Disney's Slow Death?

[AVeryDifferentDisneyDad]

With the return of Bob, the lower park attendance numbers, the massive loses of Disney +, the repeated flops at the box office (even the Marvels franchise?!?), and the political backlash from the previous Field General's clumsy effort at supporting inclusion.... are we, in fact, witnessing the death of our beloved Disney?

I raised 3 children on Disney since 1998. Cried with them in theaters, smiled so hard my face hurt while watching them walk down Main Street staring at the castle, and listened on knees by their bed sides as they literally prayed for another trip to Disney World.

And yet, none of them (19, 21 and 25, now) have any love or desire to go see a movie ("Wish" was flatly discarded during Thanksgiving discussions), visit the parks, or stay in one of the resorts sans parks across the US.

What can be done? Or can it even be saved? Has Disney "run it's course" or simply gotten too big? Was the tit-for-tat with Ron a tipping point?

I was in the middle of the Southern Baptist Convention's damnation of Disney Co. but truly never saw much of an economic impact at the box office, park attendance or merchandise sales.

If it were JUST the parks, basic economics would say you priced yourself out of middle America. But, folks, we all know that nearly every aspect is failing - some in near complete free fall. So, what gives?

Can it be saved? Or are we watching the death of Disney, right before our astonished eyes?

 

[MisterPenguin]

With the return of Bob, the lower park attendance numbers, the massive loses of Disney +, the repeated flops at the box office (even the Marvels franchise?!?), and the political backlash from the previous Field General's clumsy effort at supporting inclusion.... are we, in fact, witnessing the death of our beloved Disney?

I raised 3 children on Disney since 1998. Cried with them in theaters, smiled so hard my face hurt while watching them walk down Main Street staring at the castle, and listened on knees by their bed sides as they literally prayed for another trip to Disney World.

And yet, none of them (19, 21 and 25, now) have any love or desire to go see a movie ("Wish" was flatly discarded during Thanksgiving discussions), visit the parks, or stay in one of the resorts sans parks across the US.

What can be done? Or can it even be saved? Has Disney "run it's course" or simply gotten too big? Was the tit-for-tat with Ron a tipping point?

I was in the middle of the Southern Baptist Convention's damnation of Disney Co. but truly never saw much of an economic impact at the box office, park attendance or merchandise sales.

If it were JUST the parks, basic economics would say you priced yourself out of middle America. But, folks, we all know that nearly every aspect is failing - some in near complete free fall. So, what gives?

Can it be saved? Or are we watching the death of Disney, right before our astonished eyes?

Cruise Lines are printing money.

All the parks except WDW showed increased revenue. WDW is still bringing in the big bucks, tho, because the lower crowds remaining are paying more.

Disney still profits billions of dollars per quarter. Disney has access to $14B in 'cash.'

Most of Disney films still eventually make a profit eventually, just not in the theatrical run. And some were indeed profitable in the theaters.

Disney's streaming is still on track to be profitable in 2024... just like the original guidance given four years ago.

Disney's stock did hit a low of $79 last month, but it's up to $96 now.

Disney will be able to afford Comcast's buyout of Hulu. That will increase the profit margin of streaming. And make the more integrated bundle more attractive to customers.

Disney has a plan in place to move from the profitable (but increasingly less profitable) linear channels to streaming. But the transition isn't easy. But it is inevitable. Cable is rapidly dying.

While there's one activist investor who wants to shake things up (i.e., sell off stuff to get dividends); there's another activist investor who's on board with the Board.

 

[AndyS2992]

I'm sure they'll turn themselves around eventually but seems the company doesn't know what it's doing. Poor leadership, no clear vision for the future, it doesn't seem to understand the market it's targeting, they're too busy pandering to the 'woke' crowd and ticking boxes rather than creating good and engaging stories. Around the World they've shut down all the physical Disney Stores, closed the Disney Channels in most countries, shut down their video game department amongst other cuts. Merchandise is over priced and poor quality and lacking in choice. All the park additions are on the cheap and single IP lands that are uninspired and will bite them on the backside when those IPs lose popularity. They oversaturated the Star Wars brand and drove it in to the ground.. The Florida political backlash has caused damage, Disney and politics don't mix, I could go on.

 

[Disstevefan1]

With the return of Bob, the lower park attendance numbers, the massive loses of Disney +, the repeated flops at the box office (even the Marvels franchise?!?), and the political backlash from the previous Field General's clumsy effort at supporting inclusion.... are we, in fact, witnessing the death of our beloved Disney?

I raised 3 children on Disney since 1998. Cried with them in theaters, smiled so hard my face hurt while watching them walk down Main Street staring at the castle, and listened on knees by their bed sides as they literally prayed for another trip to Disney World.

And yet, none of them (19, 21 and 25, now) have any love or desire to go see a movie ("Wish" was flatly discarded during Thanksgiving discussions), visit the parks, or stay in one of the resorts sans parks across the US.

What can be done? Or can it even be saved? Has Disney "run it's course" or simply gotten too big? Was the tit-for-tat with Ron a tipping point?

I was in the middle of the Southern Baptist Convention's damnation of Disney Co. but truly never saw much of an economic impact at the box office, park attendance or merchandise sales.

If it were JUST the parks, basic economics would say you priced yourself out of middle America. But, folks, we all know that nearly every aspect is failing - some in near complete free fall. So, what gives?

Can it be saved? Or are we watching the death of Disney, right before our astonished eyes?

TWDC will survive. There are too many institutional investors that NEED the stock to be stable.

In my opinion Disney is in a perfect storm right now.
In my opinion the factors are:
The pandemic taught folks they could live without going to theater.
The pandemic taught folks they could live without going to the parks.
The streaming wars taught folks they didn't need to go to theater if they could wait a little.
TWDC's huge effort to try to grow their streaming business.
Starting in 2018, Iger forced the change to make diversity and inclusion the forefront. This is a good change, it just needed to be done the right way at the right pace.
TWDC's fight with the state of Florida

Money losing movies is nothing new to this or any company. It always happened its just super amplified by social media.

In my opinion NONE of these things by themselves would cause problems for TWDC, in my opinion its the combination of all the factors together is the cause of the current problems.

This too shall pass. TWDC will survive.

 

[John park hopper]

Disney has made a big mistake not keeping their mouth shut on social and political issues. They have alienated a lot of their base. This along with what others have posted has contributed to Disney's current problems. IMO the upper level management needs to be swept away.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Disney has made a big mistake not keeping their mouth shut on social and political issues. They have alienated a lot of their base. This along with what others have posted has contributed to Disney's current problems. IMO the upper level management needs to be swept away.

Totally agree. TWDC disagreed with a law in Florida. THATS FINE.

If TWDC really cared, they would have SHUT UP and used their awesome POWER behind the scenes to GET THE LAW CHANGED and they would have succeeded in the long run.

 

[Surferboy567]

Disney has made a big mistake not keeping their mouth shut on social and political issues. They have alienated a lot of their base. This along with what others have posted has contributed to Disney's current problems. IMO the upper level management needs to be swept away.

The only issue with this is that I’m worried if you do sweep away the upper management. Whoever they get to succeed them will be much worse. Maybe that’s just me thinking it but that’s a serious possibility.

 

[el_super]

They will be fine.

 

[Disstevefan1]

They will be fine.

Agreed. There are too many institutional investors depending on TWDC.

Too big to fail.

 

[SaucyBoy]

How many exaggerated threads about Disney's impending death do we need? The Company will rebound like they have many times before. And they'll be fine without the crowd who cries "woke" every time Disney does something they don't like.

 

[FutureCEO]

Iger does need to go though. Well, everyone in charge really. It's clear Disney doesn't care anymore about anything. Including bulling other companies and fans when they don't like something. Cough, BBC, cough.

 

[MisterPenguin]

This drumbeat that Disney's about to collapse is from social media with nerdragers eschewing facts and rationality to make every bump a sinkhole of disaster.

Just because there's a hundred of them all repeating eachother's talking points, doesn't mean they're right. And they're all in competition with one another to come up with the most hair-on-fire clickbait to support their hate-habit. Which only makes them more and more extreme.

Duster that I am, I am able to point out many of Disney's faults. One can be nuanced. One can generally be disillusioned by Disney but still recognize good things they do. It's a false dichotomy you have to be all in or all out. And the ones who are all out are the ones claiming Disney is in decline and will soon collapse.

Anyhoo, about 20 years ago, there was a nerdrager who created a website to document the day by day news that shows Disney is about to collapse within a year.

And here we are. And that website is gone.

 

[Disstevefan1]

TWDC and its theme parks are........ Invincible.

Ahhh, things are finally getting back to normal

 

[Disstevefan1]

The stock is even on sort of a rebound for all those institutional investors:

 

[WoundedDreamer]

I think the question is not whether Disney will go bankrupt in the immediate future. The question is whether The Walt Disney Company will survive in its current form. That is more unclear. Investors have been giving a Bob Iger a lot of freedom and leeway because they trust him. If investors, analysts, and media figures like a CEO, that CEO can sustain terrible losses for an extended period of time before facing calls for ouster. But that clock is ticking.

Investors are likely tantalized by the possibility of several IP films in the pipeline. Mufasa (based on the insanely popular Lion King adaption), Frozen 3, Frozen 4, Inside Out 2, Moana live action are all coming. Everyone kind of knew that 2023 was going to be an awful year for Disney theatrical releases. Disney knew Indiana Jones was going to bomb (which it did in spectacular fashion). Disney knew Captain Marvel was going to bomb (why they delayed it multiple times and reshot scenes). Elemental was only a success in that everyone thought it was going to bomb and then sort of didn't. It was still bad, but it could have been worse.

2024 is when Iger and Disney are going to face their real test. That's the point when we'll see whether Iger is really is in danger. What's happening in 2024?
1) Inside Out 2- Based on a big franchise. Should be a hit.
2) Deadpool 3- The Deadpool franchise has been a hit with audiences. To stack the deck, they're also bringing Hugh Jackman into the mix to reprise his role as Wolverine.
3) Mufasa- Based on a big franchise. Should be a hit.
4) 20th Century also has some franchise films in the works for 2024 (Apes and Aliens). Should be successful
5) Disney Plus should hit profitability.
6) ESPN should announce its partner and give information on the future of its business

Next year is the year that Iger and his team have been promising. The great Iger turnaround will be complete! Or at least that's the goal. If any one of those projects fails or fail to satisfy investors, Iger will find himself in a very precarious place. There's a reason Snow White and Elio have been pushed to 2025. They are two probable bombs. 2024 needs to be the year that sentiment changes. Iger is a showman (or at least prides himself as one), and nothing can ruin his 2024. It has to be perfect. If movies bomb, Disney+ sputters, or the partnership doesn't materialize or is not well-received by investors, Iger will face his most difficult challenge yet. An angry investor community...

 

[Disstevefan1]

I think the question is not whether Disney will go bankrupt in the immediate future. The question is whether The Walt Disney Company will survive in its current form. That is more unclear. Investors have been giving a Bob Iger a lot of freedom and leeway because they trust him. If investors, analysts, and media figures like a CEO, that CEO can sustain terrible losses for an extended period of time before facing calls for ouster. But that clock is ticking.

Investors are likely tantalized by the possibility of several IP films in the pipeline. Mufasa (based on the insanely popular Lion King adaption), Frozen 3, Frozen 4, Inside Out 2, Moana live action are all coming. Everyone kind of knew that 2023 was going to be an awful year for Disney theatrical releases. Disney knew Indiana Jones was going to bomb (which it did in spectacular fashion). Disney knew Captain Marvel was going to bomb (why they delayed it multiple times and reshot scenes). Elemental was only a success in that everyone thought it was going to bomb and then sort of didn't. It was still bad, but it could have been worse.

2024 is when Iger and Disney are going to face their real test. That's the point when we'll see whether Iger is really is in danger. What's happening in 2024?
1) Inside Out 2- Based on a big franchise. Should be a hit.
2) Deadpool 3- The Deadpool franchise has been a hit with audiences. To stack the deck, they're also bringing Hugh Jackman into the mix to reprise his role as Wolverine.
3) Mufasa- Based on a big franchise. Should be a hit.
4) 20th Century also has some franchise films in the works for 2024 (Apes and Aliens). Should be successful
5) Disney Plus should hit profitability.
6) ESPN should announce its partner and give information on the future of its business

Next year is the year that Iger and his team have been promising. The great Iger turnaround will be complete! Or at least that's the goal. If any one of those projects fails or fail to satisfy investors, Iger will find himself in a very precarious place. There's a reason Snow White and Elio have been pushed to 2025. They are two probable bombs. 2024 needs to be the year that sentiment changes. Iger is a showman (or at least prides himself as one), and nothing can ruin his 2024. It has to be perfect. If movies bomb, Disney+ sputters, or the partnership doesn't materialize or is not well-received by investors, Iger will face his most difficult challenge yet. An angry investor community...

Question: Will TWDC survive?

Answer: TWDC will survive in whatever form it needs be in to survive.

 

[TsWade2]

I'm sorry, but didn't I made a thread about saying it's the end of Disney one time? I can't believe someone say that! Yikes!

Anyway, to answer your question, no Disney is not going to be shut down. Yes, they're having some problems right now, but they'll get better eventually. Don't worry! And just to let you know that, I always said it's the end of Disney, because I'm worried for Disney. And I need to stop saying that.

 

[networkpro]

No I don't see DIS going down. That said, I do see lawsuits on the horizon from shareholders about company officers not doing thier fiduciary obligations in budgeting, cost containment, and revenue generation.

 

[Dead2009]

Yay, more doom and gloom! Cant wait for that thread about a hostile takeover to resurface again.

 

[MisterPenguin]

No I don't see DIS going down. That said, I do see lawsuits on the horizon from shareholders about company officers not doing thier fiduciary obligations in budgeting, cost containment, and revenue generation.

Unless there was malfeasance or astoundingly gross negligence, those lawsuits regularly get dismissed. Especially when the plaintiffs have to show evidence worthy of starting the suit. They can't just make up stuff and go on a fishing expedition through discovery.

And not agreeing with the board's/CEO's decisiouns is not astoundingly gross negligence. And not being successful is not astoundingly gross negligence. People running companies can make decisions that wind up not working out. It happens all the time. Plenty of companies go broke and out of business without a shareholder lawsuit.