposing views to chew on and either jump in if it makes sense or bow out and let it go if not.

Some basics:

• I would be buying resale.
• No financing.
• I am leaning AK but am open to others if there are good reasons.
• Just two of us, no kids would be coming.
• We like to go once a year for around 10 days. Typically, in the Oct-Dec time frame though we avoid Thanksgiving and Christmas.
• Looking at an October use year as I will never go to Florida June-September on purpose.
• Because of the length of stay, it looks like we would need in the 200-250-point contract range. That would work for any studio stay and give the option to bank/borrow for the occasional 1 bedroom.

With that in mind, I have two main issues.

First, due to the changes with resale, each new resort that comes online will now increase the number of people able to compete for the pool of rooms I would be eligible to use. This may not be a big deal now but could become one if they start churning out new resorts again in the coming years. This also may lead to legacy resale contracts being harder to sell if you ever want out.

Second, with maintenance fees jumping 4% or more yearly, at least of late, the totals start getting absurd. For example, a 250-point contract at AK would be around $2,000 worth of fees this year but in 20 years it is more than double that. 30 years, more than triple and if you hang on to the end, closing in on $14,000 a year. I know the argument can be made that standard rooms will increase just as much if not more over the same time but there are more forces at work to combat standard room increases and tools to work around it vs. DVC maintenance fees.

Finally, as a side question, has anyone gone through Disney directly and been able to talk them down from the absurd point costs?

 

[correcaminos]

Only you can decide if the cost is worth it. Each financial situation and desire for room type is different.

The last question is a flat out no. You cannot talk them down. Only disney cruises sometimes gives better deals. Calling won't do a thing. All that said both SSR and OKW are pretty good deals direct compared to others.

Buy where you want to stay most though. That's my only solid advice.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

So, I keep looking at DVC but it falls short every time I dig into the numbers. I know it may just not be for me but I was wanting to throw out a few of the main points that are holding me back. I am hoping to get some constructive push back from members so I can get some good opposing views to chew on and either jump in if it makes sense or bow out and let it go if not.

Some basics:

• I would be buying resale.
• No financing.
• I am leaning AK but am open to others if there are good reasons.
• Just two of us, no kids would be coming.
• We like to go once a year for around 10 days. Typically, in the Oct-Dec time frame though we avoid Thanksgiving and Christmas.
• Looking at an October use year as I will never go to Florida June-September on purpose.
• Because of the length of stay, it looks like we would need in the 200-250-point contract range. That would work for any studio stay and give the option to bank/borrow for the occasional 1 bedroom.

With that in mind, I have two main issues.

First, due to the changes with resale, each new resort that comes online will now increase the number of people able to compete for the pool of rooms I would be eligible to use. This may not be a big deal now but could become one if they start churning out new resorts again in the coming years. This also may lead to legacy resale contracts being harder to sell if you ever want out.

If you buy at AKL, you will always have the 11 month window ahead of any other DVC member. As long as you are ok with just getting a regular studio, you won't have any problem getting the dates that you want. If you want to stay at a different resort, then it just depends on availability and the exact dates that you might want to stay. We've rarely not gotten what we wanted at 7 months, even in Oct and the first 2 weeks of Dec. You just have to be flexible with the dates.

Second, with maintenance fees jumping 4% or more yearly, at least of late, the totals start getting absurd. For example, a 250-point contract at AK would be around $2,000 worth of fees this year but in 20 years it is more than double that. 30 years, more than triple and if you hang on to the end, closing in on $14,000 a year. I know the argument can be made that standard rooms will increase just as much if not more over the same time but there are more forces at work to combat standard room increases and tools to work around it vs. DVC maintenance fees.

Disney resort rooms have gone up a lot quicker than DVC dues, so you should do better with DVC.

Finally, as a side question, has anyone gone through Disney directly and been able to talk them down from the absurd point costs?

Sorry, but no. The price is the price.

 

[CastAStone]

Second, with maintenance fees jumping 4% or more yearly, at least of late, the totals start getting absurd.

The biggest driver of recent MF increases has been Disney raising their internal minimum wage from ~$9 to now $14. It goes to $15 in October and thereafter adjusts relative to inflation for the balance of the current union contract so next years MF increases should be the last “big ones”.

 

[CastAStone]

So, I keep looking at DVC but it falls short every time I dig into the numbers. I know it may just not be for me but I was wanting to throw out a few of the main points that are holding me back.

If you do the math vs 30% off of the comparable deluxe hotel room in the way a corporate finance person would do the math, you will find that resale prices have approached and in a number of cases crossed the breakeven point. 1 bedrooms and dates in the fall are generally the worst values vs cash and standard studios in the summer tend to be the best, and SSR, OKW 2057, and AKV remain the most likely to show a positive ROI.

The rationale for buying DVC at these prices is to ensure access to a 1 or 2 bedroom Villa, which can be hard to book at cash prices, or because you believe Disney hotel prices will increase significantly closer to the rate of a baseline investment (e.g. the S&P 500) than they will inflation.

Or because you have cash to blow and you’re not particularly worried about the numbers (but that doesn’t sound like your situation)

 

[Dranth]

Thanks for the responses.

The last question is a flat out no. You cannot talk them down. Only disney cruises sometimes gives better deals. Calling won't do a thing. All that said both SSR and OKW are pretty good deals direct compared to others.

Sorry, but no. The price is the price.

Okay, good to know. I sat in on one meeting with them a while back and never got the full presentation or a chance to really talk with them because the lady got called out to deal with something and never came back. Later another sales person found us still in the room. I was pretty ed and told them I wanted to be dropped back at our resort and had no intention of listening to anything else they had to say right then and there. No yelling or anything, I was just done. A manager caught us on our way out of the main lobby at Kidani and gave us a bunch of anytime FP and a few hundred dollars in gift cards. I wasn't expecting that at all but it was certainly appreciated.

1 bedrooms and dates in the fall are generally the worst values vs cash

I noticed that, which is unfortunate given when we want to go though it does still beat out the standard rooms w/30% discount.

SSR, OKW 2057, and AKV remain the most likely to show a positive ROI.

I came down to the same three but OKW 2057 looks to be near impossible to find and the ability to get AKV at the 11 month mark generally outweighs the per point cost difference of SSR for us. Another issue with AKV however is that my wife might murder me if we don't have a savanna view which further drives up the cost.

Or because you have cash to blow and you’re not particularly worried about the numbers (but that doesn’t sound like your situation)

Money isn't really an issue but that can always change for anyone so I am generally cautious with larger purchases.

 

[striker1064]

First, due to the changes with resale, each new resort that comes online will now increase the number of people able to compete for the pool of rooms I would be eligible to use. This may not be a big deal now but could become one if they start churning out new resorts again in the coming years.

Others have given good advice, I thought I'd add something to this point. Remember that the 11 month window alleviates this. Future resorts will still have access to the older ones yes, but that only becomes crunch time at 7 months up to check-in. As long as you book when the 11 month window opens, this will never be a concern for you.

There are certain rooms/categories that book right at 11 months, and you must be online at 8 AM EST to even have a shot at those rooms. If you buy AKV, the only rooms in this category are the Jambo Values and Concierge. As long as you're not planning to book those regularly and merely count them as a bonus, you will very likely never have a problem getting what you want no matter how many future resorts Disney builds. As a former AKV owner, I can tell you at most times of the year, you can probably even wait until ~9 months out and still get a Savanna view. Oct-Dec is a little iffier on this at certain times (especially early Dec) because they are the most popular times of the year, but I'll stand by what I said previously - you'll likely never have an issue booking a Savanna view at 9-11 months, especially Kidani. Jambo is more popular and smaller, and as such books faster, though.

 

[Nottamus]

The wife and I did basically the same
Thing you are contemplating…we bought resale cash AKV in 2016, and really can’t be any happier with our choice.
We did a 220 point contract…and usually do a week in the spring , a week in the fall…and every other year the fall trip
Is two weeks.

I’ll second the advice of BUY WHERE YOU WANT TO STAY thing.
We book the values with success about 99.8% of the time at the 11 month window.
makes the points stretch further.

there are rooms sometimes available way later as well. 7 month window and sooner sometimes

 

[Run4DisneyFun]

We’ve been owners at SSR since 2004 and couldn’t be happier with the results. We bought 160 points at that time and in 2018 added on another 60 (both times from Disney), so we are at the same contract size you are considering. I agree with what others have said: we have never had a problem getting a room. Most of the time we book at SSR at the 11 month window and then switch to another resort at 7 mo.

Dues at AKL must be MUCH higher than SSR. My dues on 220 points are $1354.61 That is still quite a bit of change but nowhere near what you were quoted. Although dues have been going up the increase in room rates has been much, much higher.

Another thing to think of is the future resale value. We have been taking advantage of our points for 17 years and I could still, today, sell my first 160 points for more than I paid for them. That won’t always be true as the contract winds down…but to this point we have an asset which has appreciated in value while using it. That is a rare thing.

Last thing: when I bought I did an NPV calculation for the investment based upon many of the same assumptions you are making in terms of visits, time etc. at that time I calculated my NPV to be about 1.3x the investment. I’ve checked the calculation every few years since then (last time in 2018 when we added on). At that time we were on track with that calculation and even a little ahead. Prices have gone up (I paid the same amount for my 60 point add on as I did for my original 160 points), but I encourage you to do a similar calculation. Just make sure to account for growth in room prices as part of the calculation!

 

[nickys]

Dues at AKL must be MUCH higher than SSR. My dues on 220 points are $788.19. That is still quite a bit of change but nowhere near what you were quoted.

He quoted around $2000 for 250 points, that $8 per point.

Yours appear to be around $4 per point. That seems low, even after the rebate. SSR dues were just over $7 per point before the rebate, which would have been about $1540. Not sure why you paid half that.

 

[Run4DisneyFun]

He quoted around $2000 for 250 points, that $8 per point.

Yours appear to be around $4 per point. That seems low, even after the rebate. SSR dues were just over $7 per point before the rebate, which would have been about $1540. Not sure why you paid half that.

You’re right! I went back and looked at my statement..I was looking at what I had left to pay rather than what I had for the whole year. Sorry about that. I corrected the original post.

 

[Dranth]

Thanks everyone. We ended up jumping in. Offer was accepted and it is off to Disney for ROFR. Now the wait begins.