• The new WDWMAGIC iOS app is here!
    Stay up to date with the latest Disney news, photos, and discussions right from your iPhone. The app is free to download and gives you quick access to news articles, forums, photo galleries, park hours, weather and Lightning Lane pricing. Learn More
  • Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
    Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.

Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
The “patterns” here have been overly optimistic and have come in under for years for Bobby’s company…you’re skirting that.

Toy Story should be able to come close…most others have not. Some exceptions. The concept of legs has undergone a lot of changes…few have had them.

Zootopia and Moana 2 being some recent exceptions

For most tentpoles 21 days has been the benchmark

This thread has almost literally been left with the charred carcasses of optimism for 5 years…you can read through it if you want 🥸

Including where I said I thought TS5 would be their big hit/overperformer of 2026…it’s been solid but I thought it would be a bit further at this point.
Click to expand...

21 days is a good benchmark about where something will wind up. It’s not, however, a cliff.

If something is still making good money in week three (179M is good money), there is still a not insignificant amount it will make in weeks 4-12. If something is on life support, there isn’t anything left.

I think it’s that aspect I am trying to help you understand. TS5 isn’t on life support. There’s a normal amount of play left. Probably about 350M or so.
 
BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
For no real reason at all, I want to talk about DreamWorks for a second here. It’s been 17 films and almost a decade since this label has managed to launch a new franchise. There’s been a smattering of doubles in that film mix (Kung Fu Panda 4, Wild Robot, Last Wish); but two of these are founded on the fumes of dwindling franchises. There are a lot of bombs on their filmography that we have all forgotten about. It’s also been that many years and they’ve sort of managed to kill the box office potential of the ones they did have along the way too.

Anyways, it’s just interesting from a company that already has another far more successful studio. It probably speaks to the hidden math. Because if DreamWorks continues to justify their existence as a Studio, the benchmark is lower than typically assumed.
 
Vegas Disney Fan

Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
Starting to look like TS5 is going to be in the billion dollar range, give or take a few million. If it maintains its 50% weekly drop it’s going to be in the $450 million domestic range, international is slightly higher so I don’t think $550 million is out of the question.

I think it’s going to be neck and neck with Super Mario 2 for top box office, in today’s movie environment I'm starting to think a billion may be the new ceiling for all but those few movies that somehow become social events.

Looks like Minions is over before it began… a bit surprising but sequels have been very hit or miss lately so not a shock.
 
brideck

brideck

Well-Known Member
Curious. I'm seeing a lot of random headlines about some sort of satanic panic around Minions and Monsters? If that's a thing that's actually circulating in more conservative religious circles that could certainly suppress some families' willingness to come out for it. (As well as the obvious competition from TS5.) I have no idea what demos normally turn out for these movies from a sociopolitical perspective, so who knows.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Vegas Disney Fan said:
Starting to look like TS5 is going to be in the billion dollar range, give or take a few million. If it maintains its 50% weekly drop it’s going to be in the $450 million domestic range, international is slightly higher so I don’t think $550 million is out of the question.

I think it’s going to be neck and neck with Super Mario 2 for top box office, in today’s movie environment I'm starting to think a billion may be the new ceiling for all but those few movies that somehow become social events.

Looks like Minions is over before it began… a bit surprising but sequels have been very hit or miss lately so not a shock.
Click to expand...
Each time we’ve said a billion is “the Ceiling”…something shatters it at least once a year

But definitely lower since they have robbed themselves with steaming

The story of this year…Beyond the couple of low budget smashes

Is Jack-o…a billion dollars?😱
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
BrianLo said:
21 days is a good benchmark about where something will wind up. It’s not, however, a cliff.

If something is still making good money in week three (179M is good money), there is still a not insignificant amount it will make in weeks 4-12. If something is on life support, there isn’t anything left.

I think it’s that aspect I am trying to help you understand. TS5 isn’t on life support. There’s a normal amount of play left. Probably about 350M or so.
Click to expand...
You’re not “helping me” understand anything…it’s a successful movie but it will end lower than I had thought.

And you know that…but thanks anyway, dad

Now let’s get back to terrible predictions: queue Moana and get your copy of Bob’s book to steer you through these rough waters
 
Vegas Disney Fan

Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
Now let’s get back to terrible predictions:
Click to expand...

I can’t wait to see how the next few weeks play out with the Odyssey, 50% of me thinks it’s gonna be a huge hit and make $900+ million (simply because it’s a Nolan film and the Odyssey), the other 50% thinks it’s going to join the list of all time bombs and lose a couple hundred million.

I don’t think I’ve ever been so baffled by a film I couldn’t even guess before, I usually feel pretty comfortable putting a movie in the “under $250 million”, “$250-500 million”, “$500-750 million”, “$750m - billion”, “billion + range”… , I could honestly see this ending in any of those, if it made less than $250 million I’d be very surprised but not shocked, if it made over a billion I’d also be very surprised but not shocked. I don’t think I’ve ever said that about any other movie.
 
Last edited:
BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
You’re not “helping me” understand anything…it’s a successful movie but it will end lower than I had thought.

And you know that…but thanks anyway, dad

Now let’s get back to terrible predictions: queue Moana and get your copy of Bob’s book to steer you through these rough waters
Click to expand...

I’m not entirely sure I do know. What did you think it would end up at? You have never really said.
 

Register on WDWMAGIC. This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.

Back
Top Bottom