News Disneyland Resort Now CLOSED Due To Coronavirus - Reopening Date Unknown

TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives

Well-Known Member
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Well it’s worth the time and effort if it satisfies the need to know who has and who doesn’t have favor and the balance of saving our economy. But yes it’s extremely impractical. I own a small business I would love to get instant test results like a pregnancy test on my employees every third day or so during this pandemic. It’s not happening, I know... just tossing out a thought.
You start running into either significant costs if you do that and HIPPA laws. It's one thing for a drug/alcohol test, but for this? I'm not sure if that would be legally viable.

I get the idea behind it. If you're sick, stay home. For many of these people, they may not even know they're sick. If the test currently is to stick a long cotton swap through my nose and that back of my throat, you're going to have a hard time getting me to consent to that twice a week.
 

Blu

Member
You start running into either significant costs if you do that and HIPPA laws. It's one thing for a drug/alcohol test, but for this? I'm not sure if that would be legally viable.

I get the idea behind it. If you're sick, stay home. For many of these people, they may not even know they're sick. If the test currently is to stick a long cotton swap through my nose and that back of my throat, you're going to have a hard time getting me to consent to that twice a week.
Yeah I wouldn’t either...but the group as a whole should feel safer... and be willing to get back to work... social distancing is sooooooo boring.
 

Disney Mesocosm

Active Member
My brother teaches statistical analysis at the University of Washington, and he has been feeding me UW's Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) numbers for a couple of months. Projections for individual states can be found here ...


Here's a screenshot of the latest projection for California:



Screenshot_20200331-083150_Samsung Internet.jpg

At some point, federal and state officials are going to need to start talking about the metric upon which the decision to ease "stay at home" restrictions, and to reboot the economy, is going to be made. One of the key measures is the infection's rate of reproduction ... R0 (pronounced "R naught"). The rudimentary interpretation of R0 is: When R0 > 1.0 the infection is increasing within the population; When R < 1.0 the infection is decreasing within the population.

More about R0 here:

The projection of when R0 will trend below 1.0 in California remains unclear ... several key dynamic variables have yet to be confidently estimated as of today. When a confident trend line that projects R0 going below 1.0 emerges, that`s when we can have a less speculative discussion as to when Disneyland will reopen.

Just my opinion ... your mileage will vary.
 
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mandstaft

Well-Known Member
My family members and friends are RNs in hospitals. It's all hands on deck. It is the profession they studied for and chose to do. They are petrified to come to work everyday.
Yes, we have a son at home who works with docs and nurses treating virus patients and trains staff in decontamination safety. He's not afraid, but he is taking this very serious. It's his 24th straight DAY of working 16 hour days to serve the community.
 

mharrington

Well-Known Member
At some point, federal and state officials are going to need to start talking about the metric upon which the decision to ease "stay at home" restrictions, and to reboot the economy, is going to be made. One of the key measures is the infection's rate of reproduction ... R0 (pronounced "R naught"). The rudimentary interpretation of R0 is: When R0 > 1.0 the infection is increasing within the population; When R < 1.0 the infection is decreasing within the population.

More about R0 here:

The projection of when R0 will trend below 1.0 in California remains unclear ... several key dynamic variables have yet to be confidently estimated as of today. When a confident trend line that projects R0 going below 1.0 emerges, that`s when we can have a less speculative discussion as to when Disneyland will reopen.
You probably know the answer already, but do you know when some of the key dynamic variables (if not the trend line) will be estimated?
 

Travel Junkie

Well-Known Member
Something of note for those trying to predict when the parks may reopen. Disney has announced a new deal for those who booked packages at either WDW or DLR. Those whose trip was cancelled due to Covid 19 can rebook and receive a discount. The dates you can rebook begin on June 1st. That seems like the date Disney currently feels comfortable with booking people.
 

ProfessorPepper

Active Member
Look, have we shut down the Freeways until there are zero deaths?

How about Disneyland, it has caused many deaths over the years.

There are 327 Million people in the US. You can't ask/expect that many people to put their lifes on hold to save 10 lifes.

Things we do every day put us at the risk of death. That meal might poison you, or you might choke on it.

Yes, we practice food safety, and teach people the Hemilich manuever, but people still die due to those causes.

When we find a good medical treatment, or when we test enough people, and we are quickly making progress on both of those, life has to return to somewhat normal. The vast majority of Americans will demand it.

Over the next two weeks, we find that over 10% of Americans have tested positive, and the death count remains low, people will say, we don't close down the country due to other flus/viruses, why are we forced to do it now.

We have always lived in a society of acceptable risks. Yes, we have OSHA and increased safety procedures, but for many, going to work for the day means you might not go home, but end up dead instead.

How about bridges, have we stopped building them, just because people have died building them? No, the value of a bridge to society outweighs the possible loss of life. Same with mining coal, but in this case, the coal that was mined saved peoples life's in heating homes.

We have lived with risks since humans were created. A lot less of us currently die from being eaten by other animals, but it still happens today.

Your goal is unrealistic. There comes a point in time where the majority of the population will demand we get back to living our day to day lifes.
I'm not gonna lie, you said a whole lot of nothing here in regards to my question Darkbeer. I asked how are things not going to escalate to how things are now if places of gatherings of >250 people open too soon? I get they are just doing this now to not overburden the health system but if you stop social distancing when R0 is on the downward trend it will revert back to trending upward which would again put a risk of burdening the healthcare system which is why non-essential businesses closed in the first place. You're pretty knowledge from what I read. Don't you think it would be smarter to only close businesses once instead of twice because we all got just a little anxious? Don't you think people are more willing to listen to the scientists and data than ever before? Take this pandemic seriously god damnit!

PS you must of misspoken when you said "over 10% of Americans have tested positive," is it not 10% of all those tested test positive?
 

Disney Irish

Well-Known Member
I'm not gonna lie, you said a whole lot of nothing here in regards to my question Darkbeer. I asked how are things not going to escalate to how things are now if places of gatherings of >250 people open too soon? I get they are just doing this now to not overburden the health system but if you stop social distancing when R0 is on the downward trend it will revert back to trending upward which would again put a risk of burdening the healthcare system which is why non-essential businesses closed in the first place. You're pretty knowledge from what I read. Don't you think it would be smarter to only close businesses once instead of twice because we all got just a little anxious? Don't you think people are more willing to listen to the scientists and data than ever before? Take this pandemic seriously god damnit!

PS you must of misspoken when you said "over 10% of Americans have tested positive," is it not 10% of all those tested test positive?
Let me ask you a direct question, forget Disney for a second. Do you think the US economy (or the world's economy for that matter) will be able to withstand the entire country being shutdown for over a year (or more) waiting for the availability of a vaccine and the infection count to go to 0? I mean even the earliest a vaccine is going to be available for testing is September. And that is going to take 3-6 months of testing to find out if its safe and works. That means we're into almost mid-2021 before they can start giving it out to the entire public.

A short term shutdown people can handle, but a year long shutdown and people will riot. Again the whole point of the stay at home orders is to lessen the burden on the healthcare system not to completely stop the spread of COVID-19. Health officials expect it to spread, its how viruses work. They also expect it to flair up again in the fall/winter, but will be more prepared for it as they stockpile supplies.
 

ProfessorPepper

Active Member
The economy will have to for 3-4 EDIT: 2 and a half more months is all I'm saying based on the math I left earlier that's available all over the internet. In order for it to get under control there will be a need to have everybody who is infected accounted for until any new cases are traceable. I know this is capable to work when the amount of cases are in the low hundreds across the country. I just want to take a moment to acknowledge SARS and Ebola have been contained and the whole world is working at containing this one.

The main goal is to get the outbreak under control. As Bill Gates said, “But bringing the economy back ... that’s more of a reversible thing than bringing people back to life. So we’re going to take the pain in the economic dimension — huge pain — in order to minimize the pain in the diseases-and-death dimension.”
 
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Mouse Trap

Well-Known Member
The economy will have to for 3-4 more months is all I'm saying based on the math I left earlier that's available all over the internet. In order for it to get under control there will be a need to have everybody who is infected accounted for until any new cases are traceable. I know this is capable to work when the amount of cases are in the low hundreds across the country. I just want to take a moment to acknowledge SARS and Ebola have been contained and the whole world is working at containing this one.

The main goal is to get the outbreak under control. As Bill Gates said, “But bringing the economy back ... that’s more of a reversible thing than bringing people back to life. So we’re going to take the pain in the economic dimension — huge pain — in order to minimize the pain in the diseases-and-death dimension.”
SARS and Ebola were/are much more deadly and thus much easier to contain. The faster and more often people die, the less people they can spread it to.
 

Disney Mesocosm

Active Member
You probably know the answer already, but do you know when some of the key dynamic variables (if not the trend line) will be estimated?
A little personal background first ... I'm a biologist, NOT an epidemiologist (I strongly urge all readers of my posts on this topic to explore the links that I include with my posts. They are infinitely more informative than I could ever hope to be). I was raised in Tustin in the 1970's. My father retired as the Director of Hospital and Health Cares Services for the County of Los Angeles in 1981 ... I grew up listening to public health policy discussions, and stories of the internal decision-making process & politics of the LA County Board of Supervisors, at the dinner table.

I've never fully recovered ... 😂

To answer your question ... no one knows ... yet. The variables are a lot more elusive to quantify than you might think, particularly in the absence of wide spread testing. Things like infectious period, the actual number of infected people at a specific time (especially difficult given that many infected are asymptomatic ... this difficulty disappears when antibody testing becomes widespread), the degree and duration of post-infection immunity, and the future impact of current disease control measures are all being looked at intensely ... but the numbers simply aren't in ... yet.

For more on quantifying R0 of a coronavirus:

Unfortuneately, "uncertainty" is something that we're all going to need to get used to for at least the next 8 weeks.

HTH ... 😎
 

ProfessorPepper

Active Member
@Mouse Trap true but don't let that discount the rest of what I said. Especially when there's a proportionate amount of attention and effort being poured into this right now. The quote is about covid-19 in any case.
 

Darkbeer1

Well-Known Member
From Anaheim's Mayor Pro Tem's e-mail sent today.

>>With more than 100 hotels closed, over 50 percent of our restaurants closed, and nearly 40 percent of general businesses closed, our economy is one of the hardest hit in the country. Tens of thousands of local workers have had their jobs cut, hours reduced, or have been furloughed. Compounding the harm, every month that our businesses stay closed, our city’s General Fund loses tens of millions of dollars in tax revenue, which will eventually strain our ability to provide services to residents. The sooner we get our industries back to full strength, more than 40,000 jobs will be restored locally, and funding to provide vital city services will recover.<<
 

Mouse Trap

Well-Known Member
@Mouse Trap true but don't let that discount the rest of what I said. Especially when there's a proportionate amount of attention and effort being poured into this right now. The quote is about covid-19 in any case.
Not all economic damage is reversible. Some ~200,000+ deaths in America are attributed to poverty and socioeconomic factors each year. We risk accelerating and expanding this number greatly if we shut down for too long.

Again - I'm not saying we reopen the economy tomorrow. But things will go back to "normal" FAR before the case count hits 0.
 
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