Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Chi84]

Disneys take…

They don’t get to keep what they don’t a pay to the kids who show the movies and the elective bills…

So instead of cherry picking predictions from 5 months ago…which are not universally right as I already said…we can look at data in post mortem now.

But I know you gave chuckles the defender a laugh…at least

ALL HAIL THE BIGGEST D in Hollywood!!!

Just opinions…can we keep it somewhat current? Because if we have to start gotcha quoting everything…then we’re gonna have to open the can on this “who around here makes excuses?” Utter cow pies that was entertained this weekend.

I can ignore the “amnesia/strategic stupidity” stuff a fair amount…that why I’m not bothering to fight the milens who already making excuses for thunderbolts being the next bomb…
…just wait for it. A prediction. Let’s see how I do?

That’s a lot of explaining.

 

[BrianLo]

Just opinions…can we keep it somewhat current? Because if we have to start gotcha quoting everything…then we’re gonna have to open the can on this “who around here makes excuses?” Utter cow pies that was entertained this weekend.

I agree with you, it’s incredibly obnoxious and I try not to do it, because this is a safe space to actually predict and be wrong. None of us have a crystal ball. I’m not shaming you for being wrong, but more pointing out that you forgot the degree.

But when you make posts like this one…

Like 50% of the comments on this and most movie discussions

Continually trying to bury the leads…

Which are the choices they make for films are entirely out of whack and they are actively making bad business decisions with them in many cases.

And when something makes no money…it’s a fail. All this nonsense about “sometimes it’s not about the money…” and “everything makes money on Disney + (declining subs)” is just fans trying to self soothe themselves with utter CRAP

Am I being too nuanced?

Maybe your memory was also off by a similar factor. You tend to quadruple down on your memories of event rather than what was said.

Your memory on D+ for example is misremembering a conversation that TP was unable (and likely still is) to understand how film units could receive money from customer revenue when the service itself was In the red. It was never really a discussion that every flop was going to be rescued by the service, it was some criticism on the refusal to acknowledge post theatrical IS part of the calculus. Regardless of the financial health of the streaming service… which I won’t pull gotcha’s on that prediction.

We seem to have gotten out of that phase as broadly we’ve established those old calculations on losses were wildly off the mark, so it’s moot. And yes, sometimes a film CAN explode post-theatrically and completely over index its box office. It isn’t common, but it very clearly has happened with Encanto and Elemental.

Not one soul on here thinks Snow White is going to have that moment.

But what you accuse ‘50% of the posters doing’ was largely a three way conversation between TP, Irish and I. Which only you misattribute for several years now until everyone thinks that must have been the position. It wasn’t.

 

[Baloo124]

For example A24 (and others) have made a name for themselves over the last decade

Hereditary still unsettles me, and it's been several years since I saw it. That's a whole other topic, but still...

 

[TP2000]

Overseas box office is in for this past weekend for Snow White, and it seems the overseas market is flatlining as quickly as the American market is. So perhaps the third or fourth estimate downgrade to a $130 Million overseas box office needs to be downgraded again to.... $115 Million?

This box office data is for all nations as of April 13th, with the exception of Serbia, who hasn't reported Snow White box office since late March. If someone in Belgrade could check the connection on the fax machine, please? We'd appreciate it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Overseas box office is in for this past weekend for Snow White, and it seems the overseas market is flatlining as quickly as the American market is. So perhaps the third or fourth dowgrade to a $130 Million overseas box office needs to be downgraded again to.... $115 Million?

This box office data is for all nations as of April 13th, with the exception of Serbia, who hasn't reported Snow White box office since late March. If someone in Belgrade could please check the connection on the fax machine, please? We'd appreciate it.

View attachment 853332

1. Everyone knew it would flop…so we don’t need to talk about it.
2. Snow White is outdated and unpopular…so we don’t need to talk about it
3. Box office doesn’t matter…so we don’t need to talk about
4. I don’t know what any of this means…so no one can accuse me of supporting ANYTHING

 

[erasure fan1]

Nothing he’s said supports your comments here so maybe don’t accuse him of not reading or understanding.

I posted it. He accused me, wrongfully, that I misrepresented what he said. I said he thought the film was bad. And nowhere did I say he praised it. So I'm not misrepresenting anything.

Just to stick my neck out, I don’t think this (Moana 2) is the industry shift you are accusing it of being.

I don't think either of them are, that's my point. But I was given the choice of what one will have more of an impact. And for that I say Moana 2. I don't really think I was saying it would be some shift, just more than Minecraft.

You even concede that studios will emulate Minecraft. The particular circumstances leading to Moana 2 are extremely unlikely to be frequently reproduced and Disney

Of course studios will try to emulate it. That's not the win you think it is because your point is, big ramifications! I said they will try, and fail, and move on. As in, no real ramifications. And there's a good chance Disney takes the same lazy approach of moana 2 with multiple projects in my opinion.

The word “lousy” seems like a pretty big tip off. Oh, and everything else I’ve written on the topic. Whoopsie!

Who cares what you thought you were saying. I said you thought it was bad. That doesn't change that it was an irrelevant post. My response was, and still is, Minecraft was what it was presented as. And that it's made for 6 to teens. Mission accomplished. Moana 2 I expected more. So your point that both should be criticized doesn't matter because I explained, about 5 or 6 times now the difference in my thoughts between the 2 films. So if you take my interpretation or what you say, my opinion doesn't change.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Overseas box office is in for this past weekend for Snow White, and it seems the overseas market is flatlining as quickly as the American market is. So perhaps the third or fourth estimate downgrade to a $130 Million overseas box office needs to be downgraded again to.... $115 Million?

This box office data is for all nations as of April 13th, with the exception of Serbia, who hasn't reported Snow White box office since late March. If someone in Belgrade could please check the connection on the fax machine, please? We'd appreciate it.

View attachment 853332

 

[WoundedDreamer]

I posted it. He accused me, wrongfully, that I misrepresented what he said. I said he thought the film was bad. And nowhere did I say he praised it. So I'm not misrepresenting anything.

I don't think either of them are, that's my point. But I was given the choice of what one will have more of an impact. And for that I say Moana 2. I don't really think I was saying it would be some shift, just more than Minecraft.

Of course studios will try to emulate it. That's not the win you think it is because your point is, big ramifications! I said they will try, and fail, and move on. As in, no real ramifications. And there's a good chance Disney takes the same lazy approach of moana 2 with multiple projects in my opinion.

Who cares what you thought you were saying. I said you thought it was bad. That doesn't change that it was an irrelevant post. My response was, and still is, Minecraft was what it was presented as. And that it's made for 6 to teens. Mission accomplished. Moana 2 I expected more. So your point that both should be criticized doesn't matter because I explained, about 5 or 6 times now the difference in my thoughts between the 2 films. So if you take my interpretation or what you say, my opinion doesn't change.

I think your intuition here is probably right. It's not clear how this Minecraft movie is a uniquely detrimental phenomenon. We've seen video game films before. We've seen films try to cash in on tenuous links to existing products and services before. We've seen fan service before. We've seen attempts to get social media buzz to surround cinema before. We've seen overwhelming amounts of CGI before. Heck, we've seen Jack Black play Jack Black before.

None of this is breaking new ground. The Minecraft Movie did not emerge in a creative vacuum. It represents some of the current excesses of Hollywood and the entertainment landscape, but it's not unprecedented. And it's not entirely clear how other studios can cash in on the results of this film. What lessons do you take from it? Could we see Clash of Clans, Fortnite, and Roblox all see film adaptions? Again, that doesn't seem like new territory.

If anything, this simply reinforces the lesson of the last few years— people will still go to theaters for a film that is a cultural event. Audiences are just much choosier about their theater spending than before. Only two or three movies a year are going to achieve the relevance that propels them into the stratosphere. What plays well on social media and goes viral is likely to lead to big box office numbers.

That's not to say the Minecraft movie is good. I haven't seen it and don't plan to. It's certainly not my cup oh tea.

 

[erasure fan1]

I think you’re misunderstanding me. I was agreeing with him about your misunderstanding his post.

But you responded to my quote where you said, don't accuse him of not reading or understanding. You know, the exact thing he did to me first? I showed what he said, explained when he said, I don't read. And I'm saying to you, don't scold one poster and not the other, it's never a good look.

 

[WoundedDreamer]

I think you’re misunderstanding me. I was agreeing with him about your misunderstanding his post.

I think you're misunderstanding his understanding of your misunderstanding of his understanding of Casper's misunderstanding of his understanding of Casper's original post.

 

[Fox&Hound]

Yea that's a real strange take he has. It's funny because if I was going to call out a film as having "profound ramifications", it would be Moana 2. A movie thrown together from a tv show that deserved much more care than it received, that made a ton of money. That's a bigger problem than a movie that was marketed as silly nonsense.

Completely agree!!! They will learn horrible lessons from Moana 2.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think your intuition here is probably right. It's not clear how this Minecraft movie is a uniquely detrimental phenomenon. We've seen video game films before. We've seen films try to cash in on tenuous links to existing products and services before. We've seen fan service before. We've seen attempts to get social media buzz to surround cinema before. We've seen overwhelming amounts of CGI before. Heck, we've seen Jack Black play Jack Black before.

None of this is breaking new ground. The Minecraft Movie did not emerge in a creative vacuum. It represents some of the current excesses of Hollywood and the entertainment landscape, but it's not unprecedented. And it's not entirely clear how other studios can cash in on the results of this film. What lessons do you take from it? Could we see Clash of Clans, Fortnite, and Roblox all see film adaptions? Again, that doesn't seem like new territory.

If anything, this simply reinforces the lesson of the last few years— people will still go to theaters for a film that is a cultural event. Audiences are just much choosier about their theater spending than before. Only two or three movies a year are going to achieve the relevance that propels them into the stratosphere. What plays well on social media and goes viral is likely to lead to big box office numbers.

That's not to say the Minecraft movie is good. I haven't seen it and don't plan to. It's certainly not my cup oh tea.

In general I agree, but I don't think Minecraft will be a one-off situation. As was discussed previously Hollywood had been extensively trying to mine toy and game brands for movie ideas for the last decade trying to find the next big thing after the resurgence of video game movies. With Sonic, Mario, Barbie, and a bunch of others, Minecraft surely isn't the last.

Besides now that Disney is invested in Epic Games I could see them trying to do a Fortnite movie.

 

[erasure fan1]

In general I agree, but I don't think Minecraft will be a one-off situation.

The Minecraft movie right now isn't a one off. 4 people, who find themselves in a video game world, and meet up with another person in that world, then craziness unfolds. Sound familiar?

As was discussed previously Hollywood had been extensively trying to mine toy and game brands for movie ideas for the last decade trying to find the next big thing after the resurgence of video game movies.

It's been a lot more than a decade. This has been going on since the 80s. That's why I don't think Minecraft is some sign of the Hollywood apocalypse. As I've said, we've seen it before, and we'll see it again. But I'm not sure at the moment what property could have the same outcome being the same quality as Minecraft is. I'm not convinced that the Minecraft sequel if it's the same quality as the first, will see the same results.

Besides now that Disney is invested in Epic Games I could see them trying to do a Fortnite movie.

You might be joking but I would bet on a fortnite movie. I wouldn't bank on Disney making it, but someone is going to do it. I would bet on it.

 

[Disney Irish]

Honestly this "us vs them" mentality that has infiltrated this forum where lines are drawn is getting ridiculous.

 

[Disney Irish]

The Minecraft movie right now isn't a one off. 4 people, who find themselves in a video game world, and meet up with another person in that world, then craziness unfolds. Sound familiar?

Its obviously the same plot playbook as Jumanji. But that wasn't what I meant by one-off. What I meant was that this isn't going to be the last time we see a "meme movie" based on a video game or other popular trend.

It's been a lot more than a decade. This has been going on since the 80s. That's why I don't think Minecraft is some sign of the Hollywood apocalypse. As I've said, we've seen it before, and we'll see it again. But I'm not sure at the moment what property could have the same outcome being the same quality as Minecraft is. I'm not convinced that the Minecraft sequel if it's the same quality as the first, will see the same results.

Difference is that unlike the previous attempts at video game movies this last batch from Mario to Sonic to now Minecraft have actually been successful. All the previous attempts haven't done well overall for various reasons. Even Detective Pikachu while considered a success at the box office didn't do well enough to get an actual sequel (even though claims have been around for awhile of it being in development hell). These 3 have somehow hit different and found success where the others haven't.

So do I think the trend is over now with Minecraft, no not by a long shot. And yes I agree that even if the trend ends now it'll come around again.

You might be joking but I would bet on a fortnite movie. I wouldn't bank on Disney making it, but someone is going to do it. I would bet on it.

I'm sure Disney has at least first look rights to it, I mean after all they are invested in the company and I'm sure they locked up those rights as part of that investment. Also I wasn't really joking, well only partially joking.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

…queue the “I don’t understand what you mean?” In 5…4…3…2…

 

[Disney Irish]

…queue the “I don’t understand what hkj mean?” In 5…4…3…2…

Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan?

 

[Chi84]

Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan?

Who said Google AI is worthless?

 

[Agent H]

…queue the “I don’t understand what hkj mean?” In 5…4…3…2…

Hong Kong jungle?

 

[erasure fan1]

Its obviously the same plot playbook as Jumanji. But that wasn't what I meant by one-off. What I meant was that this isn't going to be the last time we see a "meme movie" based on a video game or other popular trend.

would you consider the emoji movie a meme movie? I know I do. And that was 2017. So it still not a one off in my opinion. Meme movies might be the new parody movies. You have some great ones but most were just not good. But I really don't see it as a threat to Hollywood.

Difference is that unlike the previous attempts at video game movies this last batch from Mario to Sonic to now Minecraft have actually been successful. All the previous attempts haven't done well overall for various reasons. Even Detective Pikachu while considered a success at the box office didn't do well enough to get an actual sequel (even though claims have been around for awhile of it being in development hell). These 3 have somehow hit different and found success where the others haven't.

I compare video game movies/shows to comic book movies/shows. In my opinion, comic book movies were a joke mostly, outside of a few like Superman 78 and batman 89... But the first X-Men really figured it out. Then came spiderman proved it wasn't just a one off. You still had some poop, but it kept getting more reliable.

That's starting to happen now in my opinion with video games. We've had a lot of garbage through the years. With only a handful of passable content. Now we are seeing some success. Mario, sonic, fallout... All really good. In my humble opinion, video games are the new novels or kids books to mine for content. Sure there will still be some slop that does well. But we've seen that in just about all types of film. There's great content to be had. It just needs to be done correctly. Easier said than done I know.