Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Nevermore525]

Even if you counted the whole calendar box office, it means less people have gone to see a movie in 2026 than 2023. More have gone in 2026 vs 2024/2025 but it’s still not showing a “boom” in butts in seats

 

[parksandtravel]

 

[DKampy]

Here's how the cost of a gallon of gas looks to those previous years we used, adjusted for inflation.

2026 = $158 Million weekend, $988 Million 45 day total $3.96 Per Gallon
2025 = $135 Million weekend, $708 Million 45 day total (145% higher than '24) $3.11 Per Gallon
2024 = $55 Million weekend, $266 Million 45 day total (63% lower than '23) $3.68 Per Gallon
2023 = $148 Million weekend, $705 Million 45 day total $3.86 Per Gallon

Let's just round up 15 cents and call it a dollar more per gallon than a year ago, but that is highly dependent on state.

It's averaging $6.10 per gallon in California right now, and two weeks ago when I gassed up for the 6 hour drive home at the Mobil on La Jolla Village Drive (San Diego area) it was $6.65 per gallon, which I remember because I texted that to my brother-in-law as shock and awe.

But in Houston today the price is averaging only $3.99. In Kansas it's $3.60 today.

Go back further, and in April 2022 the average cost of gas in the USA was $5.07 per gallon! And it kept going up before it hit its peak of $5.48 per gallon in June, 2022. I can pull the box office numbers for the first week of May, 2022 if we'd like, but I fear some may claim that was still Covid-impacted box office for states like California and New York.

Monthly U.S. Gasoline Prices (1990-2026)

Interactive monthly chart and 36 years of historical data from 1990 to 2026.

www.macrotrends.net

https://www.gasbuddy.com/home

I filled my tank today at 4.50 a gallon here in Wisconsin…Ithat just might be the most I have ever paid for gas during my automobile driving life

 

[Chi84]

I filled my tank today at 4.50 a gallon here in Wisconsin…Ithat just might be the most I have ever paid for gas during my automobile driving life

Same here. But people don't believe their lying eyes, they believe . . .

 

[DKampy]

Except that isn't what everyone is talking about. Without getting into specifics there is a overall sense of economic uncertainty that is currently happening the last couple of months here in the US. As others have suggested you might be living in a bubble if you don't know what is being talked about.

Also almost all of that "14%" is Avatar and the rest of the holdovers from Holidays 2025, 2026 is actually down 0.6% when you look at just 2026 releases -

View attachment 919680

no reason to debate him on the economy…. It is obvious why he is framing the economy in a positive light…. Just looking at the years when he is discussing gas prices and Seeing the narratives he has been spreading over the years. it’s for reasons we can not discuss here

 

[BrianLo]

Economic uncertainty I think would hit experiences harder than movies. Particularly the cruise arm, I’m not sure if Disney hedges fuel as is common against peers (but the peers are very exposed).

I wouldn’t attribute GDP growth towards affordability. That’s more politically delineated and clear up here. High oil prices help economic and government revenue greatly, but it’s not like the consumer experiences that in any meaningful way on a short term. On a medium term it can start to be Inflationary.


On the flip side Prada 2 did shockingly well, in all markets.

 

[TP2000]

I filled my tank today at 4.50 a gallon here in Wisconsin…Ithat just might be the most I have ever paid for gas during my automobile driving life

Wow! I hope you smiled when you did it! Gas hasn't been that cheap on the West Coast for a long while!

This is always a fun comparison to make on these boards; Disneyland vs. Disney World gas prices.

Currently, the Chevron on Ball Road (and closest to an "on property" Disneyland station, and always crammed with Disneyland visitors, and within fume-wafting distance of Autopia, Presented by Chevron) has 87 octane for $6.20 a gallon today. Hi-Test at that station is currently $6.85. And the Mobil station I filled up at in La Jolla two weeks ago at $6.65 for Hi-Test is now $6.99 today! And no, they did not wash my window even at that price.

Out at Walt Disney World, the big Speedway on World Drive is only charging $4.33 a gallon for 87 octane today.

 

[TP2000]

no reason to debate him on the economy…. It is obvious why he is framing the economy in a positive light…. Just looking at the years when he is discussing gas prices and Seeing the narratives he has been spreading over the years. it’s for reasons we can not discuss here

It's because not until The Devil Wears Prada 2 didn't do Barbie numbers, and instead posted a merely respectable $77 Million Domestic box office on its opening weekend, had we heard a whiff in this thread that "The Economy" was somehow suppressing domestic box office from coast to coast for major movies with huge marketing campaigns.

Not a peep here on "The Economy" when Super Mario Bros. racked up $400+ Million in a few weeks, nor when Project Hail Mary became a breakout hit with very strong legs in April and racked up $300+ Million, nor when Michael debuted last weekend to a surprise $97 Million opening weekend.

But when The Devil Wears Prada 2 doesn't become a big blockbuster and gets a merely respectable $77 Million, suddenly we're in the depths of The Great Depression and people are now too poor to afford movie tickets? And yet I'm the one paying almost 7 bucks a gallon for Hi-Test in La Jolla! I'm the victim here!, not you people!

I don't buy the economy excuse for Devil 2's box office. And the current US economic data doesn't back it up.

It's basic demographics for that type of movie holding Devil 2 back from Barbie-esque numbers, not The Economy.

 

[TP2000]

On the flip side Prada 2 did shockingly well, in all markets.

That's the best part! This movie is already on the cusp of breaking even during its second weekend in theaters!

Interestingly, some folks over in the dedicated Devil 2 thread were expecting Barbie type numbers. And I immediately thought they were nuts; my famous Pop Culture Radar at work, you know. Then that expectation of at least $100 Million opening weekend, if not quite a $150+ Million Barbie type opening weekend seemed to seep into this thread too for The Devil Wears Prada 2. But I just didn't buy it, it just seemed like it was too limited in its demographic reach.

But suddenly, out of nowhere, the thought that The Economy was to blame for this past weekend's box office debut for The Devil Wears Prada 2 was introduced.

Seems to be carried by the international markets for sure, domestic was not as strong as I thought it would be.

What happened domestic audience??

Americans are pretty down on the economy right now, so that could be affecting the domestic BO.

Huh? The current economic data for the US, or the current box office data for the US, does not support a theory that people are suddenly holding back on buying movie tickets. If anything, the Spring of '26 is going like gangbusters at the American Box Office compared to the past several years, as the data clearly shows.

I've already bitched too much about nearly 7 bucks a gallon in La Jolla, while others humblebrag about being shocked by $4.30 a gallon in their Midwest hamlet. But that's not why The Devil Wears Prada 2 got $77 Million domestic in its opening weekend.

It's because there aren't enough Gays going to the movies! Now that's an accusation I'm fully willing to accept. I should have gone to see The Devil Wears Prada 2 with those old queens I know in Rancho Mirage. It would have helped a little.

 

[Disney Irish]

That's the best part! This movie is already on the cusp of breaking even during its second weekend in theaters!

Interestingly, some folks over in the dedicated Devil 2 thread were expecting Barbie type numbers. And I immediately thought they were nuts; my famous Pop Culture Radar at work, you know. Then that expectation of at least $100 Million opening weekend, if not quite a $150+ Million Barbie type opening weekend seemed to seep into this thread too for The Devil Wears Prada 2. But I just didn't buy it, it just seemed like it was too limited in its demographic reach.

But suddenly, out of nowhere, the thought that The Economy was to blame for this past weekend's box office debut for The Devil Wears Prada 2 was introduced.




Huh? The current economic data for the US, or the current box office data for the US, does not support a theory that people are suddenly holding back on buying movie tickets. If anything, the Spring of '26 is going like gangbusters at the American Box Office compared to the past several years, as the data clearly shows.

I've already bitched too much about nearly 7 bucks a gallon in La Jolla, while others humblebrag about being shocked by $4.30 a gallon in their Midwest hamlet. But that's not why The Devil Wears Prada 2 got $77 Million domestic in its opening weekend.

It's because there aren't enough Gays going to the movies! Now that's an accusation I'm fully willing to accept. I should have gone to see The Devil Wears Prada 2 with those old queens I know in Rancho Mirage. It would have helped a little.

Since as far as I’m aware no one here is an economist by trade, just like they aren’t a professional box office analysis, if some want to feel there is economic uncertainty in the US that could be holding back the domestic box office then let them. You have your opinion, they have theirs.

We’ve seen for the last 5-6 years how several posters were claiming that the box office is about to be back to pre-pandemic levels any day now, when I was saying “hold on, wait a minute, no the numbers don’t actually indicate that, we can see looking at in-year releases it’s actually flat or down”, just like I showed you when you kept touting it’s up 14% when that is only because of 2025 holdovers and it’s actually down 0.6% when you remove those. There are many reason why it’s never likely to get back to pre-pandemic levels, and while 2026 at first glance looked like it could be better than most years post-pandemic, economic headwinds have popped up that make it very possible that it’s going to be another flat or down year-over-year box office. But we’ll have to wait and see what the in-year release box office totals are in December to see where it actually ends up.

In the end Prada 2 did good domestic and really well overseas. I don’t think Disney is unhappy with the results, in fact I’m guessing they are extremely pleased. And the coming weeks could see a boost in domestic numbers as there is no good solid “mom” movie this weekend for Mother’s Day and nothing the following week, so will likely have good holds both weekends.

Also it’s rather insulting that you think Prada’s demographic is only older women and gay men. If the international numbers are any indication it’s that it’s well liked by all demographics.

 

[coffeefan]

That's the best part! This movie is already on the cusp of breaking even during its second weekend in theaters!

Interestingly, some folks over in the dedicated Devil 2 thread were expecting Barbie type numbers. And I immediately thought they were nuts; my famous Pop Culture Radar at work, you know. Then that expectation of at least $100 Million opening weekend, if not quite a $150+ Million Barbie type opening weekend seemed to seep into this thread too for The Devil Wears Prada 2. But I just didn't buy it, it just seemed like it was too limited in its demographic reach.

But suddenly, out of nowhere, the thought that The Economy was to blame for this past weekend's box office debut for The Devil Wears Prada 2 was introduced.

Huh? The current economic data for the US, or the current box office data for the US, does not support a theory that people are suddenly holding back on buying movie tickets. If anything, the Spring of '26 is going like gangbusters at the American Box Office compared to the past several years, as the data clearly shows.

I've already bitched too much about nearly 7 bucks a gallon in La Jolla, while others humblebrag about being shocked by $4.30 a gallon in their Midwest hamlet. But that's not why The Devil Wears Prada 2 got $77 Million domestic in its opening weekend.

It's because there aren't enough Gays going to the movies! Now that's an accusation I'm fully willing to accept. I should have gone to see The Devil Wears Prada 2 with those old queens I know in Rancho Mirage. It would have helped a little.

This is less about Prada, which is doing great so far. It’s more of a reflective observation, as one week of data isn't sufficient to form a claim. But I suppose any hint of reality regarding the economy for the proletariat is a touchy subject? I get it - I bet it's exhausting having to spin the New Golden Age of higher prices at so many social events. My social battery would be sensitive too if I had such a task.

 

[easyrowrdw]

How am I not seeing this? Are the blinky lights on my console not working properly? Because 2026 has had modest growth at the domestic box office compared to previous winter/early springs.

2026 Domestic Box Office through April is 14% higher than last year.

Here's the cumulative domestic box office for the first 4 months of each year since Covid:

2026: Jan $620, Feb $487, Mar $669, Apr $842 = $2.62 Billion Domestic Box Office, +14% Year Prior
2025: Jan $545, Feb $480, Mar $398, Apr $875 = $2.29 Billion Domestic Box Office, +13% Year Prior
2024: Jan $495, Feb $364, Mar $749, Apr $430 = $2.03 Billion Domestic Box Office, -22% Year Prior
2023: Jan $585, Feb $500, Mar $638, Apr $900 = $2.62 Billion Domestic Box Office

April Box Office

www.boxofficemojo.com

2023 and this year are interesting to me because of the sequels. Fire & Ash was good but pulled in $100 million less in 2026 than Way of Water did in 2023. And you have the two Mario movies in April of their years, with the original more than $150 million ahead (so far) of the sequel. But the overall numbers are the same. 2026 might just have a deeper bench of solid movies. We’ll see how the summer goes.

 

[Ghost93]

I think with Greta Gerwig's Narnia moving to February 2027, Avengers Doomsday should take the Thanksgiving slot so they can have a few weeks of exclusive IMAX screens. Right now, Dune Part 3 is taking up all of the IMAX screens on Dec. 18.

Hexed can be moved to Avengers Doomsday's Dec. 18 release as it's better counter-programming for Dune than Avengers, with far less audience overlap. I think this move would help the box office for all three films.

 

[TP2000]

This is less about Prada, which is doing great so far. It’s more of a reflective observation, as one week of data isn't sufficient to form a claim.

It was actually just me reacting to this comment you made, suddenly blaming The Economy for domestic box office results when Devil 2 came in a bit under its overblown estimates some here were touting last week.

What happened domestic audience??

Will have to see if this is a trend with other films. Americans are pretty down on the economy right now, so that could be affecting the domestic BO.

It's not The Economy (insert concerned NPR voice). It's demographic reality for a movie with a limited demographic.

I was as surprised as anyone when the word "Barbie" was being thrown around on this forum in discussing the box office potential for The Devil Wears Prada 2 just a few days before it opened. I knew it wasn't a Barbie.

But at least it's going to be profitable! Burbank needed that.

But I suppose any hint of reality regarding the economy for the proletariat is a touchy subject? I get it - I bet it's exhausting having to spin the New Golden Age of higher prices at so many social events. My social battery would be sensitive too if I had such a task.

Oh, for gosh sakes, knock it off Karl. "Proletariat"??? The economic data speaks for itself.

But do you need to see my Costco card? I've been shopping at Costco since it was called Price Club!

 

[TP2000]

2023 and this year are interesting to me because of the sequels. Fire & Ash was good but pulled in $100 million less in 2026 than Way of Water did in 2023. And you have the two Mario movies in April of their years, with the original more than $150 million ahead (so far) of the sequel. But the overall numbers are the same. 2026 might just have a deeper bench of solid movies. We’ll see how the summer goes.

All very true. But I think there's almost always a diminishing return on sequels, isn't there? It's hard to think of a sequel that did better than the originals, except maybe that second Indiana Jones in the early 80's, and... I'm sure someone here knows more examples.

Still, a slate of sequels matched up against their successful originals usually shows the Law of Diminishing Returns.

And yet, Super Mario 2 just did $900 Million globally on a cheap budget, so you know they are thrilled in Universal City!

Great point about this summer! I have absolutely no idea what the big movies are coming out this summer, so I'm going to need to go look into that this week. I just have no knowledge of some of these SciFi things coming out. I heard at my barber shop last week the young guys talking down about the new Star Wars movie, and that's about it.

Is there buzz for anything? It's already May! I need to go find out what the buzz is, cause I'm not sensing it yet.

 

[Disney Analyst]

It was actually just me reacting to this comment you made, suddenly blaming The Economy for domestic box office results when Devil 2 came in a bit under its overblown estimates some here were touting last week.




It's not The Economy (insert concerned NPR voice). It's demographic reality for a movie with a limited demographic.

I was as surprised as anyone when the word "Barbie" was being thrown around on this forum in discussing the box office potential for The Devil Wears Prada 2 just a few days before it opened. I knew it wasn't a Barbie.

But at least it's going to be profitable! Burbank needed that.



Oh, for gosh sakes, knock it off Karl. "Proletariat"??? The economic data speaks for itself.

But do you need to see my Costco card? I've been shopping at Costco since it was called Price Club!

Just to pat myself on the back a little…

It did actually land very close to Barbie’s numbers (internationally), a difference of like… 2 million between both their opening weekends.

But clearly Barbie has greater domestic appeal? Or what happened to all the women and gays who turned out for Barbie but not Prada 2?

 

[TP2000]

Just to pat myself on the back a little…

It did actually land very close to Barbie’s numbers (internationally), a difference of like… 2 million between both their opening weekends.

You deserve that! Devil 2 had incredible overseas appeal. I'm still baffled by it.

The original did extremely well overseas in 2006 too, but I had no idea until I looked into that a few days ago. Who knew?

But clearly Barbie has greater domestic appeal? Or what happened to all the women and gays who turned out for Barbie but not Prada 2?

I think all of The Gays and the ladies turned out, except for me. I was invited to go with a fun group, but I declined because I didn't want to go away for the weekend to Rancho Mirage so shortly after I just returned home from San Diego. So there's a missing $15 in box office and a full tub of popcorn sitting at the snack bar that I'm responsible for. Oops!

But there clearly weren't enough domestic demographics outside of those two groups showing up for Devil 2, especially compared to Barbie. There was a minor kerfuffle on Social Media last week about Anne Hathaway saying rather cringey virtue signaling stuff at the premiere, but I don't get the sense there was any major Anti-Woke backlash that would impact box office like with Rachel Zegler's Snow White.

Miss Zegler has perfected that box office killing talent so exclusively, it's hard for any other actor or actress to compare now.

Some news outlets do a deeper dive into demographics after a week or two, so later tonight I'll have to go see what I can find on Devil 2 demographic data if someone else doesn't do that first. Or if it's even available yet this early in the week.

 

[celluloid]

The awesome news is how many films theatrically are not obvious or major bombs. So many have been succesful across the board.

 

[TP2000]

The awesome news is how many films theatrically are not obvious or major bombs. So many have been succesful across the board.

No kidding! This forum in the spring and summer of 2024 was an absolute train wreck of Burbank bombs and disasters.

But the box office overall has turned around nicely this year so far, and is doing well comparatively to recent years.

 

[celluloid]

No kidding! This forum in the spring and summer of 2024 was an absolute train wreck of Burbank bombs and disasters.

But the box office overall has turned around nicely this year so far, and is doing well comparatively to recent years.

And more particularly to look at it, is that there are often hits with lower or moderate budgets by comparisons. So they like the ROI they are making on theaters before they even surrender it to streaming services and home video purchases.