Disney's FY20 Q3 Earnings (8/4/20)

[Dan Deesnee]

I didn't think their stock would tank. The bad news was already priced into the stock. The stock shouldn't have tanked and it shouldn't have surged liked it did. And the funny thing is you admit it shouldn't have surged like it did at the end of your post.

Not sure where I admitted it shouldn't have surged? Saying it will go down due to the surge is not saying it shouldn't have surged in the first place. I gave a few reasons why it might have gone up big, it will likely drop because it is becoming over bought, etc. etc.

 

[Chef Mickey]

The worst is not over. Cases are still rising in many places and deaths in Florida keep rising. People aren't traveling right now or going to theme parks. You keep living in your rose colored glasses world.

Financially speaking, the worst is over. We are talking about business here. No one cares about cases anymore except agenda pushing media and clickbait news.

I‘m living in reality. Look what markets are telling you. They agree.

It‘s like some of you guys would be happier if the economy crumbles.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Disney is in far worse position looking forward than they were a year ago bro. They have added almost $30 billion in debt to their books in the past 12 months. That is in addition to the debt they added when they bought Fox.

I don’t think Disney is going to have to go out of business or sell assets. It is just today’s surge doesn’t make sense. A big drop wouldn’t have made sense either.

Did they get anything for a Fox besides debt? Lol, you make it sound like it was just a negative. If it doesn’t make sense, short it. They have over $20B in cash too and are cash flow positive. Don’t talk to me about their balance sheet likes it’s an issue. It’s not, reaffirmed by the CFO yesterday.

Disney wasn’t a high flying stock even at its all time high. It’s been likely undervalued for years. Netflix isn’t worth as much as Disney, but it is today. Either Netflix is overvalued or Disney is under. One makes less than $2B annually and the other makes over $12B annually.

Again, market affirms my position. They liked the quarter because it was better than feared and objectively will be the worst Disney has based on what we know today. Operations have restarted. It’s a road to recovery, but nothing is worse than no operations April-Jun.

 

[marni1971]

Financially speaking, the worst is over. We are talking about business here. No one cares about cases anymore except agenda pushing media and clickbait news..

Except those who's friends and relatives continue to die.

Would a second spike be fantasy too?

 

[WDW Pro]

Except those who's friends and relatives continue to die.

Would a second spike be fantasy too?

The unfortunate thing is we're seeing second and third waves all over the world seemingly regardless of precautions taken. Luckily we're smarter now about how to treat the disease, but I really fear flu season and the issues that will bring. Literally everyone should get a flu shot this year if at all possible.

 

[marni1971]

The unfortunate thing is we're seeing second and third waves all over the world seemingly regardless of precautions taken. Luckily we're smarter now about how to treat the disease, but I really fear flu season and the issues that will bring. Literally everyone should get a flu shot this year if at all possible.

What we’re seeing now is to be expected sadly. Pray we don’t get a real second spike.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Except those who's friends and relatives continue to die.

Would a second spike be fantasy too?

My grandfather died of preventable pneumonia, but old people certainly are higher risk. This isn’t the only or biggest threat to public health and many things can kill friends and relatives.

It’s no fantasy...I’m just saying business will continue and things have to reopen. Secondary effects of depression, economic loss, and other fallout from prolonged shutdowns aren’t fantasies either. We are talking business here. The worst is over for business because we’ve decided to reopen. Yes, that has consequences that may directly or indirectly impact some loss of life, but the alternative does too.

I respect you, but the “people are dying” argument ender doesn’t end the discussion or make the decisions easy just because we could save some lives. We operate on utility every day, with everythig we do And every decision has direct and indirect benefits and consequences.

I’m sorry for all those who have been impacted by this, but there is more to the story. It’s not so easy.

 

[Tinkwings]

The unfortunate thing is we're seeing second and third waves all over the world seemingly regardless of precautions taken. Luckily we're smarter now about how to treat the disease, but I really fear flu season and the issues that will bring. Literally everyone should get a flu shot this year if at all possible.

Wish they would do drive thru flu shots....am going to begin pestering doctor's office about that.....

 

[marni1971]

I respect you

Thank you. But unless we nip this in the bud now it will last longer and the effects - in terms of lives lost and business damage - will be more pronounced and last longer too. Short term pain for long term relative normality.

We don’t want the parks to close again. We want air routes to reopen. So if that means masks everywhere and closing bars and restaurants for a month again so be it.

 

[GoofGoof]

It’s no fantasy...I’m just saying business will continue and things have to reopen. Secondary effects of depression, economic loss, and other fallout from prolonged shutdowns aren’t fantasies either. We are talking business here. The worst is over for business because we’ve decided to reopen. Yes, that has consequences that may directly or indirectly impact some loss of life, but the alternative does too.

I respect you, but the “people are dying” argument ender doesn’t end the discussion or make the decisions easy just because we could save some lives. We operate on utility every day, with everythig we do And every decision has direct and indirect benefits and consequences.

I’m sorry for all those who have been impacted by this, but there is more to the story. It’s not so easy.

Business continues and things re-open but as we’ve seen from WDW and Universal if we don’t have cases under control the customers won’t come. It’s not as simple as re-open and the economy is saved. Let’s not turn this into another Covid thread though. So that’s the last I will say on that.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The rights fee paid by streaming services for Friends, Seinfeld, The Office, Big bang, etc. suggest that it isn't all about new content.

Those are the hooks...but they don’t keep people forever.

I doubt many new Netflix subscribers hang on for 10 years for access to Star Trek: TNG

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

90%+ decrease in revenue yields 12% increase in stock price??? Imagine how stock price would surge further if WDW had a 100% decrease in revenue.

What’s unreasonable about that?

Why should the stock of a consumer product company go down just because they don’t sell anything?

 

[WDW Pro]

Thank you. But unless we nip this in the bud now it will last longer and the effects - in terms of lives lost and business damage - will be more pronounced and last longer too. Short term pain for long term relative normality.

We don’t want the parks to close again. We want air routes to reopen. So if that means masks everywhere and closing bars and restaurants for a month again so be it.

I agree, but I'm not sure it's that simple. Reaching herd immunity seems to be the only solution, and doing that as quickly (vaccine please) and without crippling your health care system suggests the only route. Until a vaccine comes about, I think our present is our future for many months and years.

 

[Phicinfan]

I agree, but I'm not sure it's that simple. Reaching herd immunity seems to be the only solution, and doing that as quickly (vaccine please) and without crippling your health care system suggests the only route. Until a vaccine comes about, I think our present is our future for many months and years.

Issue with herd immunity is it may not be feasible with this without a vaccine. There has already been cases or reinfection, so if we don't get a vaccine, I don't see herd immunity helping

 

[hopemax]

With this quarter, I think the bar is set pretty low. They're looking for companies that have lifeboats afloat that are staying afloat and not too leaky. Nobody wants to be holding the equivalent of Lehman Bros (Bear Stearns was April, Lehman was September) when someone unexpected, goes boom. Everyone knows about the Theme Park problem, but Sports are coming back and people think studio production is not that far away. There wasn’t anything unexpected, so Disney passed the first test.

The Jumanji memes are a little on point here. There’s that little giddiness when you realize you made it past whatever obstacle that was trying to kill you, even though there are more dangerous obstacles ahead. Or the, "You don't need to run faster than the bear, just faster than someone else." There are companies that will be way more exposed than Disney is. Unlike the above posters, there will be more obstacles ahead. Virus timeline (including vaccine), the election, geopolitical unrest. Disney for now, is an okay place to be.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Markets look forward bro...worst is over, says Mr. Market. Parks are open...things are opening up again, companies are adapting and people are adapting. Can’t stop progress.

The Fed is also pumping trillions of liquidity into the market, so why fight it? We won’t let companies fail...too important to our livelihood.

Nobody is traveling in these conditions, Bro...you can keep saying it - but it’s gonna have to actually change.

Hold tight.

People that talk about the markets like money. So they always predict more money. Not a conspiracy...just the truth. Things “always” look better tomorrow.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Thank you. But unless we nip this in the bud now it will last longer and the effects - in terms of lives lost and business damage - will be more pronounced and last longer too. Short term pain for long term relative normality.

We don’t want the parks to close again. We want air routes to reopen. So if that means masks everywhere and closing bars and restaurants for a month again so be it.

Sadly, there is no bud to be nipped, it appears. That is the bigger issue. People want to blame and politicize, but sometimes **** just happens and you have to deal with It. That’s what Disney and everyone is trying to do.

Closing for a month is no guarantee to be effective and 30 days from now you’re back where you are today...virus still here. Adherence to masks might be just as effective, but you need cooperation. There are so many moving parts, it’s difficult to know exactly what works and has the minimum consequence.

We went through short term pain already. Call it poorly implemented, not long enough, whatever....but I think the argument would be it didn’t stop the virus anyway. Doing it again would have the same downsides and implementation issues with secondary effects.

Tell the small business owner he has to lose his livelihood because he has to be shut down. That is tragic for his family And has real domino effects. Depression, abuse, divorce, suicide, crime, etc. it’s a mess.

 

[WDW Pro]

Scrub a dub dub.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think somebody was warned to not talk about covid and “contaminate” the threads today...

Too much to ask?

 

[marni1971]

We went through short term pain already. Call it poorly implemented, not long enough, whatever....but I think the argument would be it didn’t stop the virus anyway. Doing it again would have the same downsides and implantation issues with secondary effects.

With respect, It seems Florida and perhaps the wider US didn’t.