DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
Eligible and available are two different things. All might be eligible by the end of April but there certainly won't be enough doses available for everybody until June best case.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
Just so we can get off a CERTAIN topic (hopefully for good!), here's an intriguing but not completely validated finding:
The article points out, however, that age and weight are more likely to be proxies for other risk factors rather than independent variables in themselves.
It also casts some serious doubt on the advertised clinical benefit of the mister product, since there are no efficacy studies to back up the claim.
Older, Heavier People May Be 'Superspreaders' of COVID-19
Study finds that older age and higher BMI increase the likelihood of spreading the SARS-CoV-2 virus; authors say that a nasal mist product could potentially reduce the number of exhaled viral particles.
www.medscape.com
The article points out, however, that age and weight are more likely to be proxies for other risk factors rather than independent variables in themselves.
It also casts some serious doubt on the advertised clinical benefit of the mister product, since there are no efficacy studies to back up the claim.
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GoofGoof
Premium Member
I think it will vary by state. There is not a consistent approach to the priority groups. In theory it may open to the general public a month or more earlier in some states depending on how many preferred people exist and also how many want the vaccine.
Assuming the vaccine deliveries continue to ramp up and meet their targets and assuming that we can actually get the shots in arms at a fast enough pace here’s the quick and dirty National picture:
102M doses distributed and 79M administered to date. Roughly 50M people have at least 1 shot and 25M have both. If we get another 120M doses from Pfizer/Moderna in March and 20M from JnJ which is the manufacturer’s target we would be on pace for roughly 120M people started and 40M doses on hand waiting to be used. Of the 120M people started, 40M people would be half done and 80M people complete. I have seen rough estimates that 150M people are in the 1a, 1b, 1c groups defined by the CDC that include healthcare workers, nursing homes, 65+, 16-64 with specific health conditions and essential workers. If we assume 80% of those eligible actually take the vaccine that means we would finish that group by end of March. I think that’s best case scenario.
If more than 150M people end up in the preferred group we are expecting to receive another 100M Pfizer/Moderna shots and 20-30M JnJ shots in April. That would get us to 200M people with at least 1 dose with 40M left that still need the 2nd shot. There are only 250M adults in the US so again assuming 80% vaccine acceptance every adult who wants a shot will have received at least 1 dose by the end of April with 40M waiting for their 2nd shot in May. Kids 12-17 will be approved for both Pfizer and Moderna sometime likely in April or May. That adds in 30M more people eligible but 24M that will likely want a vaccine.
These estimates all assume the deliveries come as expected, 220M by end of March, 400M by end of May for Pfizer and Moderna and 100M by end of June for JnJ. Any slippage in deliveries sets back the timeline. This also assumes 80% take the vaccine. So far the most optimistic polling shows 71% but with some people on the fence. No poll I‘ve seen since last Fall shows less than 18-20% saying they will never get the vaccine no matter what. This analysis was best case scenario. The point is it’s possible most of the general public has access to the vaccine as early as April and we have everyone 12+ done by around end of May. If you assume we miss targets maybe that slips to end of June or into July. Barring a complete disaster in manufacturing there‘s no reason to assume the general public will have to wait until July to go.
Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
And speaking of vaccination passports, looks like this is under consideration in the EU to allow for summer travel this year:
www.dw.com
If the EU moves in this direction, its going to be hard for any company that wants to do business there (like Disney and the airlines, for example...) not to embrace the system. If the US as a whole doesn't come up with something compatible, it would be nice if they keep it open to non-EU citizens to piggyback on their system.
How realistic is the EU's digital vaccine pass? – DW – 03/02/2021
Looking at the European Commission's track record in tackling the pandemic, you might be forgiven for thinking that it may have bitten off more than it can chew with its latest proposal for a vaccination document.
www.dw.com
If the EU moves in this direction, its going to be hard for any company that wants to do business there (like Disney and the airlines, for example...) not to embrace the system. If the US as a whole doesn't come up with something compatible, it would be nice if they keep it open to non-EU citizens to piggyback on their system.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
My best case assumption is done in May not June for all adults who want one.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
I hope your best case works out!
hopemax
Well-Known Member
I think May 1 is a good target for starting the general public, but I expect it will take 1-2 months to finish the shots. I posted earlier how CO is starting the next group 1B3 on Friday, of about 958,000 people. To date, CO has 913,000 who have received a first dose. So this next group is bigger than the group that took 2.5 months to do. Obviously, there have been many improvements to the process, and increased availability, but as each group remaining gets bigger, it's going to take time to work through everyone. CO is hoping to move to the first part of the following group in only 3 weeks, which seems optimistic to me, but we will see. I hope so, since 1B4 is the group I am in. Some states will probably be a little faster, which may be good if it's for efficiency reasons. Bad if it's because of poor uptake. I saw a graphic today that CO is one of the states where polling shows the highest numbers for people wanting the vaccine. Good in the long run, and we are hitting our ~70-80% targets, but it explains why we are behind other states for opening the next groups because we've still got people in the groups already open, lining up.
Anyone know about CA? I haven't been paying attention, but remember seeing they thought it was going to take deeper into summer because of their huge population.
EDIT: Gov is doing a press conference now. We're only supposed to receive another 405,000 doses by April 11, so I have no idea why they think they can start 1B4 in 3 weeks when we have 958,000 in 1B3. But supply is still going to be a sticky wicket for getting done by May, regardless of @GoofGoof's calculations.
EDIT 2: I can't read. 405K is just for that week. Between now and then we are scheduled to receive 1.67 million doses. Much better.
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ABQ
Well-Known Member
Pretty good page here for state and overall national distribution summaries.I think May 1 is a good target for starting the general public, but I expect it will take 1-2 months to finish the shots. I posted earlier how CO is starting the next group 1B3 on Friday, of about 958,000 people. To date, CO has 913,000 who have received a first dose. So this next group is bigger than the group that took 2.5 months to do. Obviously, there have been many improvements to the process, and increased availability, but as each group remaining gets bigger, it's going to take time to work through everyone. CO is hoping to move to the first part of the following group in only 3 weeks, which seems optimistic to me, but we will see. I hope so, since 1B4 is the group I am in. Some states will probably be a little faster, which may be good if it's for efficiency reasons. Bad if it's because of poor uptake. I saw a graphic today that CO is one of the states where polling shows the highest numbers for people wanting the vaccine. Good in the long run, and we are hitting our ~70-80% targets, but it explains why we are behind other states for opening the next groups because we've still got people in the groups already open, lining up.
Anyone know about CA? I haven't been paying attention, but remember seeing they thought it was going to take deeper into summer because of their huge population.
EDIT: Gov is doing a press conference now. We're only supposed to receive another 405,000 doses by April 11, so I have no idea why they think they can start 1B4 in 3 weeks when we have 958,000 in 1B3. But supply is still going to be a sticky wicket for getting done by May, regardless of @GoofGoof's calculations.
COVID Data Tracker
CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.
covid.cdc.gov
GhostHost1000
Premium Member
reporting CNN poison
I was reporting something somewhat said on a cable news network. That’s all. I don’t care who referenced it and where the link was from
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I will hedge my bets a little and say even if the deliveries slip a few weeks to a month everyone who wants a shot will have still started by the end of May and about 20-40M people will get their 2nd dose in June. Hoping that 225M Americans 12+ have the vaccine which would be 80% of those eligible or just under 70% of the total population. Hopefully good for herd immunity.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
The other factor is not everyone will want the shot so if you start out with 2M people in a group and have 500K to go there is a chance you actually have less than 100K left who actually want the shot. They will also have to start the next group a little before they get to zero on the current group in order to not lose momentum.I think May 1 is a good target for starting the general public, but I expect it will take 1-2 months to finish the shots. I posted earlier how CO is starting the next group 1B3 on Friday, of about 958,000 people. To date, CO has 913,000 who have received a first dose. So this next group is bigger than the group that took 2.5 months to do. Obviously, there have been many improvements to the process, and increased availability, but as each group remaining gets bigger, it's going to take time to work through everyone. CO is hoping to move to the first part of the following group in only 3 weeks, which seems optimistic to me, but we will see. I hope so, since 1B4 is the group I am in. Some states will probably be a little faster, which may be good if it's for efficiency reasons. Bad if it's because of poor uptake. I saw a graphic today that CO is one of the states where polling shows the highest numbers for people wanting the vaccine. Good in the long run, and we are hitting our ~70-80% targets, but it explains why we are behind other states for opening the next groups because we've still got people in the groups already open, lining up.
Anyone know about CA? I haven't been paying attention, but remember seeing they thought it was going to take deeper into summer because of their huge population.
EDIT: Gov is doing a press conference now. We're only supposed to receive another 405,000 doses by April 11, so I have no idea why they think they can start 1B4 in 3 weeks when we have 958,000 in 1B3. But supply is still going to be a sticky wicket for getting done by May, regardless of @GoofGoof's calculations.
EDIT 2: I can't read. 405K is just for that week. Between now and then we are scheduled to receive 1.67 million doses. Much better.
My calculations aren’t an actual prediction of what will happen as much as they are a projection based on expected doses delivered. The numbers are only as good as the deliveries. Do I really think Pfizer and Moderna will deliver 120M doses in the next 30 days, not with any level of certainty, but if they come in 45 days instead we are a few weeks behind. It’s still same ballpark as far as timing.
Depends on the states, but some states are very aggressively opening up eligibility.
In NY, so many groups are eligible (I got my first vaccine yesterday), that it's already about 60% of the adult population that are eligible.
Matching your expectation, Connecticut already announced full eligibility as of May 3rd. (34+ is April)
So I think it will vary. I do expect by May, it will be "open" to all for booking appointments. But right now in New York, 60% of the adult population is eligible, but only about 10% are actually vaccinated. Eligibility will continue to be much greater than actual availability.
Yes, June-July is a pretty good estimate of "finishing" IMO.
I hope so. I do believe 225 million Americans by the end of June is realistic.
So far, we have done 77 million doses. Assuming JNJ completely meets their target of 100 million by June, and every single dose becomes a jab the same month.... That would mean we need a total of 350 million over the next 4 months:
87.5 million jabs per month, about 3 million jabs per day. With the addition of JNJ, I think that's conceivable.
While I *hope* that 68% of the population is enough for herd immunity, it's the low end of the herd immunity estimates. Better chance of reaching herd immunity by July or August, when we would be breaking 80% of the population. And all this assumes no significant vaccine hesitancy.
Figgy1
Premium Member
Data dump?
SamusAranX
Well-Known Member
Well Texas just said hold my beer to Florida.
Mask mandate is rescinded and all businesses can operate at 100% now
Mask mandate is rescinded and all businesses can operate at 100% now
Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
Please, here in Georgia, we haven't had a mask mandate since day 1
GimpYancIent
Well-Known Member
Sure.Please, here in Georgia, we haven't had a mask mandate since day 1
Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
- Status