Disney answers Universal with a massive theme park investment

[Dan Deesnee]

Because people keep going to the parks, particularly in Orlando, with very little updates or changes, and without much of an attendance dip to speak of. Unlike in the days before DVDs or the internet, Disney cannot get by on re-releasing their films into theaters every so often, which is essentially the equivalent. One is a much more constant revenue stream than the other, especially with movies having short shelf lives in wide release, except for the very biggest films..

Pent up COVID demand.

Watch attendance fall over the next 12 months...

 

[montyz81]

It will not be an issue for Disney execs until someone knocks MK Orlando off its attendance pedestal. Will that happen when Epic opens? Based on what it looks like and the negative backlash hitting Disney Company right now, it very much could. But, by then Iger will be gone, and the new person will not have had time to put together a plan to fend off Universal. That being said, do we really think they care? It seems that their attitude is less competitive than it used to be and more profit-focused (not that it wasn't profit-focused before)

 

[Sorcerer Mickey]

Pent up COVID demand.

Watch attendance fall over the next 12 months...

This is what tech and streaming companies are grappling with now. FAANG thought "the COVID economy" was the economy. They hit their 10-year expectations in less than two years, but it was a temporary blip and now things are going back to 2019. Thus why Facebook, Twitter, and Amazon are laying off armies of employees. Where did Instacart go? How is Uber Eats doing these days?

The peak of the tech wave was in 2020 because of lockdown and now that wave is crashing on the shore. Late 2021-early 2022 (beginning of "post-COVID") was the peak of Disney's wave and eventually it will crash when the recession takes form.

 

[discos]

This is what tech and streaming companies are grappling with now. FAANG thought "the COVID economy" was the economy. They hit their 10-year expectations in less than two years, but it was a temporary blip and now things are going back to 2019. Thus why Facebook, Twitter, and Amazon are laying off armies of employees. Where did Instacart go? How is Uber Eats doing these days?

The peak of the tech wave was in 2020 because of lockdown and now that wave is crashing on the shore. Late 2021-early 2022 (beginning of "post-COVID") was the peak of Disney's wave and eventually it will crash when the recession takes form.

Disney's attendance crash will definitely be evident beginning in 2023. This is the first holiday season at DL & WDW without any pandemic restrictions so for families who were waiting for things to be back to "normal" and the holidays being the only time they can travel, we're nearing the end of the last groups making up for planned trips in 2020 and 2021.

 

[wdwfan22]

Disney's attendance crash will definitely be evident beginning in 2023. This is the first holiday season at DL & WDW without any pandemic restrictions so for families who were waiting for things to be back to "normal" and the holidays being the only time they can travel, we're nearing the end of the last groups making up for planned trips in 2020 and 2021.

Attendance isn’t going to crash anytime soon. It wasn’t before Covid and it’s definitely not now.

 

[discos]

Attendance isn’t going to crash anytime soon. It wasn’t before Covid and it’s definitely not now.

Before Covid, we weren't heading toward a recession. There are all the more reasons for attendance to decline next year, including a decreased value to the park experience/perks but now at an increase in price. So many more families are being priced out and as I said before, we're nearing the end of people taking the trips they kept rescheduling from 2020 and 2021. Maybe crash was the wrong word to use but there will be a substantial decrease of attendance in 2023.

 

[Dan Deesnee]

This is what tech and streaming companies are grappling with now. FAANG thought "the COVID economy" was the economy. They hit their 10-year expectations in less than two years, but it was a temporary blip and now things are going back to 2019. Thus why Facebook, Twitter, and Amazon are laying off armies of employees. Where did Instacart go? How is Uber Eats doing these days?

The peak of the tech wave was in 2020 because of lockdown and now that wave is crashing on the shore. Late 2021-early 2022 (beginning of "post-COVID") was the peak of Disney's wave and eventually it will crash when the recession takes form.

Hats off to you, as you seem to know your stuff. Most people don't even know what FAANG is.

Good points and I agree that Disney is lumped in with this. Inflation, political polarization, increased prices from Disney across the board with perks being taken away is going to drive attendance down for the next few years. The interesting part to me is that by the time things are really starting to improve Universal will be opening Epic Universe. The absolute perfect time to strike as the economy is hating back up.

Disney better throw some capex at the parks and have a few good things lined up for 25/26 or they're going to be in even bigger trouble.

 

[MisterPenguin]

It will not be an issue for Disney execs until someone knocks MK Orlando off its attendance pedestal. Will that happen when Epic opens? Based on what it looks like and the negative backlash hitting Disney Company right now, it very much could.

You're thinking a park with 12 rides will outperform a park with 27?

 

[mattpeto]

Before Covid, we weren't heading toward a recession. There are all the more reasons for attendance to decline next year, including a decreased value to the park experience/perks but now at an increase in price. So many more families are being priced out and as I said before, we're nearing the end of people taking the trips they kept rescheduling from 2020 and 2021. Maybe crash was the wrong word to use but there will be a substantial decrease of attendance in 2023.

Every MNSSHP and MVMCP sold out in 2022. The AH parties are also starting to sell out too.

I’d like to see some course correction too, but it’s hard for me to envision your scenario come true until I see it unfold.

 

[EricsBiscuit]

You're thinking a park with 12 rides will outperform a park with 27?

That’s dishonest. We both know Uni is trying to compete with DHS, DAK and EC. Those three parks are very vulnerable. The average family will spend a day or two at MK, sure. But they will spend less time at the other three and more at Uni.

 

[MisterPenguin]

That’s dishonest. We both know Uni is trying to compete with DHS, DAK and EC. Those three parks are very vulnerable. The average family will spend a day or two at MK, sure. But they will spend less time at the other three and more at Uni.

No. Not dishonest when you go back and see what I was responding to...

"It will not be an issue for Disney execs until someone knocks MK Orlando off its attendance pedestal. Will that happen when Epic opens?"​

I was responding to just that, because just that was raised, not "WDW Orlando."

 

[LSLS]

You're thinking a park with 12 rides will outperform a park with 27?

I mean, I don't think ride count is all that matters. How long has Animal Kingdom and DHS beat the Universal parks despite having like 6 rides compared to 15 or so?

That said (and as excited as I am for Epic), you are fooling yourself if you think Epic is going to compete with MK. Now, I do think it could cause Universal to make some big gains as a whole on WDW, and I think you could see some drops in attendance at WDW, but I don't think it will take enough away from MK.

 

[Disone]

Which is funny because traditionally, you'd assume the opposite, right?

If attendance is going up, they'd be wanting to expand and capitalize on that, giving room for it to keep expanding.

Instead it's been a corporate game of Tetris to figure out the most efficient way to pack more and more people in to the same spaces to make more money without increasing costs and in some cases, probably reducing them.

Now, thanks to G+ and ILL, they actually make more money when capacity is less so there is actual financial incentive to make the experience on the ground less enjoyable.

People have shown a complete willingness to buy into this.

A number of people on this very forum seem to actually be delighted by it.

Unless it gets bad enough that people stop going and it hurts them financially, I don't see any reason they'd change and I'm not sure even then, the correct message will make its way through to decision makers.

My hopes and dreams are all pinned to Epic Universe at this point because it feels like the only thing that really could work is embarrassing them and with management that seems to have little pride or shame in their operations anymore, that's going to take a lot. If Disney keeps trying to bill themselves as THE premium destination experience and someone just down the road has something large and noticeably better and keeps it better maintained, that might force their hand to improve in the next 10-15 years.

But for that, I think Universal would need build the entire park at Wizarding World standards and that feels like a tall order.

Just so spot on it was worth responding to for the sole purpose of ensuring it gets posted more than once.

Fingers crossed that Epic is wakes up Disney.

 

[Purduevian]

That’s dishonest. We both know Uni is trying to compete with DHS, DAK and EC. Those three parks are very vulnerable. The average family will spend a day or two at MK, sure. But they will spend less time at the other three and more at Uni.

Planned a USO trip with my family in February of this year... ended up with 1 day at MK beforehand because we couldn't go to Orlando and not go to Disney. I assume there are families like mine that will do something similar when EPIC opens.

 

[MrPromey]

Planned a USO trip with my family in February of this year... ended up with 1 day at MK beforehand because we couldn't go to Orlando and not go to Disney. I assume there are families like mine that will do something similar when EPIC opens.

Would certainly be interesting if the opening of EU resulted in widening the attendance gap between MK and their other three parks because of this, wouldn't it?

Wonder how many people will opt to go to AK when Disney tries to force them there with park reservations rather than just not bothering with Disney if they can't get into MK on trips like the one you're describing.

Not staying at their resorts, eating at their restaurants, or buying any of their merch, either.

Wonder if anyone at Disney has seriously mulled that scenario.

 

[Grumpy4196]

Every MNSSHP and MVMCP sold out in 2022. The AH parties are also starting to sell out too.

I’d like to see some course correction too, but it’s hard for me to envision your scenario come true until I see it unfold.

Of course the parties are selling out. You don't need Genie+ to ride everything or spend all day waiting in barely moving standby lines.