Disney’s Fiscal Full Year and Q4 2022 Earnings Results Webcast

Laketravis

Laketravis

Well-Known Member
Sir_Cliff said:
Sorry to harp on this, but this is how Bloomberg is reporting results at the theme parks:



www.bloomberg.com

Disney Erases Almost All Its Pandemic Gains After Earnings Miss

Walt Disney Co. shares fell the most September 2001, dragged down by disappointing advertising sales and costly streaming programming.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com

So, according to investors, parks making a $1.51 billion profit is not that rosy. Something is off here.
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Part of it may be how they conveniently left out the 4Q drop for parks during the call, which one analyst (Morgan Stanley) pointed out during Q&A:

"And then, Christine, on the parks margins, U.S. margins this quarter, I think through the first three quarters of fiscal '22, margins were up pretty nicely versus '19. And they were actually down, I think, this quarter. It didn't sound like there was anything in your prepared remarks that sort of commented on that."
 
Sir_Cliff

Sir_Cliff

Well-Known Member
Laketravis said:
Part of it may be how they conveniently left out the 4Q drop for parks during the call, which one analyst (Morgan Stanley) pointed out during Q&A:

"And then, Christine, on the parks margins, U.S. margins this quarter, I think through the first three quarters of fiscal '22, margins were up pretty nicely versus '19. And they were actually down, I think, this quarter. It didn't sound like there was anything in your prepared remarks that sort of commented on that."
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That is a fair point, but I think it also shows that being wildly profitable is not enough. The margins have to keep going up and the moment the margins go down, it is a problem regardless of whether the parks are still wildly profitable.

If your job depended on margins going up forever, how would you manage the parks?
 
flynnibus

flynnibus

Premium Member
Sir_Cliff said:
So, according to investors, parks making a $1.51 billion profit is not that rosy. Something is off here.
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You keep looking at the absolute number in a vacuum. $1.5b is a lot of money, but if you were planning on say.. 2 billion.. you're still gonna be disappointed. They aren't commenting on how much money 1.5b is, they are commenting on how the business is performing vs what the business should be or is expected to be doing.

1.5b is a big number.. until you look at in context. In 2018, P&R did 28.7b revenue and 7.9b op income. In 2022, they only did 20.2b and 4.4b. That's almost 20% less margin...

And where are prices in 2022 vs 2018?

Stop fixating on the size of the numbers and look at the numbers in terms of business returns and expected volumes.
 
flynnibus

flynnibus

Premium Member
Sir_Cliff said:
That is a fair point, but I think it also shows that being wildly profitable is not enough. The margins have to keep going up and the moment the margins go down, it is a problem regardless of whether the parks are still wildly profitable.

If your job depended on margins going up forever, how would you manage the parks?
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Their margins aren't going up compared to where they used to be while they pump prices like crazy.

'1.5b' is not 'wildly profitable' if you are under performing to where you should be in terms of return on your investment.
 
MisterPenguin

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Sir_Cliff said:
That is a fair point, but I think it also shows that being wildly profitable is not enough. The margins have to keep going up and the moment the margins go down, it is a problem regardless of whether the parks are still wildly profitable.

If your job depended on margins going up forever, how would you manage the parks?
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Also... dividing up the year into quarters is a bit... artificial. Some quarters do better than others. You go gang busters 3 quarters, but the 4th isn't as profitable, Wall Street sells. Or if you didn't make as much profit as Wall Street wants, Wall Street sells.

Wall Street doesn't care that year to year, the full company's net profits when from $2B to $3.1B. They only want to know what your doing for them last quarter.

Also.. a lot of the ups and downs are by short term speculators. They want stocks that "beat the average." So, if your stock isn't beating the long-term average of stocks, which is a yearly increase of 7% returns, you're dumped. They're chasing after stocks that can beat the market with 10% or 20%.

The base of most stocks is long term holders of stocks such as retirement funds. And if they're wise, they're indexed to the market in general and are bound to make that 7% in the long run.

Day-traders want to have nothing to do with that. They think they can beat the market. And scientific studies show over and over... they almost never do.
 
Laketravis

Laketravis

Well-Known Member
Sir_Cliff said:
That is a fair point, but I think it also shows that being wildly profitable is not enough. The margins have to keep going up and the moment the margins go down, it is a problem regardless of whether the parks are still wildly profitable.

If your job depended on margins going up forever, how would you manage the parks?
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I wouldn't. I'd comfortably retire and hand everything over to a guy named Bob.
 
Casper Gutman

Casper Gutman

Well-Known Member
CaptainAmerica said:
Nobody watched Andor. Rogue One was a fanboy's wet dream but the characters were entirely forgettable. It's a show nobody wanted or needed.
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Andor is one of the best written and directed shows that aired this year. It’s not just excellent Star Wars, it’s excellent television. I strongly disliked Rogue One and think Andor is spectacular. You have a real issue with making baseless, incredibly sweeping pronouncements.
 
Casper Gutman

Casper Gutman

Well-Known Member
UNCgolf said:
I'd agree with the earlier comment that the characters in Rogue One were forgettable, but I still enjoyed it. It's the only one of the 5 Disney Star Wars movies I've had any interest in watching a second time.

Haven't watched Andor, but maybe I should.
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I disliked Rogue One because to me it felt like it was trying to make Star Wars self-consciously “adult” but lacked the courage of its convictions. The result was colorless, with a cast of (as you said) largely uninteresting characters. Frustratingly, the film kept raising interesting issues regarding fascism and the morality of armed revolution and then dropping them.

Andor confronts those issues of fascism and revolution head-on and in depth. It arguably does so with more insight and intelligence then any other current TV show. Andor himself is still not particularly interesting, but the large cast around is fascinating and deep. It’s the “adult” Star Wars Rogue pretended to be (not that we needed “adult” Star Wars, but Andor makes it work).
 
MrPromey

MrPromey

Well-Known Member

​



But he was a little more bearish on the metaverse, or at least the vision seemingly preferred by Meta Platforms Inc.

“I don’t think you will ever be able to have a substitute for the theme park experience,” he said, noting that a day-long experience with food, shopping and live experiences is unlikely to be replicated in a virtual environment.

He did, however, offer one potential example of how Disney could play in the space.

He noted that guests sometimes decide to get off Disney World and Disneyland rides during the attraction, spurring closures or delays.

“Through the magic of technology, we can give you the ability to exit your ride vehicle virtually … And see what makes the Haunted Mansion tick,” he said, adding that a user could then be served the new Haunted Mansion movie on Disney+.

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TalkingHead said:
The future is skipping the park because it’s too much of a hassle and too expensive and watching a Mansion ride-through, behind the scenes vids, and a direct-to-video spin-off? This guy’s gonna talk himself out of a job if he’s not careful.
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Nah, he spelled out the problem (for Disney) pretty clearly (Bolded up there in the quote) on why this would never work as an actual replacement.

Also, I'm not sure how you attach Lightning Lane to an at-home VR experience.

He can't sell you enough through VR to replace a visit to the parks but people smarter than him can gamify aspects of the parks that could be experienced at home in VR, which, bundled with other offerings along the lines of Vader Immortal, could become a platform they could charge a monthly fee to access - maybe an add-on to Disney+.

Of course, the big problem with VR for something like this is the still open question about the effects it may have on developing brains/eyes and the lowest age for access on any major platform today being twelve years old.

A Disney branded service that is only for teens and up is going to be a hard sell but if they ever conclusively determine that VR does not screw anything up in the little ones, it could be another money bin if VR, in some form or another, ever goes more mainstream.
 
Dan Deesnee

Dan Deesnee

Well-Known Member
Why are people talking about Disney being bought out? This is the literal worst time in modern history for a large company to buy another large company. The cost to borrow is astronomically higher than just a year ago. And no it doesn't matter how much cash they have on hand, no company burns through their cash reserve to purchase another company.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Crunchie9 said:
Well…. A recession is two Qs of negative economic growth, and we have been in a decline since June 2021, so……….. in a few months we will meet the definition of a “DEPRESSION”

That being said Disney shouldn’t be under 100$ a share and while there maybe more pain, I can’t see Disney staying down forever. I sold at 194.. might be time to buy back in.
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It was never worth $194…you hit the lottery there, kid.

Disney is not a horse trading stock. It’s values always was stability. Based on what they sell. It’s not quick score material.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Dan Deesnee said:
Why are people talking about Disney being bought out? This is the literal worst time in modern history for a large company to buy another large company. The cost to borrow is astronomically higher than just a year ago. And no it doesn't matter how much cash they have on hand, no company burns through their cash reserve to purchase another company.
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They’re not getting bought…

But if things change and they were ripe…their catalogue and product pull would make them a coveted prize

No where close to that now
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Casper Gutman said:
I disliked Rogue One because to me it felt like it was trying to make Star Wars self-consciously “adult” but lacked the courage of its convictions. The result was colorless, with a cast of (as you said) largely uninteresting characters. Frustratingly, the film kept raising interesting issues regarding fascism and the morality of armed revolution and then dropping them.

Andor confronts those issues of fascism and revolution head-on and in depth. It arguably does so with more insight and intelligence then any other current TV show. Andor himself is still not particularly interesting, but the large cast around is fascinating and deep. It’s the “adult” Star Wars Rogue pretended to be (not that we needed “adult” Star Wars, but Andor makes it work).
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What you’re describing is deep space nine
Head writer? Ronald D Moore.

And battlestar galactica
Executive producer? Ronald D Moore

You know who I’ve said a dozen times should head LFL?

…forgot the dudes name
 

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