Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Casper Gutman]

The fact that there’s only “something to talk about” when a Disney film flops is incredibly telling. It’s also clearly wrong. For people actually interested in the industry and its box office patterns during a period of unprecedented tumult, every data point is interesting, and Apes is a provocative one. In an unstable market, why did Apes thrive? Why was it a hit while the equally well reviewed Fall Guy failed? Why is the modern Apes franchise such a consistent performer, financially and critically? What does the success of Apes and Dune say about the box office prospects of mature sci-fi? Is this a trend or a fluke? Did the fact that Apes is less immediately associated with the Disney brand contribute to its success, and if so what does that mean? To be glib, why do big monkey movies seem to be the most reliable box office performers in 2024?

Of course, if a posters goal is trolling, not discussion, I understand why these topics might not appeal.

 

[erasure fan1]

Maybe but it’s a bad example as it’s not a property people care about. Come back with an example of people here being silent when a Disney live action remake or new animated movie kills it.

That's the thing, nothing has killed it in the last few years. Guardians did well and was praised pretty heavily. But in no way did it kill it. It's not silent as it's made out to be. If there's not enough discussions on apes, where are all the supporters who have seen it? Nows their chance to discuss while all the haters are so silent.

 

[erasure fan1]

The fact that there’s only “something to talk about” when a Disney film flops is incredibly telling.

Well unfortunately there hasn't been a whole lot of non flops to talk about over the years. So we really don't have a lot of options.

every data point is interesting, and Apes is a provocative one. In an unstable market, why did Apes thrive?

Again, it had a good start. It's a bit early to say thrive. I hope it does, they kept the budget within reason and it still looks good from an effects standpoint. It also doesn't seem to have overspent on the marketing. So that would be a great turnaround if it can get over $450mil to make a profit.

What does the success of Apes and Dune say about the box office prospects of mature sci-fi? Is this a trend or a fluke? Did the fact that Apes is less immediately associated with the Disney brand contribute to its success, and if so what does that mean? To be glib, why do big monkey movies seem to be the most reliable box office performers in 2024?

Now that's a great discussion. Don't you think that would have been a better discussion to start than the passive aggressive jab at the "haters"? And it wasn't even accurate really because just the page before there was examples debunking your claims.

 

[WoundedDreamer]

Had it failed, they’d be VERY concerned.

Shall we go back through the thread and look at all the films that received pages and pages of discussion?

I'm not convinced it's doing very well. All indications are that its final worldwide gross will be in the mid $300 millions. Its inflation-adjusted domestic gross is the weakest in the reboot franchise. Its opening was down film over film in markets around the world. This seems like a franchise that is fading. Its streaming numbers might perform well, but I don't think this is one to get triumphant over from a box office perspective.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes- ~$671 Million
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes- ~$940 Million
War for the Planet of the Apes- ~$620 Million

I think this film is going to struggle to reach $400 Million, but even if it does it will still be performing vastly worse than any other film in the reboot franchise. If someone is looking for another Disney failure, I think this would be a good example. If I were trying to point to an upcoming film that I expect to really energize audiences, it would have to be Deadpool 3. I'd be surprised if that doesn't cross the billion mark.

 

[Stripes]

If I were trying to point to an upcoming film that I expect to really energize audiences, it would have to be Deadpool 3. I'd be surprised if that doesn't cross the billion mark.

It would be the first Deadpool film to cross $1 billion and there’s a lot of overlap between Wolverine and Deadpool fans. I think there’s a lot of fan expectation that Deadpool 3 will cross $1 billion and I’m not sure it’s justified.

Apes is doing well and it’s a great film. It’s a better movie than Fall Guy, in my opinion.

Fall Guy was fun and silly but that’s the end of the good things I have to say about it.

 

[mickEblu]

The fact that there’s only “something to talk about” when a Disney film flops is incredibly telling. It’s also clearly wrong. For people actually interested in the industry and its box office patterns during a period of unprecedented tumult, every data point is interesting, and Apes is a provocative one. In an unstable market, why did Apes thrive? Why was it a hit while the equally well reviewed Fall Guy failed? Why is the modern Apes franchise such a consistent performer, financially and critically? What does the success of Apes and Dune say about the box office prospects of mature sci-fi? Is this a trend or a fluke? Did the fact that Apes is less immediately associated with the Disney brand contribute to its success, and if so what does that mean? To be glib, why do big monkey movies seem to be the most reliable box office performers in 2024?

Of course, if a posters goal is trolling, not discussion, I understand why these topics might not appeal.

I think here’s the disconnect, you’re coming across as someone who is as interested in cinema and the box office as most people here are Disney parks and animation. People here aren’t talking about Apes because they don’t care about it.

 

[WoundedDreamer]

It would be the first Deadpool film to cross $1 billion and there’s a lot of overlap between Wolverine and Deadpool fans. I think there’s a lot of fan expectation that Deadpool 3 will cross $1 billion and I’m not sure it’s justified.

Apes is doing well and it’s a great film. It’s a better movie than Fall Guy, in my opinion.

Fall Guy was fun and silly but that’s the end of the good things I have to say about it.

Inflation adjusted Deadpool grosses look like this:
Deadpool) ~1,023 Million
Deadpool 2) ~981 Million

Deadpool 3, with Hugh Jackman thrown into the mix, should be able to reach or surpass the heights of the original. The only way it doesn't pass a billion is if it drastically underperforms the original films. I'm no Deadpool fan, but I think the numbers and Wolverine are pretty compelling.

Apes has seen better days. I'm wondering if they bring back Serkis/Caesar for another run.

 

[brideck]

If I were trying to point to an upcoming film that I expect to really energize audiences, it would have to be Deadpool 3. I'd be surprised if that doesn't cross the billion mark.

There were 9 billion dollar movies in 2019, Disney had 8 of them. There have only been 6 in the ~3 years since the pandemic with Disney having 2 of them.

If anyone's setting the yardstick of mega success at a billion dollars these days, prepare to be disappointed. We'll see if anything gets there this year at all with how soft the box office has been so far. I'll be happy to be surprised, but I'd guess something like $250m-$300m domestic for Deadpool and Wolverine.

I do agree with your Apes numbers, though. Based on the opening, I'd think $170m-$200m domestic and just a touch over $400m worldwide.

 

[TP2000]

There's usually a lot of chatter in this thread after a Disney film opens, but there's a real silence after Apes. Odd.

The last thing anyone said about it was me, when I posted my usual box office update. I would have posted it on Sunday but I was in Montana celebrating Mother's Day with my family and toasting the fabulous matriarchs we were lucky enough to have guide us to greatness.

But then no one else here said a word about Apes 9 after my comment. Only @Sirwalterraleigh gave it a Like and a comment two days later. Odd.

Did you have a comment about Apes box office you'd like to make too and join us? No one else but me and Sir Raleigh seem to care about it.

Don't worry, I will be updating the box office tomorrow for the Thursday previews and we'll know more about Apes 9 box office and its trajectory to get to a $360 Million (EDIT: Now a $480 Million figure) global box office breakeven point. So far, Apes 9 has weak legs domestically this week after its strong debut weekend. It needs a boost and box office bump this weekend, so I'll watch for that for you.

 

[TP2000]

I believe @Casper Gutman’s point is that the topic most certainly would not have sailed by had the film done badly (or, by the same token, had it been a non-Disney studio profiting from it).

That's a rather passive aggressive way to communicate, don't you think?

Ah, not to worry @Communicora, I was traveling last week out of state, so I was not posting much and only dropping Likes occasionally via weak airport WiFi. I will re-double my efforts to track Apes 9! Nose to the grindstone kind of stuff!

Currently, Apes 9 had what I referred to as "very strong business" its opening weekend, but so far it has had poor legs according to the industry. It needs a box office boost this weekend domestically and overseas to get it back on track to break even at $360 Million from the global box office.

Here's today's chart update domestically from The Numbers...

If anyone wants the box office data and brief commentary I posted a day late on Monday, here it is again...

Hi gang, I hope all of our mothers here had a fabulous weekend!

Here's the adjust box office for the weekend, where Apes 9 did very strong business with $58 Million domestically, and a global total of $129 Million. Here's the Top 10 box office, plus #18 where The First Omen landed this weekend. Apes 9 and The First Omen are the only movies from any Disney studio until Inside Out 2 arrives a month from now.

View attachment 785330
View attachment 785331

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for August 2, 2024

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of August 2, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

That’s never stoped people from posting daily updates on films that didn’t succeed… they have not seen…repeating the stuff day after day

How much trouble am I in for missing a scheduled shift in this thread? Is it a Verbal Warning or 5 Demerits? I forget.

I posted a weekend box office update on Apes 9 a day later than usual on Monday after my sister's family got on the plane, but I just didn't have much time to do much else until the next day. No one else here seemed to care about it though, when I checked in the next day only Sir Raleigh made a casual comment on it.

But I'm back. No doctor's note for my absence, but I'm back, and that's the important thing.

I'm re-doubling my efforts on Apes 9 box office! I can do this, I promise!

 

[TP2000]

One possible answer might be that the old Apes movies were done many years ago. No one remembers them. I watched them when they came out, but after watching some of the old ones on TV recently, I find I am not interested in them anymore. I really thought I would be going to the theatre to watch this one, but I find I just have no interest anymore. It was a very long time ago that those movies were popular. Just another thought on why the silence.

What's funny about that is that coincidentally my YouTube algorithm recommended just a few days ago that I watch a Tonight Show episode where Paul Williams showed up in full Apes drag, pretending he just came from the set and didn't have time to change. Complete with a little musical number and a smoldering Winston.

It was hysterical! Now that's how you build some buzz for your movie. Johnny really though it was funny too. Classic!

 

[TP2000]

I'm not convinced it's doing very well. All indications are that its final worldwide gross will be in the mid $300 millions. Its inflation-adjusted domestic gross is the weakest in the reboot franchise. Its opening was down film over film in markets around the world. This seems like a franchise that is fading. Its streaming numbers might perform well, but I don't think this is one to get triumphant over from a box office perspective.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes- ~$671 Million
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes- ~$940 Million
War for the Planet of the Apes- ~$620 Million

I think this film is going to struggle to reach $400 Million, but even if it does it will still be performing vastly worse than any other film in the reboot franchise. If someone is looking for another Disney failure, I think this would be a good example. If I were trying to point to an upcoming film that I expect to really energize audiences, it would have to be Deadpool 3. I'd be surprised if that doesn't cross the billion mark.

Here's how Apes 9 looks in comparison to those past three Apes movies, adjusted for inflation. Apes 9 has the weakest start of all of them.

Interestingly, The Numbers is now noting the production budget for Apes 9 is $160 Million, whereas a few weeks ago only one source I could find on a fan website pegged it at "around $120 Million", which is how I came up with my $360 Million box office break even point (Production + 50% More for Marketing + 60/40 Box Office Take)

I'll do some Googling to find out if that's the actual production budget the industry sources are using. It would be nice to see Variety or one of the legacy trade papers note that figure of $160 Million. Usually, the Numbers site doesn't put a production budget figure up unless it can really confirm that figure.

Movie Comparison: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2024) vs. Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011) vs. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (2014) vs. War for the Planet of the Apes (2017)

Domestic box office comparison between Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2024) and Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011) and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (2014) and War for the Planet of the Apes (2017)

www.the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

Apes 9 Production Budget Update:

I just Googled, and since its debut weekend for Mother's Day (again, so sorry for my impolite absence) both Variety and Deadline have now reported that the production budget for Apes 9 was $160 Million.

That changes the math, after no reports except a fan website back in April who guesstimated the budget was only $120 Million.

Assuming a traditional marketing spend (and it's had solid TV commercial coverage I noticed), here's how this pencils out for a break even point for Apes 9; it needs roughly $480 Million in global box office to break even. Currently, here's the uphill climb Apes 9 will need to complete on its path to breaking even based on updated global box office through 5/15/24.

Apes 9: $160 Production, $80 Marketing, $43 Domestic B.O. Take, $29 Overseas B.O. Take = $168 Million Loss so far

It's also of note that Apes 9 has already opened in all overseas markets as of last weekend. There are no more foreign countries left to open in for this movie.

‘Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes’ Swings to $72 Million at Overseas Box Office, Mighty $131 Million Globally

"Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes" climbed to $72 million at the international box office, bringing its global tally to $129 million.

variety.com

‘Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes’ Beats Chest To $58M+ Opening — Monday AM Box Office Update

'Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes' is off to a good start with Wednesday and Thursday previews amounting to $6M+. Pic will open to $55M to $56M.

deadline.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I believe @Casper Gutman’s point is that the topic most certainly would not have sailed by had the film done badly (or, by the same token, had it been a non-Disney studio profiting from it).

Your probably right…but I don’t think it necessarily means the same thing to all of us?

 

[TP2000]

I do agree with your Apes numbers, though. Based on the opening, I'd think $170m-$200m domestic and just a touch over $400m worldwide.

Now that I've spent this afternoon going over Apes 9 numbers more thoroughly in my Global Command Center, I'm going to have to disagree with that box office assessment.

Based on the previous Apes movies, and how poor the legs have been for Apes 9 since it opened a week ago, and with a $160 Million production budget and an $80 Million global marketing budget, I would just spitball the math on Apes 9 to end up at about this by the end of June;

$165 Domestic, $185 Overseas, $345 Global Box Office Total = $67 Million Loss for 20th Century Studios on Apes 9

 

[WoundedDreamer]

Here's how Apes 9 looks in comparison to those past three Apes movies, adjusted for inflation. Apes 9 has the weakest start of all of them.

Interestingly, The Numbers is now noting the production budget for Apes 9 is $160 Million, whereas a few weeks ago only one source I could find on a fan website pegged it at "around $120 Million", which is how I came up with my $360 Million box office break even point (Production + 50% More for Marketing + 60/40 Box Office Take)

I'll do some Googling to find out if that's the actual production budget the industry sources are using. It would be nice to see Variety or one of the legacy trade papers note that figure of $160 Million. Usually, the Numbers site doesn't put a production budget figure up unless it can really confirm that figure.

View attachment 785962

The deceleration is something I've been noting too. With these latest domestic dailies, it has now fallen behind each of the previous three films (and that's before inflation adjustment which makes this film's performance comparatively even worse). I usually prefer to use inflation-adjusted data to compare pictures, but it's becoming stark even without the inflation adjustment. This movie is not performing well relative to the preceding films. China's collapse is the most dramatic, but pick an international market and the opening was worse than the previous installment. This is a franchise in decline.

All of this is catastrophic for Disney and Iger. The Apes franchise is one of the most valuable that they acquired in the 20th Century Fox deal. If this franchise fails to generate strong performance, the 20th Century Fox acquisition is looking more and more ridiculous. The same goes for the Marvel properties that Fox brought with it. The Fantastic Four and the mutant films need to meaningfully improve the MCU's performance. If they don't, then the Fox deal was pretty much a dud. They paid tens of billions for the Simpsons, a slice of Hulu, Avatar, and National Geographic.

Now that I've spent this afternoon going over Apes 9 numbers more thoroughly in my Global Command Center, I'm going to have to disagree with that box office assessment.

Based on the previous Apes movies, and how poor the legs have been for Apes 9 since it opened a week ago, and with a $160 Million production budget and an $80 Million global marketing budget, I would just spitball the math on Apes 9 to end up at about this by the end of June;

$165 Domestic, $185 Overseas, $345 Global Box Office Total = $67 Million Loss for 20th Century Studios on Apes 9

I like the Global Command Center's projection! It's around where I'm thinking this film lands. I bet Disney was hoping to make money on this franchise. But compared to many recent Disney box office numbers, a $67 million loss is actually pretty good!

 

[Disney Irish]

I saw Kingdom of Apes last week, it was good. Both critic and audience scores are good overall, so it has at least some positive buzz around it. Will it leg out over the next few weeks, we'll see. The big test will be next week against Furiosa as that would seem to be a similar audience.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

My humble prediction is Deadpool will be strong enough to get them in the black for 2024.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

If anyone's setting the yardstick of mega success at a billion dollars these days, prepare to be disappointed.

Realistic or not, I guarantee you certain movies like Frozen 3 will be expected to hit those kinds of number.