Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Parker in NYC]

Weeping for my city. Apologies if this was already posted.

Coronavirus killing people in New York City at rate of one every 17 minutes

For the past two days, New Yorkers have been dying at a rate of one every 17 minutes, according to the latest grim citywide statistics. On both Thursday and Friday, another 84 people died in the ci…

nypost.com

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

I just got your name! Nice.

Kinda looks like Morgan Freeman. Just a little.

 

[21stamps]

This this this this this!!!!

New York and Idaho would have both seen the same benefits from a 3 week national lockdown?

 

[DKampy]

This is really depressing...it feels like nothing can stop this virus...Italy is still going strong despite being on lockdown for a month...I feel like might as well let it do what it’s going to do

 

[Andrew C]

How can you determine if they wouldn’t?

with data and facts on the ground.

 

[Parker in NYC]

This is really depressing...it feels like nothing can stop this virus...Italy is still going strong despite being on lockdown for a month...I feel like might as well let it do what it’s going to do

11 people at my office have tested positive. Thank goodness I had the foresight to start working from home three weeks ago before the state made that call. And that’s because I have the privilege of working from home. I am so sick of reading that we should sacrifice others for the good of the economy. What are you going to do when everyone lower on the ladder can’t support those up above because they’re dead?

 

[UNCgolf]

This is really depressing...it feels like nothing can stop this virus...Italy is still going strong despite being on lockdown for a month...I feel like might as well let it do what it’s going to do

The issue with that thinking is that it would probably be that much worse if Italy wasn't on lockdown. Of course we don't know for sure, but it's likely that their numbers of infected and deaths would be significantly higher.

The current number of infected people in Italy is almost certainly dramatically higher than what's being reported, though, because they haven't been able to even come close to testing everyone.

 

[The_Jobu]

This is really depressing...it feels like nothing can stop this virus...Italy is still going strong despite being on lockdown for a month...I feel like might as well let it do what it’s going to do

Keep the faith. The more this is strung out, the lower the demand for precious hospital beds, the more lives saved.

 

[rowrbazzle]

I mean. It was nice to read and he makes a strong argument. But it also included assumptions, false choices, and didn’t take data into consideration or the fact that the virus spreads differently from state to state. It was as strong opinion and I appreciated it but I am going to leave it to the multiple experts to provide fact based opinions to POTUS.

The state and local differences are what get me. I've been working from home for over 3 weeks now. The number of confirmed cases represents 0.006% of the population. I'm sure it's higher, as tests are limited. But there would need to 163 times more cases to even reach 1% of the population. The numbers are rising slowly, but given the timelag some of those could be cases from a couple weeks ago. It seems like it's working.

The local stay home order still has a couple more weeks on it (for now). Unless things get demonstrably worse during that time, why can't restrictions be lifted here? That's not an option for NY, but why can't it be for the less impacted areas?

 

[Parker in NYC]

with data and facts on the ground.

I’m here on the ground and let me tell you, you don’t know what’s going on until you’re at the front lines.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Indeed, tell it to Italy (.01% of pop. dead) and Spain (.0049%). However, China (.00022%) and Germany (.00014%) have, relatively speaking, lower numbers (for now).

(If China's (or any) numbers are to be believed.)

(And the decimal points are not wrong. .00014% = .0000014)

(And no, I am not minimizing the severity of these deaths. Only comparing the countries (albeit at different stages of the curve)).

ETA: The last three caveats/disclaimers are not directed at you, @marni1971 . I'm just anticipating various responses from others.

It really doesn't matter what percentage of the population becomes critically ill and/or die.

What matters if they're going to be more critically ill people than what your health system can take care of. Because, if there is, then even more people die as you decide who gets care and who doesn't.

And to those of you touting the richness of U.S.'s number of ventilators... If we have so many, then why are we running out? Quoting a ratio of ventilators to the general population is absolutely meaningless when dealing with absolute numbers.

There's a time when looking at numbers that you compare them to other numbers by way of a ratio for a meaningful way to understand the situation. Then there are times when that ratio is practically meaningless. That is, meaningless in a practical way.

E.g. if your entire wealth was one cent, and I gave you ten more cents, then your entire wealth increased 1,000%!! That's a meaningless ratio. You're only 10 cents richer.

So, to all of you minimizing the crisis by searching for relative ratios which make the critical health toll and the death toll look small in comparison, focus instead on real, actual, practical, and absolute numbers and realize this:

If [The absolute number that will need critical care if we do nothing] > [The absolute number of critical care units], then more people die.

Period.

 

[Andrew C]

I’m here on the ground and let me tell you, you don’t know what’s going on until you’re at the front lines.

what grounds? What state? What county?

 

[JohnD]

I think it depends on what he means. From what I've read the feds may have the power to halt movement from one state to another. If that's what he means, then it might be enforceable. If he means restrictions within the states like keeping them inside their residences and such, then I'd say no.

I agree. The quarantine would be no travel beyond those areas. But it’s not a lockdown inside the home either.

 

[Tori]

In the long term, I would hate to see us become less mobile and social as a result of this crisis. I look forward to going back to handshakes, hugs, and kisses on cheeks when it’s safe to do so. Cleanliness is another matter, however, and I’d really welcome a shift in personal-hygiene standards (it always amazes me how many men leave public bathrooms without washing their hands).

Same in the women's restroom.

 

[Parker in NYC]

what grounds? What state? What county?

New York City.

 

[ifan]

This is a nice website that shows updated models based on when states began lockdowns etc - and tries to provide info on what date resource use will peak. The doom and gloom worst case scenarios don't look like they will pan out (due to lockdowns being implemented) - but some states are in better conditions than others. For example, New York is in a much worse position than Florida or Illinois will ever be in. Michigan is somewhere in between. Either way, I don't think we will run out of ventilators (but beds and staffing are still a concern in certain hotspots.)

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

What matters if they're going to be more critically ill people than what your health system can take care of.

And what do you think happens to the regular guy/gal that walks in with chest pains, or a trauma case that shows up at that ER. They got no chance.

 

[Andrew C]

New York City.

Let me know where I have advocated for lifting restrictions on NYC. Or any area for that matter.
I have consistently been of the opinion that solutions are not going to be a one sized fit all for every area of the country. The experts should be able to use data to get an understanding of what recommendations should be for each specific area, given that the virus does not spread in the same way everywhere.

 

[Lilofan]

Delta Airlines is doing the right thing. It is offering free flights for medical professional volunteers who are flying to the corona hot spot cities.

 

[21stamps]

NYC is a crowded city, people shoulder to should often.. some farm town in Idaho may have a house every mile apart.
There is not a one size fits all for this country.