News Disneyland Resort Now CLOSED Due To Coronavirus - Reopening Date Unknown

ProfessorPepper

Active Member
Just as a generous estimate, laws of logistic functions state that when you hit your maximum rate, at the inflection point, you are exactly half way to the maximum amount of cases. My friend is a nurse here in Orange County and they are being told that it will peak in about 4 weeks. Quick maths: It "started" around the last week of February and 5+4=9 which puts us at April 25 and 9 weeks after that is June 27. This is all ignoring the fact that social distancing started in the 4th week of the 11 week and that would change the number of exposures variable midway.
But still, mathematically speaking, don't expect things to be like how they were in February, which feels like a year ago, until June 20ish.
 
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Mouse Trap

Well-Known Member
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Can you (and @Darkbeer1 ) please elaborate why if Disney opened before 1.) there's a vaccine and 2.) there's 0 new reported infections, that the situation would not escalate right back to our current situation? Dr. Fauchi is estimating that we can stop (or curb, I forget) this virus before 1% of America's population is exposed so it's not like there will be less people susceptible like in all the models we've seen of the flattened curves.

P.S. it was getting serious here in America when there were hundreds of cases not thousands so why does anyone even waste their energy on thinking there would be less than hundreds of active cases by mid-May? heck, even July?! Or do y'all really think this is the first and only time the "social distancing guidelines" will be pushed back?
First I want to say any of my "predictions" you must take for what they are. I'm not a medical professional. I'm drawing my insight from one of my dearest friends who has worked at the CDC for 10 years as well as my professional time as a consultant - which I have many friends in the industry already working in the public and private sector on what a reopening MIGHT look like.

Things got serious here when there were hundreds of cases because America was not prepared at all. I can't stress this enough... we literally did not prepare at all. Our response to this virus can be compared to if it was an unknown virus that emerged stateside, not something we knew existed since January. If we had seriously prepared for even a few weeks we'd be in a whole difference scenario right now - but we can't change that.

Hoping for 0 new infections is a dream. It's not realistic. The flu is less contagious and has a vaccine and we've never gotten that down to 0 new infections. COVID19 - like the flu and H1N1 will come in waves. Right now we are the least prepared we ever will be for it and have no herd immunity. As waves come and go until a vaccine arrives we can just be more prepared with better testing, more treatment options, some herd immunity and hopefully the population will take personal hygiene precautions.

The example to look at is South Korea where life is very "normal". They've flattened the curve, but still have 100 or so cases everyday and are a much more densely populated country than the USA. Movie theaters are open (some are shuttering now because of financial issues), offices and restaurants are open - there have been virtually no shutdowns. There are certainly precautions in place, but life is very much more normal than not.

100 cases daily in SK is equivalent to about 650 cases daily in the USA when comparing populations.

If South Korea can achieve this with mass testing and public health awareness - why can't the richest country in the world? The virus still exists in SK and new cases are popping up steadily everyday, but they've got a hold on their situation and have invested greatly in fighting COVID19. This is what the future for the USA looks like in terms of operating "normally" with the virus still existing.

Control this first outbreak. Prepare for continued (hopefully lesser) outbreaks. Invest infinitely in testing/treatments.
 
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lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
This story does not make sense. Pausing/terminating construction is not usually described as a layoff nor are contractors paid for not working. Disney does employ independent contractors, especially at Walt Disney Imagineering, and large scale ending of contractors has been described as a layoff in the past.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
This story does not make sense. Pausing/terminating construction is not usually described as a layoff nor are contractors paid for not working. Disney does employ independent contractors, especially at Walt Disney Imagineering, and large scale ending of contractors has been described as a layoff in the past.
Laying off staff, then Disney doesn't have to cover the ones affected with medical benefits.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
Laying off staff, then Disney doesn't have to cover the ones affected with medical benefits.
BVCC has always been considered Disney staff. They get the generous medical benefits and park passes. This I believe is just the beginning.
Buena Vista Construction Company does not do the major projects. The general contractor for Star Wars: Galactic Starcruiser is PCL. Remy's Ratatouille Adventure is Balfour Beaty. TRON Power Run is Whiting Turner. Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmis Rewind is Barton Malow.
 

Darkbeer1

Well-Known Member
Can you (and @Darkbeer1 ) please elaborate why if Disney opened before 1.) there's a vaccine and 2.) there's 0 new reported infections, that the situation would not escalate right back to our current situation? Dr. Fauchi is estimating that we can stop (or curb, I forget) this virus before 1% of America's population is exposed so it's not like there will be less people susceptible like in all the models we've seen of the flattened curves.

P.S. it was getting serious here in America when there were hundreds of cases not thousands so why does anyone even waste their energy on thinking there would be less than hundreds of active cases by mid-May? heck, even July?! Or do y'all really think this is the first and only time the "social distancing guidelines" will be pushed back?
Look, have we shut down the Freeways until there are zero deaths?

How about Disneyland, it has caused many deaths over the years.

There are 327 Million people in the US. You can't ask/expect that many people to put their lifes on hold to save 10 lifes.

Things we do every day put us at the risk of death. That meal might poison you, or you might choke on it.

Yes, we practice food safety, and teach people the Hemilich manuever, but people still die due to those causes.

When we find a good medical treatment, or when we test enough people, and we are quickly making progress on both of those, life has to return to somewhat normal. The vast majority of Americans will demand it.

Over the next two weeks, we find that over 10% of Americans have tested positive, and the death count remains low, people will say, we don't close down the country due to other flus/viruses, why are we forced to do it now.

We have always lived in a society of acceptable risks. Yes, we have OSHA and increased safety procedures, but for many, going to work for the day means you might not go home, but end up dead instead.

How about bridges, have we stopped building them, just because people have died building them? No, the value of a bridge to society outweighs the possible loss of life. Same with mining coal, but in this case, the coal that was mined saved peoples life's in heating homes.

We have lived with risks since humans were created. A lot less of us currently die from being eaten by other animals, but it still happens today.

Your goal is unrealistic. There comes a point in time where the majority of the population will demand we get back to living our day to day lifes.
 

TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives

Well-Known Member
Can you (and @Darkbeer1 ) please elaborate why if Disney opened before 1.) there's a vaccine and 2.) there's 0 new reported infections, that the situation would not escalate right back to our current situation? Dr. Fauchi is estimating that we can stop (or curb, I forget) this virus before 1% of America's population is exposed so it's not like there will be less people susceptible like in all the models we've seen of the flattened curves.

P.S. it was getting serious here in America when there were hundreds of cases not thousands so why does anyone even waste their energy on thinking there would be less than hundreds of active cases by mid-May? heck, even July?! Or do y'all really think this is the first and only time the "social distancing guidelines" will be pushed back?
I'm neither of the people mentioned, but I'm going to respond anyways.

Do you understand why we are having these lockdowns/shutdowns? It's because our healthcare system would've been overloaded if not. The virus would've spread at a rate that they couldn't keep up with while not having the proper supplies to handle the onslaught of people. On top of that, you would've had everyone who freaks out when their throat is mildly soar rushing in to the ER, demanding to be tested, and taking resources away from those who need the attention.

The purpose of this was to slow this thing down long enough for our healthcare providers to get a handle on this and determine potential solutions. This was not so we can get a vaccine out there first. This was not to stop people from catching the virus. It was not for any of those things.

There will be new cases every single day. Don't trust China. They're lying to us. They're not testing their citizens or killing the ones that do have it and stuffing their bodies in a corner somewhere. You can't trust their numbers. There is no way to 'beat' this thing. Eventually, everything has to go back to normal.

Do you know the number of people out of work? Over 3 million people filed for unemployment last week. Right now we are projecting for 47 million people to be without a job and to hit some 30% unemployment rate. That is bonkers. That is unfathomable. We were at 3% or so in February! We potentially won't even have 47 million people infected with the virus. You're going to have a difficult time convincing people to keep everything non-essential shut down for a year.

There will be cases. We will have to deal. Doctors are more prepared today than they were two weeks ago and that trend will continue. Unfortunately, travel will remain down and people will largely stay in doors as a result of not having the funds or just because they're scared.
 

Blu

Member
I'm neither of the people mentioned, but I'm going to respond anyways.

Do you understand why we are having these lockdowns/shutdowns? It's because our healthcare system would've been overloaded if not. The virus would've spread at a rate that they couldn't keep up with while not having the proper supplies to handle the onslaught of people. On top of that, you would've had everyone who freaks out when their throat is mildly soar rushing in to the ER, demanding to be tested, and taking resources away from those who need the attention.

The purpose of this was to slow this thing down long enough for our healthcare providers to get a handle on this and determine potential solutions. This was not so we can get a vaccine out there first. This was not to stop people from catching the virus. It was not for any of those things.

There will be new cases every single day. Don't trust China. They're lying to us. They're not testing their citizens or killing the ones that do have it and stuffing their bodies in a corner somewhere. You can't trust their numbers. There is no way to 'beat' this thing. Eventually, everything has to go back to normal.

Do you know the number of people out of work? Over 3 million people filed for unemployment last week. Right now we are projecting for 47 million people to be without a job and to hit some 30% unemployment rate. That is bonkers. That is unfathomable. We were at 3% or so in February! We potentially won't even have 47 million people infected with the virus. You're going to have a difficult time convincing people to keep everything non-essential shut down for a year.

There will be cases. We will have to deal. Doctors are more prepared today than they were two weeks ago and that trend will continue. Unfortunately, travel will remain down and people will largely stay in doors as a result of not having the funds or just because they're scared.
A very valid argument. I think it would hold the most water if we could all be tested. When I drive on a freeway, I know that everyone there ( for the most part) has gone through drivers education. I know the restaurant where I’m about to eat at has been screened by the health department. If we knew that the workers at say, Home Depot had all been tested and continued to be monitored, shopping there during this pandemic shopping would return to at least an average pace. But since no one can be tested until you show signs or have connections who knows what’s covid free and what’s not. My point is knowing the world outside your door has been tested and is being monitored would allow people to get back to it, to a degree. I’m also aware testing of this nature is a unrealistic ask, just implying it should be a higher priority then it currently is, IMO.
 

mandstaft

Well-Known Member
I wouldn't want to be in ANY politicians shoes during this situation. One on hand, you must look out for the safety of the people. On the other hand, you must think about its future. In both cases, you must bring a dose of hope along with the gritty facts. You won't make anyone happy. Damned if you do and damned if you don't.
 

TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives

Well-Known Member
A very valid argument. I think it would hold the most water if we could all be tested. When I drive on a freeway, I know that everyone there ( for the most part) has gone through drivers education. I know the restaurant where I’m about to eat at has been screened by the health department. If we knew that the workers at say, Home Depot had all been tested and continued to be monitored, shopping there during this pandemic shopping would return to at least an average pace. But since no one can be tested until you show signs or have connections who knows what’s covid free and what’s not. My point is knowing the world outside your door has been tested and is being monitored would allow people to get back to it, to a degree. I’m also aware testing of this nature is a unrealistic ask, just implying it should be a higher priority then it currently is, IMO.
But are you looking at doing weekly tests?

There was someone on these forums suggesting that only those who have been sick and thus have immunity (potentially) be allowed to go about their lives while those of us who haven't been sick should stay at home. That's a ridiculous suggestion.

I think weekly tests are very invasive. I don't know how you manage such a program and if it's even worth the time and effort.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
I wouldn't want to be in ANY politicians shoes during this situation. One on hand, you must look out for the safety of the people. On the other hand, you must think about its future. In both cases, you must bring a dose of hope along with the gritty facts. You won't make anyone happy. Damned if you do and damned if you don't.
My family members and friends are RNs in hospitals. It's all hands on deck. It is the profession they studied for and chose to do. They are petrified to come to work everyday.
 

Blu

Member
But are you looking at doing weekly tests?

There was someone on these forums suggesting that only those who have been sick and thus have immunity (potentially) be allowed to go about their lives while those of us who haven't been sick should stay at home. That's a ridiculous suggestion.

I think weekly tests are very invasive. I don't know how you manage such a program and if it's even worth the time and effort.
Well it’s worth the time and effort if it satisfies the need to know who has and who doesn’t have favor and the balance of saving our economy. But yes it’s extremely impractical. I own a small business I would love to get instant test results like a pregnancy test on my employees every third day or so during this pandemic. It’s not happening, I know... just tossing out a thought.
 
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