Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Chi84]

Question. Let's say they rate stays down below 5% for another week. Then shoots back up.
Does phase 2 start back over?
I dont see Disney basing their policy on something so fluid. 70% vaccinated is a hard number unless OC sees an influx of people moving in over a week.

Yeah, I didn't realize they were this close to the next phase. I expect WDW would wait at least a few weeks if the phase is based on such fluid data.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yeah, I didn't realize they were this close to the next phase. I expect WDW would wait at least a few weeks if the phase is based on such fluid data.

They aren’t close on the 70% vaccinated target. They just passed 50% last week. I would imagine 70% will take into June or maybe even July and I think that’s why they left the percent positive loophole. I’d be curious to see what the Mayor says the trigger is to go back to phase 2 if percent positive goes back up. Could be an ugly scone if they drop masks now, cases rise triggering an increase in percent positive and the masks are back by July 4.

 

[ABQ]

The 5% percent positive is a terrible metric to use. FL in general was under that for periods since the pandemic started only to spike back up. A lot of the country is under it now too. Vaccine percentages are a must better metric. You can’t unvaccinated people, but percent positive can spike up and then what?

I agree with you, however, those spikes won't be that high due to all the vaccination, there may be bumps, but not dramatic peaks.

 

[GoofGoof]

I agree with you, however, those spikes won't be that high due to all the vaccination, there may be bumps, but not dramatic peaks.

Agreed at 70% vaccinated. 50% is hit or miss. We had about 50% of adults vaccinated in my county and then had a spike in cases. Not a huge spike and shorter than past ones, but our percent positive went above 5% for a period of time.

 

[Chi84]

They aren’t close on the 70% vaccinated target. They just passed 50% last week. I would imagine 70% will take into June or maybe even July and I think that’s why they left the percent positive loophole. I’d be curious to see what the Mayor says the trigger is to go back to phase 2 if percent positive goes back up. Could be an ugly scone if they drop masks now, cases rise triggering an increase in percent positive and the masks are back by July 4.

I'm sorry, but "ugly scone" made me laugh

 

[Mark52479]

I agree with you, however, those spikes won't be that high due to all the vaccination, there may be bumps, but not dramatic peaks.

Yeah, I can NOT imagine CDC would of done what they did if they were expecting any more BIG SPIKES. Maybe little bumps here and there but I think spikes are over with.

 

[Nickp1983]

The 5% percent positive is a terrible metric to use. FL in general was under that for periods since the pandemic started only to spike back up. A lot of the country is under it now too. Vaccine percentages are a must better metric. You can’t unvaccinated people, but percent positive can spike up and then what?

Agreed. Did they think vaccines would be over 70% before 5% positivity?

I'd say the better metric isn't either or... but "and"

70% and 5% under for 2 weeks. Need both.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm sorry, but "ugly scone" made me laugh

I blame Siri, she must be hungry ....it’s funny so I’m not fixing it.

 

[Nickp1983]

Agreed at 70% vaccinated. 50% is hit or miss. We had about 50% of adults vaccinated in my county and then had a spike in cases. Not a huge spike and shorter than past ones, but our percent positive went above 5% for a period of time.

How were hospitalizations?

I guess that should really be the metric we all go by. That's always been the issue, right? Keep people put of the hospital. No one wants to get sick but if the cases spike and are asymptomatic or light in symptoms... then it's just the flu

 

[wdwmagic]

Eell the wording from Demings for removing mask requirements was:

Phase 3 – Effective when 70% of the population 16 or older has received their first dose of the vaccine and/or Orange County’s 14-day rolling positivity rate is 5% or below. All mandates are lifted.

So what exactly does AND/OR mean? Logic would say that condition cannot exist.

It seems the ambiguity may have been deliberate to speed things up or slow things down. May be the later here.

He also mentioned achieving the Phase 3 by July. I'm doubting he is expecting to get there this week.

 

[Nickp1983]

well the wording from Demings for removing mask requirements was:

Phase 3 – Effective when 70% of the population 16 or older has received their first dose of the vaccine and/or Orange County’s 14-day rolling positivity rate is 5% or below. All mandates are lifted.

So what exactly does AND/OR mean? Logic would say that condition cannot exist.

It seems the ambiguity may have been deliberate to speed things up or slow things down. May be the later here.

Very good point. It's like they have a built in escape clause there depending on what they want to do. I think given the nature of OC and their reaction to the governors orders. Their response will be "this is great news but we need to see the vaccination numbers go up before we talk about phase 3 "

 

[GoofGoof]

How were hospitalizations?

I guess that should really be the metric we all go by. That's always been the issue, right? Keep people put of the hospital. No one wants to get sick but if the cases spike and are asymptomatic or light in symptoms... then it's just the flu

Same spike which was also smaller than the Jan one and shorter lived. It’s the 2nd smaller spike here:

 

[Jlwise2021]

Well, the thing is they put the “or” in there, so I’m guessing that is what they expected. A week or so ago, there was an article out where they acknowledged that the 5% rolling 14-day average would be met first. Mandates were never about waiting for kids to be vaccinated because many didn’t even think kids would eligible until next year; it’s a miracle that younger kids will most likely be eligible later this year.

 

[DCBaker]

Eell the wording from Demings for removing mask requirements was:

Phase 3 – Effective when 70% of the population 16 or older has received their first dose of the vaccine and/or Orange County’s 14-day rolling positivity rate is 5% or below. All mandates are lifted.

So what exactly does AND/OR mean? Logic would say that condition cannot exist.

It seems the ambiguity may have been deliberate to speed things up or slow things down. May be the later here.

He also mentioned achieving the Phase 3 by July. I'm doubting he is expecting to get there this week.

I may be wrong here, but I want to say in one of these press conferences when Demings was talking about the 5% positivity metric that the county would have to meet that mark and would then have to remain there for a certain time before those changes would happen.

 

[GoofGoof]

Well, the thing is they put the “or” in there, so I’m guessing that is what they expected. A week or so ago, there was an article out where they acknowledged that the 5% rolling 14-day average would be met first. Mandates were never about waiting for kids to be vaccinated because many didn’t even think kids would eligible until next year; it’s a miracle that younger kids will most likely be eligible later this year.

One of Disney’s target demographics is kids and families. They certainly don’t have to wait until all kids are eligible to drop any Covid mitigations (they already dropped some) but dropping indoor masks with a large number of unvaccinated kids as your customers may not be wise or well accepted now. Once more people are vaccinated and cases come down further and the CDC recommends that masks can be safely dropped for unvaccinated people then the move makes a lot more sense.

 

[Lilofan]

Eell the wording from Demings for removing mask requirements was:

Phase 3 – Effective when 70% of the population 16 or older has received their first dose of the vaccine and/or Orange County’s 14-day rolling positivity rate is 5% or below. All mandates are lifted.

So what exactly does AND/OR mean? Logic would say that condition cannot exist.

It seems the ambiguity may have been deliberate to speed things up or slow things down. May be the later here.

He also mentioned achieving the Phase 3 by July. I'm doubting he is expecting to get there this week.

It is going to be a long hot June at WDW.

 

[dfisher9]

I think that 5% was put in there as an out in case OC gets to 68% and stuck there and cases were way down. I don't think they anticipated hitting it so early.

 

[wdwmagic]

I may be wrong here, but I want to say in one of these press conferences when Demings was talking about the 5% positivity metric that the county would have to meet that mark and would then have to remain there for a certain time before those changes would happen.

My reading of the situation is that they want to drop masks in early July. I don't see it happening this week. We'll see tomorrow.

 

[Chi84]

I think that 5% was put in there as an out in case OC gets to 68% and stuck there and cases were way down. I don't think they anticipated hitting it so early.

You're probably right. "And/or" is just poor grammar; maybe it was phrased that way to give them a choice to say later that they are choosing "and" instead of "or." If not, just using the word "or" would be sufficient.

 

[Nickp1983]

Don't celebrate being up by 4 with 2 minutes to go in football

There's a lot of time left and things can go from good to bad with one wrong play