News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition

bartholomr4

bartholomr4

Well-Known Member
Rodan75 said:
I agree with much of what you say. But remember Comcast can veto any expansion plan, which means they aren’t on the hook for international expansion or original programming expansion if they don’t want to be.

I do think this moment is the best possible moment for Comcast to sell...the Hulu valuation is likely the highest it will be for years between now and the launch of Disney+. After D+ launches I suspect Hulu’s library and customer reach will seem less valuable and unique.
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I sure wish I could read the partnership agreement. Hopefully all of this will be moot and Comcast will blink and sell their stake.
 
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AnotherDayAnotherDollar

Well-Known Member
bartholomr4 said:
If you look at Comcast’s earnings report this morning, there are two items which stand out which you have to look closely to see:

1) Sky did not do well in the quarter and (Sky)income fell 11.9% YoY, and Revenue Growth was down 17%
2) In order to get their rosy report, Comcast had to write up their value of Hulu by $158 MM because AT&T’s sale forced them to value the asset at the same value AT&T sold their shares to Hulu.

I love the talk of the sale of Comcast’s stake in Hulu to Disney, but I doubt Disney or Comcast want to go and get regulatory approval and drag the closing out for 6 months.... If it happens, I am thinking (opinion only )the sale of the Comcast stake to Hulu instead of (directly to) Disney will make all of that regulatory process a lot easier.

I agree Brian Roberts would sell tomorrow for $7-8 Billion, and who knows if Iger is getting ready to pay that much, but I doubt it. I am thinking $4.5 to $5 Billion because of the AT&T valuation. (Think about Randall Stevenson’s reaction if they could have gotten another $700MM for their stake). Hulu is not a mature as Netflix, especially internationally, so using the Netflix Valuation to price Hulu is a stretch (my opinion).

Remember, Comcast has to decide if it wants to pay for a portion of the AT&T 9.4%. 30% of that is about $500million. Also funding the international expansion provides Disney with a great deal of leverage, as it appears that the agreement between Hulu and its owners, includes the ability to veto borrowing money, paying a dividend, taking the company public or selling itself to another company. It appears the agreement doesn’t prevent Hulu from going to one of the current owners (I,e, Disney) and selling more stock to fund its expansion.

The reason AT&T had 9.4% to sell and not 10%, is because AT&T failed to cover its portion of the quarterly deficit for Hulu. This means if Comcast doesn’t pay its portion of the shortage, then it must surrender shares in Hulu equal to what that shortage would be. In other words, Comcast can’t sit back and let Disney invest in Hulu, and get the benefit for free. I believe Disney will have the cash (what it received in the merger from 21CF because of the Sky sale, and what it will receive from the sale of the RSN’s) to force its hand with the expansion.

Lastly, with all of the articles this week about Iger leaving in 2 years, I don’t think Disney will be slow to move. We should see the out right purchase or a go it alone strategy show up sometime in the next 3-4 months. Just My opinion !
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I don't see Comcast selling their equity for the same valuation ATT did. They will want a premium on top of that. I feel very confident saying that and would be surprised if a deal closes for less than a decent premium of the current valuation for their shares.

Disneyhead'71 said:
Disney fans obsession with Marvel getting the movie rights back to Fantastic Four and X-Men is...amusing.

Not going to happen.
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A little change and that was commonplace thinking 2 years ago.

Things happen. As a lot of us like mentioning, those rights are pretty meaningless to both sides. If they were valuable and something that is on the company's roadmap (like Hulu) then we'd hear a lot more about it.
 
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seascape

Well-Known Member
Disneyhead'71 said:
Disney fans obsession with Universal giving up the Marvel theme park rights is...amusing.

Not going to happen.
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I understand your point but what I find even crazier are the Universal fans who think Disney would pay a billion dollars for the Marvel rights for Orlando. That is absolutely insane. I have consistently said Comcast will eventually give up the rights in Orlando because they are not worth the cost of the royalties and upgrade costs.

Think of it this way, WDW will in the not too distant future have several times the number of Marvel rides and attractions than Universal has in their only park, IOA that can have any Marvel rides and or attractions. Plus after Universals major expansion who will be visiting them because of Marvel? Right now they go for HP and beginning in 2023 they will go for Nintendo.
 
Disneyhead'71

Disneyhead'71

Well-Known Member
seascape said:
I understand your point but what I find even crazier are the Universal fans who think Disney would pay a billion dollars for the Marvel rights for Orlando. That is absolutely insane. I have consistently said Comcast will eventually give up the rights in Orlando because they are not worth the cost of the royalties and upgrade costs.

Think of it this way, WDW will in the not too distant future have several times the number of Marvel rides and attractions than Universal has in their only park, IOA that can have any Marvel rides and or attractions. Plus after Universals major expansion who will be visiting them because of Marvel? Right now they go for HP and beginning in 2023 they will go for Nintendo.
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GOTG and...?

And judging from what is happening this weekend at the cinemas around the world, MARVEL seems to still be a very profitable group of IPs. So I don't see Universal just giving up the rights for a bag of chips.

But what I was mainly referring too is things like...

"Universal got the Nintendo rights, that means Universal will give MARVEL back to Disney!"

"Comcast is going to sell Disney their 1/3 stake in HULU, that means Universal will give up their MARVEL theme park rights."
 
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AnotherDayAnotherDollar

Well-Known Member
seascape said:
I understand your point but what I find even crazier are the Universal fans who think Disney would pay a billion dollars for the Marvel rights for Orlando. That is absolutely insane. I have consistently said Comcast will eventually give up the rights in Orlando because they are not worth the cost of the royalties and upgrade costs.

Think of it this way, WDW will in the not too distant future have several times the number of Marvel rides and attractions than Universal has in their only park, IOA that can have any Marvel rides and or attractions. Plus after Universals major expansion who will be visiting them because of Marvel? Right now they go for HP and beginning in 2023 they will go for Nintendo.
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To be fair you also said the SM movie rights are worth like 5B which is insane.

Disneyhead'71 said:
GOTG and...?

And judging from what is happening this weekend at the cinemas around the world, MARVEL seems to still be a very profitable group of IPs. So I don't see Universal just giving up the rights for a bag of chips.

But what I was mainly referring too is things like...

"Universal got the Nintendo rights, that means Universal will give MARVEL back to Disney!"

"Comcast is going to sell Disney their 1/3 stake in HULU, that means Universal will give up their MARVEL theme park rights."
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Eternals and Shang Chi as far as Marvel characters they can use at WDW.

Marvel is a very valuable IP, but Universal can't use what makes it really valuable, the MCU. They use comic characters.

Btw I never said that Disney buying Comcast's stake in Hulu means they are giving up the Marvel rights. I said it's an opportunity for Disney to get any of the rights universal owns and licenses from Marvel and to amend those contracts. And it is. Will it happen? I have no clue. I'm not in the strategy, M&A, or executive team. The most important thing is money, if that is not right then nothing happens really.
 
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seascape

Well-Known Member
AnotherDayAnotherDollar said:
To be fair you also said the SM movie rights are worth like 5B which is insane.



Eternals and Shang Chi as far as Marvel characters they can use at WDW.

Marvel is a very valuable IP, but Universal can't use what makes it really valuable, the MCU. They use comic characters.

Btw I never said that Disney buying Comcast's stake in Hulu means they are giving up the Marvel rights. I said it's an opportunity for Disney to get any of the rights universal owns and licenses from Marvel and to amend those contracts. And it is. Will it happen? I have no clue. I'm not in the strategy, M&A, or executive team. The most important thing is money, if that is not right then nothing happens really.
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I would buy Spiderman for 5 billion. I was also including the past movies in the ownership and the entire family. Sont showed how valuable they are based on their Spiderverce animation. However that is far more valuable than a few rides at one themepark. No matter how good Spiderman is, the Hulk is just a rollercoaster and not worth that much.
 
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AnotherDayAnotherDollar

Well-Known Member
seascape said:
I would buy Spiderman for 5 billion. I was also including the past movies in the ownership and the entire family. Sont showed how valuable they are based on their Spiderverce animation. However that is far more valuable than a few rides at one themepark. No matter how good Spiderman is, the Hulk is just a rollercoaster and not worth that much.
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That's an insane valuation. I could go into details as to why, but i think MrPenguin already did.

No Marvel licensee holds anything that's worth billions. The only one that did was Fox because they owned movie rights, tv veto rights, and some merchandise rights to Fantastic Four, Deadpool, and X-Men.
 
Ismael Flores

Ismael Flores

Well-Known Member
seascape said:
Yes, Hulu will not be profitable until 2024 based on staying solely in the US. If they expand internationally that estimate is wrong. Losses will be higher for the initial expansion but total profitability will be sooner and greater. Hulu is for more adult programming while Disney plus is for everyone.
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True, I just don't see international expansion before 2024, if they stay the course then their estimate would stick. At that point a large international roll out will need a huge investment pushing the profitability deadline out the door and later in the 20's
 
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AnotherDayAnotherDollar

Well-Known Member
Twilight_Roxas said:
Remember Disney got Oswald back from Universal.
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That's also pre Comcast ownership.

Regarding Hulk distro rights, my opinion post Avengers Endgame (spoilers regarding the movie)

If those rights were worth little to Disney before then they are worth even less now. Hulk's arc is done. The character is not going to show up anywhere for a long while IMO except maybe random cameos. She Hulk is not needed as they showed A Force forming and it already looks sweet.
 
bartholomr4

bartholomr4

Well-Known Member
finance.yahoo.com

Hulu achieves rapid growth, hits 26.8 million paid subscribers

In a presentation to advertisers ahead of a new programming season, the streaming service also said it will launch two new TV series based on Disney's Marvel characters Ghost Rider and Helstrom. The new paid customer figure implies the digital video service controlled by Walt Disney Co and...
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com

Hulu growth in the first quarter
 
Rteetz

Rteetz

Well-Known Member
S

seascape

Well-Known Member
Rodan75 said:
variety.com

Disney Nears $10 Billion Sale of Fox Sports Networks to Sinclair

Disney has reached a deal to sell 21 Fox regional sports networks to Sinclair for about $10 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal.
variety.com

This is definitely disappointing. But at least they will be able to close the chapter and move on.
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I agree it's disappointing. I am glad we can move on now but wish they had been spun off instead.

Now it's time to use that money to buy Comcast's Hulu share and payoff some debt.
 
Rodan75

Rodan75

Well-Known Member
seascape said:
I agree it's disappointing. I am glad we can move on now but wish they had been spun off instead.

Now it's time to use that money to buy Comcast's Hulu share and payoff some debt.
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They also need to pay for all these Creator deals they’ve closed. Overall they have been pretty damn successful in keeping/getting talent deals.

Although they do have some big ones still outstanding.
 
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AnotherDayAnotherDollar

Well-Known Member

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