Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Record highs on wall street and the scary numbers.
What kid of dystopian world are we existing in?

I am perplexed about the wall street numbers. No matter what, companies can't possibly be worth more now than they were before anybody ever heard of COVID. Except, maybe Amazon.

I know the market is somewhat forward looking but the economy is highly unlikely to be stronger a year from now than it was in January. If we're lucky, maybe it gets there in mid 2022.

As I said...they started receiving liquid injection last fall...and got a huge dose to the total of about $7,000,000,000,000 in a 5 month period.

So bread and circuses for everyone!

Why? Housing crash...2007-2010. The fat cat class lost much of their liquid wealth (temporarily - of course)...they would never tolerate it again. You want to talk about “deep state”? This is the real version...”deep market”

Loses in the “free market” will never be tolerated again...until the ship crashes.

And what they did was make their gambling insured..can’t lose. This was a test of how much power can be insured no matter the variables. And they passed their own test and are operating behind Oz’s curtain now.

In what dimension does the “free market” allow near all businesses gain money whether they have operations/customers or not??

Here we are. I’m not saying it’s “rigged”...but it does waddle and quack.

This is kinda the shock doctrine theory on Ivy League steroids.

 

[Jrb1979]

It does seem odd, but this isn’t a standard recession by any standard. I read an analyst report at some point and they estimated over 60% of the economy is either unharmed or slightly positively impacted by Covid. Of the 40% that is negatively impacted a large number of those companies are in the same boat as Disney where the they have very negative short term exposure but it has little impact on their long term prospects. There are a few industries deeply impacted but in some cases there‘s an expectation of government bailouts (airlines) or there are individual companies that are struggling but their loses are offset by gains from other companies doing better. I think there’s also a built in expectation of another round or 2 of stimulus money propping up the market.

While many may have not been negatively impacted by Covid, I think many under estimate how much impact conventions not happening much in the future will do to travel.

I disagree with it having little impact long term projects. While they will be finished someday, Tron and Guardians not opening for a year is not a short term impact. The fact they haven't announced any plans for the 50th says a lot.

 

[Calmdownnow]

Do they invalidate coverage for people who smoke? Coverage for people who eat bad diets? People who take drugs?

I think that the suggestion of invalidated insurance, or the first denial of coverage, would wake up a lot of people and encourage them to comply with health advise whilst the court cases were settled. The country only needs 3 months of people doing what the medics request for the ultimate medical bills to be reduced by 75%. I say go for it, insurance companies even if you think you will ultimately lose in the courts.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

While many may have not been negatively impacted by Covid, I think many under estimate how much impact conventions not happening much in the future will do to travel.

I disagree with it having little impact long term projects. While they will be finished someday, Tron and Guardians not opening for a year is not a short term impact. The fact they haven't announced any plans for the 50th says a lot.

Well now we’ll never know...but that was always a bit of a “D23 red herring”

What they would have done is charge a lot more and put some PR on top of what was really going on: much needed park updates after a huge period of relative stagnation. Comcast became a little too real of a player and there is pressure to exploit all their IP ties/purchases.

“For the 50th” wasn’t what it was played to be. They don’t do these “celebrations” in Orlando anymore. That’s not where they think maximum money is or they wouldn’t have skipped it for 15 years. The new way is the constant festival and upcharge events...it appears.

 

[matt9112]

You described me perfectly during his presidency. Not my cup of tea on some of his policies, but was behind him 110% during 9/11 and had a much deeper appreciation for him as a man. He also respected the office and the respected the other side of the aisle.

I think I just read that Bush, Obama and Clinton will jointly receive the vaccine together to show solidarity and some form of leadership this country needs right now.

Ahhh nothing like the good old patriot act...i mean whats freedom if you cant be safe ?

 

[Chi84]

I think that the suggestion of invalidated insurance, or the first denial of coverage, would wake up a lot of people and encourage them to comply with health advise whilst the court cases were settled. The country only needs 3 months of people doing what the medics request for the ultimate medical bills to be reduced by 75%. I say go for it, insurance companies even if you think you will ultimately lose in the courts.

I’m just taking a guess from your posts that you aren’t talking about the US legal system.

 

[matt9112]

Boy...this thread fell down the well today, didn’t it??

Stop digging?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Stop digging?

I think it went all the way through and you fall all the way to Uranus now

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Again not wearing a tin foil hat but he says some rediculous stuff when a teleprompter isnt there.

Umm... have you heard what President Trump says? Lol

 

[Calmdownnow]

I’m just taking a guess from your posts that you aren’t talking about the US legal system.

No. I don't live in the U.S. So I benefit from an advanced medical health coverage that is not "insurance" based. But, one of the supposed advantages that proponents of insurance based systems have argued is that if there are costs and penalties involved, behaviors can be changed. So if you've argued this for years as a core element of your health care system, call the cards in and say "willfully ignore the best health advice -- the advice we are giving you as we insure your health -- and we will regard you as willfully abrogating the conditions of your insurance". Free market principles -- nothing socialist here.

 

[MisterPenguin]

The issue is not with Florida but why NY and NJ have restrictions on their residents visiting states with lower Covid19 cases than they have, especially states where you spend more time outdoors, than those who visit Pennsylvania. It is clearly more dangerous in Pennsylvania than Florida since Pennsylvania have 54.5% more cases per 100,000 than Florida. The entire quarantine process is a joke and the way it is setup isn't even using science, since anyone can travel between Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey. Use the numbers you want but don't differentiate between states, be consistent. Anyone should be allowed to take a vacation in a state with a lower Covid19 rate than the state they live in, provided they follow safety protocols of 6 feet distancing and mask wearing, which is being enforced at WDW and Universal.

New York's Governor Cuomo has no problem with people traveling between NY, NJ, CT and PA. There is nothing complicated about that. So why is he opposing residents from visiting their own homes in areas with less Covid19? You can say no one should travel, but if I were to visit my condo in Florida where the infection rate is lower than New York. I am forced to quarantine. To make it even worse, I have antibodies and that doesn't matter. Please, have restrictions but make them reasonable and based on science and safety.

The Governors of the tri-state area NJ/NY/CT put out the travel advisory about other states when they got their positivity rate to hover around 1%, but other states were spiking. They set a minimal threshold that when passed, put another state on the 'red list.' At first, it was only about a dozen states on the list, Then 20, Then 30. Then at 40, NJ itself qualified for the red list, then just about all other states.

The exemption for having to quarantine when traveling between the tri-states is because of "The Greater New York City Area" which encompasses three states. The amount of traffic between states is enormous and a quarantine would be tantamount to just shutting down New York City completely.

Anyway, that exemption is thrown out the window along with the list of quarantine states since just about everyone is on the red list. The advise is not to travel at all unless necessary.

 

[carolina_yankee]

Just saw on the news that most hospitals and healthcare workers are looking at December 15th as the day they start seeing increases based on when positive tests and people needed to be admitted.

Start seeing increases or increases peak? I think nearly everybody is seeing increased hospitalizations now. Some areas are expecting to start rationing care in the next couple of weeks.

New Mexico shut down nearly everything to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed by covid. It wasn’t enough.

 

[TXRob]

As I said...they started receiving liquid injection last fall...and got a huge dose to the total of about $7,000,000,000,000 in a 5 month period.

So bread and circuses for everyone!

Why? Housing crash...2007-2010. The fat cat class lost much of their liquid wealth (temporarily - of course)...they would never tolerate it again. You want to talk about “deep state”? This is the real version...”deep market”

Loses in the “free market” will never be tolerated again...until the ship crashes.

And what they did was make their gambling insured..can’t lose. This was a test of how much power can be insured no matter the variables. And they passed their own test and are operating behind Oz’s curtain now.

In what dimension does the “free market” allow near all businesses gain money whether they have operations/customers or not??

Here we are. I’m not saying it’s “rigged”...but it does waddle and quack.

This is kinda the shock doctrine theory on Ivy League steroids.

As I said...they started receiving liquid injection last fall...and got a huge dose to the total of about $7,000,000,000,000 in a 5 month period.

So bread and circuses for everyone!

Why? Housing crash...2007-2010. The fat cat class lost much of their liquid wealth (temporarily - of course)...they would never tolerate it again. You want to talk about “deep state”? This is the real version...”deep market”

Loses in the “free market” will never be tolerated again...until the ship crashes.

And what they did was make their gambling insured..can’t lose. This was a test of how much power can be insured no matter the variables. And they passed their own test and are operating behind Oz’s curtain now.

In what dimension does the “free market” allow near all businesses gain money whether they have operations/customers or not??

Here we are. I’m not saying it’s “rigged”...but it does waddle and quack.

This is kinda the shock doctrine theory on Ivy League steroids.

I’m so sorry this is happening to you. Get help.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Start seeing increases or increases peak? I think nearly everybody is seeing increased hospitalizations now. Some areas are expecting to start rationing care in the next couple of weeks.

New Mexico shut down nearly everything to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed by covid. It wasn’t enough.

Was referring to a doctor talking about the thanksgiving numbers.. it was when they expected, December 15.

 

[GoofGoof]

While many may have not been negatively impacted by Covid, I think many under estimate how much impact conventions not happening much in the future will do to travel.

I disagree with it having little impact long term projects. While they will be finished someday, Tron and Guardians not opening for a year is not a short term impact. The fact they haven't announced any plans for the 50th says a lot.

I said the current situation has little impact on long term prospects of large corporations. I never mentioned projects at WDW. A delay of those projects is a reduction in cash spend so in the eyes of Wall Street its not seen as a big negative. No impact on the stock price. I don’t think any analyst is looking at WDW‘s plans (or lack of plans) for the 50th and reduces the target of the stock price. I don’t disagree that it will take WDW a longer time to fully recover, but that isn’t moving the needle on the stock price too much because it’s not viewed as permanent. So it may be that you are perceiving some long term or permanent negative impact to Disney parks as a result of this pandemic, but the shareholders and analysts that follow the stock don’t seem to agree. The price suggests an expectation of a full recovery in the medium term.

Travel will take a while to get back up to speed. Travel stocks reflect that, but that isn’t enough to move the needle on the stock market. Remember that the Dow Jones Industrial Average which is the most quoted measure of the stock market is only made up of 30 leading blue chip stocks. None are in the travel industry exclusively. So while stocks like Boeing are still down big they are more than offset by gains on Home Depot and Walmart which are retailers that did better during the pandemic and tech stocks like Apple and Microsoft. Chevron is also down but that’s only loosely based on Covid as oil prices are down for other reasons as well. The point is that while travel and restaurants are down that’s not driving the stock market down, especially the Dow. The S&P 500 is more diverse so you start to see airline and hotel companies way down, but they are offset by lots of companies doing great. Lots of restaurants and even resort hotels that are suffering are small businesses that don’t impact the stock market as much. Not having conventions is a back breaker for many small businesses.

Here‘s a tool you can use to see the stocks in the DOW, S&P 500 and others of you are curious what’s up and what’s down:

Dow Jones Stock | Dow Jones Companies | Dow Jones Value | Markets Insider

Get a complete List of all Dow Jones stocks. The values of Dow Jones companies consists live prices and previous close price, as well as daily, 3-, 6- and 1-year performance, charts and many more information.

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[Chi84]

No. I don't live in the U.S. So I benefit from an advanced medical health coverage that is not "insurance" based. But, one of the supposed advantages that proponents of insurance based systems have argued is that if there are costs and penalties involved, behaviors can be changed. So if you've argued this for years as a core element of your health care system, call the cards in and say "willfully ignore the best health advice -- the advice we are giving you as we insure your health -- and we will regard you as willfully abrogating the conditions of your insurance". Free market principles -- nothing socialist here.

I was referring more to your statements about tort law, civil liability and the like. I can understand why Disney hasn't built a theme park in your country

 

[drizgirl]

But, one of the supposed advantages that proponents of insurance based systems have argued is that if there are costs and penalties involved, behaviors can be changed.

That's not true at all.

 

[seascape]

I said the current situation has little impact on long term prospects of large corporations. I never mentioned projects at WDW. A delay of those projects is a reduction in cash spend so in the eyes of Wall Street its not seen as a big negative. No impact on the stock price. I don’t think any analyst is looking at WDW‘s plans (or lack of plans) for the 50th and reduces the target of the stock price. I don’t disagree that it will take WDW a longer time to fully recover, but that isn’t moving the needle on the stock price too much because it’s not viewed as permanent. So it may be that you are perceiving some long term or permanent negative impact to Disney parks as a result of this pandemic, but the shareholders and analysts that follow the stock don’t seem to agree. The price suggests an expectation of a full recovery in the medium term.

Travel will take a while to get back up to speed. Travel stocks reflect that, but that isn’t enough to move the needle on the stock market. Remember that the Dow Jones Industrial Average which is the most quoted measure of the stock market is only made up of 30 leading blue chip stocks. None are in the travel industry exclusively. So while stocks like Boeing are still down big they are more than offset by gains on Home Depot and Walmart which are retailers that did better during the pandemic and tech stocks like Apple and Microsoft. Chevron is also down but that’s only loosely based on Covid as oil prices are down for other reasons as well. The point is that while travel and restaurants are down that’s not driving the stock market down, especially the Dow. The S&P 500 is more diverse so you start to see airline and hotel companies way down, but they are offset by lots of companies doing great. Lots of restaurants and even resort hotels that are suffering are small businesses that don’t impact the stock market as much. Not having conventions is a back breaker for many small businesses.

Here‘s a tool you can use to see the stocks in the DOW, S&P 500 and others of you are curious what’s up and what’s down:

Dow Jones Stock | Dow Jones Companies | Dow Jones Value | Markets Insider

Get a complete List of all Dow Jones stocks. The values of Dow Jones companies consists live prices and previous close price, as well as daily, 3-, 6- and 1-year performance, charts and many more information.

markets.businessinsider.com

The fact that Disney's stock is at an all time high does not mean that the stock price is not being effected by Covid19 and the parks losses. In fact I contend that if the Parks were open and Covid19 had never happened the stock would be between $175 and $180. The Walt Disney Company with the parks back operating at 100% along with the other Division should be s $300 stock in 2023. The profits from the parks are huge but the profits from Direct to Consumer and International is even bigger.

 

[GoofGoof]

The fact that Disney's stock is at an all time high does not mean that the stock price is not being effected by Covid19 and the parks losses. In fact I contend that if the Parks were open and Covid19 had never happened the stock would be between $175 and $180. The Walt Disney Company with the parks back operating at 100% along with the other Division should be s $300 stock in 2023. The profits from the parks are huge but the profits from Direct to Consumer and International is even bigger.

Its hard to say what would be happening without Covid. Disney has the streaming business which is booming now but with everyone home and movie theaters closed would streaming look as good without the pandemic? The parks segment is obviously really down right now, but the stock price is primarily based on future prospects. If analysts expect the parks to get back to profits as usual in a year or 2 then it shouldn’t harm the stock price unless you believe the company doesn’t have the balance sheet to make it through those 2 years. For TWDC they have plenty of cash and access to plenty more at very low cost.

 

[Patcheslee]

When they don't allow the full range of transactions at the window it is.

It's one of the reasons there's a nationwide coin shortage.

I have $1900 in change sitting around because we can't take it in. Usually a big part of our vacation fund.
Also can't get a certified check to pay off my loan because have to make appointment 8am-3pm bank hours M-F only.