Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I was curious about this, so went off to look at scores on Metacritic, which is of course only one potential way to view the quality of a movie.

Range of scores for Disney's 11 2023 releases: 47-64

Looking at 2019, when Disney set the box office on fire, there were two critically acclaimed movies.
Toy Story 4: 84 (a movie that I curiously see people deride on here all the time)
Avengers: Endgame: 78

Range of scores for Disney's 7 other 2019 releases: 43-64

So did Disney put out a critically acclaimed movie last year? No. But audiences were still going to see the mediocre middle in droves before the pandemic. There was no real reason for Disney to think that they needed to improve the quality of their (all too broken) movie-making process.

1. Recovery from the pandemic is a real thing for box office…however there have been multiple $1.5 billion grossers in the last couple of years.
2. Disney…cause Bob bobs…has made it a pattern of overdoing anything they feel works. So that fatigue was showing back to in 2019 and maybe prior.

If you need proof…look at the steep dives of formerly hot commodities…notable marvel

 

[CinematicFusion]

I don't think the rom com is dead, as last years Anyone But You got 220M and then blew up on digital and streaming.

Romcom isn’t dead but it will never be at the level of When Harry Met Sally... at the cinema. But there will always be a place for it in streaming. Who doesn’t love a great romantic comedy.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Romcom isn’t dead but it will never be at the level of When Harry Met Sally... at the cinema. But there will always be a place for it in streaming. Who doesn’t love a great romantic comedy.

There’s still a market…but I don’t think big box office will be where it lies

 

[CinematicFusion]

There’s still a market…but I don’t think big box office will be where it lies

Agree

 

[brideck]

If you need proof…look at the steep dives of formerly hot commodities…notable marvel

This couldn't possibly because they built in a natural jumping off point? A flawed plan? Absolutely. One that our lord and savior Feige was even responsible for. A dip in movie to movie quality? Not from where I'm sitting.

It didn't help that the pandemic more or less coincided with this exact moment in the glorious five year plan and got a lot of people thinking that the MCU was suddenly nothing more than a bunch of TV shows that you had to watch for homework. In an alternate timeline, it would have been interesting to see how the phase 3 -> 4 transition would have gone down as planned.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This couldn't possibly because they built in a natural jumping off point? A flawed plan? Absolutely. One that our lord and savior Feige was even responsible for. A dip in movie to movie quality? Not from where I'm sitting.

It didn't help that the pandemic more or less coincided with this exact moment in the glorious five year plan and got a lot of people thinking that the MCU was suddenly nothing more than a bunch of TV shows that you had to watch for homework. In an alternate timeline, it would have been interesting to see how the phase 3 -> 4 transition would have gone down as planned.

They offed the two core characters and starting to go too geek with the splinter plots…

That’s not what made MCU…or any movie franchise…successful for the first 10 years…

It was good portrayals and you didn’t have to care at all for what Stan Lee did in 1967…

 

[Disney Irish]

You’re blaming/crediting that can never be quantified. Box office can be…as can a lot of what Disney does.

If you look at many of the threads on this an all Disney forums…it’s a standard stance that is brought in anytime a certain company trips up.

The best was late last summer when the “these movies will eventually be profitable ” narrative was pushed. That was a good one. Star Trek is more believable.

As has been discussed in this thread and other threads box office performance doesn't equate to quality neither good nor bad. So just because the Mouse tripped up at the box office last year doesn't mean it was explicitly and exclusively due to quality issues.

So because you only want to speak in absolutes we're never going to see eye-to-eye on this.

 

[Ghost93]

I think Lightyear and The Little Mermaid were the only Disney movies truly harmed financially by the negative publicity brought on by the anti-Disney/anti-diversity mob.

Soul, Luca, Turning Red, Raya and the Last Dragon and Encanto were all harmed by the pandemic and Disney Plus. In an alternate world where the pandemic never happened, I think all of these movies would have been profitable.

I think The Marvels flopping was Disney paying for the sins of previously bad/mediocre Marvel movies and the film itself being rather weak. I don't think bigotry was the main reason it flopped (although bigots would love to take credit for its failure).

Wish and Strange World were doomed simply for being weak movies. Both could have made slightly more without the anti-Disney crowd trashing them, but not enough to become box office successes.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think Lightyear and The Little Mermaid were the only Disney movies truly harmed financially by the negative publicity brought on by the anti-Disney/anti-diversity mob.

Soul, Luca, Turning Red, Raya and the Last Dragon and Encanto were all harmed by the pandemic and Disney Plus. In an alternate world where the pandemic never happened, I think all of these movies would have been profitable.

I think The Marvels flopping was Disney paying for the sins of previously bad/mediocre Marvel movies and the film itself being rather weak. I don't think bigotry was the main reason it flopped (although bigots would love to take credit for its failure).

Wish and Strange World were doomed simply for being weak movies. Both could have made slightly more without the anti-Disney crowd trashing them, but not enough to become box office successes.

I can agree with a majority of this overall.

 

[TP2000]

Eh, I know you are being sarcastic, and while I don't think it influences movies as much as others, it does exist and has some impact.

I am being sarcastic, but I'm also here laughing my behind off at all this.

You have to admit, the sudden appearance in this thread of "the hate network" that controls the entire planet of Billions of movie-going consumers and convinces them not to go see Disney movies that should have been huge hits if not for the hate network's nefarious work is hilarious.

Perhaps, and hear me out here, people don't go to Disney movies with cringey and preachy stories because people don't want to be preached to about cringey topics? Instead, people want to take their kids to Disney movies, like their parents did before them, that are sweet and wholesome and cutesy and that have singing animals in them? Just guessing.

 

[BrianLo]

Isn't that the bottom line of all this arguing? If lightyear or mermaid or haunted mansion, strange world... Were good movies, the noise doesn't really matter. I think that's the big issue here. People go to the theater and when the movie is just kind of meh or bad, you don't get that word of mouth. Mediocre output just pushes more people to wait for streaming. Good content rises to the top in most situations.

Yes and no, because as you suggest it was very multi factorial. Encanto is an example of how horribly their strategy impacted a good movie.

 

[BrianLo]

Once something is popular, they are suddenly on board while having to perform an amazing display of mental gymnastics to explain why the thing they claim the majority cares about suddenly doesn't matter.

And no just because IO2 is finding success does not mean the "hate network" is debunked.

I think as it pertains to this newly coined hate network as it were. It’s not all about bigotry and that’s only the minority of it. It’s about all the poo Disney found itself in, in a very multifaceted way. Whether one is upset about leadership, direction of their favourite franchise, parks decisions, a hostile takeover, even a political slant. It doesn’t matter. Lots of people found themselves very angry at the company and found the poor film output a way to pile on.

All the posters reassuring us it’s all about the quality fail to see where their rationality gives out. If you find yourself cheering against everything without reason, you are part of the problem. I said this last year when a good portion of people claiming otherwise (that only quality wins out) found themselves giddily dancing on the grave of Elemental’s opening weekend. I kept saying over and over it makes no sense that anyone would be happy about that film. It’s an original pic, with a good hook, well made. It’s exactly the antithesis of The Little Mermaid, which I see many rational (non hateful) reasons to want to see fail. There’s only one poster here who I think has a rational reason to want to see Pixar fail on original fare. I disagree, but I follow their logic. Which is mostly that they’ve never watched almost any (?all) Pixar films and most of their exposure to it is bad product output in Disneyland Resort.

Now we have many of the same people espousing quality, but quietly annoyed Moana 2 and Deadpool are going to do well. But don’t give me the cynical BS about quality of the product or sequels or whatever other excuse. Because they are all very happy the sixth Despicable Me Franchise entrant is also going to hit. There’s no logic in arguing quality at that point, it’s just about irrationally targeting all media output from Disney.

 

[Dranth]

The best was late last summer when the “these movies will eventually be profitable ” narrative was pushed. That was a good one. Star Trek is more believable.

Going to push back on this a bit because that wasn't an across-the-board argument, and you know full well that it is true many times.

In terms of this thread, I remember it mainly applying to TLM which there is a near zero percent chance isn't in the black at this point and Elemental, which was already on the plus side when it left theaters. As for the others, I don't think they get there personally but there is always a chance if they develop some cult status down the road.

I think most, if not all of us agree that companies don't release a movie hoping it will bomb at the box office and then make money later, but it happens. I don't know why someone would want to discount that it happens when we have seen it many times. In fact, few if any movie studios would exist at this point if it didn't happen because most movies lose money at the box office.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Going to push back on this a bit because that wasn't an across-the-board argument, and you know full well that it is true many times.

In terms of this thread, I remember it mainly applying to TLM which there is a near zero percent chance isn't in the black at this point and Elemental, which was already on the plus side when it left theaters. As for the others, I don't think they get there personally but there is always a chance if they develop some cult status down the road.

I think most, if not all of us agree that companies don't release a movie hoping it will bomb at the box office and then make money later, but it happens. I don't know why someone would want to discount that when we have seen it happen many times. In fact, few if any movie studios would exist at this point if it didn't happen because most movies lose money at the box office.

Its goal post moving

Does Disney pump old things for decades to push product? Yes of course

Does that mean all things are successes by default? No.

That’s why the industry reports box office…it’s not my fault. It’s the easiest and most straightforward way to judge success in a competitive field.

Now if we want to complicate it…look at it this way:
What makes more money in the longterm? Beauty and the beast that was widely watched and would have more people recognize it? Or the little mermaid that was not?

Obvious answer. The loser is still “losing”

Life is hard enough as is Without bringing on more headaches

 

[Dranth]

Its goal post moving

Does Disney pump old things for decades to push product? Yes of course

Does that mean all things are successes by default? No.

That’s why the industry reports box office…it’s not my fault. It’s the easiest and most straightforward way to judge success in a competitive field.

Now if we want to complicate it…look at it this way:
What makes more money in the longterm? Beauty and the beast that was widely watched and would have more people recognize it? Or the little mermaid that was not?

Obvious answer. The loser is still “losing”

Life is hard enough as is Without bringing on more headaches

I don't feel like anyone was making the argument that any of those movies where a box office success because they might make some money in the long run. I read it as people were saying that some of them would end up being profitable so those movies weren’t the abject, over the top disaster that many were trying to make them.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

I think as it pertains to this newly coined hate network as it were. It’s not all about bigotry and that’s only the minority of it. It’s about all the poo Disney found itself in, in a very multifaceted way. Whether one is upset about leadership, direction of their favourite franchise, parks decisions, a hostile takeover, even a political slant. It doesn’t matter. Lots of people found themselves very angry at the company and found the poor film output a way to pile on.

All the posters reassuring us it’s all about the quality fail to see where their rationality gives out. If you find yourself cheering against everything without reason, you are part of the problem. I said this last year when a good portion of people claiming otherwise (that only quality wins out) found themselves giddily dancing on the grave of Elemental’s opening weekend. I kept saying over and over it makes no sense that anyone would be happy about that film. It’s an original pic, with a good hook, well made. It’s exactly the antithesis of The Little Mermaid, which I see many rational (non hateful) reasons to want to see fail. There’s only one poster here who I think has a rational reason to want to see Pixar fail on original fare. I disagree, but I follow their logic. Which is mostly that they’ve never watched almost any (?all) Pixar films and most of their exposure to it is bad product output in Disneyland Resort.

Now we have many of the same people espousing quality, but quietly annoyed Moana 2 and Deadpool are going to do well. But don’t give me the cynical BS about quality of the product or sequels or whatever other excuse. Because they are all very happy the sixth Despicable Me Franchise entrant is also going to hit. There’s no logic in arguing quality at that point, it’s just about irrationally targeting all media output from Disney.

Could be that if a movie gets good reviews, good press and good word of mouth, and nothing in the plot that might shy the audience away, people go see it en mass. I don't think it's a conspiracy.

 

[erasure fan1]

It’s about all the poo Disney found itself in, in a very multifaceted way. Whether one is upset about leadership, direction of their favourite franchise, parks decisions, a hostile takeover, even a political slant. It doesn’t matter. Lots of people found themselves very angry at the company and found the poor film output a way to pile on.

I said that a couple years ago. Disney has amazingly found a way to tick off every side of fandom. So it makes it even a harder uphill battle for the box when you have a big string of mediocrity. Especially when the consumer knows they have D+ at home.

All the posters reassuring us it’s all about the quality fail to see where their rationality gives out

It's not all about quality, but as I've said, it sure as heck starts with it. There's plenty of quality that never catches on, we all know this. But with out consistent quality, they are starting at a considerable disadvantage. Like I said above, people have D+ in their pockets so if quality is questionable, they're likely to hold off.

 

[BrianLo]

Could be that if a movie gets good reviews, good press and good word of mouth, and nothing in the plot that might shy the audience away, people go see it en mass. I don't think it's a conspiracy.

Yea, but people around here still start out hoping it’s going to fail upfront? Why is that?

Elemental was the prototypical example of celebratory eagerness about it failing out of the gate. None of which is deserved or in fact earned at the end of the day.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

I said that a couple years ago. Disney has amazingly found a way to tick off every side of fandom. So it makes it even a harder uphill battle for the box when you have a big string of mediocrity. Especially when the consumer knows they have D+ at home.


It's not all about quality, but as I've said, it sure as heck starts with it. There's plenty of quality that never catches on, we all know this. But with out consistent quality, they are starting at a considerable disadvantage. Like I said above, people have D+ in their pockets so if quality is questionable, they're likely to hold off.

I think that's what hurt Elemental.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

Yea, but people around here still start out hoping it’s going to fail upfront? Why is that?

Elemental was the prototypical example of celebratory eagerness about it failing out of the gate. None of which is deserved or in fact earned at the end of the day.

My best guess is some want change at the top and failure is the Lightning Lane to make that happen.