News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition

[Ripken10]

From the Hollywood Reporter: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/as-layoffs-arrive-disney-fox-staff-voice-frustrations-1196346

Part of the frustration, multiple employees tell The Hollywood Reporter, is that Disney has been less than forthcoming about who will be let go and when, and what their separation packages will look like, though some with more knowledge of the situation say that some employees will be getting up to 24 months of severance.

Says one Disney employee: "We feel like we're the ones who have been acquired because the people at Fox know what their severance packages are, if they are going to get let go, and nobody at Disney knows anything. People are panicking — and rightfully so — because nobody is telling them anything."

Indeed, Disney hasn't disclosed the number of jobs that would be lost — and that has yet to change. Analysts estimate 4,000-10,000, though several employees say the number being floated amongst people in the know is closer to 3,000.

I think you and seascape already touched on this (and factored it in if it is indeed the case), and I am more thinking out loud...but won't there be a significant number of higher positions cut (like the execs already announced) which (to me, the way I think of the numbers at least) will really throw off the averages some sites are using for how many will be cut. Like one of you two pointed out, one site used the avg salary to calculate the # of employees that will need to be cut, but I would think a higher # of execs cuts will lead to an inflated avg salary of those cut..moreover after you remove all the execs from the equation that number of cuts will be far less. Basically, if they had to save $1 billion (random number) in salaries, the execs might account for 50% of this (again random number), from a very select number of people...

 

[bartholomr4]

I think you and seascape already touched on this (and factored it in if it is indeed the case), and I am more thinking out loud...but won't there be a significant number of higher positions cut (like the execs already announced) which (to me, the way I think of the numbers at least) will really throw off the averages some sites are using for how many will be cut. Like one of you two pointed out, one site used the avg salary to calculate the # of employees that will need to be cut, but I would think a higher # of execs cuts will lead to an inflated avg salary of those cut..moreover after you remove all the execs from the equation that number of cuts will be far less. Basically, if they had to save $1 billion (random number) in salaries, the execs might account for 50% of this (again random number), from a very select number of people...

It could be.... I am just not sure there are that many executives which get paid salaries in that range. To add up to the $1 Billion, you would need to have 2,000 Executives which are paid $500K or more per year. I just don't think Fox was that bloated at the top. (i.e. 1 executive for every 5 worker-bee which is severed)

For grin's, lets say there is a 10 to 1 Ratio of Executive to Worker-bee..... That would suggest about 360 Executives and the rest as worker-bees.... Your cost reduction would be about $180 million for Executives and $364 million for the worker bees. The resulting savings equates to $544 Million cost reduction in my scenario for 4,000 employees. The rest of the savings then would have to come from the real-estate, systems elimination, redundancy eliminations, Supply Chain savings, and balance sheet management. Just my view and it's a model for discussion.....

 

[Rodan75]

It could be.... I am just not sure there are that many executives which get paid salaries in that range. To add up to the $1 Billion, you would need to have 2,000 Executives which are paid $500K or more per year. I just don't think Fox was that bloated at the top. (i.e. 1 executive for every 5 worker-bee which is severed)

For grin's, lets say there is a 10 to 1 Ratio of Executive to Worker-bee..... That would suggest about 360 Executives and the rest as worker-bees.... Your cost reduction would be about $180 million for Executives and $364 million for the worker bees. The resulting savings equates to $544 Million cost reduction in my scenario for 4,000 employees. The rest of the savings then would have to come from the real-estate, systems elimination, redundancy eliminations, Supply Chain savings, and balance sheet management. Just my view and it's a model for discussion.....

You are correct. Normally in these merger scenarios the big costs savings come down to real estate, duplicate systems and maintenance contracts. Only where people overlap in leadership positions do you really have major people savings.

I wonder how much was saved just by shutting down Fox 2000 as a label. Even if all of those people were reassigned to 20CF and Fox Searchlight.

 

[bartholomr4]

You are correct. Normally in these merger scenarios the big costs savings come down to real estate, duplicate systems and maintenance contracts. Only where people overlap in leadership positions do you really have major people savings.

I wonder how much was saved just by shutting down Fox 2000 as a label. Even if all of those people were reassigned to 20CF and Fox Searchlight.

And would the savings be Cost Reduction or Cost Avoidance..... i.e. assuming these projects produce revenue you are avoiding the cost, but also the offsetting revenue has to be made up elsewhere? I looked at BoxOfficeMojo, but the Fox 2000 was distributed by the Big 21CF Fox label, so it is hard to break out!

 

[Slpy3270]

The layoff reports from yesterday are hinting at more news today, primarily from the TV side.

We already know Fox's syndication unit no longer has a president (and since no replacement appears to be coming, that unit will probably be shuttered and moved to Buena Vista Television a.k.a. Disney-ABC Domestic TV). I expect more layoffs from the TV production side as well, likely as soon as today.

UPDATE: Fox Television distribution president Mark Kaner released. He had been running the division since '94. That division appears to be headed to Disney Media Distribution as it is an international unit.

Disney-21st Fox Layoffs: TV Divisions Brace for Deep Cuts

A second day of mass layoffs has begun on the Fox lot in the wake of Disney completing its acquisition of 21st Century Fox on Wednesday.

variety.com

 

[Rodan75]

And would the savings be Cost Reduction or Cost Avoidance..... i.e. assuming these projects produce revenue you are avoiding the cost, but also the offsetting revenue has to be made up elsewhere? I looked at BoxOfficeMojo, but the Fox 2000 was distributed by the Big 21CF Fox label, so it is hard to break out!

A little of both I'm assuming and Synergies can be both. I'm also assuming the output of Fox2000 will be split between 20CF (21CF was the parent company, not the studio name) and Fox Searchlight, so I'm thinking there really isn't a long term revenue loss.

 

[Slpy3270]

It seems, for the moment, that the TV side of Fox won't suffer the same devastation the film side has suffered. ABC Studios' smaller operation helps since that makes integration easier. Same can't be said for Fox's TV distribution units, though.

Disney-Fox: TV Units Largely Spared In First Wave Of Layoffs As Mark Kaner Exits

The bloodbath in Fox's film division yesterday, that saw an exodus of top executives exit, has not spread to the TV businesses of the combined companies.

deadline.com

 

[Darkprime]

It seems, for the moment, that the TV side of Fox won't suffer the same devastation the film side has suffered. ABC Studios' smaller operation helps since that makes integration easier. Same can't be said for Fox's TV distribution units, though.

Disney-Fox: TV Units Largely Spared In First Wave Of Layoffs As Mark Kaner Exits

The bloodbath in Fox's film division yesterday, that saw an exodus of top executives exit, has not spread to the TV businesses of the combined companies.

deadline.com

This kinda makes sense they need the tv side to produce content for Disney+.

 

[Lucky Rabbit]

Sorry but marvels movie slat is not locked in or even announced. I agree that all the projects you mention are highly likely, but they have known this move was coming for a long time. I don't think they are even filming anything yet.
You also fail to add in any of the slots fox had booked.
Let's wait until San Diego and D23 before we pretend to know what's coming.
Really great speculation though.

Pretend to know what's coming? Black Widow and The Eternals are scheduled to film this year. They could choose not to release them. It be really weird if Marvel Studios shows a blank screen for 2 hours, but if it sells then that could be the biggest money maker yet. That puts any X-Men movie back to 2021 at the earliest. Any potential X-Men/F4 movie currently is without a script, director, and will probably require a long casting process to make sure they get all these marquee characters correct. They won't haphazardly reboot the characters just for speed. Meanwhile...

Black Panther 2 - Ryan Coogler was announced as the director, he's also writing it, and reports had it initially eyeing to film late this year or early 2020. So far it's not scheduled to film this year (probably because the script isn't done): https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/h...er-2-ryan-coogler-write-direct-sequel-1151626

Doctor Strange 2 - We know Scott Derrickson is back to direct: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/h...e-2-scott-derrickson-returning-direct-1168156 and if you trust the guys over at ThatHashTagshow they are bringing back the original screen writer: http://thathashtagshow.com/2019/01/25/exclusive-c-robert-cargill-penning-the-doctor-strange-sequel/ which makes sense given he and Scott Derickson have been open about the plans for the sequel.

Shang-Chi - Destin Daniel Cretton is directing and Dave Callaham is writing the script. This was just announced, and it will require a lot more casting working than the previous two movies. https://variety.com/2019/film/news/...el-cretton-marvel-asian-superhero-1203162631/

Guardians Vol 3 - Script is done. Gunn is directing. It was set to film this year but we know what happened. It's now set to film in 2021 because he's doing it after Suicide Squad. It will 100% be released in 2022, so its getting a spot.

The 2021 slate doesn't feature a July movie. They could do an X-Men movie then but that could also be earmarked for Spider-Man (Homecoming July 17, Far From Home July 19). You don't have to believe me but those movies are happening.

 

[Slpy3270]

Here's the memo released today by Disney TV Studios president Craig Huengs.

For those of you I haven't met, I'm Craig Hunegs, President of Disney Television Studios. I feel so fortunate to join Disney, to work for Peter and Dana and to lead our exceptional TV studios.

I'm sure you agree, it's a truly unique time to create television and we enter it with great strength. Across our studios, we have an unmatched roster of executives and talent, the highest quality programs and an exciting lineup of development projects. Disney has networks and streaming services with an insatiable need for high quality, diverse programs. We have unprecedented opportunities for our creators to tell stories and touch audiences.

As we go forward, each of our studios — ABC Studios led by Patrick Moran, 20th Century Fox Television led by Jonnie Davis and Howard Kurtzman and Fox 21 led by Bert Salke — will continue to carve out unique identities with their own distinctive creative taste. I'm here to help bring it all together, to have us work seamlessly as a group. It's a time of rapid, fundamental change in television and I'll work with all of you to make sure we have what we need to grow and succeed. I'll also focus hard on making DTS the absolute best place to work for talent, for executives and for all our employees.

An important measure for us will be the compelling, breakout series we create for our sister platforms, ABC, Disney+, Freeform, FX, Hulu and NatGeo. Our relationship with them will figure hugely in our success, and across creative and business affairs we will aim for a true, friction-less partnership.

I feel incredibly lucky to do what we do. We touch and entertain audiences all over the world and together we can do it in an even more impactful way.

Over the coming weeks, I look forward to meeting and getting to know each and every one of you.

Best,

Craig

It looks like 20th Century Fox TV, Fox 21, ABC Studios and ABC Signature will all be operating autonomously, making the specter of synergy contentious if not impossible. This eerily resembles the hostility between Warner Bros. and TBS during the pre-AT&T years, and it's a strategy doomed to failure.

 

[Rodan75]

So it looks like Fox Animation and Blue Sky survived the first cut. That is likely a good sign for them as a label and production entity.

 

[Rodan75]

Here's the memo released today by Disney TV Studios president Craig Huengs.



It looks like 20th Century Fox TV, Fox 21, ABC Studios and ABC Signature will all be operating autonomously, making the specter of synergy contentious if not impossible. This eerily resembles the hostility between Warner Bros. and TBS during the pre-AT&T years, and it's a strategy doomed to failure.

At least for now. I suspect over time this will become 2 divisions vs 4. I suspect a bake off has begun.

 

[RSoxNo1]

At this point it seems like Disney does not have a Marvel movie slated for the late April/early May release in 2020 and 2021.

 

[seascape]

I was hoping for 4 Marvel movies a year. The 3 that Marvel was releasing plus one more from the XMen and or the Fantastic 4.

Now, if they can buy the Spiderman rights back from Sony. Then maybe the could release a new Marvel movie every other month. I would pay 4 billion for the rights and up to 10 billion if it included all the prior movies. The most amazing thing about the Marvel movies since Disney took over is that they have averaged over 1 billion each worldwide.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Things happen, such as the Spider-Man deal killing Inhumans (though their use in the SHIELD tv show also contributed).

This is the announced slate:

Spider-Man: Far From Home (7-5-2019)
Untitled movie #1 (5-1-2020)
Untitled movie #2 (11-6-2020)
Untitled movie #3 (2-12-2021)
Untitled movie #4 (5-7-2021)
Untitled movie #5 (11-5-2021)
Untitled movie #6 (2-18-2022)
Untitled movie #7 (5-6-2022)
Untitled movie #8 (7-29-2022)

These movies are locked in:

Spider-Man: Far From Home (7-5-2019)
Black Widow (5-1-2020)
The Eternals (11-6-2020)
Black Panther 2 (2-12-2021)
Doctor Strange 2 (5-7-2021)

Black Widow and Eternals are filming this year. Black Panther 2 and Doctor Strange 2 are unlikely to move. Especially considering Fox Marvel characters will need scripts, directors, and casting.

This is the first spot things could change:

Untitled movie #5 (11-5-2021) — Likely Shang-Chi and they’ve already hired the director. This movie will likely make massive amounts of money in the Asian markets, which we don’t always consider, but there’s financial reasons they’re elevating a character most people in this country don’t care about.

Untitled movie #6 (2-18-2022)

Untitled movie #7 (5-6-2022) — Likely Guardians 3 based off when Gunn should be finishing up Suicide Squad 2.

Untitled movie #8 (7-29-2022)

So you have two open spots there. Movie #8 will almost 100% be Spider-Man 3 unless Sony doesn’t re-up. Leaving movie #6 to be a Fox Marvel property or Captain Marvel 2, Ant-Man 3, Thor 4 (if he lives). I’d bet on Captain Marvel 2.

It doesn’t mean they won’t soft reboot them throughout these movies. The Strange 2 director tweeted out a picture of Strange with Namor. His movie rights are tangled up with Univeral similar to the Hulk. He’s Marvel’s version of Aquaman, but also considered a mutant.

Movie #6 is almost certain to be the follow up to the soon to be billion dollar movie Captain Marvel. Close to 3 years after the first one, just like 2021 BP 2 is close to 3 years after the first one.
Movie #8 is likely to be the conclusion of the Ant Man trilogy with Ant Man 3.

Hot take, I don't think Marvel/Disney and sony are reupping their contract. Disney will either buy out that contract and all the rights associated with Spider man or Sony is taking all rights to Spider man back to try and build their own universe.

Regarding inhumans, the property has great potential, but it'll have to be rebooted after a few years. The property has a lot of potential, but not as an X-Men spin off.

I was hoping for 4 Marvel movies a year. The 3 that Marvel was releasing plus one more from the XMen and or the Fantastic 4.

Now, if they can buy the Spiderman rights back from Sony. Then maybe the could release a new Marvel movie every other month. I would pay 4 billion for the rights and up to 10 billion if it included all the prior movies. The most amazing thing about the Marvel movies since Disney took over is that they have averaged over 1 billion each worldwide.

Lol Geez. Let's all be very grateful you are nowhere near the board to make any kind of financial decisions to bankrupt the company. I'll tell you what, explain to me how the Spider-man rights that Sony owns are worth 4 billion or 10 billion including all prior movies. Explain that one.

 

[Rodan75]

I was hoping for 4 Marvel movies a year. The 3 that Marvel was releasing plus one more from the XMen and or the Fantastic 4.

Now, if they can buy the Spiderman rights back from Sony. Then maybe the could release a new Marvel movie every other month. I would pay 4 billion for the rights and up to 10 billion if it included all the prior movies. The most amazing thing about the Marvel movies since Disney took over is that they have averaged over 1 billion each worldwide.

Honestly. I think they are better off with 2 including X-Men and doing mini series on D+ that tie to the movies. They need to be conscientious about burning out casual fans.

The only reason they should buy spider-man rights from Sony is if they want to limit product in the marketplace. Sony sounds like they are going to try and flood the market with spider offshoots. And that sounds bad. Disney won’t want to damage the billion dollars it makes a year from Spider-Man.

 

[bartholomr4]

Avengers IP, Assemble: the wild, circuitous path to Marvel getting its own brands back

Disney-Fox is just the latest step in Marvel Studios reclaiming its heroes (and villains)

www.polygon.com

Great read if you haven’t seen it yet!

 

[capsshield]

Pretend to know what's coming? Black Widow and The Eternals are scheduled to film this year. They could choose not to release them. It be really weird if Marvel Studios shows a blank screen for 2 hours, but if it sells then that could be the biggest money maker yet. That puts any X-Men movie back to 2021 at the earliest. Any potential X-Men/F4 movie currently is without a script, director, and will probably require a long casting process to make sure they get all these marquee characters correct. They won't haphazardly reboot the characters just for speed. Meanwhile...

Black Panther 2 - Ryan Coogler was announced as the director, he's also writing it, and reports had it initially eyeing to film late this year or early 2020. So far it's not scheduled to film this year (probably because the script isn't done): https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/h...er-2-ryan-coogler-write-direct-sequel-1151626

Doctor Strange 2 - We know Scott Derrickson is back to direct: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/h...e-2-scott-derrickson-returning-direct-1168156 and if you trust the guys over at ThatHashTagshow they are bringing back the original screen writer: http://thathashtagshow.com/2019/01/25/exclusive-c-robert-cargill-penning-the-doctor-strange-sequel/ which makes sense given he and Scott Derickson have been open about the plans for the sequel.

Shang-Chi - Destin Daniel Cretton is directing and Dave Callaham is writing the script. This was just announced, and it will require a lot more casting working than the previous two movies. https://variety.com/2019/film/news/...el-cretton-marvel-asian-superhero-1203162631/

Guardians Vol 3 - Script is done. Gunn is directing. It was set to film this year but we know what happened. It's now set to film in 2021 because he's doing it after Suicide Squad. It will 100% be released in 2022, so its getting a spot.

The 2021 slate doesn't feature a July movie. They could do an X-Men movie then but that could also be earmarked for Spider-Man (Homecoming July 17, Far From Home July 19). You don't have to believe me but those movies are happening.

Like I said I think everything you state is very likely but until they announce their schedule it's all logical speculation.
You also fail to include the Fox Marvel movie slots in your list.
they now own those slots as well as the obligation to their stock holders to keep that section profitable.
There is no reason they couldn't alternate X-Men and Fantastic Four every other year without affecting your projections.
I see 2020 the schedule increasing to 4 films a year. (which is actually a reduction in hero output.)
If they do it right and introduce the Submariner they would be on their way to a series of movies involving the Defenders.
An example adding Fox's Output to your projected list
2020 FF
2021 Professor X
2022 Namor
2022 X-men
2023 FF
2023 Magneto
2024 Silver Surfer
2024 Defenders
2024 X-Men

 

[Twilight_Roxas]

I'm hoping GotG Vol.3 could have a post credit for the villain of the next saga in the MCU.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Things happen, such as the Spider-Man deal killing Inhumans (though their use in the SHIELD tv show also contributed).

This is the announced slate:

Spider-Man: Far From Home (7-5-2019)
Untitled movie #1 (5-1-2020)
Untitled movie #2 (11-6-2020)
Untitled movie #3 (2-12-2021)
Untitled movie #4 (5-7-2021)
Untitled movie #5 (11-5-2021)
Untitled movie #6 (2-18-2022)
Untitled movie #7 (5-6-2022)
Untitled movie #8 (7-29-2022)

These movies are locked in:

Spider-Man: Far From Home (7-5-2019)
Black Widow (5-1-2020)
The Eternals (11-6-2020)
Black Panther 2 (2-12-2021)
Doctor Strange 2 (5-7-2021)

Black Widow and Eternals are filming this year. Black Panther 2 and Doctor Strange 2 are unlikely to move. Especially considering Fox Marvel characters will need scripts, directors, and casting.

This is the first spot things could change:

Untitled movie #5 (11-5-2021) — Likely Shang-Chi and they’ve already hired the director. This movie will likely make massive amounts of money in the Asian markets, which we don’t always consider, but there’s financial reasons they’re elevating a character most people in this country don’t care about.

Untitled movie #6 (2-18-2022)

Untitled movie #7 (5-6-2022) — Likely Guardians 3 based off when Gunn should be finishing up Suicide Squad 2.

Untitled movie #8 (7-29-2022)

So you have two open spots there. Movie #8 will almost 100% be Spider-Man 3 unless Sony doesn’t re-up. Leaving movie #6 to be a Fox Marvel property or Captain Marvel 2, Ant-Man 3, Thor 4 (if he lives). I’d bet on Captain Marvel 2.

It doesn’t mean they won’t soft reboot them throughout these movies. The Strange 2 director tweeted out a picture of Strange with Namor. His movie rights are tangled up with Univeral similar to the Hulk. He’s Marvel’s version of Aquaman, but also considered a mutant.

Have you considered the film slots Fox had and the development of X-Force and Deadpool 2?

Poor Gambit.