Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[celluloid]

The box office has boomed in general in the last 20 years in terms of theaters in overseas markets. Particularly China.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It's not something that is tracked on kitchen refrigerators, certainly. But it's the gold standard for tracking how an economy is performing monthly, and how much it is growing quarter to quarter. Or, in the case of France and Germany, not growing.

A strong GDP number is like the speedometer on your car, the higher it goes the better you're doing.

USA = 2.0% Growth, 4.3% Unemployment
UK = 0.5% Growth, 5.2% Unemployment
France = 0.0% (Zero) Growth, 7.7% Unemployment
Germany = 0.3% Growth, 6.3% Unemployment



What are you comparing the Spring '26 box office to then? If not Spring '25? Or Spring '24?

Because the box office data clearly show a strong 2026 so far and a higher box office this past weekend compared to prior years.

2026 = $158 Million weekend, $988 Million 45 day total (18% higher than '25)
2025 = $135 Million weekend, $708 Million 45 day total (145% higher than '24)
2024 = $55 Million weekend, $266 Million 45 day total (63% lower than '23)
2023 = $148 Million weekend, $705 Million 45 day total

Over in the dedicated Devil Wears Prada 2 thread, there were some folks a few weeks ago who were throwing around the words "Barbie" and "big blockbuster" for their expectations on Devil 2, and I thought to myself "Uh, gang, I don't know that this movie has the demographic interest to support that kind of box office".

You weren't thinking Devil 2 would do Barbie numbers ($1.45 Billion), or even anything close to a Billion, were you?

Things change, bro…

The stock market USED to be a reflection of profit and growth…now it has nothing to do with that. It’s “perception” and “potential”

When you’re talking about basic products and costs…macro Econ measurements mean about squat

 

[TP2000]

I assume most American families have to drive to a theater. That’s becoming more and more expensive.

Here's how the cost of a gallon of gas looks to those previous years we used, adjusted for inflation.

2026 = $158 Million weekend, $988 Million 45 day total $3.96 Per Gallon
2025 = $135 Million weekend, $708 Million 45 day total (145% higher than '24) $3.11 Per Gallon
2024 = $55 Million weekend, $266 Million 45 day total (63% lower than '23) $3.68 Per Gallon
2023 = $148 Million weekend, $705 Million 45 day total $3.86 Per Gallon

Let's just round up 15 cents and call it a dollar more per gallon than a year ago, but that is highly dependent on state.

It's averaging $6.10 per gallon in California right now, and two weeks ago when I gassed up for the 6 hour drive home at the Mobil on La Jolla Village Drive (San Diego area) it was $6.65 per gallon, which I remember because I texted that to my brother-in-law as shock and awe.

But in Houston today the price is averaging only $3.99. In Kansas it's $3.60 today.

Go back further, and in April 2022 the average cost of gas in the USA was $5.07 per gallon! And it kept going up before it hit its peak of $5.48 per gallon in June, 2022. I can pull the box office numbers for the first week of May, 2022 if we'd like, but I fear some may claim that was still Covid-impacted box office for states like California and New York.

Monthly U.S. Gasoline Prices (1990-2026)

Interactive monthly chart and 36 years of historical data from 1990 to 2026.

www.macrotrends.net

https://www.gasbuddy.com/home

 

[TP2000]

Things change, bro…

The stock market USED to be a reflection of profit and growth…now it has nothing to do with that. It’s “perception” and “potential”

But we weren't discussing the stock market at all, in any country. We were discussing GDP as a basic (and the most elemental) way to explain an economy's current strength or weakness.

We could use the stock market, the NYSE or the Dow Jones as a barometer year to year, but that seems like a financial metric not well aligned with box office results from middle class Americans at a suburban multiplex. The stock market impacts bigger ticket items like cars, appliances, homes, etc. But we're talking $15 movie tickets and overpriced popcorn.

I thought GDP and unemployment rates were pretty basic and effective at describing the current performance of the individual economies who most impact global box office, or lack thereof.

I don't think "the economy" is to blame because The Devil Wears Prada 2 had a $77 Million opening weekend instead of a Barbie-esque $150 Million, and the latest economic data obviously backs that up.

I think The Devil Wears Prada 2 had a $77 Million opening because it was widely anticipated by a relatively small segment of the US movie audience demographic; women aged 30 to 50, and The Gays. Honestly, it's surprising it did as well as it did if you think about it!

 

[TP2000]

Pretty weak year at the box office so far.

How am I not seeing this? Are the blinky lights on my console not working properly? Because 2026 has had modest growth at the domestic box office compared to previous winter/early springs.

2026 Domestic Box Office through April is 14% higher than last year.

Here's the cumulative domestic box office for the first 4 months of each year since Covid:

2026: Jan $620, Feb $487, Mar $669, Apr $842 = $2.62 Billion Domestic Box Office, +14% Year Prior
2025: Jan $545, Feb $480, Mar $398, Apr $875 = $2.29 Billion Domestic Box Office, +13% Year Prior
2024: Jan $495, Feb $364, Mar $749, Apr $430 = $2.03 Billion Domestic Box Office, -22% Year Prior
2023: Jan $585, Feb $500, Mar $638, Apr $900 = $2.62 Billion Domestic Box Office

April Box Office

www.boxofficemojo.com

 

[Disney Irish]

But we weren't discussing the stock market at all, in any country. We were discussing GDP as a basic (and the most elemental) way to explain an economy's current strength or weakness.

We could use the stock market, the NYSE or the Dow Jones as a barometer year to year, but that seems like a financial metric not well aligned with box office results from middle class Americans at a suburban multiplex. The stock market impacts bigger ticket items like cars, appliances, homes, etc. But we're talking $15 movie tickets and overpriced popcorn.

I thought GDP and unemployment rates were pretty basic and effective at describing the current performance of the individual economies who most impact global box office, or lack thereof.

I don't think "the economy" is to blame because The Devil Wears Prada 2 had a $77 Million opening weekend instead of a Barbie-esque $150 Million, and the latest economic data obviously backs that up.

I think The Devil Wears Prada 2 had a $77 Million opening because it was widely anticipated by a relatively small segment of the US movie audience demographic; women aged 30 to 50, and The Gays. Honestly, it's surprising it did as well as it did if you think about it!

Actually "we" weren't talking about the GDP, you injected it into the conversation because someone dared to suggest that economic uncertainty might be a reason why domestic numbers have been soft and wondered what will happen in the coming weeks. Its a valid point.

Because believe it or not entertainment is one of the first sectors hit in times of economic uncertainty here in the US, which doesn't show up in the GDP numbers.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

How am I not seeing this? Are the blinky lights on my console not working properly? Because 2026 has had modest growth at the domestic box office compared to previous winter/early springs.

2026 Domestic Box Office through April is 14% higher than last year.

Here's the cumulative domestic box office for the first 4 months of each year since Covid:

2026: Jan $620, Feb $487, Mar $669, Apr $842 = $2.62 Billion Domestic Box Office, +14% Year Prior
2025: Jan $545, Feb $480, Mar $398, Apr $875 = $2.29 Billion Domestic Box Office, +13% Year Prior
2024: Jan $495, Feb $364, Mar $749, Apr $430 = $2.03 Billion Domestic Box Office, -22% Year Prior
2023: Jan $585, Feb $500, Mar $638, Apr $900 = $2.62 Billion Domestic Box Office

April Box Office

www.boxofficemojo.com

Sorry…I meant really not a lot of blockbusters so far…


Were the last couple of years exceptionally weak?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

But we weren't discussing the stock market at all, in any country. We were discussing GDP as a basic (and the most elemental) way to explain an economy's current strength or weakness.

We could use the stock market, the NYSE or the Dow Jones as a barometer year to year, but that seems like a financial metric not well aligned with box office results from middle class Americans at a suburban multiplex. The stock market impacts bigger ticket items like cars, appliances, homes, etc. But we're talking $15 movie tickets and overpriced popcorn.

I thought GDP and unemployment rates were pretty basic and effective at describing the current performance of the individual economies who most impact global box office, or lack thereof.

I don't think "the economy" is to blame because The Devil Wears Prada 2 had a $77 Million opening weekend instead of a Barbie-esque $150 Million, and the latest economic data obviously backs that up.

I think The Devil Wears Prada 2 had a $77 Million opening because it was widely anticipated by a relatively small segment of the US movie audience demographic; women aged 30 to 50, and The Gays. Honestly, it's surprising it did as well as it did if you think about it!

The feel on the street…basically everywhere…is the costs rise daily and you can’t help but noticing for MOST of the US.

GDP just doesn’t put that on good terms.

You might be in a bubble/enclave?

 

[TP2000]

Actually "we" weren't talking about the GDP, you injected it into the conversation because someone dared to suggest that economic uncertainty might be a reason why domestic numbers have been soft and wondered what will happen in the coming weeks. Its a valid point.

But it doesn't appear that Americans have scaled back movie ticket purchases compared to prior years.

In fact, just the opposite has happened, and movie ticket sales have increased 14% this year compared to last year at this time. The GDP numbers are solid, and show a US economy doing well overall in broad terms. Especially compared to Europe, where things are particularly bleak for France and Germany and have been for more than a year now.

2026: Jan $620, Feb $487, Mar $669, Apr $842 = $2.62 Billion Domestic Box Office, +14% Year Prior
2025: Jan $545, Feb $480, Mar $398, Apr $875 = $2.29 Billion Domestic Box Office, +13% Year Prior
2024: Jan $495, Feb $364, Mar $749, Apr $430 = $2.03 Billion Domestic Box Office, -22% Year Prior
2023: Jan $585, Feb $500, Mar $638, Apr $900 = $2.62 Billion Domestic Box Office

Still, ticket sales for The Devil Wears Prada 2 were very strong in Europe. So I'm of the belief that "the economy" is not why Devil 2 had a $77 Million opening in the USA. I think it got $77 Million opening weekend because that's the number of Americans who actually wanted to see it, demographically.

Which makes sense when you know who the demo is for that movie.

 

[Disney Irish]

But it doesn't appear that Americans have scaled back movie ticket purchases compared to prior years.

In fact, just the opposite has happened, and movie ticket sales have increased 14% this year compared to last year at this time. The GDP numbers are solid, and show a US economy doing well overall in broad terms. Especially compared to Europe, where things are particularly bleak for France and Germany and have been for more than a year now.

2026: Jan $620, Feb $487, Mar $669, Apr $842 = $2.62 Billion Domestic Box Office, +14% Year Prior
2025: Jan $545, Feb $480, Mar $398, Apr $875 = $2.29 Billion Domestic Box Office, +13% Year Prior
2024: Jan $495, Feb $364, Mar $749, Apr $430 = $2.03 Billion Domestic Box Office, -22% Year Prior
2023: Jan $585, Feb $500, Mar $638, Apr $900 = $2.62 Billion Domestic Box Office

Still, ticket sales for The Devil Wears Prada 2 were very strong in Europe. So I'm of the belief that "the economy" is not why Devil 2 had a $77 Million opening in the USA. I think it got $77 Million opening weekend because that's the number of Americans who actually wanted to see it, demographically.

Which makes sense when you know who the demo is for that movie.

Except that isn't what everyone is talking about. Without getting into specifics there is a overall sense of economic uncertainty that is currently happening the last couple of months here in the US. As others have suggested you might be living in a bubble if you don't know what is being talked about.

Also almost all of that "14%" is Avatar and the rest of the holdovers from Holidays 2025, 2026 is actually down 0.6% when you look at just 2026 releases -

 

[TP2000]

The feel on the street…basically everywhere…is the costs rise daily and you can’t help but noticing for MOST of the US.

GDP just doesn’t put that on good terms.

You might be in a bubble/enclave?

Could be. I paid $4.85 for Premium at Costco this weekend, but Utah has to depend on California for gasoline and California now imports gas from overseas instead of pumping it out of the ground in Bakersfield. Dumb economic move, there. Still, at least gas here is at least $2.00 less than Southern California, almost all due to lower taxes in Utah.

Utah has a great economy, and most recent GDP growth rate of 2.7%. That's one of the strongest in the USA, and the Midwest and South are also doing very well right now; Texas at 2.4% growth, Florida 2.7%, Tennessee 2.2% (and just stole Starbucks HQ from Seattle!), Kansas 2.9%, South Dakota 2.9%, etc.

The weakest areas right now are the Pacific Northwest, and any suburb within a 60 minute drive of Washington DC (VA, MD, DE).

I get it. Gas spiked by almost $2 a gallon the last 60 days. But I can't find any economic data other than "feels" that explains why The Devil Wears Prada 2 just had a $77 Million opening weekend instead of a Barbie-esque $150 Million.

Great news for Burbank though is that Devil 2 will still make a tidy profit for them! At this point, it's just a question of how much?

 

[TP2000]

Except that isn't what everyone is talking about. Without getting into specifics there is a overall sense of economic uncertainty that is currently happening the last couple of months here in the US. As others have suggested you might be living in a bubble if you don't know what is being talked about.

So this "economic uncertainty" only applies to The Devil Wears Prada 2? Just that one, for some reason?

Because several other movies have done $300 to $400 Million at the domestic box office in the past month.

And during a quarter when overall domestic box office is currently sitting 14% higher than the previous year, which was a 13% higher total than the year prior. The domestic box office has done better so far this year compared to recent years.

2026: Jan $620, Feb $487, Mar $669, Apr $842 = $2.62 Billion Domestic Box Office, +14% Year Prior
2025: Jan $545, Feb $480, Mar $398, Apr $875 = $2.29 Billion Domestic Box Office, +13% Year Prior
2024: Jan $495, Feb $364, Mar $749, Apr $430 = $2.03 Billion Domestic Box Office, -22% Year Prior
2023: Jan $585, Feb $500, Mar $638, Apr $900 = $2.62 Billion Domestic Box Office

 

[Disney Irish]

So this "economic uncertainty" only applies to The Devil Wears Prada 2? Just that one, for some reason?

Because several other movies have done $300 to $400 Million at the domestic box office in the past month.

View attachment 919682

And during a quarter when overall domestic box office is currently sitting 14% higher than the previous year, which was a 13% higher total than the year prior. The domestic box office has done better so far this year compared to recent years.

2026: Jan $620, Feb $487, Mar $669, Apr $842 = $2.62 Billion Domestic Box Office, +14% Year Prior
2025: Jan $545, Feb $480, Mar $398, Apr $875 = $2.29 Billion Domestic Box Office, +13% Year Prior
2024: Jan $495, Feb $364, Mar $749, Apr $430 = $2.03 Billion Domestic Box Office, -22% Year Prior
2023: Jan $585, Feb $500, Mar $638, Apr $900 = $2.62 Billion Domestic Box Office

I don't think anyone pointed to JUST Prada 2, I believe it was a general statement about the domestic box office so far of 2026.

Also again when you take away the prior years releases and just look at ONLY same year releases 2026 is DOWN (or effectively flat) 0.6% compared to the same period in 2025. This is how to properly do a year-to-year comparison, looking at same year releases -

Domestic Yearly Box Office

www.boxofficemojo.com

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Actually "we" weren't talking about the GDP, you injected it into the conversation because someone dared to suggest that economic uncertainty might be a reason why domestic numbers have been soft and wondered what will happen in the coming weeks. Its a valid point.

Because believe it or not entertainment is one of the first sectors hit in times of economic uncertainty here in the US, which doesn't show up in the GDP numbers.

I feel like movies tend to always be a relatively affordable entertainment option, regardless of any economic challenges people are facing.

Disney in particular is likely more worried about the cost of travel, and how that could impact theme parks.

 

[Disney Irish]

I feel like movies tend to always be a relatively affordable entertainment option, regardless of any economic challenges people are facing.

Disney in particular is likely more worried about the cost of travel, and how that could impact theme parks.

It depends on the movie, format, personal budget, and a bunch of other factors that determine if its "affordable" or not. I mean just look at our little group here that discusses the box office. We have quite a few that rarely go to movies with cost being a main factor why they don't go. So "relative" is subjective based on personal determination, that may not be the same universally, and is one of the things that gets slashed or heavily cut in a family budget during times of economic uncertainty.

This isn't a new discussion, this same discussion has happened over and over since 2020.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Could be. I paid $4.85 for Premium at Costco this weekend, but Utah has to depend on California for gasoline and California now imports gas from overseas instead of pumping it out of the ground in Bakersfield. Dumb economic move, there. Still, at least gas here is at least $2.00 less than Southern California, almost all due to lower taxes in Utah.

Utah has a great economy, and most recent GDP growth rate of 2.7%. That's one of the strongest in the USA, and the Midwest and South are also doing very well right now; Texas at 2.4% growth, Florida 2.7%, Tennessee 2.2% (and just stole Starbucks HQ from Seattle!), Kansas 2.9%, South Dakota 2.9%, etc.

The weakest areas right now are the Pacific Northwest, and any suburb within a 60 minute drive of Washington DC (VA, MD, DE).

I get it. Gas spiked by almost $2 a gallon the last 60 days. But I can't find any economic data other than "feels" that explains why The Devil Wears Prada 2 just had a $77 Million opening weekend instead of a Barbie-esque $150 Million.

Great news for Burbank though is that Devil 2 will still make a tidy profit for them! At this point, it's just a question of how much?

I wasn’t talking about just gas.

Look at the debt bubbles…we’re not in a healthy place on any level.

Perhaps movies are a safe haven from higher priced entertainment now? Could be.

But when looking at those numbers from 2022-2026…they’re basically flat in aggregate…the money isn’t worth as much now….so where are we?

 

[parksandtravel]

I feel like movies tend to always be a relatively affordable entertainment option, regardless of any economic challenges people are facing.

Disney in particular is likely more worried about the cost of travel, and how that could impact theme parks.

That is correct; but there is recent research on the premiumization affecting theaters.

 

[TP2000]

I feel like movies tend to always be a relatively affordable entertainment option, regardless of any economic challenges people are facing.

Disney in particular is likely more worried about the cost of travel, and how that could impact theme parks.

Now there's a statement that I can support, because it's backed by long historical data and economic trends.

Vacations are the first thing people cut when money gets tight or Dad might get laid off. Later the spending on cars, and major appliances get cut, etc. But Vacation Travel is almost always the first thing cut, then probably clothes next.

I believe The Devil Wears Prada 2 didn't do Barbie type numbers because it lacks the broader demographic Barbie had. Not because gas rose by 2 bucks since February at the same time the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% and Super Mario Bros. did $400+ Million at the domestic box office in April alone, Project Hail Mary did $300+ Million, Michael hit big last weekend, etc., etc.

It's not The Economy. Instead it's The Demographics.

 

[parksandtravel]

Movie Night or Money Pit? 78% of Moviegoers Say Theaters Are Now a Luxury — and They’d Rather Stream at Home

78% of moviegoers prefer streaming movies at home over the theater, as just 23% say they've been to the movies in the past month.

www.lendingtree.com

 

[Disney Irish]

I wasn’t talking about just gas.

Look at the debt bubbles…we’re not in a healthy place on any level.

Perhaps movies are a safe haven from higher priced entertainment now? Could be.

But when looking at those numbers from 2022-2026…they’re basically flat in aggregate…the money isn’t worth as much now….so where are we?

You and I are usually on different sides of these debates, but here we are in complete agreement. With few exceptions the box office has been flat (or even down depending on the year) since the pandemic, something I've been saying for a long long time here.