Indeed. But it was to be expected with the increase in cases, positivity, and hospitalizations...
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
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willtravel
Well-Known Member
WHAT.....?
CDC considering shortening coronavirus quarantine period | Fox News
This part is confusing to me from article.
Henry Walke, the agency’s incident manager for COVID-19 response, reportedly told the Wall Street Journal that the new guidelines would also include a test to ensure a person is negative for coronavirus before ending quarantine. He said that once the test is negative, the probability of the person going on to develop the infection “is pretty low.”
I was just talking to someone who's daughter had Covid. I asked if she (daughter) would have to get a vaccine. And she said probably. She said daughter was out of the 3 month bubble and she could get Covid again.
CDC considering shortening coronavirus quarantine period | Fox News
This part is confusing to me from article.
Henry Walke, the agency’s incident manager for COVID-19 response, reportedly told the Wall Street Journal that the new guidelines would also include a test to ensure a person is negative for coronavirus before ending quarantine. He said that once the test is negative, the probability of the person going on to develop the infection “is pretty low.”
I was just talking to someone who's daughter had Covid. I asked if she (daughter) would have to get a vaccine. And she said probably. She said daughter was out of the 3 month bubble and she could get Covid again.
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I think this is reacting to a recent study that identifies essentially non-existent live virus shedding after day 9:
COVID-19 most contagious in first 5 days of illness, study finds
That, combined with a negative test for backup, seems to make sense that we could reduce time.
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
that or they need essential workers because a lot of them are getting infected.I think this is reacting to a recent study that identifies essentially non-existent live virus shedding after day 9:
COVID-19 most contagious in first 5 days of illness, study finds
www.cidrap.umn.edu
That, combined with a negative test for backup, seems to make sense that we could reduce time.
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
Its just so bad.
Disney Experience
Well-Known Member
I got the yellow fever vaccine in August this year. Taking it delayed my enrollment into the Phase 3 Pfizer covid vaccine study until first week of September. We were planning on overseas travel and I felt it was the best time to get the Yellow fever vaccine.
The yellow fever vaccine that went through all the studies in the USA to get FDA approval is no longer(or limited?) in production. The vaccine Europe uses is a different Yellow Fever vaccine, newer [and made by the same company I believe]. But not approved by the FDA. So when you get a "yellow fever" vaccination in the USA, you technically enroll in a study and are given the "newer" yellow fever vaccine which there is enough quantity of. I do not think the company wants to make the old vaccine.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
There are various theories on how long immunity lasts. At one point they thought it was a few months. Recently there was a study (out of the UK I think) that said it could be years or decades. If it only lasted three months, I would think there would be a lot of reports of reinfections by now.
I think this is reacting to a recent study that identifies essentially non-existent live virus shedding after day 9:
COVID-19 most contagious in first 5 days of illness, study finds
That, combined with a negative test for backup, seems to make sense that we could reduce time.
Probably part of it. The average incubation period is 5 days and then if it is most contagious for 5 days you get ten days from contact.
Nothing to do with that because the isolation period for somebody who tests positive is already 10 days. Most likely they want people to participate in contact tracing and quarantine when "at risk" and they are finding resistance due to the 14 day guideline being very long, especially when there is a pretty good chance that you aren't infected.
danlb_2000
Premium Member
It's hard to see in those graphs but the daily new cases seems to be flattening out. Could be actually be flattening out, could be running up against testing capacity, might just be an short term slowing, hard to say at this point. Still have a hard time believing that this won't get much worse in the coming weeks.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
Part of it may be people seeking a negative test so they feel better about traveling for the holiday so the negatives are more
True, the line outside CityMD the other day was at least two avenue blocks long. At first, I thought something was up with the train.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
I'm an optimist, so I'm hoping that it is really flattening. Much of Europe followed/is following a similar-looking trend.
That said, I share the concerns over Thanksgiving. Most of the people I work with are taking precautions, but still doing something outside the ordinary regarding seeing people over the long weekend.
This pandemic has shown twice surges last 3ish months, we may just be seeing that play out. However, Thanksgiving will be a huge test of this. Wisconsin was one of the first places to show a surge and take a look at our recent case numbers (reported by date test was taken not date test was reported and from Wisconsin DHS)
To those about to ask, no the graph has not always trailed off like Florida because of incomplete data, that peak has held steady. It seems that things may be improving up here and heres my second bit of proof (this time from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)
I’m much more hopeful then I was two weeks ago, but the next month could very easily quickly reverse course again because of deer hunting season (a huge event up here) and Thanksgiving. The vaccine cannot come soon enough.
To those about to ask, no the graph has not always trailed off like Florida because of incomplete data, that peak has held steady. It seems that things may be improving up here and heres my second bit of proof (this time from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)
I’m much more hopeful then I was two weeks ago, but the next month could very easily quickly reverse course again because of deer hunting season (a huge event up here) and Thanksgiving. The vaccine cannot come soon enough.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I think we will have the typical 3 month arc we’ve seen. Europe started a month or 6 weeks earlier than us so we are a little behind. The one thing that is different is that in some of the US today there has been no attempt to pull back like we did in the Spring in the NE and summer in the sun belt. Europe dialed back activity this time around. France went into a version of stay at home (kept schools open and essential businesses but closed bars) and it has worked to really drive down cases. We are starting to see the benefit in some of the Midwest hotspots of mask rules and pull backs on activity but I’m interested to see if areas that haven’t pulled back will see a longer arc and of course Thanksgiving and Christmas/NYE aren’t going to help.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
More research on the effectiveness of masks:
www.yahoo.com
Im sure this will trigger the armchair epidemiologists who keep insisting they know masks are ineffective. It’s good that research continues to help us understand what works and what doesn‘t. Increasing knowledge is always a good thing.
Study: A good cloth mask is a powerful weapon against the coronavirus
Face coverings, including masks made of cloth, are highly effective in protecting the people who wear them and those around them, according to a new study.
Im sure this will trigger the armchair epidemiologists who keep insisting they know masks are ineffective. It’s good that research continues to help us understand what works and what doesn‘t. Increasing knowledge is always a good thing.
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
Are you referring to the “ magic masks” again?More research on the effectiveness of masks:
Study: A good cloth mask is a powerful weapon against the coronavirus
Face coverings, including masks made of cloth, are highly effective in protecting the people who wear them and those around them, according to a new study.
Im sure this will trigger the armchair epidemiologists who keep insisting they know masks are ineffective. It’s good that research continues to help us understand what works and what doesn‘t. Increasing knowledge is always a good thing.
So many epidemiologists and economists who sprang up this year out of nowhere.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
I think we're all armchair epidemiologists these days... I'm a ChemE by training and practice and I know I've read a lot more articles on disease transmission this year than I have on engineering.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Yep, certainly learned much more than I ever wanted to in the past 9 months. I fully admit I am no expert which is why I defer to the actual experts doing this type of research.I think we're all armchair epidemiologists these days... I'm a ChemE by training and practice and I know I've read a lot more articles on disease transmission this year than I have on engineering.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
More research on the effectiveness of masks:
Study: A good cloth mask is a powerful weapon against the coronavirus
Face coverings, including masks made of cloth, are highly effective in protecting the people who wear them and those around them, according to a new study.
Im sure this will trigger the armchair epidemiologists who keep insisting they know masks are ineffective. It’s good that research continues to help us understand what works and what doesn‘t. Increasing knowledge is always a good thing.
Yes, science changes, this is from March, blah, blah, blah. My point in posting is that this is the "most respected expert" speaking very confidently and definitely and essentially dismissing the effectiveness.
This one study doesn't prove or disprove anything other than what sized droplets are filtered by various materials. Evidence of case numbers from places with mask mandates would argue that they aren't very effective. Through Florida's summer spike, the worst performing counties had mask mandates.
The only way to really have scientific proof would be two similar places with similar population density and demographics and starting point for cases per day where they all have the exact same measures in place except everybody in one place wears cloth face coverings and nobody does in the other and see what the data shows.
I ask again, if they work so well (and this study says they work REALLY well), then why can't I be in a full stadium or arena as long as everybody wears one? Or, why do I have to quarantine for 14 days if I enter PA if I have to wear a mask (even outdoors) the whole time I'm there anyway?
Jrb1979
Well-Known Member
They do work well but masks only go so far. Adding in social distancing and avoiding unnecessary travel makes it work better.
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