Disney at the Box Office - So what happens now?

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Worth mentioning overall it’s the worst non-pandemic total for this 5-day Thanksgiving stretch since 2001, not counting inflation which would make it look even worse. Still don’t see how the theatrical business continues without major changes.
I think it’s a sign of the times

And Disneys still the biggest loser by a lot
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
It’s impossible to explain why something you haven’t seen is bad. Sure, you might be able to tell it’s not your cup of tea, but (as we’ve seen time and again in these threads) when people who haven’t seen the films they’re criticising attempt to account for their harsh assessments, they frequently make stuff up or parrot questionable (mis)information they’ve found online.
Stop…

It failed…parsing is pointless and bobs benefit

A reminder: Bob hates me…you…and everyone else on this thread

Break the mental chains of bondage already
 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I think it’s a sign of the times

And Disneys still the biggest loser by a lot

I agree it’s a sign of the times, and the entire industry needs to adjust, especially Disney. Budgets must be decreased.

Luckily next year I think Disney will be better off, simply from a much slimmed down release calendar.
 

erasure fan1

Well-Known Member
It’s impossible to explain why something you haven’t seen is bad. Sure, you might be able to tell it’s not your cup of tea, but (as we’ve seen time and again in these threads) when people who haven’t seen the films they’re criticising attempt to account for their harsh assessments, they frequently make stuff up or parrot questionable (mis)information they’ve found online.
That's why I said oversimplification. But keep in mind the same thing happens with people saying why the film is great and they haven't seen it either. I think most can see when someone is being disingenuous on either side of the argument. It all boils down to personal opinion. If I think a movie is bad, you can't tell me it wasn't. Because what's bad to me, might be great to you. You have to Obi-wan it and see it from a certain point of view. It's not always black and white.

If you read someone saying the film is bad because all captain marvel does is punch every male character in the face. Yes, you can't do that, because we know that is just a false statement. And you have every right to go after that poster. But if I say it's bad because they used two characters from tv and has bad CGI. I'm not wrong, even if I haven't seen it yet. Because no one can tell me what's good. It's all just opinions. That doesn't mean I'm right about the film because two tv actresses could be something you loved about it.
 

Ghost93

Well-Known Member
* Do a release of Song of the South in the Criterion Collection for adult collectors. It’s out, but not quite through us at Disney.
While I would be okay with an official release for adult collectors, I think that ship has sailed. Criterion could have maybe gotten away with a release in the mid 2000s/early 2010s when there was still a lot of people clamoring for a DVD release and when there was still some mystery surrounding the movie. But by now, post the George FLoyd Protests and the Splash Mountain Retheme and Karina Longworth's podcast — I just think there would be too much negative publicity around a DVD release, even if handled well.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Just to review, here's how the box office forecasts for Thanksgiving week evolved for Wish over the last 30 days, and where they actually ended up by Sunday, November 26th.

Five Day Opening Thanksgiving Weekend Forecast for Wish, Domestic Box Office

October 26th Forecast = $64 to $94 Million
November 16th Forecast = $57 to $86 Million
November 21st Forecast = $49 to $66 Million

Sunday, November 26th Actual Total = $31.7 Million

 

drizgirl

Well-Known Member
That's because most of the people you're asking haven't seen the films themselves.
I saw Indy. I thought it had some issues, but I'm still glad we went. I saw Haunted Mansion. My Disney loving daughter asked if we should leave after the first 30 minutes (we didn't but neither of us will watch it again).

As for the rest, every single person who goes to movies forms some sort of an opinion from a variety of sources when deciding whether to spend hard earned money buying tickets for their family. I'm disappointed there haven't been more Disney options that earned good enough reviews for me to pull the trigger and go.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Also on the Wish front, foreigners seem to be even less interested in it than Americans. Wish still has yet to open in six major foreign markets; South Korea, Japan, Italy, Australia, New Zealand and Brazil.

But Wish opened last Thursday or Friday in the dozen other major markets, including Communist China, and the box office flopped in foreign lands. The number below is the first pass estimate as of Sunday afternoon, to be updated down to exact dollars tomorrow.

On this current trajectory, the overseas box office is coming in even weaker than the domestic box office is.

Overseas Is Over It.jpg
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
While plenty of turkey sandwiches were made on Friday and Saturday, not many people went back for leftovers of The Marvels this weekend.

The Marvels has basically flatlined at the box office now, both domestically and overseas, and it only made about $8 Million domestic over the entire 5 day holiday weekend. Here's how it now stacks up against the four previous Marvel movies of the post-pandemic era.

Boys Against The Girls.jpg
 

doctornick

Well-Known Member
While I would be okay with an official release for adult collectors, I think that ship has sailed. Criterion could have maybe gotten away with a release in the mid 2000s/early 2010s when there was still a lot of people clamoring for a DVD release and when there was still some mystery surrounding the movie. But by now, post the George FLoyd Protests and the Splash Mountain Retheme and Karina Longworth's podcast — I just think there would be too much negative publicity around a DVD release, even if handled well.
While I agree it would never happen, the flip side is that is potentially a move that actually might win back some of the Fox News crowd promoting that Disney is more neutral. And it could be couched in the premise that they are doing it for the sanctity of film making rather than capitulating to conservative wing nuts.

Again, not that it would happen, but I think it would be a reflection of how any decision that is part of the culture wars can have both positives and negatives
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Speaking of movies by ladies, for ladies.... here's how The Marvels stacks up against the other three most successful box office movies of 2023 that were aimed at a young female demographic.

It's interesting that young women failed to show up for The Marvels, and that film's very low box office was really only fueled by men over age 25. Why didn't the women of the world support inclusive stories of female empowerment from Marvel?

Womens Lib.jpg
 

jrice

Member
This is exactly coincides with the lack of brand trust.
May e Wish us better to some then Trolls 3. But there is lack of people's faith in that being the case and they trust Universal/DreamWorks right now, even with the occasional miss, than they do Disney.

At a certain point, they lose enough trust where people won't fork over the benefit of the doubt.
When the movie is less than stellar, that hurts the brand more.
This is spot on! Disney lost the trust of their audience and what they are pushing out. It’s no secret what they are trying to do but are exhausted from it. I am sad for Disney because I love their parks.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Another reminder that the box office projections for Wish kept getting revised down the past few weeks.

And yet even when it landed at a final projection of $40 Million that was predicted to be "disappointing", Wish couldn't even hit those lowered expectations and only got $31 Million in its first 5 days in theaters.


 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
There’s really nothing about The Marvels that would indicate “pandering” to any particular group. Unless simply having women leads is “pandering”

Then why do you think it flopped so badly at the box office with women of all ages (plus Gen Z boys aged 18 to 25) and the audience that did see it were 61% male and mostly over age 25?

Why do you think women in both the USA and overseas failed to show up to see The Marvels?
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
…”some delays” for special effects

Constantly looking for TWDC excuses are never that clever…
And they still don’t care about you no matter what you say.

Keep swinging, slugger
If you actually read what I posted I actually wasn't giving an excuse I was actually putting blame on the company. And I still never mentioned Covid. Specifically I was talking about Quantumania, which wasn't delayed by Covid, on how if they hadn't had to reshot parts of it it wouldn't have put pressure on the VFX Team causing some bad VFX to be put out.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I'd still like to know who thought moving Haunted Mansion up from August 14 to July 28 was a good idea?

It should have been released Labor Day weekend to coincide with the start of Halloween in the theme parks and capitalize on kids being out of school for the long weekend. Then it could have been put on Disney+ right before Halloween after a 45 day+ theatrical only window.
Its original release date was March 10th, so at least they moved it closer to fall time then it was originally scheduled.
 

Indy_UK

Well-Known Member
Not surprised Marvels have been another bomb. I don’t know where they are with the current phase but when it’s done, they need to take a couple of years off at the Box office and maybe just do Disney+ shows that don’t tie into the films.

Wish I ‘wished’ would do better but yet again, they aren’t releasing stuff that’s drawing me into the cinema.

TBH, I don’t keep tabs on other studios but are they doing just as bad and it’s mainly a post Covid phenomenon? (Barbie/Oppenheimer aside)
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Looking ahead at box office for Wish based on its current post-Thanksgiving trajectory, it's not a rosy picture.

The lowest estimate for Wish's opening week was a total of $57 Million domestically. But it only got $31 Million, about 55% of its worst estimate. The total domestic run projection after a lowball $57 Million opening was estimated at $165 Million.

A4.jpg

A11.jpg


Actuals 11/26/23: .................... $19,500,000 ..................... $31,700,000 ... $91,000,000?????

I'm just spitballing this math, and I'd love to hear some other thoughts or scenarios, but...

The trajectory for Wish now puts it at around a $91 Million total domestic run by the time it exits theaters in early January. Let's round up to $100 Million for now. The overseas box office is so far even weaker for Wish in the major markets its opened in than it is domestically, but maybe it will find a healthy audience in South Korea? Maybe New Zealand will come in big? If you assume the overseas box office is similar to the USA box office, Wish is heading towards a $200 Million-ish global total.

With a $200 Million production budget and a $100 Million marketing campaign, Wish is now looking like it will lose at least $150 Million for Disney and possibly up to $200 Million at the global box office. 😬
 
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