Disney's Streaming Services: Disney+ (and Hulu, ESPN+, Star, & hotstar)

[flynnibus]

Your analysis reads like cheerleading, not actually based on reasonable measurable statistic.

I do think we are seeing the inflection point on the horizon tho. The mega-consolidation of houses like Disney plus more and more studios/networks standing up their own services... hurts 'sourced content' services like Netflix. Netflix doing their own production isn't just about 'cheaper' sources.. its about sources period... as they their input feeds get chopped down as competitors emerge and exclusivity ramps up.

I don't think companies like Netflix have any real customer loyalty. They have a brand now... but customers are going to flock to where the content they want is. And the trend of exclusivity is growing... not retreating. Companies like Netflix are not becoming clearning houses for all content... they are instead scrambling to try to be independent and able to stand on their own.

Players with big enough sticks like Disney... really are a huge threat to the idea of Netflix as a cableTV replacement.

 

[seascape]

Again, there’s a lot of ridiculousness and misinformation is this pile. I’ll unpack this one-by-one.

Firstly, the article was published on October 17, 2019, so their Disney+ projections for this year are largely irrelevant. They put the number in there as a placeholder, which should have been exceedingly obvious. Disney didn’t start providing estimates until just before November, so it would have been irresponsible analysis if they did put in a realistic number in mid October.

Secondly, you largely missed the point of why I provided that link in the first place. I didn’t share it to downplay Disney+ success; I did it to dispel your crazy notion that Disney+ will not only topple Netflix, but maybe even shoot it down to third place in the streaming wars. No reasonable projection believes that will happen at all. Only the overly confident and somewhat blinded Disney stakeholders.

Finally, yes, I will continue to use that article as a basis because Statista is a reliable resource, and you negating it because the website, wisely, used a conservative placeholder number instead of a higher total based on then incomplete projection estimates is very disingenuous.



Your estimate isn’t conservative at all. It‘s as aggressive as it can possibly be.

Disney Says Disney Plus Has Over 10 Million Sign-Ups After Launch Day

Touting "extraordinary demand," Disney announced that Disney Plus had signed up over 10 million users since launching early on Nov. 12.

variety.com

Your “conservative“ projection has Disney+ beating Disney’s own internal projections by three years. Your analysis is way off.

And to take my post full circle, and bring this back to my initial point of dispelling the Netflix will fall. Netflix current has about 160 million estimated subscribers, and are expected to hold the lead with over 200 million in 5 years.

How Quickly Will Disney+ Catch Up to Netflix?

Subscriber projections for Disney+ are all over the map.

observer.com

In short, Netflix isn't Falling to Disney anytime soon, let alone third place.

Your analysis reads like cheerleading, not actually based on reasonable measurable statistic.

Well, Hotstar is the Disney Plus distributor in India. They currently have 300 milliin subscribers. I am sure less than half will add the Disney Plus option but even if they get 20% that would be 60 million. Now, I know you will say they will pay less than consumers here do, but that is true for Netflix too, prices are different in each country.

 

[Tony Perkis]

Well, Hotstar is the Disney Plus distributor in India. They currently have 300 milliin subscribers. I am sure less than half will add the Disney Plus option but even if they get 20% that would be 60 million. Now, I know you will say they will pay less than consumers here do, but that is true for Netflix too, prices are different in each country.

I’m going strictly by projections by the analysts within Disney. I trust their assessment much more than your 3 year accelerated timeline.

Additionally, I’ve made no mention of pricing, and have no ambition to do so, because I’m 100% convinced Disney will raise its prices to the $10 or higher magic number after 3 years once they have an established base.

 

[Ripken10]

I love that story. It says Disney plus will only have 1 million customers this year and only get to 25 milliom subscribers by the end of 2024. They hit that number on the mark didn't they. I know that Disney Plus will not sign up 5 million people a day, but they are substantially over 10 million customers in just over 72 hours and will likely pass 15 million soon. So do you really want to use that article as the basis?

Disney used an extremely conservative estimate to make sure they would crush it. I and others have said that when Disney announced that insanely low number. I will stick with my conservative 90 million worldwide number by the end of 2021. I know they will beat it but I am also conservative in my estimates but more realistic that Disney's original estimates.

Just thinking out loud...I wonder how much of a jump we might expect right before the first Marvel show begins. No question there will be a jump, but how much.

 

[Tony Perkis]

I do think we are seeing the inflection point on the horizon tho. The mega-consolidation of houses like Disney plus more and more studios/networks standing up their own services... hurts 'sourced content' services like Netflix. Netflix doing their own production isn't just about 'cheaper' sources.. its about sources period... as they their input feeds get chopped down as competitors emerge and exclusivity ramps up.

I’ve never once made the claim that Netflix wouldn’t be affected by Disney+. They absolutely will be hampered, to an extent. I do believe the low price point for Disney+ additionally gives people more of an ability to say “I don’t need to choose one or the other”, and Netflix still has the some of the highest watched shows that you won’t see a mass exodus.

I don't think companies like Netflix have any real customer loyalty.

I disagree with this, because I think their brand loyalty model is similar to that of HBO, being that since they continue release new quality programming, they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt.

They have a brand now... but customers are going to flock to where the content they want is. And the trend of exclusivity is growing... not retreating.

I mean, that’s true and all, but over time, exclusive new content is going to be what drives new subscribers the most. I know Disney has the Marvel and Star Wars stuff coming, as well as stuff aimed for much younger viewers, but this is actually where I think Disney+ has the biggest uphill battle. Their major influx of new subscribers is primarily driven by nostalgia, and it will be for the first year or so, but that isn’t a strong enough metric to use for sustainable growth.

Due to the very narrow focus of appropriateness allowed, they do limit a few major demographics from getting exactly what they want. This is where Netflix and Prime thrive and have the clear advantage, and why I think it’s an unreasonable prediction to assume the former will fall from grace, and laughably in third place in the streaming wars.

Companies like Netflix are not becoming clearning houses for all content... they are instead scrambling to try to be independent and able to stand on their own.

And that’s not necessarily a bad thing, since they’re continually moving into new markets. You don’t think them standing on their own as an art house cinema hub and a potential awards darling into helping them? It absolutely is.

Again, as I mentioned in a previous post, I am not posting any of this to put down Disney+. I think it’s a slam dunk as a service and will have great success. It’s thinking that it will topple Netflix within 5 years and thinking it will outperform Disney’s own expectations 3 years early is absolutely ridiculous notion, that it is essentially cheerleading.

Players with big enough sticks like Disney... really are a huge threat to the idea of Netflix as a cableTV replacement.

I don’t believe Netflix was ever a viable cable replacement; live television is too important to too many people for that, and the streaming cable market is so scattered that it really isn’t a game changer for Hulu either.

 

[Elizabeth Swann]

I don't see the original Mickey Mouse Club anywhere on Disney+. Is this another US-only thing?

I found it by clicking on search then clicking on the Disney Through the Decades collection. The first 5 episodes of The Mickey Mouse are in the 50's.

 

[Tony Perkis]

Just thinking out loud...I wonder how much of a jump we might expect right before the first Marvel show begins. No question there will be a jump, but how much.

I really don’t think any Marvel show is going to cause a major hike in subscribers.

Now, the Ewan McGregor Star Wars Obi Wan spin-off? Very different story.

 

[flynnibus]

I’ve never once made the claim that Netflix wouldn’t be affected by Disney+. They absolutely will be hampered, to an extent. I do believe the low price point for Disney+ additionally gives people more of an ability to say “I don’t need to choose one or the other”, and Netflix still has the some of the highest watched shows that you won’t see a mass exodus.

Yeah I wasn't countering you.. as much as making my own statement. I think they will start declining... and not just due to a new peer, but because the idea of a 'goto' place for streaming is (In my belief) being chopped up as everyone wants to keep their goods to themselves.

I don't think customers really want to subscribe to 6 different streaming services... but that's what they keep pushing the industry to do when they whine about 'bundling' and the like that was done on cable.

I disagree with this, because I think their brand loyalty model is similar to that of HBO, being that since they continue release new quality programming, they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt.

I think they have credibility.. for sure. But I mean loyalty as in... willing to pay just to have it when alternatives chip away at their main interest. People talk all the time about turning their subscription on and off based on near-term interests. Vs paying all the time because they just like having it.

I mean, that’s true and all, but over time, exclusive new content is going to be what drives new subscribers the most. I know Disney has the Marvel and Star Wars stuff coming, as well as stuff aimed for much younger viewers, but this is actually where I think Disney+ has the biggest uphill battle. Their major influx of new subscribers is primarily driven by nostalgia, and it will be for the first year or so, but that isn’t a strong enough metric to use for sustainable growth.

I agree in principle... I just think the Disney pipeline is already so big across the different properties it has. Even without D+ exclusive content it's pumping out dozens of movies, new TV shows, across multiple platforms today. When they hunker down and concentrate all that into a single, dual, or tri consumption service like D+... its gotta look like a firehose.

Due to the very narrow focus of appropriateness allowed, they do limit a few major demographics from getting exactly what they want. This is where Netflix and Prime thrive and have the clear advantage, and why I think it’s an unreasonable prediction to assume the former will fall from grace, and laughably in third place in the streaming wars.

I think Prime is an interesting example that shows how integration is the key... Amazon surely will leverage it's sales channel as a way to have access to content for streaming. I don't think Prime would really be booming if it weren't for the bundling by Amazon.

I don’t believe Netflix was ever a viable cable replacement; live television is too important to too many people for that, and the streaming cable market is so scattered that it really isn’t a game changer for Hulu either.

But those niches are getting their own carriers now.. even the biggest hold-outs like the NFL are streaming now. I think the 5 year future is head-ends that can consume from multiple sources... and less about services that can serve the full library people are interested in.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I found it by clicking on search then clicking on the Disney Through the Decades collection. The first 5 episodes of The Mickey Mouse are in the 50's.

Tried this and nothing's there.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

FYI if you go to the Help Centre and click on "give feedback" you can request up to three shows/movies at a time.

 

[Tony Perkis]

Yeah I wasn't countering you.. as much as making my own statement. I think they will start declining... and not just due to a new peer, but because the idea of a 'goto' place for streaming is (In my belief) being chopped up as everyone wants to keep their goods to themselves.

I don’t believe they will lose subscribers collectively. I do believe they will increase their subscriber at a slower pace due to more options, which is largely supported by analysts within the industry.

I don’t see a true year-to-year drop for another decade (quarterly drops, maybe, but that’s too small a sample size to determine trends), because while the pie is split, there is still a significant portion of the world, and the United States, that are just now getting true high speed internet and can actually utilize these services. We’re still in the process of the industry expanding, but the individual services will expand at a slower clip.

I don't think customers really want to subscribe to 6 different streaming services... but that's what they keep pushing the industry to do when they whine about 'bundling' and the like that was done on cable.

Yep, and now we’re back to the same pricing as cable on top of cable.

I think they have credibility.. for sure. But I mean loyalty as in... willing to pay just to have it when alternatives chip away at their main interest. People talk all the time about turning their subscription on and off based on near-term interests. Vs paying all the time because they just like having it.

Maybe I’m just loyal to the brand, considering the content they’ve pumped out that I love.

I agree in principle... I just think the Disney pipeline is already so big across the different properties it has. Even without D+ exclusive content it's pumping out dozens of movies, new TV shows, across multiple platforms today. When they hunker down and concentrate all that into a single, dual, or tri consumption service like D+... its gotta look like a firehose.

A big question remains about their plans for original content on Hulu. I’m happy I can watch Always Sunny and AHS on Hulu, but I can ditch the service and use the FX Now app if I had to.

I think Prime is an interesting example that shows how integration is the key... Amazon surely will leverage it's sales channel as a way to have access to content for streaming. I don't think Prime would really be booming if it weren't for the bundling by Amazon.

Agree completely. But they’re a very unique example and a bit of an exception to the rule. If Prime Video was a $5 add-on to the shipping service, I don’t think it’d be nearly as successful.

But those niches are getting their own carriers now.. even the biggest hold-outs like the NFL are streaming now. I think the 5 year future is head-ends that can consume from multiple sources... and less about services that can serve the full library people are interested in.

Agree in general, but it does get more complicated than that. The NFL isn’t streaming; Fox, CBS, Amazon, NBC, and ESPN are streaming the NFL, unless you have the $200 Sunday ticket package. The MLB streams all out-of-market games for $150 a year, but if you want to watch your team, you’ll need a combination of ESPN and Fox Regional (which Disney doesn’t own), which is only available in market and on cable.

In short, there is no all-encompassing solution, not even by Disney.

 

[flynnibus]

The NFL isn’t streaming; Fox, CBS, Amazon, NBC, and ESPN are streaming the NFL

What i mean is they are allowing games to be streamed... which they had been really restrictive and cautious about... letting the verizon mobile deal basically lock everything else out. Only in the last two years have they been expanding the players they’ve allowed to be involved. I used them as an example of the “live sports” that historically been one of the biggest blocker for people to completely give up broadcast. And very quickly, after a long hold out, the dam is washing away...

 

[seascape]

I don’t believe they will lose subscribers collectively. I do believe they will increase their subscriber at a slower pace due to more options, which is largely supported by analysts within the industry.

I don’t see a true year-to-year drop for another decade (quarterly drops, maybe, but that’s too small a sample size to determine trends), because while the pie is split, there is still a significant portion of the world, and the United States, that are just now getting true high speed internet and can actually utilize these services. We’re still in the process of the industry expanding, but the individual services will expand at a slower clip.



Yep, and now we’re back to the same pricing as cable on top of cable.



Maybe I’m just loyal to the brand, considering the content they’ve pumped out that I love.



A big question remains about their plans for original content on Hulu. I’m happy I can watch Always Sunny and AHS on Hulu, but I can ditch the service and use the FX Now app if I had to.



Agree completely. But they’re a very unique example and a bit of an exception to the rule. If Prime Video was a $5 add-on to the shipping service, I don’t think it’d be nearly as successful.



Agree in general, but it does get more complicated than that. The NFL isn’t streaming; Fox, CBS, Amazon, NBC, and ESPN are streaming the NFL, unless you have the $200 Sunday ticket package. The MLB streams all out-of-market games for $150 a year, but if you want to watch your team, you’ll need a combination of ESPN and Fox Regional (which Disney doesn’t own), which is only available in market and on cable.

In short, there is no all-encompassing solution, not even by Disney.

Do you know that 80% of Netflix streaming hours are watching licensed materials they are likely to lose. Friends and the Office are the top shows and they won't be on too much longer. Do you really believe Netflix is worth $13.00 a month just to watch the shows Netflix produces?

 

[mikejs78]

I’m going strictly by projections by the analysts within Disney. I trust their assessment much more than your 3 year accelerated timeline.

Additionally, I’ve made no mention of pricing, and have no ambition to do so, because I’m 100% convinced Disney will raise its prices to the $10 or higher magic number after 3 years once they have an established base.

Having been involved with analyst reports before, they tend to be wildly inaccurate more than a year or two out. It is impossible to really get a handle on all the variables that can/will affect this industry over the next 5 years. The industry is in a massive state of flux and it's impossible to predict what will happen in the next 5 years.

I will say that Netflix has some structural issues that may cause it to decline, or even implode in the next few years:

• Their debt - structurally, Netflix has a debt problem, which could start causing them to hemmorage money if they don't continue to get rapid growth. Slower growth won't be enough to manage the debt they have.
• Loss of content library:. Most of their popular content is going to be leaving over the next few years to go to other streaming services.
• Decline in quality content: Netflix is getting a reputation for releasing a ton of mediocre to bad content, with a handful of jewels sprinkled in. Sure, they have some great shows, but when you consider the ratio of great shows to just plain bad shows, it is very lopsided.
• Cancellation problem:. This one has been brought up to me a few times by friends - they invest in a show and it gets cancelled without the story being resolved. What good is a huge library of shows if they end up being half finished?
• Price:. Netflix is among the most expensive services. As more and more streaming services are released, people are going to be a lot more selective with their $$. And if you can get the Disney bundle (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN) for the same cost of a Netflix Standard Subscription, I think a lot of people who only can afford one or only want one may choose the bundle.

I for one am going to be cancelling my Netflix subscription. I may subscribe for a month here or there if there's a show that drops that I want to watch, but see no reason to keep it continuously at this point. If I do that, I'll end up with D+, Hulu, Prime, and CBS. That's a great package for me and my family.

So is Netflix's decline inevitable? No. But there are a lot of structural problems that could lead to a decline as the choices in streaming start to multiply.

I can ditch the service and use the FX Now app if I had to

Well, I think the FX Now app will go away once the content is on Hulu.

 

[mikejs78]

I really don’t think any Marvel show is going to cause a major hike in subscribers.

Now, the Ewan McGregor Star Wars Obi Wan spin-off? Very different story.

Marvel is Disney's biggest franchise - yes, even bigger than Star Wars. If you don't think the Marvel shows will move the needle, you're crazy.

 

[Tony Perkis]

Do you know that 80% of Netflix streaming hours are watching licensed materials they are likely to lose. Friends and the Office are the top shows and they won't be on too much longer. Do you really believe Netflix is worth $13.00 a month just to watch the shows Netflix produces?

Thank you for educating on the incredibly obvious fact that Netflix signs licensing deals with other companies. I didn’t notice when I was watching Cheers.

To answer your question, yes, I do think Netflix is worth that for their exclusive content. Of currently airing shows, I watch:

-Stranger Things
-Bojack Horseman
-Altered Carbon
-The Crown
-Lost in Space
-Living with Yourself
-Mindhunter
-Making a Murderer
-Big Mouth
-Disenchantment
-Schitt’s Creek
-The Dark Crystal
-The Toys that Made Us
-Black Mirror
-GLOW
-Mystery Science Theatre 3000
-Narcos
-Peaky Blinders
-Master of None
-Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee
-Russian Doll

This doesn’t include past successes I watched and liked, including:

-Orange is the New Black
-House of Cards
-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
-Arrested Development
-American Vandal
-Lemony Snickett’s A Series of Unfortunate Events
-Daredevil
-Santa Clarita Diet
-Maniac
-Godless
-The Punisher
-Grace and Frankie
-Jessica Jones
-Bloodline

And I’m not even going to mention further the countless number of standup comedy material, far and away the best collection available from any service, or the quality films they’ve made in the past 2 years.

 

[Tony Perkis]

Marvel is Disney's biggest franchise - yes, even bigger than Star Wars. If you don't think the Marvel shows will move the needle, you're crazy.

Never once did I say they wouldn’t move the needle. I said they wouldn’t cause a major spike in subscribers all of a sudden.

 

[seascape]

Thank you for educating on the incredibly obvious fact that Netflix signs licensing deals with other companies. I didn’t notice when I was watching Cheers.

To answer your question, yes, I do think Netflix is worth that for their exclusive content. Of currently airing shows, I watch:

-Stranger Things
-Bojack Horseman
-Altered Carbon
-The Crown
-Lost in Space
-Living with Yourself
-Mindhunter
-Making a Murderer
-Big Mouth
-Disenchantment
-Schitt’s Creek
-The Dark Crystal
-The Toys that Made Us
-Black Mirror
-GLOW
-Mystery Science Theatre 3000
-Narcos
-Peaky Blinders
-Master of None
-Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee
-Russian Doll

This doesn’t include past successes I watched and liked, including:

-Orange is the New Black
-House of Cards
-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
-Arrested Development
-American Vandal
-Lemony Snickett’s A Series of Unfortunate Events
-Daredevil
-Santa Clarita Diet
-Maniac
-Godless
-The Punisher
-Grace and Frankie
-Jessica Jones
-Bloodline

And I’m not even going to mention further the countless number of standup comedy material, far and away the best collection available from any service, or the quality films they’ve made in the past 2 years.

I am glad you think just the Netflix originals are worth $13.00 a month. That is what make Capitalism the best economic system in the world. I and others do not. I am extremely upset that Netflix refused to renew the Marvel series you liked and watched, so did I, and as a result I dropped them.

We can agree or disagree as to the value of Netflix. The one thing neither one of us know for sure is how many subscribers and subscription different services will have in 2025. Time will tell which of us was right and which one is wrong. Anyway, going back to the numbers you provided, Hulu is projected to have 41 million subscribers in the US in 2025 but Disney Plus only 25 million. That is interesting since almost all the discussions in the media, and on social media is about Disney Plus and Netflix not Hulu.

 

[Tony Perkis]

I am glad you think just the Netflix originals are worth $13.00 a month. That is what make Capitalism the best economic system in the world. I and others do not. I am extremely upset that Netflix refused to renew the Marvel series you liked and watched, so did I, and as a result I dropped them.

We can agree or disagree as to the value of Netflix. The one thing neither one of us know for sure is how many subscribers and subscription different services will have in 2025. Time will tell which of us was right and which one is wrong. Anyway, going back to the numbers you provided, Hulu is projected to have 41 million subscribers in the US in 2025 but Disney Plus only 25 million. That is interesting since almost all the discussions in the media, and on social media is about Disney Plus and Netflix not Hulu.

My and your opinion of the value of Netflix is irrelevant to what was my initial point, which was your ludicrous prediction of Disney+ toppling Netflix within 3-5 years. There’s no basis in reality that projects that.

It’s unrealistic, and certainly not a conservative prediction.

 

[seascape]

My and your opinion of the value of Netflix is irrelevant to what was my initial point, which was your ludicrous prediction of Disney+ toppling Netflix within 3-5 years. There’s no basis in reality that projects that.

It’s unrealistic, and certainly not a conservative prediction.

CNBC is reporting someone big is going after Netflix. The insinuation is its Icahn or Ackman. I hope they are wrong. I may not like everything Netflix has done but they have been well run by Reed Hadtings. If anyone were to buy them and let them grow as you would like. it's Apple. Either Icahn or Ackmam would be horrible.