Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Disney Experience]

I don't follow the 3x faster math of yours. But I suck at math.

Let's be real here too. Pfizer is more global and has been around longer and in more places with Delta running wild

I think also age and health has to go into mixes for certain things. If you are 55-60+ your immune system is different. I don't think it's as black and white as you are stating and I would be rather shocked if these two are really as you are saying with times. They are too close in technology to be that different.

Pfizer loses 3% effectiveness per month according to their own 6 month Phase 3 trial analysis ( see preliminary study results I linked about a week ago).

Moderna reported yesterday ( See link I had in an earlier message today) in their Q2 presentation that their 6 month analysis of their Phase 3 trial showed a 1% decline per month.

Different is 1% vs 3% decline . Therefore 3X different in their decline rate.

What factors may influence that are definitely debatable. But where Pfizer is being used now vs Moderna only effects clinical results. The Phase 3 trials tried to remove many factors ( when placebo was in effect). Pfizer’s Phase 3 did include parts of Europe and Turkey. It did not include Israel from my recollection.

Neither analysis includes the more recent Delta on effectiveness.

 

[ABQ]

I still don't get why delta is hitting Florida so much harder than other states, even when comparing to California and Texas who have had jumps of their own. Just more people mingling in summer or what? They aren't the worst with vaccinations.

California seems to be on a similar trend, just behind the FL timeline a bit.
https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/

 

[DisneyCane]

Looks like not real…over 20,000 again yesterday

That's more in line what I expect going by the UK and India. I don't expect a peak for two weeks or so.

 

[GoofGoof]

That's more in line what I expect going by the UK and India. I don't expect a peak for two weeks or so.

Well looking for a silver lining the 7 day moving average is only up 28% this week (8/4 compared to 7/28) but the increase was around 60% a week the previous 2 weekly periods. So it’s not a peak and decline yet but may at least be a slowing of the increase in cases.

 

[mf1972]

When hospitals are overrun, other sections of the hospital become covid wards. Some RNs that work in burn units had part of their work areas turn into covid wards last year.

my hospital converted our cafeteria to pods to hold covid patients when we had a high number of patients. other units around the entire hospital had rooms converted to negative pressure to hold covid patients as well. it was something i hope we don’t have to see again.

 

[lisa12000]

Yeah agreed - I accept I was wrong when I was concerned about some case rises at the start of last week

Haha seriously nothing was sure was it - I’m positive that cases will start to go up within a week or two again it’s inevitable it’s just I think it will be a stable or gentle rise not exponential

 

[mmascari]

Since you’re not vaccinated, you were never supposed to stop wearing a mask indoors. You should already be wearing one full time indoors.

Unless you mean outdoors too. But I doubt that comes back, or is needed, whenever distance is possible. In a big crowd, when outdoors acts more like indoors, you should probably already have one now.

I wear them indoors where they are required.

What does that mean?

1. Only when someplace requires everyone to wear a mask?
2. Only when someplace recommends unvaccinated wear a mask but doesn’t check and doesn’t require everyone?
3. Any indoor space with limited ventilation?
   
   If it’s only the first, you are 100% the problem. As an unvaccinated person, you should be wearing a mask in all of them. It doesn’t matter if the business requires them or not, checks or not. That was the change, that VACCINATED people could stop wearing a mask in the second two. If you’re wearing in all 3, I apologize. But that answer screams only the first when reading it.

 

[lisa12000]

Well looking for a silver lining the 7 day moving average is only up 28% this week (8/4 compared to 7/28) but the increase was around 60% a week the previous 2 weekly periods. So it’s not a peak and decline yet but may at least be a slowing of the increase in cases.

So what happened in the uk is we had a false slow down which did speed up again but only very temporarily then a decline. The word of warning is that I don’t expect the uk to have an india like decline. We will bobble around at the numbers we have now for w while although we are going to vaccinate 16-17 year olds now and probably 12-15 year olds not long after.

as our highest case rates are in the 10-24 age groups this should help

 

[Jenny72]

There are times that a go-it-alone, individualistic mindset can be an asset, but for the challenges that currently stand before us (and Covid is just one of them), we need collective action. There's no way to get a personal vaccine against climate change, for instance. I don't know how to convince people who are deeply invested in the attitude that each person is only responsible for him/herself. There's a time and a place for that, and this isn't it. But I fear that many don't see it until it's too late.

 

[disneygeek90]

Mayor Demings says they are looking into a third county testing site and there may be an announcement soon - he notes the state has not offered any help with additional testing locations. The new testing site has also had to close early due to hitting capacity.

I'm lucky that my office has tests available. Along with having a cold, my coworker told me she tested positive this morning and I wasn't 100% confident in my home test.

I was just in and out in 30 mins, with both a negative covid and strep test, for $10. It's ridiculous that public testing sites are this backed up and limited.

 

[Mr. Moderate]

I'm asking for some good advice and please, I don't need any ridicule and I'm respectfully asking you all here. I have a long planned vacation coming up in the middle of October and honestly, I'm deeply concerned here on whether to cancel or not. My family is all vaccinated and has been for quite some time, but there's always the chance of getting sick. The recent numbers are concerning.

I looked at my flights and I'll only get a partial credit, as I upgraded later after the initial booking and it's not showing the full amount if I cancel the flight. I'm on the fence here and I'm at a loss at what to do. Should I hold out a couple more weeks to see if the numbers go down? It's a long wait trying to get someone on the phone at Disney and United Airlines and still no human contact as of yet. I'd appreciate any sound, reasonable advice. Thank you.

 

[Andrew C]

I'm asking for some good advice and please, I don't need any ridicule and I'm respectfully asking you all here. I have a long planned vacation coming up in the middle of October and honestly, I'm deeply concerned here on whether to cancel or not. My family is all vaccinated and has been for quite some time, but there's always the chance of getting sick. The recent numbers are concerning.

I looked at my flights and I'll only get a partial credit, as I upgraded later after the initial booking and it's not showing the full amount if I cancel the flight. I'm on the fence here and I'm at a loss at what to do. Should I hold out a couple more weeks to see if the numbers go down? It's a long wait trying to get someone on the phone at Disney and United Airlines and still no human contact as of yet. I'd appreciate any sound, reasonable advice. Thank you.

I wouldn't cancel since you are vaccinated. Your risk is low, although not perfect, due to this. But I think you will need to make your own risk assessment. Everyone has their own levels of comfort.

 

[CLEtoWDW]

Today’s update. The R0 continues to decline which is a good sign that the COVID cases have plateaued and are receding. Just like in the UK we see a quick spike with Delta and an equally fast decline.

 

[Flugell]

Why are you having to pay for tests? Surely for greater accuracy of numbers infected or not, hopefully because they are vaccinated, testing should be easily accessible and free of charge?

 

[disneygeek90]

Why are you having to pay for tests? Surely for greater accuracy of numbers infected or not, hopefully because they are vaccinated, testing should be easily accessible and free of charge?

This was at my office at work. The wellness center charges a $10 flat fee for any visit for any reason. A bargain considering it takes 30 minutes out of my day instead of 4 hours.

 

[StarWarsGirl]

I'm asking for some good advice and please, I don't need any ridicule and I'm respectfully asking you all here. I have a long planned vacation coming up in the middle of October and honestly, I'm deeply concerned here on whether to cancel or not. My family is all vaccinated and has been for quite some time, but there's always the chance of getting sick. The recent numbers are concerning.

I looked at my flights and I'll only get a partial credit, as I upgraded later after the initial booking and it's not showing the full amount if I cancel the flight. I'm on the fence here and I'm at a loss at what to do. Should I hold out a couple more weeks to see if the numbers go down? It's a long wait trying to get someone on the phone at Disney and United Airlines and still no human contact as of yet. I'd appreciate any sound, reasonable advice. Thank you.

I honestly think you'll be fine. You've been vaccinated, masks are required, and likely the peak will be over by October.

My family and I have been four times since this pandemic started. Disney is really good about mask enforcement. We're just cognizant about putting out masks on when we're in a crowd. At QS locations, we also try to eat outside if possible or go at non-peak times so there's fewer people around. Some of the TS locations are still spacing you out (Teppan Edo for instance still spaced groups out and had Plexi up in July even though the mask mandate was dropped).

 

[StarWarsGirl]

Why are you having to pay for tests? Surely for greater accuracy of numbers infected or not, hopefully because they are vaccinated, testing should be easily accessible and free of charge?

There's an at-home test that you can pick up from drug stores. It costs around $23 for two tests. It saves you having to make an appointment or wait for results.

BTW, if anyone needs to have a test done, this is a great option.

https://www.walgreens.com/store/c/binaxnow-covid-19-antigen-self-test-kit/ID=300414527-product

 

[dreday3]

I'm asking for some good advice and please, I don't need any ridicule and I'm respectfully asking you all here. I have a long planned vacation coming up in the middle of October and honestly, I'm deeply concerned here on whether to cancel or not. My family is all vaccinated and has been for quite some time, but there's always the chance of getting sick. The recent numbers are concerning.

I looked at my flights and I'll only get a partial credit, as I upgraded later after the initial booking and it's not showing the full amount if I cancel the flight. I'm on the fence here and I'm at a loss at what to do. Should I hold out a couple more weeks to see if the numbers go down? It's a long wait trying to get someone on the phone at Disney and United Airlines and still no human contact as of yet. I'd appreciate any sound, reasonable advice. Thank you.

We are going in October. All fully vaccinated. We aren't very worried, as even if we do catch it, all signs point to mild symptoms. I did make sure I have enough time to quarantine 10 days at home if I have to (only 5 work days) - but even then I think they would allow me to work home.

I very much expect the story in Florida to be much improved by October. Will masks be gone again? That I don't know, but I think cases will be back down.

I wouldn't cancel yet if you can wait a bit longer!

 

[hopemax]

I'm asking for some good advice and please, I don't need any ridicule and I'm respectfully asking you all here. I have a long planned vacation coming up in the middle of October and honestly, I'm deeply concerned here on whether to cancel or not. My family is all vaccinated and has been for quite some time, but there's always the chance of getting sick. The recent numbers are concerning.

I looked at my flights and I'll only get a partial credit, as I upgraded later after the initial booking and it's not showing the full amount if I cancel the flight. I'm on the fence here and I'm at a loss at what to do. Should I hold out a couple more weeks to see if the numbers go down? It's a long wait trying to get someone on the phone at Disney and United Airlines and still no human contact as of yet. I'd appreciate any sound, reasonable advice. Thank you.

Since you are vaccinated, my first instinct is not to cancel. I am actually heading "into the lion's den" on Monday. By October, I expect Florida will be in a valley again, before another post-holiday winter climb. Where that valley bottoms out at, who knows? So you will probably time it better than I did.

The biggest question for you is, how much of a deal breaker is wearing masks, to increase your odds of avoiding getting sick with anything? That's my plan, wear my mask more frequently than I thought I would, even if it's not a requirement.

 

[HatBox]

I have a trip mid October as well. My wife and I are vaccinated but not the 6 or 4 year old. I'm a little worried about them. Not sure what to do.